Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa

[lorenzo63]

22/07/2008 Biocarburanti: MARK.

Una notizia molto importante per la chimica europea e che sta avendo un risalto piuttosto ampio sulla stampa internazionale in questi giorni riguarda le tecnologie di produzione di etanolo dai rifiuti organici.

Tali tecnologie utilizzano dunque per la produzione di biocarburante una materia prima che non pone problemi etici e politici (come è invece per il mais e per altre colture agricole).

Ebbene, terminata la fase sperimentale e allestito un piccolo impianto pilota che genera 150.000 litri di etanolo da rifiuti organici per la messa a punto dei processi produttivi, oggi il detentore della tecnologia - uno degli issuer monitorati sul 3D, ossia Ineos - si accinge nei prossimi 3 - 4 mesi a siglare accordi con le municipalità e con i produttori industriali che hanno come scarto di lavorazione rifiuti organici.

Seguirà la realizzazione di un impianto da 100.000 - 150.000 tonnellate di etanolo annue entro fine 2010 - inizio 2011.

I costi di produzione risulterebbero competitivi rispetto ad altre modalità di produzione dell'etanolo e l'abbattimento di gas serra ottenuto mediante l'etanolo realizzato per questa via rispetto alla combustione del petrolio sarebbe pari al 90%.

La tecnologia dovrebbe aiutare al raggiungimento dell'obiettivo comunitario di sostituire il 10% del carburante per autovetture in uso con etanolo entro il 2020.

Vedremo cosa ne verrà... dal FT online

Municipal waste to produce ethanol by 2011
By Ed Crooks, Energy Editor

Published: July 21 2008 03:00 | Last updated: July 21 2008 03:00

The world's first commercially produced ethanol from municipal waste will be on sale by early 2011, according to Ineos, the privately-held chemicals group backing the technology.

Ethanol production from waste can avoid problems associated with today's biofuels, such as competition for food crops and agricultural land. But the quantity of waste available is likely to mean that only a limited proportion of fuel demand can be met by this method.

Ineos hopes to have deals for the first commercial-scale plants producing ethanol from waste signed up "in the next three or four months", according to Peter Williams, chief executive of its renewables business.

Cities are likely to be the first partners to sign up, although industries that produce high volumes of organic waste are interested.

Ineos has been working with Bioengineering Resources Inc, a biotech company based in Fayetteville, Arkansas, which has been developing the process.

BRI has been running a very small demonstration plant, capable of producing about 150,000 litres of ethanol a year in Fayetteville. Ineos believes the process is ready to be scaled up to plants producing about 100,000-150,000 tonnes per year. A tonne of ethanol is roughly 1,250 litres.

The process works by taking organic waste, converting it into a gas and feeding the gases to bacteria that convert them to ethanol.

Several companies are pursuing similar technologies. General Motors is backing Coskata, an Illinois-based company seeking to produce ethanol from organic wastes.

But Ineos expects that its plants will be the first able to use municipal waste as a feedstock when they come on stream, it hopes, in late 2010 or early 2011.

The costs of the process "stack up very well, and are cost competitive against any other approach to producing ethanol," Mr Williams said. Two studies have suggested it saves 90 per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions produced by conventional petrol.

The logistics of securing waste to produce large volumes of fuel are challenging. It takes one dry tonne of organic waste to produce 400 litres of ethanol, Ineos says.

The European Union creates about 65m tonnes of organic municipal waste a year; enough to produce about 12m tonnes of ethanol.

The EU's target is to get to 10 per cent of its road fuel coming from biofuels by 2020. The market for petrol, which can be substituted by ethanol, is about 100m tonnes a year, suggesting a demand for ethanol of 10m tonnes per year, up from the 3m tonnes supplied today.

That implies that, relying on the Ineos process alone, more than half of all the EU's organic municipal waste would have to be used for fuel to meet the target.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

 

[lorenzo63]

22/07/2008 Cognis

Fra le aziende chimiche issuer di bond Hy maggiormente seguite c'è senz'altro Cognis.

Pur schiacciata da un livello di indebitamento decisamente elevato e con una generazione di cash flow ridotta rispetto alle esigenze di servizio del debito, Cognis ha dimostrato di avere al proprio arco alcune frecce: la presenza in nicchie della chimica delle specialità nelle quali riesce ad esprimere un buon pricing (non incontrando - ad oggi - grandi difficoltà nel passare ai clienti gli incrementi dei costi produttivi); il fatto che buona parte delle materie prime da essa adoperate non siano generate dai processi di lavorazione del petrolio (e dunque non abbiano risentito dei forti incrementi di prezzo legati all'andamento dei corsi dell'oil negli ultimi anni); una buona disponibilità di asset dismissibili e la capacità di valorizzarli nel dismetterli, focalizzando sulla parte più profittevole del business (chimica per la cosmetica, il wellness, il nutrizionismo).

E' recente la notizia della cessione della società del gruppo (nata dallo spin off di una divisione operata nel 2007) attiva nel segmento della chimica per la pelletteria ed il tessile.

Qui il comunicato stampa della stessa Cognis sulla vicenda.

Cognis to sell its Pulcra Chemicals to Fashion Chemicals GmbH
July 15, 2008 (Germany)

Specialty chemicals supplier Cognis has signed an agreement to sell its Pulcra Chemicals subsidiary to Germany based Fashion Chemicals GmbH & Co. KG for 26.3 million euros. The sale is in line with Cognis’ strategy of focusing on its core businesses driven by the wellness and sustainability trends. Agreements respecting the transfer of the business and related transactions were signed in Düsseldorf, Germany.

Cognis will sell its Pulcra Chemicals subsidiary to Fashion Chemicals GmbH & Co. KG (“Fashion Chemicals”), an investor backed mainly by DSD Deri Sanayicileri Dis Ticaret A.S (“DSD”), based in Istanbul, Turkey, an organization with excellent connections within the leather goods industry. The stakeholders of DSD include leading tanneries and leather manufacturers.

The cash proceeds from the transaction will amount to 26.3 million euros. Approximately 9 percent of the cash proceeds will be financed by members of Pulcra Chemical’s senior management team. Fashion Chemicals additionally took over 15 million euros of financial liabilities (including debts and pensions). The final transaction is subject to usual closing conditions including regulatory approvals and is expected to be completed by the end of October 2008.

Pulcra Chemicals, which supplies process chemicals to the textile and leather industries, was previously the Process Chemicals strategic business unit (SBU) of Cognis. The SBU was carved out into separate legal entities on July 1, 2007, and renamed Pulcra Chemicals. Pulcra operates production sites and service centers in Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Spain, Turkey and the USA. In 2007, Pulcra Chemicals reported external sales of 246 million euros.

Antonio Trius, CEO of Cognis, comments: “We are sure that Fashion Chemicals supported by DSD with its deep understanding of market requirements is an excellent fit and will help Pulcra Chemicals to develop its business successfully as well as safeguard its long-term competitiveness. This transaction will enable Cognis to consistently focus on its innovation-driven growth markets of wellness and sustainability.”

“We are delighted to gain an investor to support us on building up our core business,” says Yusuf Aktalay, CEO of Pulcra Chemicals and CEO-designate of Fashion Chemicals GmbH & Co KG. “With over 125 years of experience, we have an in-depth knowledge of both the regulatory environment in our key markets and also the prevailing trends relating to health and safety, ecological sustainability and wear comfort. We are therefore well placed for operational success as we move forward.”

Cognis GmbH

 

[lorenzo63]

Outlook su Evonik Degussa 24/07/2008 MARK

Arriva l'innalzamento dell'outlook su Evonik Degoussa da parte di Moody's. il rating è ora Baa3/stable (da negative) sui bond senior unsecured.

Il successo della ristrutturazione condotta nell'ultimo biennio, con il passaggio da produzioni chimiche prevalentemente cicliche ad altre a minore ciclicità e caratterizzate da un maggiore pricing power da parte del produttore, la buona capacità di generazione di cash flow evidenziata negli ultimi anni, la completa separazione del gruppo delle attività connesse all'estrazione carbonifera (attività sovvenzionate, ma soggette ad una revisione crescentemente sfavorevole degli incentivi da parte del legislatore tedesco) fra le cause della revisione dell'outlook.

Valutati in chiave prospettica i fattori di debolezza e quelli di forza della performance attesa di Evonik Degoussa, Moody's si attende una certa stabilità del rating ed outlook attuale nel prossimo futuro.

Ricca di indicazioni di dettaglio interessanti il commento alla rating action, che posto integralmente...

Moody's revises Evonik Degussa's outlook to stable from negative

Approximately EUR1.25 billion of rated debt securities affected
London, 24 July 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook on the Baa3/P-3 senior unsecured ratings of Evonik Degussa GmbH.("Evonik Degussa") to stable from negative.

Moody's said that the revision of Evonik Degussa's outlook to stable reflects its improved financial risk profile following the successful separation of RAG's hard coal mining activities from the industrial activities of its 100% owner Evonik Industries in parallel with the material reduction in the group's consolidated debt and recovery in credit metrics achieved over the past two years.

The new legislation passed by the German parliament at the end of 2007, which provides the financing for the phasing out of the subsidised hard-coal mining industry in the period through 2018, has allowed the dissolution of the joint liability arrangement between RAG AG and Evonik Industries. This, in turn, has removed any exposure of Evonik Industries to future mining-related legacy liabilities.

At the same time, Evonik Industries's financial profile has benefited from some improvement in operating cash flow generation reflecting the robust underlying performances posted by all three of its business units, including Evonik Degussa despite significant raw material cost inflation. This together with EUR1.3 billion in proceeds raised from the disposal of various assets including the DBT mining technology, Saar Ferngas gas distribution and Ruetgers tar refining businesses have enabled Evonik Industries to reduce debt and improve its credit metrics. Given Evonik Degussa's full integration within Evonik Industries's finance and cash management, this in turn reduces the likelihood of any undue pressure coming to bear on the financial position of the chemicals group.

On a more cautious note, Moody's notes that high restructuring-related cash outlays will constrain Evonik Industries's cash flow generation in 2008 and leave its cash-flow metrics weakly positioned for the Baa3 rating. In addition, the adoption of a high dividend payout close to 50% of net profit following the sale of a blocking 25.1% stake in Evonik Industries to CVC by its foundation-owner combined with increased capex, as the group completes some major chemicals and power projects, is likely to prevent any further debt reduction in the near to intermediate term.

However, the revision of the outlook to stable is predicated on Moody's expectation that the continuing solid operating performance of the group's three businesses supported by recent restructuring action and an ongoing focus on cost efficiency as well as additional contributions from new investments due to come on stream in the coming years, will help underpin Evonik Industries' operating cash flow generation and lead to some further recovery in its adjusted credit metrics with Net Debt to EBITDA falling to around 3 times and RCF to Net Debt recovering into the high teens.

Evonik Degussa's Baa3 rating also reflects its position as a leading global specialty and intermediate chemicals group with a substantial number of top three global market positions; a broad product, geography, and customer end-market diversification; a high degree of backward integration in some product areas providing for a competitive cost position; and success in transforming and restructuring the group to a less-cyclical, more specialty chemicals-end company. Robust operating cash flow generation has allowed Evonik Degussa to remain free cash flow positive post investments in recent years. Going forward, despite persistent raw material cost inflation and some contrasting performances across the portfolio, Moody's expects Evonik Degussa's operating results to show resilience helped by the superior ability of some of its businesses to pass on price increases that results from either favourable market conditions (e.g. feed additives) or contractual terms (e.g. C4-chemistry).

Headquartered in Essen, Germany, Evonik Degussa is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Evonik Industries AG and a leading global specialty and intermediate chemicals group with sales of EUR10.9 billion in 2007.

 

[lorenzo63]

7/08/2008 -Martk:Trimestrale RHODIA

Buona la recente trimestrale di Rhodia, che evidenzia soprattutto una capacità di pricing non comune a molti altri players della chimica delle specialità. Significativo l'incremento dei prezzi (in misura superiore all'8%) che i francesi sono riusciti a far passare nel Q2/2008, tale da coprire più che abbondantemente l'incremento dei costi energetici e di materie prime subito dalla società.

Rhodia confida di riuscire a conservare questo pricing power anche nel prosieguo del 2008 e di riuscire a proteggere i propri margini da ulteriori risalite dei costi delle materie prime...

Difficile tuttavia pensare che la società riesca a non pagare dazio (anche in termini di capacità di fare il prezzo) al ciclo discendente della chimica atteso a partire dal prossimo anno.

Per ora cmq viene la reiterazione di un target per l'EBITDA in linea con quello del 2007 e la società parrebbe potercela fare a centrare l'obiettivo.

Rhodia Gains Most in Four Years After Profit Report (Update1)

By Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Rhodia SA, France's biggest specialty-chemicals maker, rose the most in almost four years in Paris trading after second-quarter profit beat analysts' estimates.

Rhodia rose 1.92 euros, or 18 percent, to 12.38 euros, the sharpest increase since October 2004. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization climbed to 187 million euros ($291 million), beating an analyst estimate of 177 million euros.

Rhodia, whose products include diphenols used by the food industry to create vanilla flavor, increased selling prices by 8.1 percent in the second quarter, more than offsetting a 78 million-euro increase in energy and raw-materials prices. The French company has almost finished a revamping plan started after an acquisition spree led to 3 billion euros of losses in five years through 2005.

``The results are positive news,'' said Clement Celerier, an analyst at Natixis in Paris who rates the company ``buy.'' ``The company succeeded in passing rising raw materials costs onto customers and confirmed its guidance for the year.''

Rhodia shares have fallen 53 percent this year after the company on Feb. 28 scrapped its previous profit forecast, citing skyrocketing costs for materials such as natural gas and benzene. Currency effects may cut full-year earnings by 100 million euros, Clamadieu said May 7.

``These results highlight the company's pricing power and ability to protect its margins in a difficult environment,'' Rhodia Chief Executive Officer Jean-Pierre Clamadieu said today in a conference call.

Cheuvreux analyst Geoffroy Stern today upgraded the stock to ``outperform'' from ``underperform'' on ``very strong'' second-quarter earnings.

Rhodia's CEO said he's confident the company will continue to raise prices this year to protect profit margins even as energy and raw materials costs may rise by more than 300 million euros this year, ``an amount that's unprecedented in Rhodia's history.''

The company confirmed its full-year targets of EBITDA close to the one reported in 2007 and higher earnings-per-share.

``Rhodia is able to keep its head above water and this is welcomed by the market,'' said Matthieu Bordeaux-Groult, a fund manager at Richelieu Finance in Paris, which oversees $6.2 billion.


Ps: aggiungo su Rhodia il link al report di jyske (i danesi sono, come di consueto, molto ottimisti, aggiungerei un po' più di cautela...

)

http://www.jyskebank.dk/_jb/commonin...rhodiaq208.pdf

 

[lorenzo63]

trimestrale di Ciba Mark, 20/8/2008

Arrivata la trimestrale di Ciba, i conti si rivelano assai poco buoni. D'altronde, con un prezzo del petrolio stimato da Ciba, ai fini del calcolo dei costi di approvvigionamento delle proprie materie prime, fra 95 e 100 $ al barile, ed i prezzi dell'oil arrivati dove sappiamo, la circostanza non giunge del tutto sorprendente. Altro fattore penalizzante già in precedenza, ed ancora in questa trimestrale, è la debolezza del dollaro contro il CHF, valuta contabile di Ciba.

Ciba continua pertanto ad incontrare serie difficoltà a girare alla clientela la crescita dei costi delle materie prime.

L'utile operativo risulta ridotto al 3,5% del valore delle vendite (contro oltre l'8% di un anno fa) ed il fatturato in calo del 7%. Ciba ha inoltre effettuato svalutazioni sulla propria divisione di produzione di addittivi per il trattamento delle acque e per la lavorazione della carta per poco meno di 600 mln CHF, con modalità che non hanno convinto gli analisti (cancellazione del goodwill su di una acquisizione effettuata nel 1998 e che costituisce una larga parte delle attività ricomprese nella divisione produttiva di cui sopra).

Ciba è intenzionata a dismettere una parte di questo business e ad effettuare acquisizioni nel comparto dei coloranti chimici per l'industria, una nicchia in cui già detiene posizioni di leadership a livello globale. Una strategia che, come si vedrà, viene ritenuta efficiente ma la cui attuazione rischia di indebolire ulteriormente il profilo finanziario della società.

Un commento, decisamente critico, del FT:

Ciba braces for further cuts
By Haig Simonian in Zurich

Published: August 20 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 20 2008 03:00

Ciba prepared employees and investors for further pain yesterday, as the Swiss specialty chemicals maker plunged into loss after sharply weaker margins and huge impairment charges.

The Basel-based group, in almost permanent restructuring in recent years, warned of cuts ahead with the potential sales of its struggling paper and publication inks activities. The moves came alongside a one- off SFr595m goodwill impairment in water and paper treatment, pushing the group into a SFr569m ($521m) net first half loss. Sales fell by 7 per cent to SFr3.09bn.

The scale of task facing Ciba, and many other European counterparts such as cross-town Clariant, was highlighted in the second quarter, when surging raw materials and energy costs prompted a SFr11m loss, even excluding impairment. Including the latter, Ciba lost SFr606m, compared with a modest net SFr27m profit in the same period last year and analysts' expectations of a SFr42m gain this time.

"Even though further strategic options are under evaluation, the company is still facing strong headwinds and has to achieve a turn around in difficult times," noted Oskar Schenker at Sarasin, the Swiss private bank.

"We expect demand to weaken further in the coming months, particularly in Europe, but also in Asia, and therefore believe the group's guidance is too optimistic," added Martin Flückiger at Helvea, the Swiss brokerage.

Ciba blamed its problems on its inability to pass higher costs to customers, many enjoying long-term contracts. The impairment charge was ascribed to rapid changes in the paper industry, especially a structural shift in growth to Asia.

In spite of a new business model for paper last year, Ciba said it had not been possible to counter the difficult conditions. It also blamed about two-thirds of the charge on Allied Colloids, the UK manufacturer bought for £1.42bn ($2.65bn) in 1998.

While acknowledging higher costs and shifting market conditions, analysts remained unforgiving. Many said yesterday's figures highlighted an endemic lethargy, as seen in the belated sale in 2006 of Ciba's textile effects division in the face of a sharp but predictable shift in production to Asia. Ascribing the impairment charge largely to a 10-year-old takeover was also dismissed.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

Conseguenze S&P

La debolezza dei risultati di Ciba ha generato un downgrade da parte di S&P, che pertanto ratea la società svizzera BBB-, ai margini dell'IG, con outlook negativo.

La difficoltà nel passare la crescita dei costi alla clientela e i rapporti di cambio sfavorevoli sono cause primarie nell'indebolimento della profittevolezza di Ciba e della sua capacità di generazione di cash flow, insieme ad un politica di dividendi che S&P reputa, nelle condizioni attuali, eccessivamente generosa.

L'outlook negativo trova ragione d'essere soprattutto nella politica attesa nei prossimi trimestri, con la dismissione di taluni asset e l'acquisizione di altri nel segmento di business a più forte pricing power, che vede già oggi Ciba riuscire a passare con successo gli incrementi di costi da materie prime sulla propria clientela.

Tale strategia, se nel lungo periodo potrebbe rivelarsi supportiva del profilo di business di Ciba o addirittura positiva, nel breve porta con sé il rischio di un ulteriore deterioramento del profilo creditizio della società.

Ciba Holding Inc. L-T Rating Cut To 'BBB-' On Lower Profitability; Outlook Negative

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 20, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Switzerland-based specialty chemicals producer Ciba Holding Inc. to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The 'A-3' short-term rating was affirmed. The outlook is negative.

"The downgrade and negative outlook reflects a significant deterioration in Ciba's profitability and cash flow generation, which has accelerated significantly in the first half of 2008, as well as the company's continuously shareholder-friendly dividend policy," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock. "Furthermore, the company announced significant strategic portfolio changes and a focus on growth, including acquisitions, in the coming years, which could lead to a further deterioration in credit quality."

In second-quarter 2008, Ciba was still unable to increase its selling prices to offset steeply increasing raw material costs. The company also suffered from its assets mismatch and a significantly negative currency effect. Operating income dropped by 61%, with an especially weak performance in Plastic Additives and Water and Paper Chemicals divisions.

The significant portfolio changes planned by Ciba over coming quarters include a likely sale of its paper and publication ink business, an expansion in plastic additives in the Middle East through a joint venture, and bolt-on acquisitions in its coating effects business. These transactions are expected to support our business risk assessment of Ciba, and could be even positive. However, the process likely to be costly and to have a negative impact on Ciba's balance-sheet strength in the short to medium term given the currently modest business outlook.

The ratings on Ciba reflect the group's established position as a world-leading producer of additives for plastics and a leading producer of pigments, coating additives, water-treatment chemicals, and chemicals for the paper industry. Ciba therefore enjoys strong regional and product diversification, as well as economies of scale in research and development, marketing, and distribution, which partly offset the cyclical end markets and competitive nature of the industry. The ratings also reflect the company's intermediate financial risk profile.

"The negative outlook reflects the risk that Ciba's operating performance will continue to be weak and the new strategic plan could further weaken the company's balance sheet and credit protection ratios in the short to medium term so that it fails to achieve adequate levels for the 'BBB-' rating," said Mr. Mock. Ciba needs funds from operations to debt of about 30% and debt to EBITDA of below 3x to maintain the 'BBB-' rating.

 

[lorenzo63]

Mark 26/08/2008: Moody's eleva l'outlook di Air Liquide

Originalmente inviato da i98mark
Lo vedo come sostanzialmente privo di rischio, per emittente e per durata, così come anche in bond di emittenti della chimica come Du Pont, Basf, Air Liquide...

Non che non siano soggetti alla ciclicità della chimica come comparto (con prospettive negative, di downturn, proprio nella fase della cogiuntura attuale), ma sono società per le quali ciò si tradurrà in una compressione degli utili, senza arrecare particolari problemi ai bondholders...
Moody's eleva l'outlook di Air Liquide. Giocano a favore della scelta sia fattori compartimentali (un forecast positivo sul settore degli industrial gases, spesso contraddistinto da dinamiche autonome rispetto a quelle più generali della chimica come compartimento), sia l'indirizzo del management di Air Liquide di adottare scelte conservative in ordine al CAPEX nei prossimi anni ed elevare i livelli di liquidità disponibili in relazione all'indebitamento netto.

Moody's changes the outlook for Air Liquide to stable

Approximately EUR 370 Million of short-term debt Affected

Frankfurt, August 21, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook for the Prime-1 short-term rating of Air Liquide S.A. and the Prime-1 rating of Air Liquide U.S. LLC (guaranteed by Air Liquide S.A.) to stable from negative.

Oliver Giani, Vice President -- Senior Analyst and the lead analyst at Moody's for the European Industrial Gases sector said: "Air Liquide's interim report shows that the company is well on track achieving the targets of its "ALMA"-programme which strives for increased capital productivity, cost efficiency and enhanced growth.

Against this background and considering Moody's positive outlook for the industrial gases industry combined with the company's excellent liquidity, Moody's has moved the outlook to stable. Furthermore, Moody's expects that Air Liquide will be able to make good progress towards achieving key credit metrics in line with the Prime-1 rating category by the end of financial year 2009."

Air Liquide has an strong liquidity profile, reflected by the group's strong gross cash flow generation, large cash balance and high quality backstop facilities, including a $1.1 billion revolver with no restrictive financial covenants and no requirements to make a representation that there has been no material adverse change prior to any borrowing.

The company has three commercial paper (CP) programmes - a US$1.5 billion US-CP program and two French Billets de Trésorerie programmes totalling EUR 6 billion. The issuing entities are Air Liquide S.A. and Air Liquide Finance for the French CP programmes (EUR 3 billion each, used alternately) and Air Liquide US LLC for the US CP programme. Both Air Liquide Finance and Air Liquide US LLC carry an unconditional, irrevocable guarantee from the parent company, Air Liquide S.A.

The increase in gearing following the company's decision to implement a new strategy for value creation and growth in 2007 with a substantially increased capital expenditure volume and after spending €534 million on share repurchases resulted in a temporary weakening of cash flow leverage.

The ratio of retained cash flow to net debt fell to 24.9% at fiscal year end 2007 against an expectation of at least around 30% for a solid Prime-1 rating. This currently leaves the rating weakly positioned. However, Moody's takes comfort in management's determination to defend the P-1 rating and to improve key credit metrics commensurate with a more solidly positioned P-1 rating, for which Moody's expects retained cash flow to net debt levels to hover around 30%.

Over the next 18 months we expect Air Liquide to achieve levels of around 27-28% in this key debt protection metric and to continue on an upside trajectory beyond that point to reach 30% in the ensuing years.

In order to maintain this rating, Moody's would also expect the EBITDA margin notably above 20% and return on assets above 10%. These ratios include Moody's Standard Adjustments to Financial Statements. Should Air Liquide fall materially behind this expectation, rating pressure might reoccur. Likewise, any increased shareholder orientation beyond Moody's expectations or a deterioration of liquidity could be negative for the rating.

Moody's last rating action for Air Liquide was on 17 April 2007 when Moody's changed the outlook to negative following the company's announcement of the acquisition of Lurgi's plant engineering activities from GEA Group AG in the light of the company's decision to implement a strategy for growth with increased gearing.

The following ratings have been affected:

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Air Liquide S.A.

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

..Issuer: Air Liquide U.S. LLC

....Outlook, Changed To Stable From Negative

Headquartered in Paris, France, Air Liquide is one of the world's leading industrial gas companies, generating revenues of €11.8 billion in FY 2007 and employing more than 40,000 people at the end of December 2007. Air Liquide operates in over 70 countries through its business areas Gases and Services for Industrial Merchant, Large Industries, Healthcare and Electronics, (accounting for 85% of total Group sales in 2007) that together comprise a wide range of applications, such as air gases, specialty gases and homecare and medical gases and Related activities consisting of Welding/cutting equipment and products, Engineering and Construction, Diving, and Specialty Chemicals.

 

[lorenzo63]

15/09/2008 + 19/9/2008, MarkASF si compra Ciba e reazioni

Originalmente inviato da i98mark
Ho il Ciba 2018 e sono decisamente sotto rispetto al prezzo di acquisto... peraltro è il bond più lungo che ho ... non avevo pensato che il petrolio sarebbe arrivato alle quote attuali e, questo autunno, ne ho prese un po' allettato dal discreto rendimento.

Adesso va tenuto d'occhio il rating, passibile di un ulteriore indebolimento specie se dovessero dismettere le attività non o poco profittevoli ad un prezzo inferiore rispetto a quello di acquisto.

Stanno cmq riuscendo a gestirsi ancora decorosamente - visto che i programmi di taglio dei costi, pur avendo ad oggi ottenuto i 2/3 soltanto dei risultati pianificati, hanno cmq dato una mano - e, se la situazione dell'oil dovesse ulteriormente peggiorare, credo saranno acquisiti da qualche azienda di maggiori dimensioni.

La chimica ha cmq già imboccato il sentiero di un downturn, specie quella legata ai prodotti petroliferi, il che sconsiglia esposizioni in questo comparto se non in un'ottica speculativa.

Sinceramente oggi come oggi comprerei sulla debolezza soltanto qualcosa delle società più solide (Basf, Air Liquide) verificando il premio in rendimento su società di pari rating di altri comparti con minori problemi.

Puntate su altri bond anche ai margini dell'IG vanno concepiti solo in un'ottica speculativa, e bond come quello della Ineos, il Cognis, il Rhodia o altri di cui si è più volte parlato sono a forte rischio default e non di rado a basso recovery rating, quindi ci andrei stracauto....

BASF si compra Ciba. I bondisti si sentono anche qui decisamente più sollevati: sebbene l'acquisto non avvenga per incorporazione, non sembrano esservi ragioni per ritenere che Ciba non godrà, come normalmente accade, del supporto parentale di BASF.

BASF buys Swiss specialty chemicals maker Ciba

BASF, the world's largest chemicals company, said Monday that it had agreed to buy Ciba in a transaction valued at $5.5 billion to expand in specialty products.

The deal worth 6.1 billion Swiss francs involves BASF paying 50 francs in cash for each Ciba share, 32 percent more than the closing price Friday, BASF which is based in Ludwigshafen, Germany, said in a statement to today.

The chief executive of BASF, Juergen Hambrecht, has shifted the German company toward businesses which are less tied to economic swings. BASF purchased Engelhard, the U.S.-based inventor of the catalytic converter, in 2006. Ciba, based in Basel, Switzerland, will add plastics, coatings and water-treatment products to BASF's range of specialized chemicals, the German company said.

"With the acquisition of Ciba, BASF is strengthening its portfolio and expanding its leading position in specialty chemicals with products and services for a variety of customer industries," BASF said.

Goldman Sachs analysts had downgraded Ciba stock Friday, saying the Swiss chemicals maker faced "significant" challenges from high raw-materials prices and competition from low-cost producers.

Ciba transforms crude oil derivatives like ethylene into pigments, plastic additives and dyes. The company is the world's biggest maker of colors for plastics.

Shares of the Swiss company have slumped about two-thirds under the tenure of Armin Meyer as chief executive and chairman. The company has faced falling margins as struggled to pass on higher oil-derived raw material costs to customers. The price of crude oil increased to a record of more than $145 earlier this year.

"Against the backdrop of increasingly challenging conditions within our industry, this is a transaction that combines a fair price with an industrially compelling solution for Ciba," Meyer said Monday in the statement. "By joining with BASF and gaining access to its research, production and marketing platform, we will significantly strengthen Ciba's businesses, especially in the areas of plastics, coatings and paper."

On Aug. 19, Ciba dropped the most since first trading in 1997 after posting an unexpected second-quarter loss on rising material costs and write-downs. Ciba announced a review of its water and paper treatment division, which had annual revenue last year of 2.53 billion francs, or 39 percent of the company's total revenue. The company took a 595 million francs write-down in the book value of the division as previously forecast profitability levels would not be met.

Ciba plans to cut 2,500 jobs, or 16 percent of the workforce, by 2009 and targets savings of as much as 500 million Swiss francs.

19/9/2008 BASF SE Outlook To Negative On Ciba Acquisition;Ciba Ratings On CreditWatch Positive

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Sept. 16, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it revised its outlook on Germany-based chemicals producer BASF SE to negative from stable, following the announcement that it will acquire Switzerland-based specialty chemicals producer Ciba Holding Inc. (Ciba). The 'AA-' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term corporate credit ratings on BASF were affirmed.

At the same time, we placed the 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term
corporate credit ratings on Ciba and related entities on CreditWatch with
positive implications.

BASF's planned purchase of Ciba for a total consideration of about €3.8
billion including financial debt obligations is likely to be closed in 2009
and is subject to regulatory approvals as well as 66.67% approval of Ciba
shareholders.

"We expect the acquisition to be successful because BASF is offering a
substantial premium, and Ciba's board of directors supports the offer," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock.

With this purchase, BASF will further expand its specialty chemicals
operations and continue to reduce its dependency on the petrochemical cycle.

It will make BASF the market leader in paper chemicals, from its current No. 4
position. BASF will also inherit from Ciba the No.1 position in plastic
additives and improve its market position in coating effects to No.2.

We believe BASF's backward integration will support Ciba's currently
struggling specialty chemicals business model and make earnings more stable
through a cycle. We already consider BASF's business risk profile excellent
and we do not expect the Ciba acquisition to change this. Nevertheless,
although diversification will further improve, profitability will be somewhat
diluted.

"The negative outlook reflects our concerns that BASF's credit protection
ratios are likely to weaken in 2009, owing to the combination of the debt
financing of the Ciba acquisition, the cyclical downturn, the company's
commitment to its existing €3 billion share buyback program, and substantial
dividend payments," said Mr. Mock. "This largely consumes the company's
financial flexibility at the current rating level and increase the risk of a
rating downgrade should cash flow generation weaken in the deteriorating
economic environment."

 

[lorenzo63]

22/09/2008 -- 3/11/2008: Di nuovo Ineos (Mark ed altri)

Moody's changes outlook on Ineos ratings to negative.

London, 19 September 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a negative outlook to the B1 corporate family rating of Ineos Group Holdings plc, the Ba3 ratings on its existing senior first lien facilities, the B3 ratings of its second-lien facilities and the B3 ratings on its senior guaranteed notes and legacy notes at Ineos Vinyls.

The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that the weak current operating trends may persist in the near future, leading to a sustained weakness in the cash flow generation of the group as the polyolefins cycle enters into a downturn. Moody's has previously indicated that a deterioration in the group's cash flow debt coverage metrics with FFO plus Interest / Interest falling below 2.0x or weakening FCF generation are likely to put negative pressure on the current ratings. Moody's is also concerned that a sustained weakness in operating cash flow generation could also constrain headroom under the group's financial covenants potentially raising liquidity concerns.

Moody's nevertheless notes that Ineos's performance in the first half of 2008 was influenced by a number of one-off events, such as a strike at its Grangemouth facilities and a fire at the ethylene pipeline in Koln, and reflected some structural pressure on O&P margins in Europe that to a certain extent should be corrected during the second part of the year. Looking ahead, Moody's will focus on the ability of the group to continue to generate FCF through the trough of the cycle and proactively manage its liquidity in spite of increasingly volatile feedstock prices.

Moody's notes that Ineos' liquidity position is tightly managed. At the end of June 2008, the group reported c. EUR 374 million in availability under its working capital facilities and EUR 515 million in cash balances ahead of the interest payments in November 2008.

The following ratings are affected by the rating action:

Ineos Group Holdings plc:

- Corporate Family Rating: B1

- Probability of default ("PD") rating: B1

- EUR 1,750 m and USD 750 m 2016 senior g-teed notes - B3 and LGD at 5 (89%);

Ineos Holding Limited

- EUR 4,310 m and USD1,930 m first-lien senior g-teed bank facilities - Ba3 and LGD at 3 (34%);

- EUR 650 m second lien senior loans - B3 and LGD at 5 (78%);

Ineos Vinyls Finance plc

- EUR 160 m senior g-teed notes - B3 and LGD at 6 (96%).

Ineos Group Holdings plc is a diversified and integrated chemicals group headquartered in Southampton, the United Kingdom. Ineos reported 2007 Revenues of EUR 27.5 billion and EBIT of EUR 1.2 billion

In data 3/11/2008 da Ineos

Aggiornamento da Ineos
Press Releases
INEOS - Adapting in turbulent times.

03 November 2008

In response to recent media speculation, INEOS today pointed out that it has never breached any of its banking covenants. The company has significantly reduced its borrowings over the last three years and has no significant debt maturing in the short term.
INEOS has adequate liquidity. Since acquiring Innovene in 2005 it has reduced its debt by over €1bn. Cash balances at 30th September amounted to €1.4bn.
The company also operates all its businesses to be profitable at the bottom of the chemicals cycle. However, in view of the current economic climate and in line with many other companies, INEOS is prioritising cash generation and reviewing its non-essential capital expenditure programme.
INEOS has significantly improved the cost base and efficiency of all its businesses to enable it to compete effectively in global markets.

 

[lorenzo63]

17/11/2008: Ineos.. Ma il mercato..

Intanto il bond 2016 7,875% in euro va giù in maniera inarrestabile. A Francoforte ora è in lettera a 24 (denaro 17)

 

[lorenzo63]

18/11/07: Lorenzov1963 su Ineos + Massimo Rpt di Jyske

Ineos è una società che ha raggruppato diverse branche riguardanti sia le materie plastiche sia chemicals speciality; Per quanto attiene le materie plastiche: le stireniche in generale è oramai da tempo che soffrono ed in maniera pesante e francamente non vedo all' orizzonte a parte qualche nicchia segnali incoraggianti;La divisione film (marcatamente il pvc) nell' ambiente si vocifera da tempo che tutto il pacco sia in vendita: esistono da tempo problematiche note circa l' aspetto ambientale di questa materia prima che comunque aldilà di tutto è probabilmente una delle meno correlate con l' aumento del petrolio (stante il suo tipo di sintesi e composizione) ma comunque hanno siti con impianti ampiamente ammortati (e talvolta obsoleti) ma con particolarità legate ad una difficile ritrasformazione dei medesimi ed a costi operativi elevati e che generano comunque notevoli qtà di sfrido anche se attualmente detentori di alcune nicchie non facilemente scalzabili ma non tali da assicurarne il futuro;La divisione ABS è marcatamente correlata alla elettronica di consumo e piu' in generale elettrodomestici: i consumi di questi settori sono in marcata flessione... + avanti, vista l' ora tarda

farò un sunto un po' piu' allargato della chimica europea...

In generale a parte qualche settore in particolare INEOS ha raggruppato sotto le sue "ali" una serie di settori abbastanza "maturi" che per un po' di tempo hanno generato un buon cash flow ma da tempo "soffrono".
Dimenticavo: questo a differenza di altri miei post non è "IMHO"....

Quindi il mercato rispecchia quella che è una situazione oggettivamente reale.
Buenas noche

18/11/2008

Molto brutti i conti di Ineos, ma leggermente migliori di quanto si potesse temere. Ecco cosa diceva oggi Jyske Bank.

Monday was again a day in negative territory. Although the trading volume was low. Generally, the bonds fell a few points from the
early morning. The largest loser was Ineos as the market feared that there would be further bad news in connection with the accounts after competitors had released disappointing accounts. But Ineos’ accounts were in line with expectations and the trading statement so the bonds rose slightly on the accounts.
Accounts from Ineos
Yesterday, Ineos Group released its accounts for the third quarter 2008. The accounts are far from adequate and there is no further information than what was released in the trading statement. However, at segment level there is a significant weakening within O&P in both Europe and the US. Chemicals Intermediates perform surprisingly well. Sales for the quarter came to EUR 8.5bn against EUR 6.9bn in the third quarter 2007. EBITDA came to EUR 403.1m compared to EUR 499.1m in the third quarter. Net debt was EUR 7,291.2m, resulting in a financial leverage ratio of 4.1x. Ineos reports significantly deteriorated market conditions in Q4 2008, which has made the market much less transparent. Ineos therefore expects to reduce the expected CAPEX level from EUR 600m in 2009 to EUR 250m. Moreover, Ineos has asked for a waiver of the bank loan covenants. According to a press statement from Ineos, the company’s lead bankers, Barclays Capital and Merrill Lynch, have accepted the covenant waivers.
We have a HOLD recommendation on the company, but we are currently considering our recommendation and will publish an update later today.​

Che avranno voluto dire con l'ultima frase, che ho evidenziato?