FTSE Mib Futures solointraday - Cap. 3
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orontobate
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Gold spara, cosa sta per succedere?
Quando fa così poi la vola aumenta.
Mi son perso delle news?
Quando fa così poi la vola aumenta.
Mi son perso delle news?
orontobate
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In odore di negazione.
Allegati
fenice78
Forumer storico
Eh eh,..... Rastani se non ci fosse dovrebbero invetarlo 
As professional traders, we know something is
wrong when newspaper headlines are
screaming excitedly about the markets making
new highs.
As a matter of fact one of our subscribers in
Australia emailed me the front page of a
Sydney newspaper. Next to a drawing of a
bull are the words "Breaking out".
The extreme optimism we are seeing in the
markets and the media is dangerous. It does
NOT mean we should sell - yet. But it means
we are getting close to a top.
We've seen this before. History repeats or
rhymes as they say:
Markets break psychological levels (like
14,000 in the Dow). This triggers a wave of
uninformed people to dive in because they are
afraid of "missing out".
Wall Street loves this emotional crowd! The
more emotionally driven the herd is the more
money the Street makes.
Let's examine why this happens.
Warren Buffett, the richest share investor in
the world, warned us in 2008 that the cycle
of boom and bust will never end. There will
be another bubble and another crash.
He was right.
You see, even though we professionals know
that the ONLY way to make money investing
in stocks is to "buy low and sell high" - most
people (or the "herd") are incapable of this.
Take a look at this chart:
Back in early 2009 when stocks were dirt
cheap (blue circle), people were too afraid to
buy stocks. Now that stocks are near all time
highs (red circles) and expensive, people feel
more confident about buying.
In other words, right now people are doing the
opposite of what smart investors would do.
Why are humans programmed to be such
terrible investors? Buying high instead of low
and selling low instead of high?
According to psychologists, there is an
explanation for this. It seems most people
suffer from three biases:
1. Bias towards recent data: we have a
habit to give greater importance to the recent
data and ignoring older ones. Hence right now
people are more likely to consider rising
stock prices as being the most important
because it has just recently happened.
This also explains why most traders who have
made recent losses tend to hesitate taking the
next trade. They ignore their older successes
and only focus on the recent losses because
the pain of the recent memory is greater.
2. Bias towards available data: people give
more weight to data that is readily available
and ignore what is not. If they hear from
newspapers and friends that markets are
rising, then they give that more weight. As a
result they ignore older data that shows the
market is near a top.
3. Bias towards confirmation: people look
for evidence to confirm their beliefs and ignore
contrary evidence.
This third bias explains why a rising market
makes people feel more confident about
buying and a falling market makes them
nervous, whereas in reality they should be
doing the opposite.
As you may know, I like to buy stocks when
they are hated - NOT when everyone is
excited about them.
Take Apple (AAPL) as an example. A
quality tech company. But recent sentiment
reports show that despite Apple's 30% drop
in the past few months, investors are still
loading up on the stock. Personally, I am
going to wait until everyone has given up on
Apple. Then I'll consider buying.
Right now I believe stocks are nearing an
important top and the time will come when
stocks will decline sharply. That time has not
come yet, but as always I will tell you when to
take the trade.
As professional traders, we know something is
wrong when newspaper headlines are
screaming excitedly about the markets making
new highs.
As a matter of fact one of our subscribers in
Australia emailed me the front page of a
Sydney newspaper. Next to a drawing of a
bull are the words "Breaking out".
The extreme optimism we are seeing in the
markets and the media is dangerous. It does
NOT mean we should sell - yet. But it means
we are getting close to a top.
We've seen this before. History repeats or
rhymes as they say:
Markets break psychological levels (like
14,000 in the Dow). This triggers a wave of
uninformed people to dive in because they are
afraid of "missing out".
Wall Street loves this emotional crowd! The
more emotionally driven the herd is the more
money the Street makes.
Let's examine why this happens.
Warren Buffett, the richest share investor in
the world, warned us in 2008 that the cycle
of boom and bust will never end. There will
be another bubble and another crash.
He was right.
You see, even though we professionals know
that the ONLY way to make money investing
in stocks is to "buy low and sell high" - most
people (or the "herd") are incapable of this.
Take a look at this chart:
Back in early 2009 when stocks were dirt
cheap (blue circle), people were too afraid to
buy stocks. Now that stocks are near all time
highs (red circles) and expensive, people feel
more confident about buying.
In other words, right now people are doing the
opposite of what smart investors would do.
Why are humans programmed to be such
terrible investors? Buying high instead of low
and selling low instead of high?
According to psychologists, there is an
explanation for this. It seems most people
suffer from three biases:
1. Bias towards recent data: we have a
habit to give greater importance to the recent
data and ignoring older ones. Hence right now
people are more likely to consider rising
stock prices as being the most important
because it has just recently happened.
This also explains why most traders who have
made recent losses tend to hesitate taking the
next trade. They ignore their older successes
and only focus on the recent losses because
the pain of the recent memory is greater.
2. Bias towards available data: people give
more weight to data that is readily available
and ignore what is not. If they hear from
newspapers and friends that markets are
rising, then they give that more weight. As a
result they ignore older data that shows the
market is near a top.
3. Bias towards confirmation: people look
for evidence to confirm their beliefs and ignore
contrary evidence.
This third bias explains why a rising market
makes people feel more confident about
buying and a falling market makes them
nervous, whereas in reality they should be
doing the opposite.
As you may know, I like to buy stocks when
they are hated - NOT when everyone is
excited about them.
Take Apple (AAPL) as an example. A
quality tech company. But recent sentiment
reports show that despite Apple's 30% drop
in the past few months, investors are still
loading up on the stock. Personally, I am
going to wait until everyone has given up on
Apple. Then I'll consider buying.
Right now I believe stocks are nearing an
important top and the time will come when
stocks will decline sharply. That time has not
come yet, but as always I will tell you when to
take the trade.
mr. takeprofit
Forumer storico
Bene,
a quanto pare oggi ho lasciato la mancia anche sul mio long controcorrente
a quanto pare oggi ho lasciato la mancia anche sul mio long controcorrente
abruzzo
Forumer storico
io 100 punti ... ma avevo beccato il minimo all 17,39
mi fai compagnia sul carro
fenice78
Forumer storico
Meglio di quelli che ieri hanno chiuso con lo stop loss e fanno gli sboroni
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ciclista52
Forumer storico
Spread intorno “quota Monti”, Jp Morgan: “Con Berlusconi allarme mercati”
http://www.blitzquotidiano.it/economia/spread-berlusconi-imu-jp-morgan-1467316/
so matti
Elezioni, e se Berlusconi vincesse? Ecco il report di Jp Morgan
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2013-02-05/ecco-ipotesi-choc-nuovo-113345.shtml
http://www.blitzquotidiano.it/economia/spread-berlusconi-imu-jp-morgan-1467316/
so matti
Elezioni, e se Berlusconi vincesse? Ecco il report di Jp Morgan
http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/finanza-e-mercati/2013-02-05/ecco-ipotesi-choc-nuovo-113345.shtml
Ultima modifica:
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