Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca

[m.m.f]

3d da evitare nel modo più assoluto.

...concordo soprattutto per presenza di doppi profili .

 

[pietro17elettra]

Turkey's lira support plan comes with potential costs - Fitch 22/12/2021 17:12 - RSF
LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's radical new plan to support the lira and discourage dollarisation comes with obvious potential costs, one of Fitch's top sovereign analysts said on Wednesday, adding time would be needed to see if it worked or not.

Fitch put Turkey's BB- rating on a downgrade warning earlier this month as a slump in the lira threatened to run out of control. (news)

"Ultimately, it is about confidence in the currency," Fitch's Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, Paul Gamble, told Reuters, referring to Turkey's plan to guard local currency savings against major FX market falls. (news)

"Clearly there is a new potential liability for the sovereign balance sheet," he added. But if this approach works... there could no liability."
"We really need to take stock and understand the effect of this new interest rate tool."

(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Carolyn Cohn)
(([email protected]; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters Messaging: [email protected] Twitter @marcjonesrtrs))

 

[Jsvmax79]

Turkey’s Plan to Save the Lira Is a Risky Bluff

The country’s plan to bring money back into the lira is a clever appeal to the retail savers now driving the currency’s gyrations. If it doesn’t work, though, its entire banking system could be compromised.

www.wsj.com

 

[FNAIOS]

Per ridare fiato alla Lira deve alzare i tassi: almeno dieci punti sopra.
Ma non può farlo, ci tiene alla cadrega.

Io mi sto godendo un po' di gain virtuale sul BEI XS1861204938 (equivalente a un investimento in leva short EUR/TRY) comprato ieri dopo che Erdogan ha parlato, averlo comprato prima era meglio, ma quello è matto e ciò che ha fatto (la differenza $ -£ la pago io) è una coglionata pazzesca per ora. In pratica un Turco ora apre un conto, prende a prestito a tasso X della banca centrale turca tot £ e ci guadagna perché lo stato gli fa da £ hedged. La spesa statale aumenterà a dismisura, quindi le tasse, quindi probabilmente nuove emissioni di bond (TdS). Non è certo la soluzione. Speriamo che arrivi zio Putin che gli fa passare parecchia roba sotto le chiappe a Erdogan (turkstream).

 

[pietro17elettra]

UPDATE 1-Turkey's state banks boosted lira rally after Erdogan rescue plan -four sources 23/12/2021 14:52 - RSF
* One source says $3 bln sold Monday-Tuesday
* Lira rallied from record lows after scheme announced
* Central bank backed massive interventions in 2019-2020

(Adds past interventions, details on sales)
By Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu and Ebru Tuncay
ANKARA, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Turkey's state banks aggressively sold dollars this week, boosting a rally in the lira after President Tayyip Erdogan announced a deposit-protection scheme meant to stem a currency crisis, according to four sources familiar with the moves.

The selling coincided with a drop in the central bank's foreign reserves, according to official data and a trader who told Reuters they declined by nearly $6 billion on Monday and Tuesday alone.

A second source, a chief bank advisor, said state bank interventions on Monday and Tuesday totalled $3 billion. The other two sources, including a senior Turkish official, said the interventions were intense and extended later in the week.

The three big state banks - Ziraat Bank, Vakif Bank and Halk Bank - did not immediately comment on possible interventions. The central bank was not immediately available to comment.

The lira has soared more than 50% this week, rebounding from record lows, after Erdogan late on Monday announced a scheme in which the Treasury and central bank would guarantee some local currency deposits against depreciation losses. (news)

In 2019-2020, the central bank backed, via swaps, the sale of some $128 billion via state banks to stabilize the lira, depleting Turkey's foreign reserves. Earlier this year, the sales emerged as a focus of what the political opposition calls government mismanagement.
To address the latest market turmoil, the central bank has announced five direct market interventions this month that bankers say totalled between $6-$10 billion. It has made no intervention notices this week.

Official data shows that the bank's net foreign reserves dropped to $12 billion last week, from $21 billion a week earlier, as the interventions weighed.

The government says the deposit-protection scheme encourages Turks to hold lira rather than hard currencies, which account for more than half of local savings. (news)

Analysts have warned that if the lira's rally fizzles and reverses, the scheme could further stoke inflation, add to public debt, and eat into foreign reserves.

Faik Oztrak, spokesperson for the main political opposition CHP, said on Twitter the lira shot up "apparently due to selling foreign currency through the back door again," citing a $6-billion drop in net reserves on Monday and Tuesday.

Ziraat Chief Executive Alpaslan Cakar, who also heads the Turkish Banks Association, said the overall dollar-selling pressure amounted to about $1 billion in markets on Monday after Erdogan's announcement. (news)




(Reporting by Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu and Ebru Tuncay; Writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
(([email protected]; Reuters Messaging: [email protected] @jonathanspicer))

 

[tommy271]

Io mi sto godendo un po' di gain virtuale sul BEI XS1861204938 (equivalente a un investimento in leva short EUR/TRY) comprato ieri dopo che Erdogan ha parlato, averlo comprato prima era meglio, ma quello è matto e ciò che ha fatto (la differenza $ -£ la pago io) è una coglionata pazzesca per ora. In pratica un Turco ora apre un conto, prende a prestito a tasso X della banca centrale turca tot £ e ci guadagna perché lo stato gli fa da £ hedged. La spesa statale aumenterà a dismisura, quindi le tasse, quindi probabilmente nuove emissioni di bond (TdS). Non è certo la soluzione. Speriamo che arrivi zio Putin che gli fa passare parecchia roba sotto le chiappe a Erdogan (turkstream).

In Turchia son presente con la 2034 in $.
Se si presenta l'occasione, incremento.
I vari BEI non mi attraggono ... ma ad ogni palato, il suo gusto.


Per non saper leggere, nè scrivere mi fa piacere (e qui riallaccio i miei post di giorni fa) riportare la Reuters postata da Pietro qui sopra:
(...)
The selling coincided with a drop in the central bank's foreign reserves, according to official data and a trader who told Reuters they declined by nearly $6 billion on Monday and Tuesday alone.
A second source, a chief bank advisor, said state bank interventions on Monday and Tuesday totalled $3 billion. The other two sources, including a senior Turkish official, said the interventions were intense and extended later in the week.
(...)
Official data shows that the bank's net foreign reserves dropped to $12 billion last week, from $21 billion a week earlier, as the interventions weighed.
(...)
Faik Oztrak, spokesperson for the main political opposition CHP, said on Twitter the lira shot up "apparently due to selling foreign currency through the back door again," citing a $6-billion drop in net reserves on Monday and Tuesday.
(...)

 

[m.m.f]

The Turkey 5 Years CDS value is 623.9 (last update: 23 Dec 2021 10:45 GMT+0). This value reveals a 10.40% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. CDS value changed +19.57% during last week, +40.79% during last month, +88.47% during last year. Current CDS value reached its 1 year maximum value

 

[angy2008]

stando agli ultimi post ha dato una bella sforbiciata alle riserve. Non mi pare una bella pensata forzare tanto la mano per rafforzare la lira, cosí facendo si carica di un cambio oneroso in partenza sui nuovi depositi a termine garantiti, un giochino che porterá danni se non riesce a recuperare la fiducia dei mercati

 

[FNAIOS]

In Turchia son presente con la 2034 in $.
Se si presenta l'occasione, incremento.
I vari BEI non mi attraggono ... ma ad ogni palato, il suo gusto.


Per non saper leggere, nè scrivere mi fa piacere (e qui riallaccio i miei post di giorni fa) riportare la Reuters postata da Pietro qui sopra:
(...)
The selling coincided with a drop in the central bank's foreign reserves, according to official data and a trader who told Reuters they declined by nearly $6 billion on Monday and Tuesday alone.
A second source, a chief bank advisor, said state bank interventions on Monday and Tuesday totalled $3 billion. The other two sources, including a senior Turkish official, said the interventions were intense and extended later in the week.
(...)
Official data shows that the bank's net foreign reserves dropped to $12 billion last week, from $21 billion a week earlier, as the interventions weighed.
(...)
Faik Oztrak, spokesperson for the main political opposition CHP, said on Twitter the lira shot up "apparently due to selling foreign currency through the back door again," citing a $6-billion drop in net reserves on Monday and Tuesday.
(...)

Quindi starebbero alla frutta a tal punto da aggiotaggiarsi addosso coi $? Po' esse (whatever it takes dei poveri). Perché non ti piace il BEI? Quelli emessi proprio da Erdogan non piacciono a me...

 

[breni]

notevole la prosecuzione dell'apprezzamento della lira, si direbbe che prosegue la conversione di valuta estera in lira, con appunto la garanzia statale sul rendimento...
Queste idee fantasiose su come gestire la valuta sono però pericolose. Non ho letto bene gli articoli; ma la garanzia statale dovrebbe coprire completamente eventuali perdite dovute alla svalutazione sul dollaro? Sarebbe conveniente indebitarsi in dollari, cambiarli in lire e depositare: se va bene la lira si apprezza, se va male paga lo stato, con che soldi si vedrà (maggior debito o monetizzazione?).