Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Telecom Europa VIII (Gennaio 2010 - Dicembre 2013)

Eccoci all'IPO di TDC... dovrebbe arrivare nel secondo trimestre 2010, dopo che il pagamento di France Telecom per l'operazione di jv su sunrise avrà consentito un ulteriore abbattimento del debito.

Difficile ipotizzare un ritorno all'IG, ma si dovrebbe restare poco sotto, attorno ad un rating BB+.

L'IPO dovrebbe essere totalitaria, comportando l'uscita completa delle equity firms dal capitale sociale, così come l'altra attesa nel comparto, quella di Kabel Deutschland, che è principalmente una cable company e dove pure le equity firms proprietarie si tirano fuori del tutto.

Un segnale inequivocabile delle loro aspettative sull'andamento dei mercati azionari e sul valore degli asset finanziari nei mesi a venire...


  • FEBRUARY 10, 2010, 2:11 P.M. ET
Denmark's TDC Finalizing Adviser Lineup for IPO - Sources

By Jessica Hodgson and Marietta Cauchi
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Denmark's largest telecoms operator, TDC AS (TDC.KO), is putting the finishing touches to a lineup of advisers ahead of a stock offering which could be worth up to $9 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

TDC is adopting a twin-track process to selecting advisers for the IPO, including international banks and some Nordic banks, and is close to mandating the banks to arrange the share sale, these people said.

Private equity firms Blackstone Group, Permira, Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co., Providence and Apax Partners, who own just under 90% of TDC, haven't yet decided on a full exit from the business.

However, a full IPO is considered the most likely option. In contrast with some recent planned floats, in which interest from trade or private equity bidders has emerged late on, a stock offering is considered the most likely outcome for the company, these people say.

John Strand, a Denmark-based telecoms consultant who has followed the process, said that a sale to either private equity or a trade buyer is unlikely. "Few (trade) players want to get into the Danish market, particularly as a big part of TDC's business is fixed-line," Strand said. Two Nordic rivals, Sweden's TeliaSonera AB (TLSN.SK) and Norway's Telenor ASA (TELNY), who might otherwise be interested, would almost certainly be blocked on antitrust grounds, Strand said.

The planned offering also comes amid growing concern that the global IPO market, which had shown signs of renewed vigor towards the end of 2009, may now be on a less secure footing, with some deals pricing poorly and others getting cancelled as markets remain volatile.

Another planned IPO, of German cable operator Kabel Deutschland, has prompted six private equity firms to submit bids for the company worth roughly EUR5 billion, several people familiar with the situation told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.

Local investment banks Danske Bank AS (DANKSE.KO), Nordea Bank AB (NDA.SK) and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB-A.SK) are currently expected to handle Nordic stock placing of TDC. A group of international banks, including JP Morgan (JPM), Deutsche Bank (DB), Credit Suisse (CS), UBS (UBS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) has been short-listed, but it remains unclear whether any of these banks have been mandated.

People familiar with the matter say TDC's IPO could take place as early as the second quarter of 2010.

The private equity owners bought most of TDC in a 115 billion Danish crown (GBP22.47 billion) deal in 2005. The company provides residential fixed-line and mobile voice, Internet and TV services in Denmark and is the second largest communications provider in Switzerland after Swisscom AG (SCMWY). It had 11.7 million customers at the end of 2009, according to the company Web site. Total 2009 revenue was 35.9 billion Danish crowns.
 
Per non perdere le buone abitudini, recupererei la trimestrale Q4/2009 di KPN, arrivata mentre non c'ero...

Segnalo che c'è stato un calo non indifferente del fatturato, pari al 6,9% y-o-y, e come tale calo sia stato imputato all'incidenza del segmento corporate, che genera circa 1/3 del giro di affari di KPN e che ha segnato un declino sensibile.

Viceversa il segmento consumer, a detta di KPN, non avrebbe risentito significativamente della crisi economica, così confermando il carattere difensivo del comparto e la natura dei consumi telefonici quali consumi di base sui mercati europei avanzati.

Sul piano dei risultati, il calo del fatturato non ha tuttavia inciso sull'EBITDA, che mostra invece una crescita da ricondurre al buon lavoro fatto sui costi, tant'è che il dato del trimestre segna una crescita a quota 1,31 mld euro contro gli 1,28 mld euro del Q4/2008.

Secondo KPN l'andamento dei risultati del business nel segmento corporate non mostrerebbe ulteriori tendenze al deterioramento ed anzi emergerebbero i primi segnali di una possibile ripresa, seppure in un contesto macroeconomico che è ancora improntato ad un drastico riassetto connotato da livelli di bassa crescita.


  • JANUARY 26, 2010, 7:32 A.M. ET
KPN Predicts Fragile Recovery

AMSTERDAM -- Dutch telecommunications company KPN NV Tuesday said it is seeing the first signs of recovery in its markets and expects operating earnings to grow this year and next, even though the economic recovery will be fragile.

KPN reported lower revenue for the fourth quarter but higher earnings due mainly to a tax gain. The company launched a new €1 billion ($1.41 billion) share buyback for this year and signalled it would pay a higher dividend next year. It also reiterated its previously set financial targets for this year.

KPN has focused on cutting costs over the past two years, enabling it to buy back shares and increase dividends despite declining revenues. It has also focused on generating solid cash flow and improving profitability.

The cost cutting and a €705 million tax gain in Germany meant net profit rose to €1.09 billion in the three months to Dec 31, up from €295 million a year earlier.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, KPN's key performance measure, was €1.31 billion, up from €1.28 billion a year earlier.

However, revenue fell 9.3% to €3.37 billion, from €3.72 billion, partly due to disposals. On a comparable basis sales declined by 6.9%. Analysts had expected €3.44 billion in fourth quarter revenue.

The company, which earns about one third of its revenue from business customers, said its operations in the consumer markets haven't seen a significant impact from the economic downturn, but the impact has clearly been visible in the business segment.

However, it said it is seeing early signs of a recovery in the euro zone, the US and Japan and said its business operations are currently showed no signs of further deterioration. Signalling caution, it warned that macro economic indicators still point to a "sustained adjustment."
 
Se fossi nelle vesti di Telefonica, non so se avrei interesse a farlo, specie se la fusione facesse seguito ad uno scorporo pieno della rete, che si tradurrebbe per Telecom Italia nella perdita del rating IG, visto che le agenzie di rating hanno detto da tempo che varrebbe almeno un paio di livelli di rating.

Beh, bisognerebbe anche capire quanto debito verrebbe scaricato sulla società creata per gestire la rete.
 
Beh, bisognerebbe anche capire quanto debito verrebbe scaricato sulla società creata per gestire la rete.

Questo è vero ... c'è poi da capire cosa fare in prospettiva dell'avviamento consistente generato dalle passate operazioni finanziarie condotte a beneficio di capitani più o meno coraggiosi e dei loro sponsor politici... sebbene questo fattore (ma non lo scorporo della rete, secondo me) sia prezzato nei corsi attuali dell'equity.

Il problema di fondo è che per gli ex incumbent della telefonia europea la gestione della rete è considerata a tal punto strategica che ad oggi solo British Telecom è andata al pieno scorporo funzionale (ma non proprietario, tuttavia, nel senso che la rete viene gestita da una divisione del tutto autonoma, con management non nominato da BT, ma con proprietà che resta in capo alla telecom), e nessuna altra telecom europea ha neanche ipotizzato uno scorporo della proprietà della rete in una società autonoma.
 
Non so se serve ma ce una contestazione per la ristrutturazione del debito di Wind Hellas da parte dei creditori.Mi sembra che qualcuno era interessato tempo fa per la
vicenda.Se no lo cancello
La questione ha evidenziato l'edizione elettronica del Times di Londra.

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Eh, sarà difficile che la procedura britannica sia invalidata... le agenzie di rating danno per cosa fatta la ristrutturazione del debito juniores di Wind Hellas.

La situazione della liquidità resta debole nonostante la cancellazione del debito juniores riduca di circa il 50% il peso degli interessi debitori della telecom greca.

La società genererà free cash flow già nel 2010, ma poi nel 2012 arriva a scadenza debito per 1,4 mld euro, il che lascia assumere, secondo S&P, che si vada all'offerta di un distressed exchange sul debito già nel prossimo biennio, onde ridurre ulteriormente il fardello del debito.

L'infusione di cash effettuata da Weather investment (pari a 125 mln euro, dei quali però 75 mln euro già svaniti in fees pagate ai creditori seniores ed altre analoghe) basterà appena per pochi mesi.

Mobile Telecoms Operator WIND Hellas Raised To 'CCC+' On Improved Liquidity After Junior Debt Write-Off; Outlook Stable


  • Greek mobile telecommunications operator WIND Hellas has emerged from insolvency proceedings, following U.K. court approval of its capital restructuring plan, including writing off about €1.4 billion of junior debt and a €125 million equity contribution from owner Weather
    Investments S.p.a, which are serving to improve the group's liquidity.
  • We are raising our ratings on WIND Hellas and related entities to 'CCC+' from 'SD' (selective default).
  • We are raising our issue ratings to 'CCC+' from 'CC' on the senior
    secured notes due 2012, and to 'CCC-' from 'C' on the senior unsecured notes due 2013.
  • The stable outlook mainly reflects our view that group will likely meet
    its financial obligations for the next couple of years, but also takes
    into account the significant operating pressures we expect to persist for some time and the challenges of the group's high refinancing needs in 2012.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 8, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it raised its long-term corporate credit ratings on Greek mobile telecommunications operator WIND Hellas Telecommunications S.A. and related entities to 'CCC+' from 'SD' (selective default).

At the same time, we raised to 'CCC+' from 'CC' our issue rating on the €1.22 billion senior secured notes due 2012 issued by WIND Hellas' wholly owned financial subsidiary Hellas Telecommunications (Luxembourg) V. The recovery rating on the notes is unchanged at '3', indicating our expectation of meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the event of a payment default.

We also raised to 'CCC-' from 'C' our issue rating on subsidiary Hellas
Telecommunications (Luxembourg) III's €355 million senior unsecured notes due 2013. The recovery rating on the notes is unchanged at '6', indicating our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery for unsecured creditors in the event of a payment default.

"The upgrade mainly reflects WIND Hellas' emergence out of U.K. insolvency proceedings, as well as its improved liquidity following completion of its capital restructuring," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Melvyn Cooke. "We think the ensuing junior debt write-off is likely to nearly halve the group's interest payments, despite the higher margin we understand WIND Hellas consented to senior lenders, and enable the group to generate positive free cash flow in 2010."

In addition, owner Weather Investments' €125 million equity injection (of
which about €75 million was used in consent fees and other ancillary costs as part of the restructuring) has strengthened the group's cash balances.

We believe, however, that the group's liquidity remains weak considering the upcoming 2012 debt maturity of about €1.4 billion and the current soft
operating performance, which, in our opinion, cap the ratings at the 'CCC+'
level in the short term.

WIND Hellas emerged from bankruptcy in late November 2009 after a U.K. court approved the group's capital restructuring plan through a pre-packaged administration sale. The group's reported debt currently stands at about €1.8 billion, versus roughly €3.3 billion prior to the capital restructuring.

"The stable outlook primarily incorporates our view that WIND Hellas will
likely meet its financial obligations for the next couple of years, but also
takes into account the significant operating pressures we expect to persist
for some time and the challenges of the group's high refinancing needs in
2012," said Mr. Cooke.

Over the medium term, we view WIND Hellas' capital structure as hardly
sustainable, especially given the group's current soft operating performance.

We acknowledge that we have no indication from WIND Hellas that management intends to explore a distressed exchange offer. However, in our view, in the current market environment, the group's soft operating trends, and its highly-leveraged capital structure point to the potential likelihood of a distressed exchange offer prior to the 2012 maturities, which, under our criteria, we would view as tantamount to default.

We could downgrade WIND Hellas if operating performance or liquidity
deteriorates further, with no prospects for future improvement, or if we were to perceive that the group was contemplating a distressed exchange offer.

Given the expected pressure on WIND Hellas' revenues in 2010 and the
unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Greece, we believe a positive rating action is unlikely during the coming months.
 
Telenor in osservazione dopo la decisione di ripristinare il pagamento di un dividendo nel 2010 per l'anno 2009. Una scelta che amplifica il profilo di rischio finanziario nel momento in cui Telenor si trova esposta all'esigenza di far fronte ad eventuali difficoltà finanziarie legate al consistente investimento operato di recente sul mercato indiano.

Norwegian Telecoms Provider 'A-' L-T Ratings On CreditWatch Neg On Proposed Dividend Payout; 'A-2' S-T Rating Affirmed

  • We think Norwegian telecoms provider Telenor's unexpected decision to resume dividend payments in 2010, earlier than we anticipated, could signal a financial policy that might not be in line with the current ratings.
  • We are putting the 'A-' long-term corporate credit and issue ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications.
  • We are affirming the short-term rating, because any lowering of the
    long-term ratings would be unlikely to exceed one notch.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 10, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it placed its 'A-' long-term corporate credit and issue ratings on Norway-based telecommunications provider Telenor ASA on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we affirmed the 'A-2' short-term rating.

"The CreditWatch placement follows Telenor's announced dividend proposal of Norwegian krone 2.5 per share, or a total of NOK4.1 billion, to be paid in
2010," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Xavier Buffon.

This resumption of dividend payments is sooner than we expected; our ratings had factored in the assumption, founded on management's previous guidance, that dividends distributed to parent company shareholders would likely again be suspended this year.

"In our view, the decision could signal a financial policy that might no
longer be in line with the current ratings," said Mr. Buffon. "In particular,
we think a mismatch exists between the medium-term horizon of Telenor's
investment in India, which we consider bears execution and financial risks,
and the decision to reward shareholders in the short term, based in part on a stronger-than-expected balance sheet at year-end 2009."

The ratings on Telenor continue to reflect our view of the company's strong domestic fixed-line and mobile businesses and solid cash generation. They also integrate our perception of a "moderate" likelihood of timely and sufficient extraordinary support for Telenor from the Kingdom of Norway (AAA/Stable/A-1+) in the event of financial distress.

These strengths are offset by risks that we consider material associated with the company's Indian investment, persistent competitive and regulatory pressures in Telenor's Nordic markets, and the volatility in and the company's partial ownership of international mobile businesses.

In our view, international mobile activities, although growing and diversified, generally have weak business profiles, are often partly owned, and in Telenor's case, expose it to significant foreign-exchange and country-related risks.

The 'A-' rating on Telenor is based on the company's stand-alone credit
profile (SACP), which we assess at 'BBB+'. In addition, we factor in one notch from the SACP to reflect our opinion that there is a "moderate" likelihood that the Norwegian government would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to Telenor in the event of financial distress if needed.

At Dec. 31, 2009, Telenor had gross unadjusted consolidated debt of NOK 39 billion.

We intend to meet with management before resolving the CreditWatch status.

"Telenor's stance on financial policy will in our view likely be a key driver
of the ultimate rating outcome, which we expect to be either a one-notch
downgrade or an affirmation of the current long-term ratings," said Mr.
Buffon.

The company's ability to maintain a fully adjusted (according to our methodology) debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the 2.5x-3x range--after the impact to come from the investments in India--is also an important rating factor.

Still, gauging whether Telenor is able to sustain the ratio within this range means that we would likely factor into forecasts a significant cushion for absorbing any unanticipated risk events, such as execution issues in India and potential sharp currency swings, among others.
 
sono in attesa di capire come faranno l'IPO: se le equity firms dovessero uscire del tutto, valuterei se tenerlo oppure venderlo... se invece dovessero fare cassa solo riducendo la loro quota, terrei.

Eccoci all'IPO di TDC... dovrebbe arrivare nel secondo trimestre 2010, dopo che il pagamento di France Telecom per l'operazione di jv su sunrise avrà consentito un ulteriore abbattimento del debito.
L'IPO dovrebbe essere totalitaria, comportando l'uscita completa delle equity firms dal capitale sociale

Riporto all'inizio il tuo intervento di inizio gennaio. Ne devo dedurre che, vista l'uscita delle equity firms, consideri opportuna un'uscita?
 
Riporto all'inizio il tuo intervento di inizio gennaio. Ne devo dedurre che, vista l'uscita delle equity firms, consideri opportuna un'uscita?

Sono tentato, per una serie di motivi... la società resterà ad azionariato diffuso e questo credo ridurrà la velocità di deleverage e potrebbe anche portare a politiche di tipo opposto, nulla sapendosi di quali strategie saranno attuate dai futuri proprietari (probabilmente, pacchetti azionari consistenti finirebbero sotto il controllo di fondi di investimento, non di rado con ridotta capacità di pressione nei confronti del management) mentre se fosse oggetto di un'acquisizione a debito (circostanza tuttavia improbabile) la situazione del rating peggiorerebbe.

Poi c'è l'andamento prospettico dell'HY... non è che veda rischi default per TDC, anzi devo dire che la cessione dell'ultima porzione della jv svizzera dovrebbe portare in cassa ancora 1,2 mld euro attorno al 2012, solo credo che i bond potrebbero cedere terreno insieme con il comparto speculativo...
 
Grazie del chiarimento! Certo, per il Nordic 2016 a TV (che non mi è poi stato rimborsato) tutto questo potrebbe avere un peso nel tempo... Magari provo a rientrare nel TDC 2012, che dà ancora un rendimento buono, visti i tempi.
 
Grazie del chiarimento! Certo, per il Nordic 2016 a TV (che non mi è poi stato rimborsato) tutto questo potrebbe avere un peso nel tempo... Magari provo a rientrare nel TDC 2012, che dà ancora un rendimento buono, visti i tempi.

Ah, quello mi viene da dire che è a prova di bomba... stornasse insieme con il resto dell'HY, sarebbe una buying opportunity, visto che l'importo ancora da rimborsare è contenuto, e scade prima del debito bancario, che va in maturazione nel 2014...
 

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