Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

A proposito del bond centenario austriaco ...

As the following chart shows, for the second of the two 100-year Austrian
government bonds issued to date, with a coupon of a measly 0.850% and an issue
yield of 0.880%, the investment has been anything but a good one so far. As a
reminder, this bond, with a volume of EUR 2bn, was oversubscribed 12 times (!!!)
when it was issued in 2020, not so long ago.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

We have compared the most important inflation-sensitive asset classes below, including their advantages and disadvantages.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Most recently, Bitcoin has tended to show a high correlation with technology stocks, which, as mentioned above, tend to suffer from rising inflation.

Nevertheless, one should not only look at the correlations in this respect but also keep an eye on the relative performance of the assets.
The Bitcoin/Nasdaq ratio shows that Bitcoin has significantly outperformed Nasdaq over time. Against this backdrop, a certain admixture of Bitcoin with other inflation-sensitive assets seems consistently advisable in a balanced portfolio.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

 

[portfolioafterlife]

5x in 15 anni.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Bitcoin and gold are particularly similar. In both cases, the future
development of the money supply is highly predictable. In contrast, fiat currencies
are constantly inflated under normal circumstances; in times of crisis, inflation
often increases by leaps and bounds.

Measured in annual standard deviation, gold’s volatility is around 15-
20% p.a., while Bitcoin’s is between 60 and 100%. Bitcoin holders are currently
feeling the high volatility of Bitcoin again on the markets. Historically, the
drawdowns from the all-time highs have been over 80% several times.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Taking a longer-term view of Bitcoin, it appears that we are still in the early stages of the adoption curve and that there is much more potential.

Global adoption numbers are extremely difficult to measure, but are estimated to be between 1% and 2% in 2022.

If adoption continues to follow the S-curve model and takes into account the limited supply of Bitcoin, price is the only other variable that could move to meet increasing demand.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Fare previsioni è difficile, comunque ...

 

[portfolioafterlife]

I margini operativi delle azioni che estraggono metalli preziosi sono interessanti, ma potrebbero essere in parte inficiati dalll'inflazione rampante (aumento costo energia, salari, attrezzature ... ).

Should the gold price remain robust in 2022, gold mining companies should continue to achieve record high margins despite further pressure from ongoing cost inflation.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

The HUI/gold ratio indicates that gold stocks have been trading one standard deviation below the mean for 9 years now. Also based on this indicator, gold stocks appear to be undervalued.