Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (4 lettori)

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Turkey needs Western money to help the lira, not rials from Qatar | Ahval


Turkey’s central bank has received an additional $10 billion in financial support from Qatar in the form of cross-currency swaps.

Expectations had intensified in recent weeks that Turkey, seeking a pile of hard cash to help deal with the COVID-19 outbreak and bolster its dwindling foreign currency reserves, would secure much-needed swap lines from abroad, alleviating pressure on the embattled lira.

But the reaction to news of the deal with Qatar – Turkey’s closest regional ally – was surprisingly muted. The lira, already off an all-time low of 7.269 per dollar reached on May 7, was little moved, continuing to trade down against the U.S. currency on Wednesday afternoon.

While the Qatari rial may not carry the financial weight of the U.S. dollar or euro, it is still ‘harder currency’ than the lira, which has a long record of steep depreciation and volatility.

Chronic inflation and financial crises in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s meant that you needed millions of liras to buy a dollar before the government lopped six zeroes off the currency in 2005. Just prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the lira had briefly traded at 1.15 per dollar, helped higher by surging direct foreign investment and portfolio inflows from abroad.


When news broke of an initial $3 billion in swaps from Qatar in August 2018, included in a wider $15 billion package of investment, the lira reacted positively. The cash pledge helped the currency recover from a deep crisis that had broken out days earlier. Economists and investors such as Charles Robertson at Renaissance Capital in London welcomed the deal, saying the cash was quick and accessible.

So why the muted reaction today? Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London, suggested that the extra $10 billion may merely constitute cash left unspent from the original 2008 agreement. The countries’ two central banks had agreed to increase the swap lines to $5 billion in November 2019, leaving $10 billion spare.

The cash is also coming from a country with questionable international standing. Qatar has been ostracised by regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and many Western politicians see developing relations with the kingdom as an unnecessary risk. Therefore, the arrival of the money is hardly a resounding win for a country looking for financial support from central banks elsewhere too.

What Turkey really needs is backing from the West.


But the U.S. Federal Reserve has already rejected an application from Ankara for swap lines, reportedly fearing that such support for Turkey, with its questionable record of economic and financial management, might set a precedent.

There is also the small matter of Turkey, a member of NATO, taking delivery of S-400 air defence missiles from Russia last year. U.S. legislators are still considering economic sanctions in response. And then we have the alleged involvement of senior Turkish politicians in a sanctions-busting scheme with Iran. The Turkish state-run Halkbank has been charged by U.S. prosecutors with complicity.

The reaction in the currency markets was very different earlier this week when news broke that Turkey’s central bank was reportedly very close to securing a total of $20 billion in swaps from the Britain and Japan. The lira jumped more than 1 percent in response, hitting its highest level in a month.

Securing funds from London and Tokyo would represent a positive turnaround in perceptions concerning Turkey’s relations with traditional global powers. At the core of Turkey’s economic and financial travails has been its increasing distance from the West, which has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy because of the resurgent regional ambitions of the country under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

As Erdoğan’s regional standing has grown, so has his vilification of Western governments and financial institutions, most recently for the latter’s alleged role in a scheme to damage the country’s economy through the currency markets.

Turkey’s banking regulator banned Citigroup Inc., Swiss bank UBS and French lender BNP Paribas from trading in the lira for four days earlier in May. An investigation against the companies continues.

Erdoğan has ruled out a new loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund to help Turkey through COVID-19, or even IMF cash that would require little or no economic reform, saying the institution is a tool of the West to maintain its global dominance. The days of Turkey’s reliance on the IMF are now over, the president maintains.

The European Central Bank has also reportedly rejected a request by Turkey for swap lines in euros. This is hardly surprising as Turkey’s relations with Europe have become fraught with tensions, particularly since a failed military coup in 2016 which provided a springboard for Erdoğan to crack down on his political opponents. The state of those ties now stands in stark contrast to the pre-2008 period, when Turkey began membership talks with the bloc and was implementing long-awaited democratic reforms.

In this strategic backdrop, largely of its own making, Turkey is being forced to look away from its traditional allies in the United States and Europe. But other G-7 countries are unlikely to come forward either.

A swap deal with Britain looks like a long shot. Prime Minister Boris Johnson may see the benefits of providing Turkey with capital as his government seeks alternative destinations for British goods and investment post-EU membership. But Britain has the second-highest death toll globally from COVID-19 after the United States, so selling such an agreement to the U.K. electorate would be fraught with political risk.

Japan has developed strong economic ties with Turkey under Erdoğan. Several of its largest companies are involved in construction projects in the country. But again a currency swap arrangement looks unlikely. Japan’s relations with Europe and the United States are still far strong than with Turkey.

Rather, Japan may provide direct loans to Turkey, most likely with the intention to finance ongoing and new investment projects in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country, according to sources.

So, it appears Turkey’s central bank, with its dwindling foreign currency reserves, is stuck with Qatar and the Qatari rial for the foreseeable future. The situation is unlikely to change for the foreseeable future.
 

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Fitch downgrades outlook for foreign-owned banks in Turkey | Ahval

Credit rating agency Fitch revised its Outlooks on Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (LTFC IDRs) of nine foreign-owned banks in Turkey.

ING Bank, Denizbank, QNB Finansbank, Türk Ekonomi Bankası, ICBC Turkey, Alternatifbank, Burgan Bank, Kuveyt Türk and Türkiye Finans were affected by Fitch’s reduced outlooks from “stable” to “negative”, according to a statement published on Wednesday.

“The Negative Outlooks reflect Fitch's view that the weakening of Turkey's external finances is increasing the risk of government intervention in the banking sector, which could impede the ability of all banks in the sector to service their foreign currency obligations,” the statement said.

“Fitch's view of government intervention risk caps the banks' LTFC IDRs at 'B+', one notch below Turkey's rating,” the rating agency said, adding that their Viability Ratings (VRs) remained unaffected by the rating action.

Turkey’s central bank has spent tens of billions of dollars of its foreign exchange reserves to bolster the Turkish lira. At the same time, the authorities have sought to starve trading in the offshore swaps market to stop short-selling of the currency.

The lira had slumped to an all-time low of 7.269 per dollar on May 7, as concerned investors and local deposit holders sold the currency.

Fitch said on Wednesday it acknowledged Turkey's high external funding requirement – a large share of which is sourced through the banking sector – creates a significant incentive to retain market access and avoid capital controls”.

Fitch announced on Tuesday it reduced the LTFC IDR outlooks for Turkey’s state-run Halkbank, Vakıfbank and Garanti BBVA from “stable” to “negative”, which the rating agency said reflected the banks’ weaker position in foreign currency reserves position, and “therefore reduced ability to support the banks in foreign currency in case of need”.
 

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Turkey needs ‘proper bazooka’ to prevent new lira lows | Ahval


Turkey requires currency swaps from the European Central Bank or the U.S. Federal Reserves to prevent the lira from weakening to fresh record lows, exchangerates.org said on Thursday, citing comments from Rabobank.

Possible deals with the Bank of England or the Japanese central bank would provide some support for the currency, but that may not be sufficient, Rabobank said, according to the currency news and analysis website.

The lira dropped to a record low of 7.269 per dollar on May 7, but has strengthened since, partly on speculation among investors that swap deals may be imminent. Turkey needs hard currency to help bolster the central bank’s reserves, which have been depleted in the lira’s defence, and to pay off a stockpile of foreign debt.

“To mark 7.2690 as the 2020 top in USD/TRY, a proper bazooka is required: Turkey would have to secure currency swap lines with the Fed and/or the ECB. Meanwhile, both central banks have reportedly rejected Turkey’s request,” Rabobank said.

Fed officials have signalled this month that Turkey does not qualify for swap arrangements made with several other countries. Political tensions over Turkey’s purchase of S-400 air defence missiles from Russia and a legal investigation of a Turkish state-run bank for flouting U.S. sanctions on Iran also provide potential stumbling blocks to a deal.

Rabobank said a break for the lira to a stronger level than 6.8 per dollar was crucial in signalling whether further gains would be possible. The lira traded down 0.4 percent at 6.81 per dollar on Friday.

Qatar is providing Turkey with an additional $10 billion equivalent in rial-lira currency swaps on top of $5 billion already pledged, the Turkish central bank announced this week. The agreement is a reflection of both countries’ reliance on each other’s political and economic support in regional affairs, Rabobank said.

There is also talk of a possible swap deal with China, but that would require Turkey to make a strong declaration of building closer economic and political ties with China at the expense of relations with the West, Rabobank said.


The decline in the central bank’s reserves and troubles for its tourism industry means Turkey is in serious need of hard cash, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, according to exchangerates.org.

“With little reserves to speak of and a growing trade deficit and the disruption of tourist flows (~12 percent of GDP) and roughly $80 billion in foreign currency debt coming due in three months, Turkey's back is against the wall,” Chandler said.

Rabobank said the currency swaps were no substitute for economic reform, which was needed to bolster the lira in the longer term.

“Without ambitious reforms - ideally overseen by a foreign independent institution with a high level of credibility – USD/TRY is likely to set another all-time high,” Rabobank said. “FX swap lines can delay this bullish process but will not prevent it.”

 

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Lira-Averse Banks Raise Concern in Turkey of Another Dollar Rush

Turkey’s push for faster credit growth is inadvertently eroding returns on lira savings, a consequence of pro-growth policies that officials fear might fuel demand for dollars.The government last month set ambitious targets for banks to boost lending and mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.But instead of rolling out new loans, some private lenders began aggressive cuts to interest rates on deposits after the banking regulator said they must raise a newly defined asset ratio to above 100%. Policy makers are now concerned lower rates might result in a rush for more dollars and create another source of imbalance as they try to stimulate the $750 billion economy, according to officials with direct knowledge of the matter.


“Lira deposit rates follow policy rates very closely,” Barclays Plc economist Ercan Erguzel said in an emailed note. “Bigger cuts on top of current levels, without a further drop in inflation expectations and/or actual inflation, would likely affect the dollarization trend, which has been stable for a while.”Sudden changes in saving patterns can act as a destabilizer for emerging economies such as Turkey, where more than half the savings in the banking sector is already denominated in foreign currencies. Additional demand for foreign exchange could present a particular challenge at a time of declining reserves, which is putting pressure on the currency and amplifying the burden on companies holding foreign debt.Central bank data on deposits underscore officials’ growing concern. Following the new regulation, the average rate lenders offer for lira accounts dropped to 8.4%, the lowest level since November 2013, according to most recent data.The drop was driven by private lenders, where lira deposits fell 3.4% within the first 3 weeks of the new asset-ratio requirement. State banks saw their local-currency deposits rise 7.9% during the same period as they chased credit growth more aggressively.Deposit rates well below consumer inflation are only one factor among many that determine how much foreign exchange Turks might want to hold. But lower rates for a sustained period might eventually force savers to buy more dollars, according to the officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss policy makers’ concerns.Officials at the regulator and the treasury declined to comment.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak have repeatedly slammed private banks for failing to support companies even before the coronavirus outbreak paralyzed economic activity. With the economy likely falling into a recession, the focus remains on credit even at the risk of growing vulnerabilities elsewhere.
 

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Turkish Airlines will maintain its staffing levels for two years, even as the coronavirus pandemic devastates global air travel, Chairman Ilker Ayci said in an interview with Haberturk news website.

“We see 2020 and 2021 not as years of profitability, but as years to protect employment,” Ayci said. “Our job is to resist layoffs, as much as we can afford to.” Global airlines’ revenue is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least the next couple of years, he said.

That said, no company can completely protect its workforce when there is a drop off in sales, so “all of us will need to make sacrifices,” Ayci said.

Flight bans and the prospect of reduced passenger numbers because of continued social distancing and hygiene measures to avoid Covid-19 infections pose a significant threat to airlines’ income. The number of passengers Turkish Airlines carried in March fell 53% from a year earlier, the latest figures show.

Read more here about the blow to Turkish tourism from the virus

To navigate this period, Turkish Airlines is assessing new sources of finance, including selling old planes, said Ayci. The priority is for the national carrier to resolve its funding challenges on its own, he said.

Here are some other highlights from the interview:

Turkish Airlines will reduce the size of its offices abroad, while slimming down some domestic branchesThe company will make its fleet “fitter,” as it pursues a line up of “younger and more efficient” aircraftApplying social distancing measures on aircraft is not “realistic,” according to AyciTicket prices will riseTurkish Airlines will have “hygiene experts” on board flights.
 

m.m.f

Forumer storico
Non bisogna mai sottovalutare Erdogan, anche se in calo di popolarità continua a mantenere saldo il potere giocando un ruolo di primo piano sugli scenari mediorientali (e non solo).


...nulla da dire politicamente parlando.Economicamente parlando la situazione sembrerebbe compromessa ...linee swap zero in realtà ,viene fuori che questi 10 mld facevano parte di una vecchia linea già concordata e definita diverso tempo addietro da quanto si legge. Non ci fosse stata da altre banche è venuto fuori meno di nulla.
 

NoToc

old style
Business news: Turchia, Bers stima ripresa economia del 6 per cento nel 2021
Ankara, 17 mag 05:00 - (Agenzia Nova) - L'economia turca si riprenderà nel 2021, con una crescita stimata del 6 per cento. Lo ha dichiarato la Banca europea per la ricostruzione e lo sviluppo (Bers), come riferisce l'agenzia stampa governativa "Anadolu". La Bers calcola per il 2020 una contrazione dell'economia turca del 3,5 per cento a causa dell'impatto della pandemia da coronavirus. Se ridotte entrate turistiche e una domanda esterna di prodotti turchi più debole costituisce un handicap, prezzi del greggio più bassi sono per Ankara un importante asset, ha aggiunto la Bers. L'economia turca è cresciuta del 2,6 per cento nel 2018 e dello 0,9 per cento nel 2019. Ad inizio aprile, la Banca mondiale ha previsto una crescita dell'economia turca dello 0,5 per cento quest'anno, tre punti in meno rispetto alle stime prima dell'emergenza coronavirus. Secondo l'aggiornamento economico per Europa e Asia centrale pubblicato dalla Banca mondiale, la crescita turca sarà sorretta da un forte stimolo governativo. Tra 2021 e 2022, invece, l'espansione dovrebbe raggiungere il 4 per cento. Il rapporto conclude prevedendo una crescita del deficit pubblico fino a raggiungere il 4,5 per cento del prodotto interno loro nel 2020, per poi abbassarsi al 2,9 per cento nel 2022 una volta rientrata l'emergenza sanitaria. (Tua)
© Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata

:up:

.......con la ripresa economica , dal prox anno migliorerà anche il cambio eur / lira turca a mio sommesso avviso :perfido:
 

Bzt

Forumer storico
Sensi (Pd): "Interrogazione su caso Giustino, profilo Fb cancellato dopo post anti Erdogan"
Interrogazione urgente al governo sulla vicenda sollevata da HuffPost: bloccato da 40 giorni l'account del corrispondente per Radio Radicale dopo critiche ad Ankara

(...)
Dal 16 aprile scorso l’account Facebook di Giustino risulta cancellato dopo aver scritto il seguente post critico verso il governo di Ankara: “Carceri Turchia. Questa notte, grazie alla legge sull’esecuzione penale è stato rilasciato un membro della criminalità, alaattin Çakici, appartenente ai lupi grigi. La legge concede la riduzione della pena per 90mila prigionieri, ma non per giornalisti, politici di opposizione e attivisti per i diritti umani”.
(...)


https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/sensi-pd-interrogazione-su-caso-giustino_it_5ec940d1c5b63665b26962f9
 

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