NicOx.... in attesa di.....
- Creatore Discussione DickSIM
- Data di Inizio
PIZZODIGINO
Pacifico
Valeant: I Was Serious - The Clock Is Ticking
Dec.19.17 | About: Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)
Michael Wiggins De Oliveira
Long only, value, contrarian
Get email alerts
(3,567 followers)
Summary
Valeant is markedly less risky than it was a short year ago, and likely to return to growth in 2019.
Debt profile is more diversified and controllable.
Its valuation remains unreasonably cheap; long-term investors will benefit the most.
Investment Thesis
In December 2016, I wrote an article entitled 'Valeant Is A Great Investment To Start 2017'. In that article, I opened it by stating the following,
I will ask you to do the most difficult thing investors are asked to do: put your emotions aside and ignore everything you know or think you know about Valeant (VRX) and simply focus on the facts and figures from its financials.
On that day, the stock traded at just under $15 per share and I concluded that article by saying,
Although VRX will continue to suffer from negative press and investor stigma over the next 12-18 months, in time, investors will return to the stock. I expect an appreciation on this stock of at least 70% over the next two years.
And although Valeant's shares have rallied a little in the past several weeks, and are nicely positive from the $15 per share when I originally recommended investing in it, in the past twelve months, I have seen Valeant's share fall by nearly 50%. However, today, I genuinely believe that Valeant is a significantly less risky investment that it was back in December 2016.
Pipeline
Presently Valeant's pipeline is relatively slim. Valeant's pipeline is predominantly focused on two main drugs: VYZULTA and IDP-118.
VYZULTA is used to treat open-angle glaucoma. Its long awaited commercial launch finally arrived on Monday, Valeant released a press statement notifying stakeholders that U.S. wholesale pharmacies should expect the drug immanently. This innovative drug will fit under its eye medicine portfolio as part of B+L's segment.
The other drug, for which Valeant has big hopes, is IDP-118, a topical location for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, with a provisional launch date of June 2018.
Additionally, while less meaningful in absolute terms, however still important for Valeant's overall strategy, are Valeant's efforts at solidifying its leading market-share in Asia. Recently it has embarked on the launches of two contact lens products, directly under its B+L segment. More specifically, its launch of AQUALOX contact lenses in Japan, earlier in September. As well as in China, currently under review, are its ULTRA contact lenses. Thus, while Valeant benefited from 50 product launches during 2017, which boosted its free cash flow during 2017, only a hand full are expected to be launched in 2018 - leaving investors anxious as they await its 2018 guidance
Dec.19.17 | About: Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)
Michael Wiggins De Oliveira
Long only, value, contrarian
Get email alerts
(3,567 followers)
Summary
Valeant is markedly less risky than it was a short year ago, and likely to return to growth in 2019.
Debt profile is more diversified and controllable.
Its valuation remains unreasonably cheap; long-term investors will benefit the most.
Investment Thesis
In December 2016, I wrote an article entitled 'Valeant Is A Great Investment To Start 2017'. In that article, I opened it by stating the following,
I will ask you to do the most difficult thing investors are asked to do: put your emotions aside and ignore everything you know or think you know about Valeant (VRX) and simply focus on the facts and figures from its financials.
On that day, the stock traded at just under $15 per share and I concluded that article by saying,
Although VRX will continue to suffer from negative press and investor stigma over the next 12-18 months, in time, investors will return to the stock. I expect an appreciation on this stock of at least 70% over the next two years.
And although Valeant's shares have rallied a little in the past several weeks, and are nicely positive from the $15 per share when I originally recommended investing in it, in the past twelve months, I have seen Valeant's share fall by nearly 50%. However, today, I genuinely believe that Valeant is a significantly less risky investment that it was back in December 2016.
Pipeline
Presently Valeant's pipeline is relatively slim. Valeant's pipeline is predominantly focused on two main drugs: VYZULTA and IDP-118.
VYZULTA is used to treat open-angle glaucoma. Its long awaited commercial launch finally arrived on Monday, Valeant released a press statement notifying stakeholders that U.S. wholesale pharmacies should expect the drug immanently. This innovative drug will fit under its eye medicine portfolio as part of B+L's segment.
The other drug, for which Valeant has big hopes, is IDP-118, a topical location for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, with a provisional launch date of June 2018.
Additionally, while less meaningful in absolute terms, however still important for Valeant's overall strategy, are Valeant's efforts at solidifying its leading market-share in Asia. Recently it has embarked on the launches of two contact lens products, directly under its B+L segment. More specifically, its launch of AQUALOX contact lenses in Japan, earlier in September. As well as in China, currently under review, are its ULTRA contact lenses. Thus, while Valeant benefited from 50 product launches during 2017, which boosted its free cash flow during 2017, only a hand full are expected to be launched in 2018 - leaving investors anxious as they await its 2018 guidance
guly
Forumer storico
si ma devi essere bravo a scappare perche' nessuno vorra' azioni valeant e quindi ci saranno forti vendite su nicox che porteranno il titolo ad un crollo immediato.
lascia perdere che le operazioni carta contro carta sono buone per gli arbitraggisti,ai piccoli gli fanno il sedere rosso.
POI CERTO SE TU SEI BRAVO A VENDERE PRIMA.....ALLORA TI SALVI.
PIZZODIGINO
Pacifico
Ad oggi la Valeant vale 7.500.000.000 di $ e scambia in borsa mediamente 340.000.000 di $ al giorno.
In base alle cifre sopra esposte, possiamo dire che un eventuale cambio carta contro carta con Nicox, non comporterebbe particolari scossoni al prezzo di Valeant. Resto però convinto che Valeant non possa fare alcuna operazione del genere a causa del suo debito mostruoso.
tradermen
Forumer storico
che le operazioni carta contro carta e meglio nn averle mai..questo e vero , anche se ci possono essere eccezioni.....ma e anche vero che ti portano a valutare l' azienda un po di piu nn tirando fuori nessun $....
che ci sia un crollo di azioni nicox , nn ci credo affatto , lo escluderei immediatamente , magari essendo carta contro carta nn si avvicinera al prezzo di valutazione.. puo essere il contrario , cioe al momento della fusione possa perdere l' azione valeant, ma anche in questo caso essendo la diluizione minima nn penso che avvenga...anzi a volte capita il contrario e nn e detto che portandosi a casa nicox valeant scenda...
poi , ogni caso in borsa fa storia a se....importante e che ci sia la volonta e le capacita di valeant o di qualsiasi altro gruppo di papparsi nicox.., sperando che la valutazione sia congrua
tradermen
Forumer storico
direi un po di piu..... 9.329,00 mil di $
tradermen
Forumer storico
quindi valutando anche nicox 500 mil si avrebbe una diluizione di appena 6%...quindi il mercato sicuramente l ' apprezzera...
PIZZODIGINO
Pacifico
Un augurio a ciascuno di voi di passare un Santo Natale in pace ed armonia insieme ai vostri cari.
viralic
Forumer storico
Capitalizzazione di Valeant al 22 dicembre: 7,5 bilioni di dollari.
VRX : Riepilogo per Valeant Pharmaceuticals Interna - Yahoo Finanza
