Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Telecom Europa VII (agosto - dicembre 2009)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Alobar
So di non sapere...
Fusione nel mobile tra Deutsche Telekom e France Telecom
08/09/2009 10.06 Fusione nel mobile tra Deutsche Telekom e France Telecom
FTA Online News
Deutsche Telekom e France Telecom hanno reso noto in un comunicato congiunto che intendono procedere con la fusione delle proprie divisioni inglesi T-Mobile e Orange. Attraverso la joint venture, nella quale entrambi avranno una quota del 50%, nascerà il maggior operatore di telefonia mobile in Gran Bretagna con una quota di mercato del 37%, superiore sia a quella di Vodafone (25%) sia a quella dell'attuale leader O2, controllato dal colosso spagnolo Telefonica, pari al 27%. Deutsche Telekom stima che le sinergie ottenibili dall'operazione, che si concluderà entro la fine di ottobre dopo aver ottenuto l'ok da parte dell'Authority britannica, saranno pari a oltre 4 miliardi di euro. Il fatturato pro-forma del gruppo per il 2008 sarà pari a circa 9,4 miliardi di euro, con un Ebitda di 2,1 miliardi di euro e un indebitamento di 1,25 miliardi di sterline. (MC)
08/09/2009 10.06 Fusione nel mobile tra Deutsche Telekom e France Telecom
FTA Online News
Deutsche Telekom e France Telecom hanno reso noto in un comunicato congiunto che intendono procedere con la fusione delle proprie divisioni inglesi T-Mobile e Orange. Attraverso la joint venture, nella quale entrambi avranno una quota del 50%, nascerà il maggior operatore di telefonia mobile in Gran Bretagna con una quota di mercato del 37%, superiore sia a quella di Vodafone (25%) sia a quella dell'attuale leader O2, controllato dal colosso spagnolo Telefonica, pari al 27%. Deutsche Telekom stima che le sinergie ottenibili dall'operazione, che si concluderà entro la fine di ottobre dopo aver ottenuto l'ok da parte dell'Authority britannica, saranno pari a oltre 4 miliardi di euro. Il fatturato pro-forma del gruppo per il 2008 sarà pari a circa 9,4 miliardi di euro, con un Ebitda di 2,1 miliardi di euro e un indebitamento di 1,25 miliardi di sterline. (MC)
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
hey mark hai news su HELLAS ???
Perchè a 15, il bond subordinato, se la società ripartisse dopo la ristrutturazione, sarebbe da comprare.
Non capisco tutta questa differenza di prezzo tra i 3 bond : 2012 ad 80 - 2013 a 60 - 2015 a 15.
Aparte appunto la duration e il diverso grado di qualità (gli altri sono senior) però tutta quella differenza è troppoa, secondo me.
O si alza il 2015, o si abbassa, per forza il 2012 e 2013
Imark
Forumer storico
Ecco le ultime news.... La holding di controllo ha 3,2 mld euro di debito, aveva a giugno 32 milioni di euro in cassa e entro 5 settimane deve pagare cedole per 67 mln euro...
Sta cercando di vendere asset, fra cui azioni di Wind Hellas, una delle subholding (cosa ci sarà nella scatola Hellas IV ? boh) e altra roba, e pare che due equity ex proprietarie della società venduta a Sawiris nel 2007 siano disponibili a metterci dei soldi (e certamente si copriranno x volte con le garanzie nel caso i soldi li mettessero davvero).
Poi si aspettano qualche sostegno da parte di Sawiris, affinche addolcisca la inevitabile ristrutturazione del debito...
Qui se si defaulta (situazione direi affatto improbabile...) con il subordinato si recupera zero...
SEPTEMBER 10, 2009, 10:41 A.M. ET
2ND UPDATE:Wind Hellas Contacts Investors About Selling Assets
(Adds further detail of asset sale, background.)
By Ainsley Thomson and Marietta Cauchi
Of Dow Jones Newswires
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The parent company of Greek telecommunications company Wind Hellas Thursday said it has begun contacting strategic and financial investors about selling its assets, as part of a process to restructure the firm's EUR3.2 billion debt pile.
Hellas II said in a statement that it expects to receive expressions of interest during the week of Sept. 21.
The company said the assets it is looking at selling are shares in Wind Hellas and another of its subsidiaries, Hellas IV, as well as intercompany debt.
People familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires Monday that private equity firms TPG and Apax Partners are considering putting new cash into Wind Hellas.
The two buyout firms are former owners of the company, previously known as TIM Hellas, which they sold to Weather Investments SpA, a holding company majority-owned by Egyptian financier Naguib Sawiris, in 2007 for EUR3.4 billion, including some EUR2.9 billion debt.
Hellas II also said it is continuing to hold talks with its shareholder Weather Investments about its potential support or participation in a "transaction to address the current situation."
Wind Hellas, which had a cash balance of EUR32 million as of June 30, has just five weeks before it is due to make a EUR67 million bond coupon payment.
The company also Thursday said it has initiated discussions with creditors about the situation facing Hellas II.
"Hellas II is committed to a transparent and fair process to assess alternatives and Hellas II welcomes any proposals or views from its creditors," the company said, adding that it has also initiated discussions with a number of its largest lenders under its EUR250 million revolving credit facility.
The company said after it has received any expressions of interest from investors or from its shareholder, and received any proposals or views from creditors, it will immediately consider its options and take the appropriate course of action.
"Considering the current liquidity position of the business and its future obligations, the process and any related actions to address strategic alternatives is being conducted on an expedited basis," it said.
Wind Hellas surprised the debt market two weeks ago during its second-quarter results presentation when it said it has limited liquidity and has appointed investment bank Morgan Stanley and financial-services company Ernst & Young as financial advisers to evaluate "strategic alternatives" to its capital structure.
Wind Hellas also moved Hellas II's head office to London from Luxembourg last month.
Credit analysts have speculated that the move was so the company can take advantage of U.K. insolvency laws and restructure its debt using a scheme of arrangement. A scheme of arrangement is a legal proceeding, which requires court approval, that would allow a restructuring to take place with the consent of 75% of the company's creditors and not the traditional 100%.
Last week, when asked whether there was any link between the relocation and the U.K.'s restructuring laws, Wind Hellas spokesman Edward Bridges said the move was for "general corporate planning purposes".
Imark
Forumer storico
Il subordinato poi è una emissione della holding di controllo, appunto la Hellas II che va a defaultare (con ogni probabilità)... il 2012 è della Hellas V e il 2013 della Hellas III ... probabilmente o nella struttura del debito come ripartito fra le varie holding piuttosto che negli asset che hanno in carico ci sono elementi che rafforzano le aspettative di recovery, oppure queste holding potrebbero essere fra gli asset cedibili a qualche soggetto solvibile, portandosi dietro il debito...
Tieni conto che il debito della holding di controllo è strutturalmente subordinato rispetto a quello gravante sulle controllate in caso di default dell'intera catena di controllo...
Tieni conto che il debito della holding di controllo è strutturalmente subordinato rispetto a quello gravante sulle controllate in caso di default dell'intera catena di controllo...
Imark
Forumer storico
Caro Nik, ti è andata di culo, per dirla in volgare: fra i recovery report resi disponibili gratuitamente a marzo del 2008 da S&P (da allora, chi li vuole mette mano al portafoglio) c'era quello della Wind Hellas... e se leggi, capisci bene perché certi prezzi possono essere differenti...
Il grassetto è mio...
PS: già a marzo del 2008, si sapeva che non era un going concern...
Recovery Report: WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A.'s Recovery Rating Profile
Recovery Analyst:
Simon Redmond, London (44) 20-7176-3683;
[email protected]
Primary Credit Analyst:
Melvyn Cooke, Paris (33) 1-4420-6783;
[email protected]
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today assigned a recovery rating to the unsecured debt issues of Greek mobile telecommunications operator WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A., while leaving the issue-level rating on this debt unchanged.
We kept the issue rating on the senior subordinated notes issued by WIND Hellas' wholly owned financial subsidiaries Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III and Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II at 'CCC+', two notches below the 'B' corporate credit rating on the group, and assigned a recovery rating of '6'. The recovery rating indicates our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery for unsecured creditors in the event of a payment default.
The issue rating on the senior secured notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V remains at 'B', at the same level as the corporate credit rating. The recovery rating on these notes is unchanged at '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
Recovery Analysis
WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A. credit profile
The WIND Hellas group has the following debt issues:
Recovery Analysis
Security package
The €250 million revolving credit facility is secured by a super-priority lien. An increase in either the secured notes or the revolving facility, ranking ahead of the secured notes, could have a negative impact on the recovery and issue ratings.
Senior secured floating-rate noteholders at Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V benefit from a priority lien over the shares and virtually all the assets of the companies in the group. In addition, the facilities are guaranteed by certain group companies, including WIND Hellas.
The €355 million subordinated notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III rank third, above the subordinated notes at Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II and the PIK notes at Hellas Telecommunications Finance SARL.
The €355 million subordinated notes are guaranteed by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II and WIND Hellas on a senior subordinated basis and are secured by liens on the shares of WIND Hellas, all intercompany bond loans owed to Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III, and by the bank accounts of the latter.
The €960 million subordinated notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II are secured by liens over the majority, but not all, of this company's equity instruments.
Documentation and covenants
The covenant package under the secured notes includes a negative pledge, limitations on disposals and dividend payouts, and financial covenants governing additional indebtedness.
The documentation for the senior subordinated notes is relatively standard. There is a bullet repayment structure and incurrence covenants, including restrictions on additional debt and dividend payments.
Insolvency regime
The pledged assets consist primarily of the group's network equipment in Greece, which has a relatively unfavorable insolvency regime for secured creditors.
Our view is that distinctive characteristics of particular jurisdictions' insolvency regimes have a significant effect on the amounts ultimately recovered by both secured and unsecured creditors, the time to recover such amounts, and the overall predictability of the process. We therefore cap recovery and issue ratings in countries, such as Greece, where we expect the recovery process and actual recovery rates to be negatively affected by a weak insolvency regime.
Simulated default scenario
To calculate recoveries, Standard & Poor's has simulated a default scenario. We used an enterprise valuation approach because we believe the group would be most likely to default as a result of its high leverage, and lenders would achieve greater value through reorganization than through a liquidation of assets.
In our simulation, a default is unlikely before 2010. We assumed pricing and operating challenges for the Tellas fixed-line asset, and an erosion in the core mobile business' market share amid stiff competition as the market matures, leading to falling revenues. The ensuing limited flexibility to reduce both the cost base and the level of capital expenditure would affect free cash flow generation capacity.
Valuation
Using primarily a discounted cash flow approach, the enterprise value at the point of default is estimated to cover most of the senior secured facilities outstanding.
Nevertheless, although our nominal recovery calculation is higher than 70%, we have assigned a recovery rating of '3' (50%-70% recovery) to take into account the relatively unfavorable insolvency regime for secured creditors in Greece, and potential timeliness issues in the realization of recoveries.
We estimate coverage in the 0%-10% range for the senior subordinated notes, leading to a recovery rating of '6'.
Il grassetto è mio...
PS: già a marzo del 2008, si sapeva che non era un going concern...
Recovery Report: WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A.'s Recovery Rating Profile
Recovery Analyst:
Simon Redmond, London (44) 20-7176-3683;
[email protected]
Primary Credit Analyst:
Melvyn Cooke, Paris (33) 1-4420-6783;
[email protected]
Publication date: 19-Mar-08, 11:14:07 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today assigned a recovery rating to the unsecured debt issues of Greek mobile telecommunications operator WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A., while leaving the issue-level rating on this debt unchanged.
We kept the issue rating on the senior subordinated notes issued by WIND Hellas' wholly owned financial subsidiaries Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III and Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II at 'CCC+', two notches below the 'B' corporate credit rating on the group, and assigned a recovery rating of '6'. The recovery rating indicates our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery for unsecured creditors in the event of a payment default.
The issue rating on the senior secured notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V remains at 'B', at the same level as the corporate credit rating. The recovery rating on these notes is unchanged at '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
Recovery Analysis
WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A. credit profile
The WIND Hellas group has the following debt issues:
- €250 million revolving credit facility (not rated) issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V
- €1.125 billion secured floating-rate callable notes due 2012 issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V
- €355 million callable subordinated notes due 2013 issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III
- $275 million floating-rate callable subordinated notes due 2015 issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II
- €960 million callable subordinated notes due 2015 issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II
- €200 million floating-rate callable subordinated payment-in-kind (PIK) notes due 2015 issued by Hellas Telecommunications Finance SARL
Recovery Analysis
Security package
The €250 million revolving credit facility is secured by a super-priority lien. An increase in either the secured notes or the revolving facility, ranking ahead of the secured notes, could have a negative impact on the recovery and issue ratings.
Senior secured floating-rate noteholders at Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V benefit from a priority lien over the shares and virtually all the assets of the companies in the group. In addition, the facilities are guaranteed by certain group companies, including WIND Hellas.
The €355 million subordinated notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III rank third, above the subordinated notes at Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II and the PIK notes at Hellas Telecommunications Finance SARL.
The €355 million subordinated notes are guaranteed by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II and WIND Hellas on a senior subordinated basis and are secured by liens on the shares of WIND Hellas, all intercompany bond loans owed to Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III, and by the bank accounts of the latter.
The €960 million subordinated notes issued by Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) II are secured by liens over the majority, but not all, of this company's equity instruments.
Documentation and covenants
The covenant package under the secured notes includes a negative pledge, limitations on disposals and dividend payouts, and financial covenants governing additional indebtedness.
The documentation for the senior subordinated notes is relatively standard. There is a bullet repayment structure and incurrence covenants, including restrictions on additional debt and dividend payments.
Insolvency regime
The pledged assets consist primarily of the group's network equipment in Greece, which has a relatively unfavorable insolvency regime for secured creditors.
Our view is that distinctive characteristics of particular jurisdictions' insolvency regimes have a significant effect on the amounts ultimately recovered by both secured and unsecured creditors, the time to recover such amounts, and the overall predictability of the process. We therefore cap recovery and issue ratings in countries, such as Greece, where we expect the recovery process and actual recovery rates to be negatively affected by a weak insolvency regime.
Simulated default scenario
To calculate recoveries, Standard & Poor's has simulated a default scenario. We used an enterprise valuation approach because we believe the group would be most likely to default as a result of its high leverage, and lenders would achieve greater value through reorganization than through a liquidation of assets.
In our simulation, a default is unlikely before 2010. We assumed pricing and operating challenges for the Tellas fixed-line asset, and an erosion in the core mobile business' market share amid stiff competition as the market matures, leading to falling revenues. The ensuing limited flexibility to reduce both the cost base and the level of capital expenditure would affect free cash flow generation capacity.
Valuation
Using primarily a discounted cash flow approach, the enterprise value at the point of default is estimated to cover most of the senior secured facilities outstanding.
Nevertheless, although our nominal recovery calculation is higher than 70%, we have assigned a recovery rating of '3' (50%-70% recovery) to take into account the relatively unfavorable insolvency regime for secured creditors in Greece, and potential timeliness issues in the realization of recoveries.
We estimate coverage in the 0%-10% range for the senior subordinated notes, leading to a recovery rating of '6'.
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
ciao mark, grazie x la delucidazione.
Non ho letto proprio tutto, ma infatti volevo proprio chiederti...
...il dubbio che mi assillava era proprio sulle varie emissioni I - II - III - IV - V...quella che prezza più bassa, essendo Hellas II, non vorrei trovassero un escamotage per abbandonarla a se stessa, mentre gli altri bond bene o male se la caverebbero.
Tu cosa pensi ??? Per me è improbabile un default, vi sarà ristrutturazione del debito sicuro, ma il bond che prezza 15 ???
Può andare bene come andare male ???
Io vedo difficle che lo facciano defaultare : tagli da 100k, in mano ad istituzionali...
...premettiamo che se lo compriamo e va in default, il recovery io lo considero zero.
Ma è il default, che reputo poco probabile.
Imark
Forumer storico
Ciao Nik, se non defaulta, puoi provare a fare holdout sulla ristrutturazione (ossia a tenerti il bond) e sperare che questa abbia successo... il tuo rischio qui è infatti, come notavi, che vada in default la holding Hellas II ... sinceramente non so se il diritto britannico consenta alla holding di andare in default mentre le subholding sono tenute fuori e continuano ad operare... però so anche che - ove invece vi fosse interesse ad aderire ad una eventuale tender offer - dall'Italia tu hai anche il problema di non sapere se sarai legittimato a farlo (vedi ad es. vicenda BAA con 3D sul FOL).
Circa i detentori del debito più drasticamente subordinato, non credo sia oggi in mano ad istituzionali che non siano investitori professionali nel comparto dei bond distressed (i cd. "vulture funds") ... poi c'è da considerare che adesso serve cash, e sia Sawiris, sia le due società di private equity, ove dovessero darne, lo faranno per tramite di una vendita distressed, come scritto dal WSJ... oppure provando a creare l'ennesima categoria di debito garantito... e qui il bond subordinato già è dietro a molte altre...
Scommessa ad alto rischio, puoi provare con i soldi "in più" e se tutto va liscio hai un ritorno molto elevato, altrimenti perdi tutto... se nel tuo profilo di rischio c'è la tolleranza a poste di questo tipo...
- Stato