Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Telecom Europa VII (agosto - dicembre 2009) (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
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Imark
Forumer storico
Cableuropa era piuttosto malconcia l'ultima volta che ho da un'occhiata... se non erro, il bond di Ono Finance è garantito da Cableuropa su base subordinata...
Ma anche fra le cable companies, questa - prevalentemente attiva in Spagna, in cui la disoccupazione sta salendo non poco, a causa della struttura del mercato del lavoro locale - è messa peggio ... le tedesche, sebbene anch'esse HY, già sono un po' meno estreme.....
Imark
Forumer storico
Per 1 $ gli interessati possono sapere cosa ne pensava S&P nel febbraio 2008... 
Prospect News: ONO Finance plc
Prospect News: ONO Finance plc
Imark
Forumer storico
Altrimenti, aggratis, questo commento di Fitch del marzo 2009, in occasione di un downgrade, può essere utile a ricostruire la situazione....
I bond di Ono dovrebbero stare sul CCC...
Il problema sono i livelli di indebitamento e la possibilità di fare deleverage nel medio termine, ma soprattutto la necessità di rinegoziare gli accordi con le banche rispetto al debito secured in scadenza, perché la società per il resto sarebbe profittevole, anche se con qualche rischio per il futuro legato alla situazione spagnola.
Insomma, a guardare bene non è escluso che possa avere spunti di interesse come scommessa speculativa in quanto, se trovano l'accordo con le banche per il rifinanziamento e se dopo riescono a fare deleverage... credo che il primo passaggio sia essenziale: superato quello, i corsi dei bond potrebbero risalire.
Fitch Downgrades Cableuropa to 'B'; Assigns Negative Outlook
06 Mar 2009 10:57 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Barcelona-06 March 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Spain-based Cableuropa S.A.'s (Cableuropa) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) to 'B', from 'B+' and assigned a Negative Outlook. At the same time the agency has downgraded Cableuropa's senior secured bank facility to 'BB-' from 'BB' and its high-yield bonds (issued by ONO Finance Plc and ONO Finance II) to 'CCC' from 'B-' (B minus). The Short-term IDR of 'B' is affirmed.
Cableuropa is the principal cable operator in Spain, providing broadband, telephony and multi-channel TV to approximately 1.9 million customers.
In the nine months to September 2009 the company generated sales of EUR1.2bn and EBITDA of EUR528m (reflecting a margin of 43.8%).
Today's rating action takes into account the refinancing risk associated with its EUR3.5bn senior bank facility, which Fitch considers will need to be agreed (or at least have some easing in the 2010 and 2011 repayment profile) by early-to-mid 2010 to avoid liquidity concerns later in that year.
While the company's cable operations in Spain are proving resilient in the face of deteriorating economic conditions, growth prospects and the associated potential to de-lever, are in Fitch's view now likely to be limited through 2010. The business has also yet to be fully tested, given that economic conditions in Spain are likely to remain difficult for a protracted period.
Continued cost restructuring and the negative working capital flows associated with capex cuts are likely to constrain free cash flow through 2009, albeit that Fitch recognises the cash generating potential of a business with 1.9 million subscribers and good track record of growing the number of services taken per customer.
This ability has enabled Cableuropa to sustain some of the strongest average revenue per user (ARPU) and revenue generating unit per customer (RGU / customer) metrics across the European cable sector. With the company no longer able to rely on revenue growth driven by network build, it will be imperative for Cableuropa to sustain these metrics and importantly to manage the rate of customer churn, which has crept up in recent quarters as the downturn has taken hold.
Fitch notes that (based on results to Sept 08) it expects the company to meet its published targets for 2008 (when it announces full year earnings next week) and that without the scale and immediacy of refinancing concerns, ratings might not have come under the pressure they have.
These concerns, as well as the potential downside risk to the 2009 outlook, suggest credit risk is better reflected by current ratings levels.
The Negative Outlook reflects the company's refinancing concerns. Clear visibility that the company can refinance or at a minimum reschedule its repayment schedule through 2012 (combined with on-budget performance), would be needed in order for ratings to stabilise at the current level.
Fitch notes that Cableuropa's bank group is relatively smaller than some other cable companies such as Virgin Media, which has successfully renegotiated its bank facilities (post the collapse of Lehman Brothers). This feature should in Fitch's view help the refinancing process.
Clarity around this issue would be expected by 4Q09 / 1Q10 if further negative action is to be avoided, as is a leverage (net debt / annualised EBITDA) metric that remains below 6.0x throughout 2009 and performs with a degree of headroom within the reducing metric prescribed by the bank covenant (which ratchets down to 5.95x by 4Q09). Progress in developing a materially positive FCF profile (not expected before 2010) could potentially lead to a more positive view of the IDR
I bond di Ono dovrebbero stare sul CCC...
Il problema sono i livelli di indebitamento e la possibilità di fare deleverage nel medio termine, ma soprattutto la necessità di rinegoziare gli accordi con le banche rispetto al debito secured in scadenza, perché la società per il resto sarebbe profittevole, anche se con qualche rischio per il futuro legato alla situazione spagnola.
Insomma, a guardare bene non è escluso che possa avere spunti di interesse come scommessa speculativa in quanto, se trovano l'accordo con le banche per il rifinanziamento e se dopo riescono a fare deleverage... credo che il primo passaggio sia essenziale: superato quello, i corsi dei bond potrebbero risalire.
Fitch Downgrades Cableuropa to 'B'; Assigns Negative Outlook
06 Mar 2009 10:57 AM (EST)
Fitch Ratings-London/Barcelona-06 March 2009: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded Spain-based Cableuropa S.A.'s (Cableuropa) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) to 'B', from 'B+' and assigned a Negative Outlook. At the same time the agency has downgraded Cableuropa's senior secured bank facility to 'BB-' from 'BB' and its high-yield bonds (issued by ONO Finance Plc and ONO Finance II) to 'CCC' from 'B-' (B minus). The Short-term IDR of 'B' is affirmed.
Cableuropa is the principal cable operator in Spain, providing broadband, telephony and multi-channel TV to approximately 1.9 million customers.
In the nine months to September 2009 the company generated sales of EUR1.2bn and EBITDA of EUR528m (reflecting a margin of 43.8%).
Today's rating action takes into account the refinancing risk associated with its EUR3.5bn senior bank facility, which Fitch considers will need to be agreed (or at least have some easing in the 2010 and 2011 repayment profile) by early-to-mid 2010 to avoid liquidity concerns later in that year.
While the company's cable operations in Spain are proving resilient in the face of deteriorating economic conditions, growth prospects and the associated potential to de-lever, are in Fitch's view now likely to be limited through 2010. The business has also yet to be fully tested, given that economic conditions in Spain are likely to remain difficult for a protracted period.
Continued cost restructuring and the negative working capital flows associated with capex cuts are likely to constrain free cash flow through 2009, albeit that Fitch recognises the cash generating potential of a business with 1.9 million subscribers and good track record of growing the number of services taken per customer.
This ability has enabled Cableuropa to sustain some of the strongest average revenue per user (ARPU) and revenue generating unit per customer (RGU / customer) metrics across the European cable sector. With the company no longer able to rely on revenue growth driven by network build, it will be imperative for Cableuropa to sustain these metrics and importantly to manage the rate of customer churn, which has crept up in recent quarters as the downturn has taken hold.
Fitch notes that (based on results to Sept 08) it expects the company to meet its published targets for 2008 (when it announces full year earnings next week) and that without the scale and immediacy of refinancing concerns, ratings might not have come under the pressure they have.
These concerns, as well as the potential downside risk to the 2009 outlook, suggest credit risk is better reflected by current ratings levels.
The Negative Outlook reflects the company's refinancing concerns. Clear visibility that the company can refinance or at a minimum reschedule its repayment schedule through 2012 (combined with on-budget performance), would be needed in order for ratings to stabilise at the current level.
Fitch notes that Cableuropa's bank group is relatively smaller than some other cable companies such as Virgin Media, which has successfully renegotiated its bank facilities (post the collapse of Lehman Brothers). This feature should in Fitch's view help the refinancing process.
Clarity around this issue would be expected by 4Q09 / 1Q10 if further negative action is to be avoided, as is a leverage (net debt / annualised EBITDA) metric that remains below 6.0x throughout 2009 and performs with a degree of headroom within the reducing metric prescribed by the bank covenant (which ratchets down to 5.95x by 4Q09). Progress in developing a materially positive FCF profile (not expected before 2010) could potentially lead to a more positive view of the IDR
Imark
Forumer storico
Valutazioni analoghe da Moody's nel febbraio 2009, magari con maggiore enfasi sui rischi legati alla situazione economica spagnola, sebbene anche qui, come prima da parte di Fitch, si sottolinei come recentemente alcune società del settore, pur di maggiori dimensioni di Cableurope, abbiano trovato l'accordo con le banche.
Moody's postula anche la possibilità che intervenga una ristrutturazione "distressed" di componenti del debito del gruppo.
Anche qui però, dovesse intervenire la rinegoziazione degli accordi con le banche, e dovesse la società avere successo nella generazione di free cash flow e nel rafforzamento dei livelli di liquidità, ci sono possibilità di upside per outlook e rating.
Moody's downgrades to B3 from B1 the CFR of Cableuropa (ONO); negative outlook
Madrid, February 27, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Cableuropa S.A.U. (ONO) to B3 from B1. Moody's has also downgraded to Caa2 from B3 the ratings of (i) the EUR180 million 10.5% senior notes due 2014 issued by ONO Finance Plc and (ii) the EUR270 million 8% senior notes due 2014 issued by ONO Finance II Plc. Loss Given Default (LGD) assessment of LGD6 remains unchanged. This rating action concludes the review for possible downgrade initiated in October 2008. The outlook on all ratings has been changed to negative.
This action reflects Moody's view that the current trading prospects and economic and competitive environment in Spain will adversely affect EBITDA growth and positive free cash flow (FCF) generation capacity in the future, resulting in a deleveraging profile falling short of original expectations and constrained headroom under recently relaxed syndicated bank debt covenant levels.
Moreover, notwithstanding on-balance sheet liquid assets, there is potential in Moody's opinion for these to be depleted over time in the absence of significant FCF generation as ONO is facing increasing debt service requirements with refinancing risk developing. Reliance on continued availability through renewals of short-term bilateral lines of credit is also seen as a source of concern in the current capital markets environment, though the company reports that most lines have recently been extended.
The ratings of ONO had been placed on review on 27 October 2008 (Moody's previous rating action) following the company's announcement that it was negotiating with unions to potentially reduce its workforce significantly in view of what the company considered a worsening macroeconomic situation in Spain and a weak outlook for the future.
The company regarded the announcement as being in line with its strategy of taking a prudent approach to growth expectations, which is also articulated in a reduction of operating and capital expenditure with a view to conserving liquidity and concentrating on achieving positive free cash flow.
Whilst Moody's recognises the merits of this strategy in the short-to-medium term, it also notes that there is a degree of execution risk and potential hampering of ONO's medium-to-long term growth prospects and business profile in a fiercely competitive marketplace.
Moody's notes that the expectation of growth in the underlying business and cash flow profile had been considered by Moody's to be an important underpinning to the prior ratings positioning. The current rating positioning following today's action assumes the stabilisation of ONO's management team, including the appointment of a new CEO on a timely basis and a smooth transition process.
The outlook on ONO's ratings is negative. Further downward pressure could be exerted on the rating if ONO shows any of the following: (i) failure to deliver operational performance in line with plan, in terms of continued progress in strengthening credit and cash flow metrics on a quarterly basis; (ii) impaired access to bilateral lines of credit; (iii) a tightening of liquidity negatively affecting debt service capacity or further pressure on covenant compliance headroom; and/or (iv) failure to produce a credible refinancing plan to face debt maturities in 2010 and beyond (including the EUR144 million in June 2010 and EUR270 million in December 2010 under the syndicated credit facility) with a supportive creditor group.
In this regard, Moody's notes that any restructuring involving a discounted offer on debt components of the capital structure could be considered a distressed exchange and, by implication, a default under Moody's methodologies.
Conversely, sustainable operating performance and free cash flow generation ahead of plan together with elimination of refinancing risk and a strengthening of liquidity beyond a 12-18 month period could put positive pressure on the rating and/or outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating ONO was Moody's Global Cable Television Industry rating methodology, published August 2005 which is available at OpenDNS in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies sub-directory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory on Moody's website.
Headquartered in Madrid, Cableuropa S.A.U. (ONO) is the largest cable operator and a leading alternative provider of telecommunications, broadband and internet and pay-TV services in Spain.
As of September 2008, ONO offered direct access services to around 1.9 million residential and 69,000 business customers through its own networks, which reach around 6.9 million homes in franchises covering the majority of Spain, including the nine largest cities. In the 12 months to end-September 2008, ONO generated revenues of EUR1.604 billion and EBITDA of EUR685 million.
Moody's postula anche la possibilità che intervenga una ristrutturazione "distressed" di componenti del debito del gruppo.
Anche qui però, dovesse intervenire la rinegoziazione degli accordi con le banche, e dovesse la società avere successo nella generazione di free cash flow e nel rafforzamento dei livelli di liquidità, ci sono possibilità di upside per outlook e rating.
Moody's downgrades to B3 from B1 the CFR of Cableuropa (ONO); negative outlook
Madrid, February 27, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of Cableuropa S.A.U. (ONO) to B3 from B1. Moody's has also downgraded to Caa2 from B3 the ratings of (i) the EUR180 million 10.5% senior notes due 2014 issued by ONO Finance Plc and (ii) the EUR270 million 8% senior notes due 2014 issued by ONO Finance II Plc. Loss Given Default (LGD) assessment of LGD6 remains unchanged. This rating action concludes the review for possible downgrade initiated in October 2008. The outlook on all ratings has been changed to negative.
This action reflects Moody's view that the current trading prospects and economic and competitive environment in Spain will adversely affect EBITDA growth and positive free cash flow (FCF) generation capacity in the future, resulting in a deleveraging profile falling short of original expectations and constrained headroom under recently relaxed syndicated bank debt covenant levels.
Moreover, notwithstanding on-balance sheet liquid assets, there is potential in Moody's opinion for these to be depleted over time in the absence of significant FCF generation as ONO is facing increasing debt service requirements with refinancing risk developing. Reliance on continued availability through renewals of short-term bilateral lines of credit is also seen as a source of concern in the current capital markets environment, though the company reports that most lines have recently been extended.
The ratings of ONO had been placed on review on 27 October 2008 (Moody's previous rating action) following the company's announcement that it was negotiating with unions to potentially reduce its workforce significantly in view of what the company considered a worsening macroeconomic situation in Spain and a weak outlook for the future.
The company regarded the announcement as being in line with its strategy of taking a prudent approach to growth expectations, which is also articulated in a reduction of operating and capital expenditure with a view to conserving liquidity and concentrating on achieving positive free cash flow.
Whilst Moody's recognises the merits of this strategy in the short-to-medium term, it also notes that there is a degree of execution risk and potential hampering of ONO's medium-to-long term growth prospects and business profile in a fiercely competitive marketplace.
Moody's notes that the expectation of growth in the underlying business and cash flow profile had been considered by Moody's to be an important underpinning to the prior ratings positioning. The current rating positioning following today's action assumes the stabilisation of ONO's management team, including the appointment of a new CEO on a timely basis and a smooth transition process.
The outlook on ONO's ratings is negative. Further downward pressure could be exerted on the rating if ONO shows any of the following: (i) failure to deliver operational performance in line with plan, in terms of continued progress in strengthening credit and cash flow metrics on a quarterly basis; (ii) impaired access to bilateral lines of credit; (iii) a tightening of liquidity negatively affecting debt service capacity or further pressure on covenant compliance headroom; and/or (iv) failure to produce a credible refinancing plan to face debt maturities in 2010 and beyond (including the EUR144 million in June 2010 and EUR270 million in December 2010 under the syndicated credit facility) with a supportive creditor group.
In this regard, Moody's notes that any restructuring involving a discounted offer on debt components of the capital structure could be considered a distressed exchange and, by implication, a default under Moody's methodologies.
Conversely, sustainable operating performance and free cash flow generation ahead of plan together with elimination of refinancing risk and a strengthening of liquidity beyond a 12-18 month period could put positive pressure on the rating and/or outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating ONO was Moody's Global Cable Television Industry rating methodology, published August 2005 which is available at OpenDNS in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies sub-directory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory on Moody's website.
Headquartered in Madrid, Cableuropa S.A.U. (ONO) is the largest cable operator and a leading alternative provider of telecommunications, broadband and internet and pay-TV services in Spain.
As of September 2008, ONO offered direct access services to around 1.9 million residential and 69,000 business customers through its own networks, which reach around 6.9 million homes in franchises covering the majority of Spain, including the nine largest cities. In the 12 months to end-September 2008, ONO generated revenues of EUR1.604 billion and EBITDA of EUR685 million.
Imark
Forumer storico
Lo lascio qui per pura nostalgia in quanto, dopo il richiamo del bond a scadenza 2009, non mi risulta ci siano altre emissioni di Colt telecom, almeno in euro.
Peccato, perché dopo il turnaround di fine 2006, praticamente non hanno sbagliato un colpo. E arriva l'ennesimo upgrade...
Moody's upgrades Colt's CFR to Ba3; outlook stable
London, 13 October 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today upgraded the Corporate Family Rating of COLT Telecom Group S.A. ("COLT" or "the company") to Ba3 from B1. The outlook on the rating is stable.
The upgrade is driven by the company's continued solid operating performance, its resilience under difficult market conditions, strong debt metrics and liquidity profile. In H1 2009, whilst revenue was down 1.2% over H1 2008, EBITDA increased by 6.3%. The company was successful in growing revenue from its data services such as Ethernet and Managed Services, albeit at a lower pace than in 2008.
Since the beginning of the economic recession, COLT has proven its resilience with only modest revenue decline, EBITDA growth and free cash flow generation - reflecting the company's ability to flex capex in accordance with the business cycle. Revenue decreased from EUR 827 million in H1 08 to EUR 817 million in the first half of 2009. The reported EBITDA margin has increased to 19.3% from 18% over the same period, due to the greater proportion of higher-margin revenue from data and managed services and stringent cost control.
Moody's understands that the 41% decrease in capital expenditure in H1 2009 over H1 2008 is only partly due to softer demand and does not necessarily imply a similar decrease in future revenue growth. Most of the reduction is explained by the availability of sufficient capacity from previous investments, improved capital efficiency and low capex from infrastructure and data centres. However, in the medium term, we expect the capex/revenue ratio to rise from the current 11% to mid-teen levels, in order to support growth in data and managed services revenue.
In April 2009, the company redeemed its EUR 262 million bonds after a EUR 201 million equity offering. In addition to demonstrating shareholder support, this left COLT with no outstanding financial debt. Additionally, COLT reported cash of EUR 243 million at 30 June 2009. However, COLT's LTM gross leverage of 1.8x incorporates Moody's adjustments on operating leases.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the company will continue to modestly grow its revenue and EBITDA from data services, as well as consolidated group EBITDA while acknowledging that Colt remains strongly positioned in the rating category given the recent elimination of its financial debt obligations. The outlook though also reflects the expectation that over the medium term Colt's capital structure will evolve to include financial debt. Although the stable outlook does not incorporate the possibility of material M&A activity, Moody's recognizes the potential for further positive ratings movement if the company retains a conservative leverage profile and shareholder distribution policy, and maintains positive free cash flow when it increases its capex programme or pursues small bolt-on acquisitions.
The last rating action was on 24 March 2009 when the Corporate Family Rating was upgraded to B1, with a positive outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating this issuer was the Global Telecommunications Industry methodology, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
COLT Telecom Group S.A. is one of the leading alternative telecom providers in the UK and Europe. In 2008, the company generated revenue of EUR1.7 billion and reported EBITDA of EUR303.9 million.
Peccato, perché dopo il turnaround di fine 2006, praticamente non hanno sbagliato un colpo. E arriva l'ennesimo upgrade...
Moody's upgrades Colt's CFR to Ba3; outlook stable
London, 13 October 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today upgraded the Corporate Family Rating of COLT Telecom Group S.A. ("COLT" or "the company") to Ba3 from B1. The outlook on the rating is stable.
The upgrade is driven by the company's continued solid operating performance, its resilience under difficult market conditions, strong debt metrics and liquidity profile. In H1 2009, whilst revenue was down 1.2% over H1 2008, EBITDA increased by 6.3%. The company was successful in growing revenue from its data services such as Ethernet and Managed Services, albeit at a lower pace than in 2008.
Since the beginning of the economic recession, COLT has proven its resilience with only modest revenue decline, EBITDA growth and free cash flow generation - reflecting the company's ability to flex capex in accordance with the business cycle. Revenue decreased from EUR 827 million in H1 08 to EUR 817 million in the first half of 2009. The reported EBITDA margin has increased to 19.3% from 18% over the same period, due to the greater proportion of higher-margin revenue from data and managed services and stringent cost control.
Moody's understands that the 41% decrease in capital expenditure in H1 2009 over H1 2008 is only partly due to softer demand and does not necessarily imply a similar decrease in future revenue growth. Most of the reduction is explained by the availability of sufficient capacity from previous investments, improved capital efficiency and low capex from infrastructure and data centres. However, in the medium term, we expect the capex/revenue ratio to rise from the current 11% to mid-teen levels, in order to support growth in data and managed services revenue.
In April 2009, the company redeemed its EUR 262 million bonds after a EUR 201 million equity offering. In addition to demonstrating shareholder support, this left COLT with no outstanding financial debt. Additionally, COLT reported cash of EUR 243 million at 30 June 2009. However, COLT's LTM gross leverage of 1.8x incorporates Moody's adjustments on operating leases.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the company will continue to modestly grow its revenue and EBITDA from data services, as well as consolidated group EBITDA while acknowledging that Colt remains strongly positioned in the rating category given the recent elimination of its financial debt obligations. The outlook though also reflects the expectation that over the medium term Colt's capital structure will evolve to include financial debt. Although the stable outlook does not incorporate the possibility of material M&A activity, Moody's recognizes the potential for further positive ratings movement if the company retains a conservative leverage profile and shareholder distribution policy, and maintains positive free cash flow when it increases its capex programme or pursues small bolt-on acquisitions.
The last rating action was on 24 March 2009 when the Corporate Family Rating was upgraded to B1, with a positive outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating this issuer was the Global Telecommunications Industry methodology, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.
COLT Telecom Group S.A. is one of the leading alternative telecom providers in the UK and Europe. In 2008, the company generated revenue of EUR1.7 billion and reported EBITDA of EUR303.9 million.
Imark
Forumer storico
Altro argomento da tenere d'occhio, specie per le telecom concentrate soprattutto o esclusivamente sul mobile, è quello dell'impatto del mobile VoIP. Un breve report di Fitch sul tema, che seguiremo dovesse divenire nei prossimi anni uno dei fattori in grado di impattare significativamente il fatturato o i margini operativi delle telecom europee.
In realtà, come traspare dal report, è ben probabile che alla fine siano le stesse telecom europee a rendere possibile il servizio di mobile VoIP sulle proprie frequenze, in un contesto in cui l'accresciuta capienza in termini di veicolazione consenta di offrire la chiamata in voce come utilità low cost mentre si opera la migrazione della clientela verso servizi a più alto valore aggiunto (e a più elevato margine per chi li vende).
In ogni caso, considerato il fattore risk execution insito in qualsiasi innovazione tecnologica che abbatta il costo praticabile per un servizio oggi di primaria importanza per molte telecom, vedremo di cogliere nel tempo la sua incidenza effettiva ed anche l'eventuale effetto sulla tempistica dell'adozione del mobile VoIP di eventuali decisioni dei regolatori europei e nazionali.
Fitch: Mobile VoIP in Europe Unlikely to Achieve Mass Market Soon
12 Oct 2009 7:26 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-12 October 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that mobile VoIP (voice over internet protocol) in the European telecoms industry is unlikely to achieve mass market take up for some time.
However, as network quality improves, selective usage of mobile VoIP could start to impact operators' revenue from higher tariff services like international calls and voice roaming. Mobile VoIP is attractive mainly for cost reasons. In similarity to fixed telephony, mobile VoIP creates a technology arbitrage opportunity between voice and data.
Given the current pricing of mobile data packages, Fitch estimates the cost per minute of a mobile VoIP call using a 3G network is around 10-20 times cheaper than the cost of a normal mobile phone call. (Fitch compared the cost of a normal mobile call, based on the average price of minutes in a standard large minutes-inclusive bundle, with the estimated cost of a mobile VoIP call based on the average per unit price of a typical mobile data tariff.)
Mobile broadband take up is rising, which increases the potential size of the mobile VoIP user base. Fitch estimate that 25% of online European consumers now regularly access the internet from their mobile phones but up until now most European operators have not allowed VoIP services to be carried over their 3G networks. However, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, and mirroring recent developments in the United States, the agency believes that the number of mobile operators in Europe allowing VoIP on their 3G networks is likely to increase within the next three years.
EU Information Society and Media Commissioner Viviane Reding has made it clear that the second round of roaming regulation introduced during the summer of 2009 stresses that "there should be no obstacles to the emergence of applications or technologies which can be a substitute for, or alternative to, roaming services, such as WiFi, VoIP and instant messaging services."
As with fixed line VoIP, Fitch expects there will good demand for mobile VoIP which is likely to be used by consumers for low cost international calling and to bypass international roaming charges while travelling. Nonetheless, there are several factors holding back the adoption of mobile VoIP over 3G. Network quality remains a problem. The 3G coverage required for VoIP remains patchy, and upload speeds are poor.
More importantly, latency, the delay before the network delivers a packet of data, is roughly around 150-200ms or higher depending on network loading and signal strength.
To place a good quality mobile VoIP call, latency should be below 100ms. Network quality and latency issues should be resolved as HSDPA (high-speed downlink packet access) handsets become more common and operators upgrade their networks, however, this will take time. Most current mobile VoIP applications are not easy to install and use on a mobile handset. As they are not supported by operators, they are usually not integrated with a handset and network functionality.
Furthermore, mobile operators are still bundling a large number of voice minutes and text messages together in their tariff plans. As long as users keep usage within the bundle, the low cost of using bundled voice and SMS remain relatively attractive given the unreliability and difficulty associated with VoIP.
To protect their core revenue streams, operators are likely to continue to bundle voice and SMS with mobile data. In the event that mobile VoIP becomes more popular, Fitch believes that operators would likely rebalance their tariffs, making voice cheaper and data more expensive, to maintain profitability.
In the longer-term, mobile operators are likely to offer VoIP services themselves. This is likely to be part of the evolution of mobile networks when LTE networks (networks using the next technology standard after 3G) are deployed, possibly after 2012. When this happens, the cost of transporting voice calls should fall significantly. Mobile operators would essentially offer the same service as current mobile VoIP players, but with the benefit of greater scale.
In realtà, come traspare dal report, è ben probabile che alla fine siano le stesse telecom europee a rendere possibile il servizio di mobile VoIP sulle proprie frequenze, in un contesto in cui l'accresciuta capienza in termini di veicolazione consenta di offrire la chiamata in voce come utilità low cost mentre si opera la migrazione della clientela verso servizi a più alto valore aggiunto (e a più elevato margine per chi li vende).
In ogni caso, considerato il fattore risk execution insito in qualsiasi innovazione tecnologica che abbatta il costo praticabile per un servizio oggi di primaria importanza per molte telecom, vedremo di cogliere nel tempo la sua incidenza effettiva ed anche l'eventuale effetto sulla tempistica dell'adozione del mobile VoIP di eventuali decisioni dei regolatori europei e nazionali.
Fitch: Mobile VoIP in Europe Unlikely to Achieve Mass Market Soon
12 Oct 2009 7:26 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-12 October 2009: Fitch Ratings says today that mobile VoIP (voice over internet protocol) in the European telecoms industry is unlikely to achieve mass market take up for some time.
However, as network quality improves, selective usage of mobile VoIP could start to impact operators' revenue from higher tariff services like international calls and voice roaming. Mobile VoIP is attractive mainly for cost reasons. In similarity to fixed telephony, mobile VoIP creates a technology arbitrage opportunity between voice and data.
Given the current pricing of mobile data packages, Fitch estimates the cost per minute of a mobile VoIP call using a 3G network is around 10-20 times cheaper than the cost of a normal mobile phone call. (Fitch compared the cost of a normal mobile call, based on the average price of minutes in a standard large minutes-inclusive bundle, with the estimated cost of a mobile VoIP call based on the average per unit price of a typical mobile data tariff.)
Mobile broadband take up is rising, which increases the potential size of the mobile VoIP user base. Fitch estimate that 25% of online European consumers now regularly access the internet from their mobile phones but up until now most European operators have not allowed VoIP services to be carried over their 3G networks. However, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, and mirroring recent developments in the United States, the agency believes that the number of mobile operators in Europe allowing VoIP on their 3G networks is likely to increase within the next three years.
EU Information Society and Media Commissioner Viviane Reding has made it clear that the second round of roaming regulation introduced during the summer of 2009 stresses that "there should be no obstacles to the emergence of applications or technologies which can be a substitute for, or alternative to, roaming services, such as WiFi, VoIP and instant messaging services."
As with fixed line VoIP, Fitch expects there will good demand for mobile VoIP which is likely to be used by consumers for low cost international calling and to bypass international roaming charges while travelling. Nonetheless, there are several factors holding back the adoption of mobile VoIP over 3G. Network quality remains a problem. The 3G coverage required for VoIP remains patchy, and upload speeds are poor.
More importantly, latency, the delay before the network delivers a packet of data, is roughly around 150-200ms or higher depending on network loading and signal strength.
To place a good quality mobile VoIP call, latency should be below 100ms. Network quality and latency issues should be resolved as HSDPA (high-speed downlink packet access) handsets become more common and operators upgrade their networks, however, this will take time. Most current mobile VoIP applications are not easy to install and use on a mobile handset. As they are not supported by operators, they are usually not integrated with a handset and network functionality.
Furthermore, mobile operators are still bundling a large number of voice minutes and text messages together in their tariff plans. As long as users keep usage within the bundle, the low cost of using bundled voice and SMS remain relatively attractive given the unreliability and difficulty associated with VoIP.
To protect their core revenue streams, operators are likely to continue to bundle voice and SMS with mobile data. In the event that mobile VoIP becomes more popular, Fitch believes that operators would likely rebalance their tariffs, making voice cheaper and data more expensive, to maintain profitability.
In the longer-term, mobile operators are likely to offer VoIP services themselves. This is likely to be part of the evolution of mobile networks when LTE networks (networks using the next technology standard after 3G) are deployed, possibly after 2012. When this happens, the cost of transporting voice calls should fall significantly. Mobile operators would essentially offer the same service as current mobile VoIP players, but with the benefit of greater scale.
Imark
Forumer storico
Monitor telecom bonds (gruppo di lavoro Torino41 e I98mark)
Avvertenze
Situazione della liquidità ancora in progresso per i telecom bonds, e per la prima volta dall'estate del 2007 uno dei titoli NTC Holding (quello a tasso variabile) ha fatto su Francoforte un prezzo abbastanza vicino a quello dell'XTrakter... situazione non ancora normalizzata del tutto, ma in ulteriore progresso.
Per i titoli illiquidi sui mercati retail, è sempre grazie a Massimo S. che riusciamo a riprendere i corsi di mercati OTC.
I prezzi sono quelli rilevati alla chiusura di venerdì sera sui mercati ex ICMA (ed in futuro indicati come Xtrakter) per i seguenti bond:
PT 2025; KPN 2017; TDC 2012; NTC 2016; NTC 2016 FRN; Telenor 2012; TeliaSonera 2015; British Telecom 2014;
Per PT 2017, Telefonica 2033, France Telecom 2033; Deutsche Telekom 2033 e Telecom Italia 2055 il prezzo è invece di fonte Bloomberg, rilevato sempre alla chiusura di venerdì sera.
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Il periodo monitorato
Anche questa settimana, la tendenza generale resta per un indebolimento dei corsi, sebbene molto lieve, anche in virtù del declino dell'azionario di venerdì scorso che ha ridato un po' di tono all'obbligazionario IG del comparto.
Ancora piuttosto bene l'HY, reduce da una settimana in cui le borse, a parte la scivolata di venerdì, hanno comunque visto un andamento ancora in salita.
I dati macro diffusi in settimana hanno indotto ad un certo ottimismo circa la possibilità di una crescita leggermente superiore alle attese per il prossimo anno in Europa e in USA, ma la sola cosa realmente prevedibile per ora è un piccolo rialzo dell'inflazione su base statistica nel mese di ottobre, in Eurolandia come negli USA.
Fuori tabella, il bond 11% Cell C 2015 in USD (Subordinato, rating CCC) anche questa settimana ha fatto prezzo solo su Francoforte, dove siamo tornati al riampiamento dello spread bid ask di qualche settimana fa. Queste le quotazioni: last price 95 (95,00); bid 95 (95,25) ask 107 (99,00). In parentesi i prezzi last, bid ed ask risalenti alla precedente rilevazione.
Maino per il momento continuerà a non aggiornare il ventimaggio per cui lo scarico del file resta per ora disponibile solo qui... resta utile segnalare il sito di Maino per i materiali lì reperibili...
http://digilander.libero.it/ventimag...i%20files.html
La tabella riepilogativa dei prezzi, ora tripartita: questa la prima parte...
Avvertenze
Situazione della liquidità ancora in progresso per i telecom bonds, e per la prima volta dall'estate del 2007 uno dei titoli NTC Holding (quello a tasso variabile) ha fatto su Francoforte un prezzo abbastanza vicino a quello dell'XTrakter... situazione non ancora normalizzata del tutto, ma in ulteriore progresso.
Per i titoli illiquidi sui mercati retail, è sempre grazie a Massimo S. che riusciamo a riprendere i corsi di mercati OTC.
I prezzi sono quelli rilevati alla chiusura di venerdì sera sui mercati ex ICMA (ed in futuro indicati come Xtrakter) per i seguenti bond:
PT 2025; KPN 2017; TDC 2012; NTC 2016; NTC 2016 FRN; Telenor 2012; TeliaSonera 2015; British Telecom 2014;
Per PT 2017, Telefonica 2033, France Telecom 2033; Deutsche Telekom 2033 e Telecom Italia 2055 il prezzo è invece di fonte Bloomberg, rilevato sempre alla chiusura di venerdì sera.
------------------------------
Il periodo monitorato
Anche questa settimana, la tendenza generale resta per un indebolimento dei corsi, sebbene molto lieve, anche in virtù del declino dell'azionario di venerdì scorso che ha ridato un po' di tono all'obbligazionario IG del comparto.
Ancora piuttosto bene l'HY, reduce da una settimana in cui le borse, a parte la scivolata di venerdì, hanno comunque visto un andamento ancora in salita.
I dati macro diffusi in settimana hanno indotto ad un certo ottimismo circa la possibilità di una crescita leggermente superiore alle attese per il prossimo anno in Europa e in USA, ma la sola cosa realmente prevedibile per ora è un piccolo rialzo dell'inflazione su base statistica nel mese di ottobre, in Eurolandia come negli USA.
Fuori tabella, il bond 11% Cell C 2015 in USD (Subordinato, rating CCC) anche questa settimana ha fatto prezzo solo su Francoforte, dove siamo tornati al riampiamento dello spread bid ask di qualche settimana fa. Queste le quotazioni: last price 95 (95,00); bid 95 (95,25) ask 107 (99,00). In parentesi i prezzi last, bid ed ask risalenti alla precedente rilevazione.
Maino per il momento continuerà a non aggiornare il ventimaggio per cui lo scarico del file resta per ora disponibile solo qui... resta utile segnalare il sito di Maino per i materiali lì reperibili...
http://digilander.libero.it/ventimag...i%20files.html
La tabella riepilogativa dei prezzi, ora tripartita: questa la prima parte...
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- Stato