NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures climbed to two-week highs Tuesday as an expected uptick in heating needs in the upper Midwest and increased power demand in the South lifted the demand outlook for the heating and power-plant fuel.
Natural gas for May delivery settled 12.4 cents, or 3%, higher, at $4.262 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the largest percentage gain since March 25.
Though weather-driven gas demand typically declines with mild weather in the spring, unusual cold in parts of the northern U.S. and warmth in the south this week are expected to increase demand for the fuel.
Daily highs near 90 degrees are expected this week in Dallas and Houston, forecaster MDA EarthSat says, with the warmer-than-normal temperatures expected to last into next week. Texas accounts for about 20% of U.S. gas demand for electricity generation, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Meanwhile, colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to last through this weekend across much of the Northwest and upper-Midwest, likely leading to some late-season gas-heating needs.
Futures also drew support from the large amount of scheduled outages at U.S. nuclear power plants, analysts said. Natural gas-fired power stations are usually called upon to supply additional power when nuclear plants undergo maintenance.
Almost 30,000 megawatts of nuclear generation capacity is offline this week, Gelber & Associates analyst Pax Saunders said in a research note, 20% more than the five-year average.
Futures have been bound in a narrow range just above $4/MMBtu in recent weeks, as the market searches for direction during spring's seasonal dip in demand for the fuel.
"We're still trading in a channel here," said Jimmy Tintle, a broker and analyst with Transworld Futures in Tampa.
The weather-driven boost to prices is likely to be limited, analysts say, as mild weather toward the end of April and strong production weigh on market sentiment.
North American production is widely expected to quickly refill U.S. inventories, and analysts are keeping a close watch on drilling rig counts for signs that producers are pulling back to limit supply growth amid low gas prices.
There were 885 drilling rigs seeking natural gas in the U.S. last week, Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday, down by four from the previous week. Declines toward the 800 mark are thought to be necessary to reverse the trend of production growth and balance the well supplied U.S. market.
Open interest in natural gas futures hit a record high of 983,802 contracts Monday, said CME Group Inc. (CME), operator of the Nymex, surpassing the previous record of 982,208 reached March 1. Average open interest so far this year is 896,907.