Io vedo un sistema informatico globalizzato e tutti ormai guardiamo/leggiamo e siamo influenzati da stessi canali informatici e questi vivono sulle notizie negative e quindi giu' randellate a tutto bordo senza rendersi conto che a forza di chiamare al lupo poi alla fine arriva ......
non provengo dal finanziario ma vedo nel settore affinita' ad altri prodotti dove le tendenze si profilano con ampio anticipo et i vettori pero' sono gli stessi perche' la pubblicita' ( diretta e indiretta , positiva o negativa ) e' l' anima del commercio.......Sì, ma gli indicatori ti danno elementi oggettivi... non sono opinioni...
Poi certo ognuno li valuta nel contesto del proprio newsflow, ma quando un emittente CCC emette un bond senior secured (anche se gli asset offerti quale collaterale aggiungono un plus modesto in termine di recovery) in $ attorno al 10-11% a 5 anni, sai che quello è il fondo del barile ... che più in basso di così, c'è solo da scavare...
Perché il contesto di distressed index ratio per l'HY USA sotto il 10% degli emittenti è un contesto di questo tipo...
D'altronde, per avere il colpo d'occhio, è sufficienta abbonarsi gratuitamente al settimanale online Leveraged Finance pubblicato da Fitch e seguire lì le nuove emissione HY USA... lì la cosa la vedi in tempo reale ...
In mezzo all'articolo una notizia interessante: GE Capital starebbe acquistando CMBS e bond High Yield
Covered Bond Sales Surge; Transocean Tumbles: Credit Markets
By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde
June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks.
About $5.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, almost double last week’s total, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015.
Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising as European governments from Greece to Spain struggle to cut record budget deficits, threatening the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.
“In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki, head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($440 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said.
Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with a rise of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show.
Company Bond Sales
The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003.
Elsewhere in credit markets, Transocean Ltd.’s notes fell the most in 17 months as energy company bonds continued to plunge. The drilling contractor’s 5.25 percent securities due in 2013 declined 4.8 cents to 94.4 on the dollar, after trading as low as 92.5, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
BP Plc’s 5.25 percent 2013 notes tumbled 3.4 cents to 98.3, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp.’s 6.45 percent bonds due 2036 plunged 4 cents to 81.9, the lowest since May 2009.
Energy company bonds have plunged as BP failed to plug its leaking Gulf of Mexico well and the U.S. investigated if criminal or civil laws were violated. The worst spill in U.S. history began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Transocean.
“There’s more questions than answers so everyone wants to sell,” said Vivek Pal, an analyst at broker-dealer Knight Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Junk Bonds
Moody’s Investors Service said an index measuring the difficulty of borrowing for junk-rated companies failed to show improvement for the first time in 13 months. The Moody’s Liquidity-Stress Index, which falls when more cash is available in the corporate bond market, was 4.8 percent in May, unchanged from April, the ratings agency said in a statement. The index peaked at 20.9 percent in March 2009.
“While credit market conditions have allowed issuers to improve near-term liquidity and chip away at forthcoming maturities, a significant amount of corporate debt still matures from 2010-2014,” Moody’s analyst John Puchalla said.
More than $800 billion of junk debt will mature through 2014, causing a wave of distressed exchanges in which companies try to swap out their debt at a discount to face value to avoid bankruptcy, Moody’s said in a report last month.
GE Sees Bargain
General Electric Co.’s investment arm is buying U.S. commercial-mortgage securities and high-yield corporate bonds.
“We’re adding in markets that we feel will recover nicely with a fundamental recovery in the U.S,” Paul Colonna, who oversees $58 billion as chief investment officer for fixed income at GE Asset Management in Stamford, Connecticut, said yesterday in a telephone interview.
“While we certainly had a volatile time over the last month or so, I don’t think this is the path for the rest of the year,” Colonna said.
Investors lost money on high-yield corporate bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities last month as bond buyers fled to the “safest assets,” such as U.S. Treasuries and home- loan bonds with government-backed guarantees, Bank of America Corp. said in a June 1 report.
Bond Risk
Credit-default swaps indexes, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, fell in Asia and the U.S. and rose in Europe.
The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan declined 10 basis points to 135 basis points as of 8:23 a.m. in Singapore, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. The index typically falls as investor confidence improves and rises as it deteriorates.
The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14 declined 4 basis points to a mid-price of 117.6 as of 5:46 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. It declined after the National Association of Realtors said yesterday the number of contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed in April as Americans took advantage of the last month of a tax credit for purchases.
“The macro headwinds, at least for today, are seen as slightly more beneficial,” said Brian Yelvington, head of fixed-income strategy at Knight Capital.
European Debt
Credit-default swaps on European sovereign notes rose for the third day on speculation Spain will struggle to refinance $38 billion of debt next month, worsening the region’s deficit crisis. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose 8.5 basis points to 156.9, approaching the record of 161 on May 25.
In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 13 basis points on average to 314, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement.
The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest.
“Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige, who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York.
Covered Bonds
Bank of Montreal is marketing U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread.
“Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand, a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” said Hillenbrand, who recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds.
Jose Sarafana, the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said.
Higher Ratings
Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest.
Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments cut spending to reduce budget deficits, the European Central Bank estimates.
“Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana.
Borrowers are rushing to sell debt before the ECB’s year- long purchase program ends on June 30, according to Leef Dierks, a covered bond analyst at Barclays Capital. The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it has spent 55.1 billion euros of the 60 billion it set aside a year ago to support credit markets by buying covered bonds.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London [email protected]; Caroline Hyde in London [email protected]
Last Updated: June 3, 2010 00:06 EDT
O forse li ha già acquistati ed adesso cerca di presentarli come un buon investimento...
............
alcune istituzioni finanziarie cominciano a sostenere che non tutte le banche europee ce la faranno a passare la eduardiana "nuttata"...
Speriamo che tutti gli stati di Eurolandia ce la facciano e nessuno sia posto nell'alternativa "islandese" fra salvare le proprie banche e salvare sé stessi ...
squarci di ottimismo nei cieli plumbei
Sai, si cerca di tenere d'occhio alcuni fatti ... poi le conclusioni che se ne traggono non saranno forse ottimistiche, però è un punto di vista espresso con la consueta franchezza...
E ben vengano, come sempre, le opinioni differenti dalla mia...
Buonagiornata a tutti ! Tradotto in un detto delle ns parti = Meglio avere paura che buscarne !
(E se poi si deve rischiare di buscarne allora = Il rischio deve valere la candela. ) . Poi ognuno giudica la Candela padula che si vuole immagazzinare.
Scusa se ti chiedo per esempio cosa ne pensi della Air France KLM FR0010814459 2016 6.65 % , che rendimento dovrebbe avere x valere una candela semi paduala ? ( stesso della Fiat ? o piazzata meglio ? )
