Topgun1976
Guest
I'm Study
but Dz is 54 price is not discount,not cheap for meRbs is Opa Bond,or Antonveneta ,Or Nibc Bank
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Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione caligola2005
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
I'm Study
but Dz is 54 price is not discount,not cheap for meRbs is Opa Bond,or Antonveneta ,Or Nibc Bank
diritto
Forumer attivo
Ci perdi 2 mesi di rateo e le commissioni bancarie ....
Ecco cosa mi sfuggiva, il rateo.
L'avevo letto ma non me lo ricordavo.
Grazie a tutti.
lory
Forumer attivo
Topgun1976
Guest
Sarà ma io rimango liquido al 60%,se sale va bene,se scende benissimo .
A parte Mps/ant non vedo particolari affari in giro.
Poi tra poco ferie quindi meglio lasciare poco investito..
A parte Mps/ant non vedo particolari affari in giro.
Poi tra poco ferie quindi meglio lasciare poco investito..
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
Mps 827 73.00qualcuno ha price della group 464
Bp 290 65.00/67.50
Group 464 59.50/61.25
buy cip mps @ 73.00
Group sta continuando a salire...
camaleonte
Forumer storico
bia06
Listen other's viewpoint avoid conflicts & wars.
Topgun1976
Guest
Certo
diritto
Forumer attivo
Ho piazzato un ordine in vendita a 17,68_
discipline
Guest
Recentemente si parlava di Lloyds, un'analisi dei sub da un noto utente del forum inglese fool.co.uk:
With market prices of subordinated debt and preference shares having moved up significantly since early January the task of unearthing interesting fixed income opportunities has become a bit more challenging. This week I have been concentrating on ploughing through the 30 plus issues of Lloyds Banking Group Tier 1 securities looking for any opportunities I have missed. In particular I have been looking at issues with near dated first or next call dates which are trading well below par. I feel that this is the best opportunity if you can second guess which issues are most likely to be called. Of course the risk is that they are not called and you are left with a lousy reset rate so I give preference to issues with a reasonable reset rate. In terms estimating the relative chances of an issues being called I think the main considerations are:
1. The impact of Basel 3
2. Economic to call
3. Opportunity to exchange
Taking each in turn. I discussed the impact of Basel 3 in my Subordinated Debt Thoughts for 2012. It is clear that all current Tier 1 securities will not qualify as Additional Tier 1 Capital under Basel 3 and so qualification will either be phased out over 10 years starting 1 Jan 2013 or, where there is an incentive to redeem and a call date later than 31 Dec 2012, disqualified from the first call date. The issues with a clear 'incentive to redeem' are those with a step-up after the first call date. There are no really obvious candidates here with a near dated next call.
Whether or not an issue will be 'economic to call' will depend somewhat on reference rates (the GRY on 5 Year Gilts in most cases) at the date of the call decision and the funding costs for the bank at that time. With both 3M LIBOR and 5 Year Gilts currently hovering around 1% there are no obvious candidates with near dated next calls which look nailed on to be called on economic grounds. But there are several with reset rates at least 350 bps above the reference rate which should have a reasonable chance if Gilt yield move to more 'normal' levels over the next few years.
When Lloyds announced its ECN Exchange Offer back in November 2009 they indicated to the market that going forward bonds which had the opportunity to exchange into ECNs would only be called on an economic basis. Some read this as implying that those not having had the opportunity to exchange would be called. For example Stephen Snowden of Old Mutual Asset Managers wrote:
Lloyds stated that any bond with the opportunity to exchange into a CoCo which chose not to take up the offer will be called on the first call date only if it is economic for Lloyds to do so. Although some bonds will become perpetuals, not all will have the opportunity to be exchanged into CoCos. While Lloyds cannot say that it will call those bonds that have not exchanged, the implicit message was clear that bondholders should expect the few remaining subordinated bonds that were not offered an exchange to be called.
I would not rely on this interpretation but it could well have some merit especially if Lloyds want to build bridges with institutional holders of its subordinated debt. Lloyds did recently make a tender exchange offer (into high coupon T2) for a T1 issue (GB0058322420) which missed out on ECN exchange and which had a call blocked by the EC restriction although we do not yet know whether they will call the rump on the next call date.
Once issue which I had not previously looked at stands out as having at least a tick or a question mark in all boxes. This is a Bank of Scotland Preferred Security with ISIN XS0109138536. It was issued in 2000 with a coupon of 8.117% and first call date of 31 March 2010. However, due to the EC coupon and redemption restriction Lloyds were unable to redeem it on that date and so the coupon was reset to 6.059% (the then 5 Year Gilt yield plus 385 bps). From my reading of the Prospectus (note the terms of this security start on page 80) the 6.059% coupon runs until the next optional call date of 31 May 2015. Given that the current yield on 5 Year Gilts is just 1% this unusual reset mechanism is currently working in favour of holders. Another favourable feature is that the coupon can only be deferred on capital adequacy and insufficient reserves grounds and so the issue continued to pay during the 2 year EC suspension of discretionary coupons. It also missed out on ECN exchange so ticks the box if the theory that Lloyds will call issues not given the opportunity to exchange is correct. The next call date is 31 May 2015 and if not called then the next call date will be 31 May 2020. I think this makes it more likely to be called in 2015 for Basel 3 reasons. The issuer does have a regulatory call option in the event that the security ceases to qualify as Tier 1 capital but this is at a make whole price based on the GRY on a reference Gilt + 0.5%. The make whole price on this basis will likely be above par which also makes the chance of the 2015 par call being exercised seem more likely in my view.
The issue size is a healthy £250 million and, as a sterling bond, it should also be a QCB. The minimum dealing size is £1,000 which brings it within reach of retail buyers and it trades on a tight spread. Offered at about 70 the income yield is 8.66% and the Yield to Next Call is 20.39% which for an issue with a decent chance of being called looks very attractive.
Call or no call? - Fixed Income Investments Information
With market prices of subordinated debt and preference shares having moved up significantly since early January the task of unearthing interesting fixed income opportunities has become a bit more challenging. This week I have been concentrating on ploughing through the 30 plus issues of Lloyds Banking Group Tier 1 securities looking for any opportunities I have missed. In particular I have been looking at issues with near dated first or next call dates which are trading well below par. I feel that this is the best opportunity if you can second guess which issues are most likely to be called. Of course the risk is that they are not called and you are left with a lousy reset rate so I give preference to issues with a reasonable reset rate. In terms estimating the relative chances of an issues being called I think the main considerations are:
1. The impact of Basel 3
2. Economic to call
3. Opportunity to exchange
Taking each in turn. I discussed the impact of Basel 3 in my Subordinated Debt Thoughts for 2012. It is clear that all current Tier 1 securities will not qualify as Additional Tier 1 Capital under Basel 3 and so qualification will either be phased out over 10 years starting 1 Jan 2013 or, where there is an incentive to redeem and a call date later than 31 Dec 2012, disqualified from the first call date. The issues with a clear 'incentive to redeem' are those with a step-up after the first call date. There are no really obvious candidates here with a near dated next call.
Whether or not an issue will be 'economic to call' will depend somewhat on reference rates (the GRY on 5 Year Gilts in most cases) at the date of the call decision and the funding costs for the bank at that time. With both 3M LIBOR and 5 Year Gilts currently hovering around 1% there are no obvious candidates with near dated next calls which look nailed on to be called on economic grounds. But there are several with reset rates at least 350 bps above the reference rate which should have a reasonable chance if Gilt yield move to more 'normal' levels over the next few years.
When Lloyds announced its ECN Exchange Offer back in November 2009 they indicated to the market that going forward bonds which had the opportunity to exchange into ECNs would only be called on an economic basis. Some read this as implying that those not having had the opportunity to exchange would be called. For example Stephen Snowden of Old Mutual Asset Managers wrote:
Lloyds stated that any bond with the opportunity to exchange into a CoCo which chose not to take up the offer will be called on the first call date only if it is economic for Lloyds to do so. Although some bonds will become perpetuals, not all will have the opportunity to be exchanged into CoCos. While Lloyds cannot say that it will call those bonds that have not exchanged, the implicit message was clear that bondholders should expect the few remaining subordinated bonds that were not offered an exchange to be called.
I would not rely on this interpretation but it could well have some merit especially if Lloyds want to build bridges with institutional holders of its subordinated debt. Lloyds did recently make a tender exchange offer (into high coupon T2) for a T1 issue (GB0058322420) which missed out on ECN exchange and which had a call blocked by the EC restriction although we do not yet know whether they will call the rump on the next call date.
Once issue which I had not previously looked at stands out as having at least a tick or a question mark in all boxes. This is a Bank of Scotland Preferred Security with ISIN XS0109138536. It was issued in 2000 with a coupon of 8.117% and first call date of 31 March 2010. However, due to the EC coupon and redemption restriction Lloyds were unable to redeem it on that date and so the coupon was reset to 6.059% (the then 5 Year Gilt yield plus 385 bps). From my reading of the Prospectus (note the terms of this security start on page 80) the 6.059% coupon runs until the next optional call date of 31 May 2015. Given that the current yield on 5 Year Gilts is just 1% this unusual reset mechanism is currently working in favour of holders. Another favourable feature is that the coupon can only be deferred on capital adequacy and insufficient reserves grounds and so the issue continued to pay during the 2 year EC suspension of discretionary coupons. It also missed out on ECN exchange so ticks the box if the theory that Lloyds will call issues not given the opportunity to exchange is correct. The next call date is 31 May 2015 and if not called then the next call date will be 31 May 2020. I think this makes it more likely to be called in 2015 for Basel 3 reasons. The issuer does have a regulatory call option in the event that the security ceases to qualify as Tier 1 capital but this is at a make whole price based on the GRY on a reference Gilt + 0.5%. The make whole price on this basis will likely be above par which also makes the chance of the 2015 par call being exercised seem more likely in my view.
The issue size is a healthy £250 million and, as a sterling bond, it should also be a QCB. The minimum dealing size is £1,000 which brings it within reach of retail buyers and it trades on a tight spread. Offered at about 70 the income yield is 8.66% and the Yield to Next Call is 20.39% which for an issue with a decent chance of being called looks very attractive.
Call or no call? - Fixed Income Investments Information
- Stato
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