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Il downgrade di Moody's sui rating dei bond croati in kune. La manovra finanziaria croata mirata a contenere il deficit pubblico, secondo l'agenzia, è basata su stime di crescita (o meglio di calo) dell'economia troppo ottimistiche rispetto allo scenario più verosimile ed è pertanto inadeguata; l'assistenza del FMI è stata rifiutata.
Si renderebbe necessario, secondo Moody's disporre una manovra finanziaria aggiuntiva di aggiustamento.
La sua assenza potrebbe avere l'effetto di favorire manovre speculative contro la kuna, con la conseguenza di una difesa del cambio che intaccherebbe le riserve valutarie croate (se va bene) oppure che si tradurrebbe in una marcata svalutazione della kuna, molto problematica stante l'esposizione debitoria esterna dello stato croato, del sistema bancario e dei privati denominata in valute estere, prevalentemente l'euro.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's Downgrades Croatia's Local Currency Rating to Baa3[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 17 April 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the local currency government bond rating of the Republic of Croatia to Baa3 from Baa2. The outlook is stable. Moody's also affirmed the Baa3 foreign currency government bond rating, so the two ratings are now unified at Baa3/stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The decision to downgrade Croatia's local currency government rating reflects Moody's opinion that the Croatian authorities' response to the deterioration in the growth and budget outlook has been lagged and likely inadequate and that the process of unifying our local currency and foreign currency bond ratings would be unlikely to end up in their converging at the higher rating" says Anthony Thomas, Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Government recently announced a package of spending cuts with the aim of limiting the budget deficit this year to 1,5% of GDP, but Moody's believes that the revised -2% growth forecast may still be too optimistic and so the budget deficit outturn would be quite a bit larger than the government projects. Accordingly, a further round of budget adjustments is likely to be required. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The government's debt affordability is reasonable at present, with debt to revenues at just over 90%. Moody's says Croatia's main vulnerability is its large and highly compressed external debt -- roughly a third of which matures this year -- and a heavily euroized banking system. Any perceived failure to take prompt and resolute fiscal action could renew speculative pressure on the exchange rate, with at least two possible negative outcomes: either a sizeable loss of reserves (least worst case) or, in the event that such intervention fails, a devaluation that significantly increases the size and cost of servicing the external debt for both the public and private sectors. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"This close linkage between the government's fiscal situation and its potential to spill over to exacerbate the country's external vulnerabilities means there is no longer a justification for the gap between the government's local currency and foreign currency debt ratings for Croatia," says Mr Thomas. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Mr Thomas also points out that Croatia lacks an explicit external anchor as it is not yet a member of the European Union and has not sought IMF assistance (nor does it want to). However, as an EU candidate country with strong connections to core Europe, EU assistance would likely be forthcoming to supplement IMF financial support should the situation change. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Aside from the downgrade of the government's local currency debt rating, no other ratings were changed in today's action. Croatia's country ceilings remain unchanged at A1 for foreign currency debt and Ba1 for foreign currency deposits and the local currency country ceilings remain Aa1for debt and A1 for bank deposits. All outlooks are stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on Croatia was on 19 November 2008, when Moody's lowered the Government's local currency debt rating to Baa2 from Baa1 and changed the outlook on Croatia's Baa3 foreign currency government debt rating to stable from positive[/FONT]
Si renderebbe necessario, secondo Moody's disporre una manovra finanziaria aggiuntiva di aggiustamento.
La sua assenza potrebbe avere l'effetto di favorire manovre speculative contro la kuna, con la conseguenza di una difesa del cambio che intaccherebbe le riserve valutarie croate (se va bene) oppure che si tradurrebbe in una marcata svalutazione della kuna, molto problematica stante l'esposizione debitoria esterna dello stato croato, del sistema bancario e dei privati denominata in valute estere, prevalentemente l'euro.
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's Downgrades Croatia's Local Currency Rating to Baa3[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]London, 17 April 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the local currency government bond rating of the Republic of Croatia to Baa3 from Baa2. The outlook is stable. Moody's also affirmed the Baa3 foreign currency government bond rating, so the two ratings are now unified at Baa3/stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The decision to downgrade Croatia's local currency government rating reflects Moody's opinion that the Croatian authorities' response to the deterioration in the growth and budget outlook has been lagged and likely inadequate and that the process of unifying our local currency and foreign currency bond ratings would be unlikely to end up in their converging at the higher rating" says Anthony Thomas, Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The Government recently announced a package of spending cuts with the aim of limiting the budget deficit this year to 1,5% of GDP, but Moody's believes that the revised -2% growth forecast may still be too optimistic and so the budget deficit outturn would be quite a bit larger than the government projects. Accordingly, a further round of budget adjustments is likely to be required. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The government's debt affordability is reasonable at present, with debt to revenues at just over 90%. Moody's says Croatia's main vulnerability is its large and highly compressed external debt -- roughly a third of which matures this year -- and a heavily euroized banking system. Any perceived failure to take prompt and resolute fiscal action could renew speculative pressure on the exchange rate, with at least two possible negative outcomes: either a sizeable loss of reserves (least worst case) or, in the event that such intervention fails, a devaluation that significantly increases the size and cost of servicing the external debt for both the public and private sectors. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"This close linkage between the government's fiscal situation and its potential to spill over to exacerbate the country's external vulnerabilities means there is no longer a justification for the gap between the government's local currency and foreign currency debt ratings for Croatia," says Mr Thomas. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Mr Thomas also points out that Croatia lacks an explicit external anchor as it is not yet a member of the European Union and has not sought IMF assistance (nor does it want to). However, as an EU candidate country with strong connections to core Europe, EU assistance would likely be forthcoming to supplement IMF financial support should the situation change. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Aside from the downgrade of the government's local currency debt rating, no other ratings were changed in today's action. Croatia's country ceilings remain unchanged at A1 for foreign currency debt and Ba1 for foreign currency deposits and the local currency country ceilings remain Aa1for debt and A1 for bank deposits. All outlooks are stable. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on Croatia was on 19 November 2008, when Moody's lowered the Government's local currency debt rating to Baa2 from Baa1 and changed the outlook on Croatia's Baa3 foreign currency government debt rating to stable from positive[/FONT]
