Mi pare che giorno dopo giorno stanno crescendo i timori per la situazione economica in Lettonia.
Alla repubblica Baltica, con un Pil in caduta libera intorno al 20% e un debito previsto per il 2011 intorno al 175%, rimangono poche carte in mano da giocare.
La possibile svalutazione della moneta locale potrebbe rilanciare un pò l'asfittica economia ma con danni notevoli sulla popolazione.
Nel frattempo, per mettere le mani avanti, il governo lettone si appresterebbe a fissare un limite massimo sull'ammontare recuperabile dei mutui in default.
Ricordiamo che tra i maggiori gruppi bancari interessati all'area figurano anche le due principali banche italiane. Il rischio è di una crisi a catena di tutta una filiera di paesi.
Nonostante questo, oggi sul TLX, Lettonia con il segno + , Denaro 92 e Lettera a 92,5. Circa 400K i volumi, ma se andiamo a vedere nel dettaglio molto esigui gli importi. Si scarica poco alla volta?
Oggi c'è ottimismo sulla possibiltà di raggiungere un accordo fra FMI e Lettonia in un incontro al prossimo 13 ottobre, ma francamente non riesco a capire. Questi si sono accordati con l'FMI per un taglio del 35% degli stipendi del settore pubblico, ed hanno invece tagliato del 5% (sfido: con un taglio di quella portata, sarebbe scoppiata una guerra civile).
I tagli alla spesa pubblica sarebbero il 70% di quelli concordati con il FMI, ma sono attesi da almeno un paio di anni di stagnazione, ben che vada.
Più del 50% dei mutui eccede il valore del collaterale ed i prezzi dell'immobiliare sono calati del 71% rispetto ai massimi del 2007.
Vogliono stare nell'Euro con la Germania... ma io mi terrei alla larga, altro che storie... svaluterei di corsa, altrimenti finiranno per importare anche le patate, che mi dicono essere ingrediente base della dieta nazionale...
Latvia Says It’s Close to Ending Standoff With Donors (Update3)
By Aaron Eglitis
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Latvia is close to ending a dispute with international donors including Sweden and the International Monetary Fund that jeopardized its bailout loan and raised devaluation speculation, the premier’s office said.
“Latvia is on the way to coming to an agreement with its international lenders,” said Liga Krapane, Prime Minister
Valdis Dombrovskis’s spokeswoman. The premier in Helsinki today told reporters the country is “working on additional measures,” adding he expects an “intermediate conclusion” when European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia visits Riga on Oct. 13.
The IMF, European Union and Sweden, which agreed a 7.5 billion-euro ($11 billion) loan in December, have heightened the pitch of calls urging Dombrovskis to commit to budget cuts of 500 million lati ($1 billion) a year until 2012. Swedish Premier
Fredrik Reinfeldt said on Oct. 5 Latvia “must correct” its deficit and Riksbank Governor
Stefan Ingves has said the country may be left “in the cold” if it doesn’t comply.
“The message has been heard,” said
Nils Muiznieks, a political scientist at the University of Latvia, by phone yesterday. “The chances of coming to an agreement have improved massively” after Swedish admonishments.
Finance Minister
Einars Repse has had meetings with officials from the Nordic states, EU members, the IMF, the World Bank and the U.S. Treasury, and “everyone was in agreement that Latvia has to work according to the program,” he told
Latvian Independent Television last night.
‘Depressive Forces’
Repse added the government must find places to cut expenditure and may have to introduce a real-estate tax to meet the terms of the loan.
Sweden’s banks are the biggest in the Baltic states. Stockholm-based
Swedbank AB, the region’s biggest lender, rose as much as 2.9 percent and traded 2.5 percent higher at 62.25 kroner at 1:41 p.m. in Stockholm.
SEB AB rose as much as 1.3 percent to 45.10 kroner. The Sweden’s krona gained 0.4 percent, ending two days of losses.
Credit default swap spreads on five-year Latvian debt fell 1.5 basis points to 531.5 at 9:35 a.m. in London, according to CMA DataVision prices in London. A decrease signals a reduced perceived credit risk.
Sweden’s debt office said in March that it would lend Latvia about 720 million euros, as part of the international loan, next year. The country currently has the rotating presidency of the European Union.
‘Depressive Forces’
The Baltic region, part of the Soviet Union until 1991, is enduring the severest recession in the EU; Latvia’s output slumped 18.7 percent in the second quarter, Lithuania plunged 20.2 percent and Estonia’s economy contracted 16.1 percent. The three will face “depressive economic forces” through next year, SEB said in an Oct. 7 report.
Donors have questioned the commitment of Latvia to fulfilling the terms of its loan after a report revealed some of the promised cuts weren’t implemented.
Latvian public wages have fallen about 5 percent in the first half of the year, compared with a targeted 35 percent agreed, the IMF said in an Oct. 2 report. The Washington-based fund also said that a reliance on “one-off” measures to cut the budget deficit threatens to delay the euro adoption strategy.
Latvia, which like Lithuania and Estonia pegs its currency to the euro, is trying to persuade donors it can achieve an agreed 8.5 percent deficit of gross domestic product next year by cutting its budget by 325 million lati, 175 million lati less than the lenders say is necessary. Lawmakers have also balked at donor recommendations to introduce a real-estate tax.
‘Lose a Finger’
“Most likely they will reach an agreement somewhere in between” 325 million and 500 million, said
Martins Kazaks, chief economist of Swedbank’s Latvian unit. Lawmakers have until November to reach an agreement on the size of the cuts.
“If Latvia does not cut, then they will have to make expenditure cuts three times those now” if loans are suspended, he said. “If you have the option of losing a finger compared to a whole arm, then go for the finger.”
Lawmakers in Riga, mindful of elections in a year, have decried the bailout terms and Dombrovskis is struggling to soften the blow for households. His efforts have thrown oil on the flames of speculation that Latvia may be forced to devalue the lats.
The premier on Oct. 6 asked civil servants to look into the feasibility of capping mortgage holders’ liabilities to the value of the collateral offered against their loans. That was interpreted by some investors as a sign the government is paving the way for a devaluation by limiting the domestic losses such a move would incur.
‘Most Inappropriate’
The central bank in an Oct. 7 statement questioned the timing, arguing such legislation “should have been adopted earlier, for purposes of slowing down lending, or it should be postponed: this is the most inappropriate moment possible.”
A devaluation would hit corporate loans and bring with it a “wave of insolvencies,” according to Commerzbank AG currency strategists
Lutz Karpowitz and
Antje Praefcke, who say the mortgage proposal is no prelude to a controlled devaluation.
This isn’t the first time Latvia has stared down the tunnel of ruin. Lawmakers in June struck an 11th hour agreement on budget cuts to satisfy lenders and ensure the flow of payments. That agreement was pushed back until after municipal and European parliament elections.
The difference now, is Latvia is no longer in danger of running out of money after 1.6 billion euros from the EU, IMF and
World Bank was transferred, enough to last at least until March, said
Annika Lindblad, an analyst with Nordea AB.
Domestic Pain
Political efforts to contain the fallout of the recession come as households handle wage cuts that make loan repayment impossible and slumping property values. House prices fell 71 percent in June from a peak in March 2007, according to real- estate broker
Latio.
More than half of Latvian mortgages issued by Swedbank exceeded the value of their collateral at the end of the second quarter, Jenny Clevstrom, a bank spokeswoman in Stockholm, said on July 24.
Some mortgages have been guaranteed by third parties, often private people and family members of borrowers, who may be affected if the mortgage goes into default.
“People who somewhat innocently put their name to guarantee a mortgage may now be hit,” said
Alf Vanags, director of the Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies. “I don’t believe this is the right solution. It is always preferable” to have a negotiated agreement between the lender, borrower and in some cases the government.
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