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Oro e Argento (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Rommel
- Data di Inizio
MM(mistermib)
Forumer storico
Articolo di Barron's, consigli per impostare una strategia sul silver con pochi ghelli e possibili ritorni a 3 cifre...............
The Striking Price
| SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2011
A Play for the Silver Lining
By STEVEN M. SEARS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The metal's bumpy week suggests a contrarian trade on the iShares Silver Trust.
Silver is radioactive. Put on your meltdown suit. Buy the panic.
Consider buying June $36 calls on the iShares Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) and selling the June $40 call—a pure contrarian trade that takes advantage of the chaos and fear that at one point lopped as much as 25% off SLV's value during the week. SLV's sharp decline stopped Friday at 34.88. Implied volatility, the key part of an options-pricing model, declined about nine points, but remained unusually high, and plump for the picking. The trick is making sure you do not get hurt if you are wrong.
The June call spread minimizes risks and maximizes potential profits. The position cost $1.25 a share when SLV traded at $35. If the stock rises to $40, the trade returns 220%. If the stock falls—and there is a sense among some senior traders that silver's sweet spot is $25 to $30—you lose only $1.25.
Why $25 to $30? It's a gut trade based on SLV's erratic action; enough top traders mentioned the range to make it worth citing here. It's hard to find anyone who really knows what silver is worth. "Silver is the ultimate Internet stock," said one trader from his leafy lair in Greenwich, Conn.
Still, buying fear can prove profitable, because it often indicates that the weak hands have sold. The panic was flamed during the week by several margin-rate hikes in the futures market where physical silver trades. SLV is an exchange-traded fund that holds silver commodities in the stock market. Just as SLV seemed rich near $50 just last Friday, the sharp declines seem overdone—at least in the short term, and maybe even longer.
Talks with several seasoned traders reveal disagreement about when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Many people think the Fed could raise rates later this year, or early next year. But some say that may not happen because of lingering unemployment. If rates stay low longer than expected, prices for commodities such as silver, which are denominated in dollars, should rise.
The pressure aligned against silver was exacerbated by Wednesday's release of data from the Institute of Supply Management, which measures U.S. economic growth and frames business cycles. The weak report prompted many institutional investors to push the "risk-off" button and exit silver trades that so many bought a few years ago in anticipation of a U.S. economic recovery.
Wednesday's ISM report was the weakest relative to expectations since 2008, and the sixth weakest since 1999, according to Bespoke Investment Group. ISM's index slipped to 52.8 in April, from 57.3 in March.
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategist, told clients in a research note Wednesday that ISM's acceleration rates slowed to neutral compared with last year's reading. "A high level of growth argues for continued cyclical exposure, while deceleration suggests a more defensive posture in Standard & Poor's 500 sectors," he said. The decline in developed markets' industrial production is occurring as emerging markets' production shows early recovery signs. "That shift in the timing/balance of growth in favor of developing economies favors a shift into U.S. equities with higher international sales exposure," he said.
Many investors first bought silver in 2009 to benefit from the U.S. economy emerging from the credit crisis of 2007. A recovering economy would need silver for making batteries, electronics, medical applications and solar energy.
In 2009, SLV was around $17, and gold was the rage as a hedge against the Fed's decision to lower interest rates to help jump-start the economy. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) soon rallied to new highs, while silver quietly attracted institutional investors. Silver's price rise ultimately was fueled also by less sophisticated investors, who then helped push it into sharp decline. Now, it's hard to say what silver is worth, but it's safe to say losers always come back to Vegas.
The Striking Price
| SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2011
A Play for the Silver Lining
By STEVEN M. SEARS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The metal's bumpy week suggests a contrarian trade on the iShares Silver Trust.
Silver is radioactive. Put on your meltdown suit. Buy the panic.
Consider buying June $36 calls on the iShares Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) and selling the June $40 call—a pure contrarian trade that takes advantage of the chaos and fear that at one point lopped as much as 25% off SLV's value during the week. SLV's sharp decline stopped Friday at 34.88. Implied volatility, the key part of an options-pricing model, declined about nine points, but remained unusually high, and plump for the picking. The trick is making sure you do not get hurt if you are wrong.
The June call spread minimizes risks and maximizes potential profits. The position cost $1.25 a share when SLV traded at $35. If the stock rises to $40, the trade returns 220%. If the stock falls—and there is a sense among some senior traders that silver's sweet spot is $25 to $30—you lose only $1.25.
Why $25 to $30? It's a gut trade based on SLV's erratic action; enough top traders mentioned the range to make it worth citing here. It's hard to find anyone who really knows what silver is worth. "Silver is the ultimate Internet stock," said one trader from his leafy lair in Greenwich, Conn.
Still, buying fear can prove profitable, because it often indicates that the weak hands have sold. The panic was flamed during the week by several margin-rate hikes in the futures market where physical silver trades. SLV is an exchange-traded fund that holds silver commodities in the stock market. Just as SLV seemed rich near $50 just last Friday, the sharp declines seem overdone—at least in the short term, and maybe even longer.
Talks with several seasoned traders reveal disagreement about when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Many people think the Fed could raise rates later this year, or early next year. But some say that may not happen because of lingering unemployment. If rates stay low longer than expected, prices for commodities such as silver, which are denominated in dollars, should rise.
The pressure aligned against silver was exacerbated by Wednesday's release of data from the Institute of Supply Management, which measures U.S. economic growth and frames business cycles. The weak report prompted many institutional investors to push the "risk-off" button and exit silver trades that so many bought a few years ago in anticipation of a U.S. economic recovery.
Wednesday's ISM report was the weakest relative to expectations since 2008, and the sixth weakest since 1999, according to Bespoke Investment Group. ISM's index slipped to 52.8 in April, from 57.3 in March.
David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategist, told clients in a research note Wednesday that ISM's acceleration rates slowed to neutral compared with last year's reading. "A high level of growth argues for continued cyclical exposure, while deceleration suggests a more defensive posture in Standard & Poor's 500 sectors," he said. The decline in developed markets' industrial production is occurring as emerging markets' production shows early recovery signs. "That shift in the timing/balance of growth in favor of developing economies favors a shift into U.S. equities with higher international sales exposure," he said.
Many investors first bought silver in 2009 to benefit from the U.S. economy emerging from the credit crisis of 2007. A recovering economy would need silver for making batteries, electronics, medical applications and solar energy.
In 2009, SLV was around $17, and gold was the rage as a hedge against the Fed's decision to lower interest rates to help jump-start the economy. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) soon rallied to new highs, while silver quietly attracted institutional investors. Silver's price rise ultimately was fueled also by less sophisticated investors, who then helped push it into sharp decline. Now, it's hard to say what silver is worth, but it's safe to say losers always come back to Vegas.
cort
Forumer storico
impa.. lo conosci il proverbio.. tanto va la gatta al lardo..
starman45
non affrettare il viaggio
uscito completamente anch'io... purtroppo lasciandoci quasi tutto il gain degli ultimi due giorni.
Ma che cosa e' successo ? hanno di nuovo alzato i margini oppure semplice panic selling ?
Downtrend immediato impressionante.
I rialzi servono per vendere a sconto.
Non è questo il momento di entrare long sul silver.
Chart daily (silver spot).
Ultima modifica:
Premesso che io ho solo argento fisico pertanto sono di parte, io credo che l'argento salirà + dell'oro percentualmente (lo sta facendo già da un pò di mesi)Innanzitutto grazie a tutti per la disponibilità; in merito alla risposta intendi dire che conviene aumentare l'accumulo di argento rispetto all'oro visto che è "un'altra cosa"...in che senso?
nel senso che deve necessariamente salire?
Io vedo l'argento molto più fluttuante e instabile dell'oro.
La mia paura è proprio quella di comprare in un momento troppo alto, e vedere, come sappiamo tutti essere gia successo nell'81, un crollo del prezzo, indi dei miei risparmi, indi delle mie pa...lle.
Sono indeciso e fluttuante anche io, mi sento sul
L'investimento sul fisico deve avere un peso ridotto sul risparmio complessivo essendo difficilmente smobilizzabile, anche per questo ti consigliavo un ingresso graduale nel tempo, in modo da evitare i picchi tipo la settimana scorsa.
La regola fondamentale è comprare a buon prezzo
