Journal to portfolio afterlife

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Da un lato rallentamento economico, recessione e panico, dall'altro pochi investimenti nel settore energia fossile, domanda inelastica, scorte strategiche Usa ai minimi termini, opec+ non intenzionata a mollare l'osso. Vedremo.

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He finds that the market hit its low “an average of 57 days prior to the end of the Fed’s rate-hike cycle — about two months.” Good to know, but keep in mind that “there is quite a range, from no lead time at one extreme to almost the entire six-month window on which I focused. Given that it’s hard to know when the Fed will actually begin to pivot, this wide range illustrates the uncertainty and risk associated with trying to reinvest in stocks in anticipation of a pivot.”

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Low bond yields present an obvious challenge for investors. While there is significant evidence documenting that stocks have outperformed bonds historically, i.e., the realized equity risk premium (ERP) is positive, there is less research exploring how stocks performed in different bond yield environments on a forward-looking basis (i.e., the expected ERP). This article summarizes some forthcoming research exploring this effect.

 

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