Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE T-Bond-10y-Bund : la maledizione di f4f (vm18)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
ditropan ha scritto:Cazarola Fernabdo's ... così non vale !!!
Facciamo che in discesa chi arriva per primo magna a sbaffo !!!
Buon W.E. bbanda.
generali1984
Forumer storico
Buon Fine Settimana a Tutti
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Ciao gen 
mi sembra che stai tornando e di qeusto sono molto contento
Posizioni short sullo yen ai massimi storici...... carry a manetta... costruzione sitentica di liquidità e rialzo dei mercati.
A quando il reverse?
come detto la settimana scorsa monitorare i cross USD/EUR EUR/YPY, i bond mondiali. la valute dall'alto yield e l'eventuale comportamento delle curve dei tassi.
Net short yen position jumps to record - CFTC
Fri Sep 1, 2006 4:33pm ET
NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped bets against the yen to record highs in the week to Aug. 29, data released on Friday showed.
Net short yen positions increased to 88,329 contracts worth $9.46 billion, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Speculators also doubled net long Canadian dollar positions to 30,605 contracts worth $2.76 billion and only trimmed slightly bets in favor of euro and sterling.
Being "long" a currency is effectively a bet it will strengthen, while being "short" is a bet it will weaken.
When measured collectively against the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars, speculators were net short dollars to the tune of $13.9 billion, only slightly below a $14.3 net short position the prior week.
The yen has been one of the worst performing of the major currencies of late after data showing softer-than-expected consumer price gains cast doubt on whether the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates again in the near future.
The BOJ raised rates in July for the first time in six years, but at 0.25 percent, they still lag far behind U.S. and euro-zone rates, at 5.25 percent and 3 percent respectively.
The yen has remained a favored funding currency for investors who put on so-called "carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies such as the yen and converting into higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
Many analysts expect the dollar also to be harmed by shifting interest rate differentials after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady last month after 17 straight increases.
The CFTC data on speculative positioning are often used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net short or long positions in a currency often suggest a rebound is imminent because dealers might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/29/06 week 8/22/06 week
Long 33,920 30,853
Short 122,249 105,930
Net -88,329 -75,077
mi sembra che stai tornando e di qeusto sono molto contento Posizioni short sullo yen ai massimi storici...... carry a manetta... costruzione sitentica di liquidità e rialzo dei mercati.
A quando il reverse?
come detto la settimana scorsa monitorare i cross USD/EUR EUR/YPY, i bond mondiali. la valute dall'alto yield e l'eventuale comportamento delle curve dei tassi.
Net short yen position jumps to record - CFTC
Fri Sep 1, 2006 4:33pm ET
NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped bets against the yen to record highs in the week to Aug. 29, data released on Friday showed.
Net short yen positions increased to 88,329 contracts worth $9.46 billion, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Speculators also doubled net long Canadian dollar positions to 30,605 contracts worth $2.76 billion and only trimmed slightly bets in favor of euro and sterling.
Being "long" a currency is effectively a bet it will strengthen, while being "short" is a bet it will weaken.
When measured collectively against the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars, speculators were net short dollars to the tune of $13.9 billion, only slightly below a $14.3 net short position the prior week.
The yen has been one of the worst performing of the major currencies of late after data showing softer-than-expected consumer price gains cast doubt on whether the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates again in the near future.
The BOJ raised rates in July for the first time in six years, but at 0.25 percent, they still lag far behind U.S. and euro-zone rates, at 5.25 percent and 3 percent respectively.
The yen has remained a favored funding currency for investors who put on so-called "carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies such as the yen and converting into higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
Many analysts expect the dollar also to be harmed by shifting interest rate differentials after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady last month after 17 straight increases.
The CFTC data on speculative positioning are often used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net short or long positions in a currency often suggest a rebound is imminent because dealers might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/29/06 week 8/22/06 week
Long 33,920 30,853
Short 122,249 105,930
Net -88,329 -75,077
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Chinese official opposes sale of dollar holdings
Sat Sep 2, 2006 4:40am ET
CERNOBBIO, Italy, Sept 2 (Reuters) - China would only damage itself if it sold dollars from its $941 billion stockpile of foreign currency reserves, a senior official said on Saturday.
Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the national parliament, said selling dollar-denominated assets would hurt China by weakening the dollar and the country should diversify its bond purchases.
China's yuan currency this week hit its highest level since it was unpegged from the dollar in July 2005 to float within managed bands. U.S. critics have said the yuan remains artificially cheap.
"The problem we have is if we sell the existing dollar assets, the dollar will go down and it will hurt ourselves," Cheng told Reuters on the margins of a business conference.
Selling the U.S. bonds China has would be "a disaster", he said. Cheng made similar comments in April.
Asked what China should do to diversify its reserves, Cheng said: "I don't want to flatter the Europeans, but certainly the eurobond is one of the options."
Cheng praised parliament's passage last month of a long-awaited corporate bankruptcy law as a step closer to a market economy.
"We let the market play an important role in supporting the good guys and throwing out the bad guys," he said.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
Sat Sep 2, 2006 4:40am ET
CERNOBBIO, Italy, Sept 2 (Reuters) - China would only damage itself if it sold dollars from its $941 billion stockpile of foreign currency reserves, a senior official said on Saturday.
Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the national parliament, said selling dollar-denominated assets would hurt China by weakening the dollar and the country should diversify its bond purchases.
China's yuan currency this week hit its highest level since it was unpegged from the dollar in July 2005 to float within managed bands. U.S. critics have said the yuan remains artificially cheap.
"The problem we have is if we sell the existing dollar assets, the dollar will go down and it will hurt ourselves," Cheng told Reuters on the margins of a business conference.
Selling the U.S. bonds China has would be "a disaster", he said. Cheng made similar comments in April.
Asked what China should do to diversify its reserves, Cheng said: "I don't want to flatter the Europeans, but certainly the eurobond is one of the options."
Cheng praised parliament's passage last month of a long-awaited corporate bankruptcy law as a step closer to a market economy.
"We let the market play an important role in supporting the good guys and throwing out the bad guys," he said.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Bernanke ritiene che una crisi economica cinese è difficile anche se un harda landing non è da escludere a priori.
UPDATE 1-Fed's Bernanke: Can't rule out China hard landing
Fri Sep 1, 2006 11:23pm ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter obtained on Friday that chances of an economic crisis in China were low, but that the possibility of a "hard landing" for the economy could not be dismissed.
"We believe that the chance of a Chinese economic crisis is very low for the foreseeable future," Bernanke wrote in a Aug. 30 letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby.
"Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail," Bernanke told the Alabama Republican. He also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely.
"However, we do not entirely discount the possibility of a 'hard landing,' in the form of significantly slower growth, as authorities attempt to reduce investment growth from its current rapid pace," he wrote.
The Fed chief said the rapid pace of investment in China was leading to overcapacity in some industries and likely adding to bad loans already on bank books.
"However, there is less evidence of widespread overheating. Inflation is still quite low," he added.
Bernanke said Beijing had indicated it wanted to rein in the pace of investment spending and reduce its reliance on export-led growth.
"They have taken some steps to try to encourage consumption. However, they still have not allowed a substantial appreciation of the renminbi (currency), a step that many analysts argue would be the most effective way to address the imbalances in the economy," he said.
U.S. manufacturers complain an undervalued renminbi, or yuan, gives Chinese producers an unfair advantage in global markets and the Bush administration has pressed China to rely more on market forces to determine the value of the currency.
Bernanke's letter, which came in response to written questions Shelby submitted in conjunction with a July 19 Senate Banking Committee hearing on the U.S. economy, was made available by the senator's office.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
UPDATE 1-Fed's Bernanke: Can't rule out China hard landing
Fri Sep 1, 2006 11:23pm ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter obtained on Friday that chances of an economic crisis in China were low, but that the possibility of a "hard landing" for the economy could not be dismissed.
"We believe that the chance of a Chinese economic crisis is very low for the foreseeable future," Bernanke wrote in a Aug. 30 letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby.
"Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail," Bernanke told the Alabama Republican. He also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely.
"However, we do not entirely discount the possibility of a 'hard landing,' in the form of significantly slower growth, as authorities attempt to reduce investment growth from its current rapid pace," he wrote.
The Fed chief said the rapid pace of investment in China was leading to overcapacity in some industries and likely adding to bad loans already on bank books.
"However, there is less evidence of widespread overheating. Inflation is still quite low," he added.
Bernanke said Beijing had indicated it wanted to rein in the pace of investment spending and reduce its reliance on export-led growth.
"They have taken some steps to try to encourage consumption. However, they still have not allowed a substantial appreciation of the renminbi (currency), a step that many analysts argue would be the most effective way to address the imbalances in the economy," he said.
U.S. manufacturers complain an undervalued renminbi, or yuan, gives Chinese producers an unfair advantage in global markets and the Bush administration has pressed China to rely more on market forces to determine the value of the currency.
Bernanke's letter, which came in response to written questions Shelby submitted in conjunction with a July 19 Senate Banking Committee hearing on the U.S. economy, was made available by the senator's office.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
UPDATE 1-Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks may climb after Labor Day
Fri Sep 1, 2006 6:38pm ET
UPDATE 1-Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks may climb after Labor Day
CORRECTED - Wall St Week Ahead: After holiday, stocks may rise
Wall St Week Ahead: After holiday, stocks may rise on rate view
More Company News... Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] (Updates column with changes in stock indexes for year to date)
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks may gain and trading volume may rebound as Wall Street goes back to work after the Labor Day holiday, and as investors bet the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
The last week of August was marked by a blitz of economic data that showed a drop in consumer confidence, a gradual slowdown in the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector and a moderate increase in jobs. But at the same time, oil prices fell below $70 a barrel and an upward revision of second-quarter GDP figures encouraged some investors.
Inflation was mild. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1 percent in August, below expectations.
"Now that everybody is coming back, we are going to see the real impact on the stock markets of all the data that has been released in the past couple of days," said Alexander Paris, an economist and market analyst for Barrington Research, in Chicago. "Some of the reports showed a drop in consumer confidence, while other indicators came in better than expected. Bottom line is, the Fed has no reason to raise rates in September and that may help stocks."
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 wrapped up August with their best monthly performance since January, while the Dow posted its biggest monthly gain since April.
On Friday, U.S. stocks rallied after the August employment data increased optimism that the economy was still strong enough that companies could sustain profitability.
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average <DJI> gained 1.6 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <SPX> rose 1.2 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index <IXIC> advanced 2.5 percent.
For the year so far, the Dow is up 7 percent and the S&P 500 is up 5 percent, while the Nasdaq is down 0.6 percent.
In the week ahead, highlights on the economic front will include readings on second-quarter U.S. productivity, the services sector in August, wholesale inventories in July and a the Federal Reserve's compilation of regional economic conditions, known as the Beige Book.
"It will be an abbreviated week, with traders returning from vacation and the focus will be on the economic data," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach & Co. in New York.
U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Trading will resume on Tuesday.
THE DREADED 'R' WORD
Hanging over the market is a debate among strategists and economists over whether the United States is heading for a gradual economic slowdown, or a full-fledged recession, especially after reports of weakness in the housing sector.
On Friday, data from the National Association of Realtors, showed a record drop in pending home sales. Still, the report followed the release on Wednesday of the government's second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the April through June quarter. That second estimate revised GDP growth upward to an annual rate of 2.9 percent, slightly faster than first reported. It was deemed a positive factor for stocks as better growth could lead to improved profits.
"The Street is divided between the group of people who expect a 'soft landing' and the group who expects a 'hard landing' for the economy," said Paris at Barrington Research. "And the divide is one of the reasons why stocks have been trading in a narrow range."
More clues about the state of the economy and the outlook for inflation will come on Wednesday, with a revision of productivity and unit labor costs for the second quarter.
According to economists polled by Reuters, productivity probably gained 1.5 percent in the period, up from the previously reported rise of 1.1 percent. Unit labor costs are expected to have risen 3.8 percent, the Reuters poll showed, below the initial report of a 4.2 percent gain. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).
"Productivity is one of those reports that allows the Fed to give inflation a little more room," said Barry Ritholtz, chief narket strategist at Ritholtz Research & Analytics in New York. "In other words, we are not seeing wage pressure."
On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its services industry index for August at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT). The ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 55.0 in August from 54.8 in July. For details, see [ID:ECI/US]
The Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions also will be released on Wednesday. It's due at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT).
Wrapping up the week, wholesale inventories for July may show an increase of 0.6 percent in July, according to the Reuters poll. The report is due on Thursday at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).
Oil prices also will be on Wall Street's watch list amid a very light earnings calendar. U.S. crude futures for October delivery <CLV6> fell $1.07 to settle on Friday at $69.19 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Traditionally September is a weak month, but with oil hovering around present levels and no geopolitical concerns, the month may be a little friendlier than usual, " said Cardillo at SW Bach.
National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is the only S&P 500 company set to report earnings next week -- on Thursday
Among the few corporate highlights, Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest microchip maker and a Dow component, may announce as early as Tuesday that it may cut up to 10 percent of its work force, according to News.com, a technology news Web site run by CNET Networks. For details, see [ID:nN31395302]. (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Any questions or comments on this column may be e-mailed to vivianne.rodrigues(at)reuters.com) (Additional reporting by Jennifer Coogan and Chris Sanders)
Fri Sep 1, 2006 6:38pm ET
UPDATE 1-Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks may climb after Labor Day
CORRECTED - Wall St Week Ahead: After holiday, stocks may rise
Wall St Week Ahead: After holiday, stocks may rise on rate view
More Company News... Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] (Updates column with changes in stock indexes for year to date)
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks may gain and trading volume may rebound as Wall Street goes back to work after the Labor Day holiday, and as investors bet the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting.
The last week of August was marked by a blitz of economic data that showed a drop in consumer confidence, a gradual slowdown in the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector and a moderate increase in jobs. But at the same time, oil prices fell below $70 a barrel and an upward revision of second-quarter GDP figures encouraged some investors.
Inflation was mild. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1 percent in August, below expectations.
"Now that everybody is coming back, we are going to see the real impact on the stock markets of all the data that has been released in the past couple of days," said Alexander Paris, an economist and market analyst for Barrington Research, in Chicago. "Some of the reports showed a drop in consumer confidence, while other indicators came in better than expected. Bottom line is, the Fed has no reason to raise rates in September and that may help stocks."
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 wrapped up August with their best monthly performance since January, while the Dow posted its biggest monthly gain since April.
On Friday, U.S. stocks rallied after the August employment data increased optimism that the economy was still strong enough that companies could sustain profitability.
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average <DJI> gained 1.6 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <SPX> rose 1.2 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index <IXIC> advanced 2.5 percent.
For the year so far, the Dow is up 7 percent and the S&P 500 is up 5 percent, while the Nasdaq is down 0.6 percent.
In the week ahead, highlights on the economic front will include readings on second-quarter U.S. productivity, the services sector in August, wholesale inventories in July and a the Federal Reserve's compilation of regional economic conditions, known as the Beige Book.
"It will be an abbreviated week, with traders returning from vacation and the focus will be on the economic data," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach & Co. in New York.
U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Trading will resume on Tuesday.
THE DREADED 'R' WORD
Hanging over the market is a debate among strategists and economists over whether the United States is heading for a gradual economic slowdown, or a full-fledged recession, especially after reports of weakness in the housing sector.
On Friday, data from the National Association of Realtors, showed a record drop in pending home sales. Still, the report followed the release on Wednesday of the government's second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the April through June quarter. That second estimate revised GDP growth upward to an annual rate of 2.9 percent, slightly faster than first reported. It was deemed a positive factor for stocks as better growth could lead to improved profits.
"The Street is divided between the group of people who expect a 'soft landing' and the group who expects a 'hard landing' for the economy," said Paris at Barrington Research. "And the divide is one of the reasons why stocks have been trading in a narrow range."
More clues about the state of the economy and the outlook for inflation will come on Wednesday, with a revision of productivity and unit labor costs for the second quarter.
According to economists polled by Reuters, productivity probably gained 1.5 percent in the period, up from the previously reported rise of 1.1 percent. Unit labor costs are expected to have risen 3.8 percent, the Reuters poll showed, below the initial report of a 4.2 percent gain. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).
"Productivity is one of those reports that allows the Fed to give inflation a little more room," said Barry Ritholtz, chief narket strategist at Ritholtz Research & Analytics in New York. "In other words, we are not seeing wage pressure."
On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its services industry index for August at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT). The ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 55.0 in August from 54.8 in July. For details, see [ID:ECI/US]
The Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions also will be released on Wednesday. It's due at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT).
Wrapping up the week, wholesale inventories for July may show an increase of 0.6 percent in July, according to the Reuters poll. The report is due on Thursday at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).
Oil prices also will be on Wall Street's watch list amid a very light earnings calendar. U.S. crude futures for October delivery <CLV6> fell $1.07 to settle on Friday at $69.19 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Traditionally September is a weak month, but with oil hovering around present levels and no geopolitical concerns, the month may be a little friendlier than usual, " said Cardillo at SW Bach.
National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is the only S&P 500 company set to report earnings next week -- on Thursday
Among the few corporate highlights, Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest microchip maker and a Dow component, may announce as early as Tuesday that it may cut up to 10 percent of its work force, according to News.com, a technology news Web site run by CNET Networks. For details, see [ID:nN31395302]. (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Any questions or comments on this column may be e-mailed to vivianne.rodrigues(at)reuters.com) (Additional reporting by Jennifer Coogan and Chris Sanders)
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Indovinello:
mettete assieme questa notizia....
UPDATE 1-French trade min says euro-yen rate manageable
Sat Sep 2, 2006 6:48am ET
MARSEILLE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - French Trade Minister Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that the euro-yen rate was manageable as it stood but the yuan was undervalued relative to the strength of China's economy.
"When I look at exports I am thrilled because they are going through the roof at the moment. But clearly, as the euro appreciates versus the yen, then it's a worry because Japan is one of our main markets when it comes to exports," she told Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) political party.
"I think it's manageable as it stands but we are extremely attentive and cautious as to where it's going." she said.
China's yuan consolidated against the dollar on Friday but still set a fresh post-revaluation, intra-day high for the fourth straight day, and Lagarde said she thought it was undervalued.
"There has to be an adjustment between the economic factors of the (Chinese) economy and the currency, and clearly at the moment the currency is undervalued relative to the strength of the economy," she said.
"I think it's an issue which is a global issue, not an issue between France and China, but between China and the rest of the world," she added.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
e poi questa postata ieri mattina....
Net short yen position jumps to record - CFTC
Fri Sep 1, 2006 4:33pm ET
NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped bets against the yen to record highs in the week to Aug. 29, data released on Friday showed.
Net short yen positions increased to 88,329 contracts worth $9.46 billion, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Speculators also doubled net long Canadian dollar positions to 30,605 contracts worth $2.76 billion and only trimmed slightly bets in favor of euro and sterling.
Being "long" a currency is effectively a bet it will strengthen, while being "short" is a bet it will weaken.
When measured collectively against the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars, speculators were net short dollars to the tune of $13.9 billion, only slightly below a $14.3 net short position the prior week.
The yen has been one of the worst performing of the major currencies of late after data showing softer-than-expected consumer price gains cast doubt on whether the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates again in the near future.
The BOJ raised rates in July for the first time in six years, but at 0.25 percent, they still lag far behind U.S. and euro-zone rates, at 5.25 percent and 3 percent respectively.
The yen has remained a favored funding currency for investors who put on so-called "carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies such as the yen and converting into higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
Many analysts expect the dollar also to be harmed by shifting interest rate differentials after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady last month after 17 straight increases.
The CFTC data on speculative positioning are often used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net short or long positions in a currency often suggest a rebound is imminent because dealers might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/29/06 week 8/22/06 week
Long 33,920 30,853
Short 122,249 105,930
Net -88,329 -75,077
poi questi due grafici... relativi alla situazione dei bond weekly e della posizione dei commercial sui COT...
ed infine questa situazione dell'oex put/call ratio.... (di mercoledì ma va bene lo stesso)
e traete una conclusione
mettete assieme questa notizia....
UPDATE 1-French trade min says euro-yen rate manageable
Sat Sep 2, 2006 6:48am ET
MARSEILLE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - French Trade Minister Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that the euro-yen rate was manageable as it stood but the yuan was undervalued relative to the strength of China's economy.
"When I look at exports I am thrilled because they are going through the roof at the moment. But clearly, as the euro appreciates versus the yen, then it's a worry because Japan is one of our main markets when it comes to exports," she told Reuters on the sidelines of a meeting of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) political party.
"I think it's manageable as it stands but we are extremely attentive and cautious as to where it's going." she said.
China's yuan consolidated against the dollar on Friday but still set a fresh post-revaluation, intra-day high for the fourth straight day, and Lagarde said she thought it was undervalued.
"There has to be an adjustment between the economic factors of the (Chinese) economy and the currency, and clearly at the moment the currency is undervalued relative to the strength of the economy," she said.
"I think it's an issue which is a global issue, not an issue between France and China, but between China and the rest of the world," she added.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
e poi questa postata ieri mattina....
Net short yen position jumps to record - CFTC
Fri Sep 1, 2006 4:33pm ET
NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - International Money Market currency speculators upped bets against the yen to record highs in the week to Aug. 29, data released on Friday showed.
Net short yen positions increased to 88,329 contracts worth $9.46 billion, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Speculators also doubled net long Canadian dollar positions to 30,605 contracts worth $2.76 billion and only trimmed slightly bets in favor of euro and sterling.
Being "long" a currency is effectively a bet it will strengthen, while being "short" is a bet it will weaken.
When measured collectively against the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars, speculators were net short dollars to the tune of $13.9 billion, only slightly below a $14.3 net short position the prior week.
The yen has been one of the worst performing of the major currencies of late after data showing softer-than-expected consumer price gains cast doubt on whether the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates again in the near future.
The BOJ raised rates in July for the first time in six years, but at 0.25 percent, they still lag far behind U.S. and euro-zone rates, at 5.25 percent and 3 percent respectively.
The yen has remained a favored funding currency for investors who put on so-called "carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies such as the yen and converting into higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian or New Zealand dollar.
Many analysts expect the dollar also to be harmed by shifting interest rate differentials after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady last month after 17 straight increases.
The CFTC data on speculative positioning are often used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
For example, extreme net short or long positions in a currency often suggest a rebound is imminent because dealers might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
8/29/06 week 8/22/06 week
Long 33,920 30,853
Short 122,249 105,930
Net -88,329 -75,077
poi questi due grafici... relativi alla situazione dei bond weekly e della posizione dei commercial sui COT...
ed infine questa situazione dell'oex put/call ratio.... (di mercoledì ma va bene lo stesso)
e traete una conclusione