Titoli di Stato area Euro Paesi Baltici ed Est Europa: news, info, analisi

[Imark]

Mi ripeto, ma devo fare i complimenti al MM che cura il titolo in questione. A colpetti da 3, 5, 10K è riuscito a riportare il titolo a galla.
Ultimo 9K a 92 .
Denaro a 91,05 - Lettera a 92,22.
Volumi a 602 K.

E, il tutto, mentre i TdS nostrani accusano una piccola defaillance di un 30/50 di punti dai massimi della giornata.

Questo è un esempio di come si muovono i titoli poco liquidi sul mercato.

Dopo le 21:00 si vede la chiusura ICMA... devo ricordarmi di dare un'occhiata, per vedere se c'è stato comportamento analogo... sarebbe un segnale che la Lettonia va a prendersi un po' di ossigeno la prox settimana...

 

[Imark]

La Lettonia è state recentemente confermata da Fitch nei suoi rating. La circostanza consente di fare il punto sui principali dati macroeconomici del paese baltico. Significativa la conclusione di Fitch, che afferma che è difficile ritrovare situazioni analoghe in cui una recessione così severa non sia sfociata in una svalutazione e/o in tumulti di piazza.

Fitch Affirms Latvia at 'BB+'; Outlook Negative

06 Oct 2009 6:40 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-06 October 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed the Republic of Latvia's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+', Long-term local currency IDR at 'BBB-', Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B' and Country Ceiling rating at 'BBB'. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Negative.

"Latvia's rating remains under downward pressure due to the extent of the recession, fiscal financing concerns, rising public and external debt ratios, political developments and the risk of further negative developments in the banking sector," says Eral Yilmaz, Associate Director, Fitch's Sovereigns group. "Although there are some signs that macroeconomic imbalances are unwinding, further necessary and painful adjustment lies ahead."

The affirmation of Latvia's ratings during Fitch's latest review follows a succession of four consecutive downgrades between August 2007 and April 2009.

Latvia is undergoing a severe recession and macroeconomic re-balancing which has increased pressure on its fixed exchange rate regime. Fitch forecasts that the economy will contract 18% in 2009 and 4% in 2010.

Property prices have fallen, bank asset quality is deteriorating and unemployment is rising. There are some signs that an adjustment is taking place. Latvia's large current account deficit, a key rating weakness, has undergone a rapid reversal and Fitch is forecasting a current account surplus of 6% of GDP in 2009.

The yoy Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate fell to 1.5% in August 2009, from a peak of 17.7% in May 2008, and Fitch is forecasting annual average deflation of 3.5% in 2010. Furthermore, gross real wages fell by 5.3% yoy in H109 compared to a yoy rise of 7.6% in H108.

Nevertheless, Fitch notes that it is difficult to recall precedents of countries that have undergone such significant recessions without devaluation and/or political upheaval.

The recession and the government's takeover of Parex banka in December 2008 have caused a sharp deterioration in public finances. Fitch is forecasting budget deficits of 10%, 8.5% and 6.5% of GDP in 2009-2011 respectively. The agency is also projecting that government debt will rise to 61% of GDP by end-2011 from 20% at end-2008, which would elevate government debt to the second-highest in the 'BB' rating range.

Parliamentary elections scheduled for 2010 could complicate the budget process while public discontent with spending cuts could rise through the winter.

Failure to implement budget cuts and remain on track with the EU/IMF programme could lead to a downgrade. A delay to the disbursement of international funds to Latvia would leave fiscal and external financing gaps, undermine confidence and put renewed pressure on the exchange rate.

Devaluation would be severely negative, given the high level of external debt (129% of GDP at end-2008) and foreign-currency bank loans (91% of the total), and would be likely to lead to a downgrade.

The pace and magnitude of the deterioration in bank asset quality or a loss of depositor confidence triggered by a negative shock could leave Latvian banks in need of re-capitalisation or liquidity support. Reduced support from foreign parent banks and increased state support for the banking sector would put further pressure on public finances and would be negative for the sovereign rating.

Latvia's ratings are nonetheless supported by the political and institutional strengths associated with its EU membership, the flexibility of its economy as well as high per capita income and good governance indicators compared to 'BB' and 'BBB' range medians, and its unblemished modern debt-servicing record.

 

[Imark]

La Lituania, sempre nella disamina di Fitch, appare messa meglio, pur andando ad attraversare anch'essa una crisi severissima...

Fitch Rates Lithuania's Upcoming Eurobond 'BBB'
07 Oct 2009 6:07 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-07 October 2009: Fitch Ratings has today assigned the Republic of Lithuania's upcoming fixed-rate USD-denominated eurobond, which has a maturity date of 2015, a 'BBB' rating. The rating is in line with Lithuania's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB', which has a Negative Outlook.

"Lithuania is undergoing a severe recession and macroeconomic rebalancing which is taking a toll on the real economy through falling property prices, deteriorating bank asset quality and rising unemployment, and will increase political pressure on the government as it seeks to impose fiscal austerity measures," says Eral Yilmaz, Associate Director in Fitch's Emerging Europe sovereigns group.

The Lithuanian economy contracted 16.8% yoy in H109 as industrial production, exports, investment and domestic demand fell sharply. Fitch is forecasting that the Lithuanian economy will contract 18% in 2009 and 4% in 2010.

The agency notes that macroeconomic imbalances are being unwound. The current account recorded a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in H109 compared with a deficit of 17.3% of GDP in H108. The yoy Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate declined to 2.2% in August 2009 from a peak of 12.7% in 2008. Nevertheless, further necessary and painful adjustment lies ahead.

Following expenditure cuts of 3% of GDP in May 2009, the government revised the budget again in July, cutting public sector wages and raising the rate of value-added tax by 2 percentage points to 21%. However, the recession has caused a sharp deterioration in Lithuania's public finances and Fitch is forecasting a budget deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2009.

The agency is also projecting that general government debt will rise to 29% of GDP in 2009 (just under the 'BBB' range median of 31% of GDP) from 16% of GDP in 2008. Fitch believes the government's intention of reducing the budget deficit to under 3% of GDP in 2011 will be challenging. The agency believes it is more likely that the budget deficit will be brought under 3% of GDP in 2012, making 2014 the most likely date that Lithuania could adopt the euro.

Fitch has downgraded Lithuania's sovereign rating three times between October 2008 and April 2009. In addition to the pressures on its macroeconomic framework and public finances, Lithuania is vulnerable to negative developments in Latvia ('BB+'/Negative) through three channels: trade, common ownership of the banking system, and resident confidence in the Lithuanian litas (LTL) and the banking system.

The pace and magnitude of the deterioration in bank asset quality or a loss of depositor confidence triggered by a negative shock could lead to a material increase in pressure on the LTL. This would be negative given the high level of external debt (67% of GDP at end-2008) and high proportion of foreign-currency bank loans (69% of total loans to residents) and would likely to lead to a further downgrade of Lithuania's ratings.

Lithuania's ratings are supported by the political and institutional strengths associated with its EU membership. Its ratings are further supported by the flexibility of its economy as well as high per capita income and good governance indicators compared to 'BBB' range medians, and its unblemished modern debt-servicing record.

 

[tommy271]

Come per le altre due nazioni baltiche (Estonia e Lituania) la Lettonia ha maturato un forte sentimento nazionalista cresciuto durante tutto il novecento.

Probabilmente le privazioni subite durante il regime sovietico hanno irrobustito il carattere.

La cura proposta dal FMI che prevede tagli drastici alle pensioni, agli stipendi, nonchè ad un generale appesantimento delle condizioni di vita avrebbe portato - in qualsiasi paese - alle barricate.
Qui non è ancora successo, anche perchè le osservazioni del FMI non sono state tutte pienamente accolte. La prossima tranche di aiuti, indispensabili al funzionamento dell'apparato statale, sono fondamentali.

Ovviamente, c'è da dire, che la cura del FMI non saprei sino a che punto è valida. Anzi ...
Ricordiamoci i "consigli" del Fondo dati all'Argentina, abbiamo poi visto in seguito i risultati ...

 

[tommy271]

Oggi giornata importante per la Lettonia in attesa degli aiuti del FMI.
Intanto vediamo come va il TdS della Latvia quotato sul TLX:
volumi (attuali) 382.000
denaro 89,00 lettera 89,90
ultimo a 88,91.

 

[Imark]

Oggi giornata importante per la Lettonia in attesa degli aiuti del FMI.
Intanto vediamo come va il TdS della Latvia quotato sul TLX:
volumi (attuali) 382.000
denaro 89,00 lettera 89,90
ultimo a 88,91.

Disallineamento rispetto ai prezzi Xtrakter (ex ICMA) di ieri sera... ha chiuso 90 - 93,48 last 92,14... in crescita, seppure con uno spread che riflette una legittima incertezza...

 

[tommy271]

L'incertezza regna sovrana... da una mezz'oretta non scambia.
Volumi in crescita a 482.000
Denaro 88,50 - Lettera 89,22.
Ultimo 88,67.

 

[tommy271]

Forse il titolo della discussione andrebbe cambiato in Lituania e paesi Baltici visto che sono un pò fuori tema.

Ad ogni modo, durante la visita in Lettonia di Joachin Almunia, quest'ultimo ha apprezzato la decisione del governo sugli adempimenti con il FMI delle promesse relative al credito, anche se queste mi sono sembrate parole di circostanza.

Almunia ritiene che il paese uscirà dalla crisi il prossimo anno e ha affermato che queste misure siano indispensabili per continuare ad ottenere l'assistenza del credito internazionale affermando che la U.E. e le altre organizzazioni internazionali aiuteranno il paese ad uscire dall'attuale crisi economica.

La Lettonia aveva programmato tagli alla spesa pubblica per 325 milioni di lati per il 2010 non tenendo fede all'impegno con il FMI per un taglio di 500 milioni.

Ieri, intanto, in Romania a causa della situazione economica e dei tagli previsti da effettuare al bilancio, il parlamento ha sfiduciato il governo in carica.
Era la prima volta che accadeva dalla caduta del "conducator".

 

[tommy271]

Anche oggi situazione di relativo stallo anche a seguito dello "sciacquone" che ha investito i TdS in area euro.
Volumi giornalieri a 346.000
Minimo 86,79 - Max 89,02
Ultimo a 87,75
Denaro a 87 - Lettera a 88.

 

[Giontra]

Lituania

Lithuania economy to hit bottom end-2009

10.20.09, 05:30 AM EDT
VIENNA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Lithuania's economy will hit the bottom at the end of this year and begin to recover from the end of 2010, President Dalia Grybauskaite was quoted as saying in an interview with Austrian newspaper Die Presse on Tuesday.
'The difficult situation is under control,' Grybauskaite told Die Presse. 'My view is that Lithuania will reach the economic bottom at the end of the year and will start to recover at the end of 2010.'

Grybauskaite reiterated she opposed a possible devaluation of the Lithuanian lita because of the country's large stock of euro-denominated debt.
'More than two thirds of the population has debt in hard foreign currencies, as does the government,' she said. 'Devaluation would be a massive shock, not a therapy.'
'That means we have no choice but to go down the painful route of budget cuts, even if the price for that is tensions in the society,' she added.
(Reporting by Boris Groendahl)
Il sottolineato è mio