fabriziof
Forumer storico
altro che lira Squinzi: senza euro pil da -20 a -50%
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2 (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione caligola2005
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Occhio alla call di Generali di MS
Bracing for a Potential Generali Non-Call
Events are conspiring against Generali calling the €6.9% 22NC12s in July, and we remain sellers as a result. Upon a potential non-call, we see risk on the downside to current pricing, its extent being sensitive to possible compensating actions by the group.
We see a strong desire at the group to meet investor expectations and to avoid associated negative headlines: As with other major European insurers and Italian financials, Generali has a strong call track record. By our calculations, the last day the group can issue a call notice is July 5, 2012
But in our view events have reduced the call’s likelihood: The macro backdrop has clearly deteriorated and become more complex, increasing solvency pressures across the European insurance sector, and we have witnessed a change in CEO at Generali.
Plus, market conditions have conspired against an economically priced refinancing, in our view a likely regulatory precondition for redemption approval.
We’re not expecting a non-call accompanied by no compensating actions: We would expect clear communication from Generali (within regulatory constraints) that this is only a temporary move reflecting market conditions – bonds can be redeemed every six months post the first call date. We believe that the regulator may also permit an increase to the bond’s floating-rate coupon (currently 6-month euribor+200bp) to further soften the non-call impact.
Still selling the € 6.9% 22NC12s (bid at 95, YTM of 4.6%; YTC YE13 of 6.7%): We believe market pricing does not capture potential bond extension risks. In the event of a non-call, we can see prices dropping further from here, even assuming only a short call delay to YE13.
Potential pricing downside is hard to predict: Key will be Generali’s subsequent efforts to placate bondholders.
Bracing for a Potential Generali Non-Call
Events are conspiring against Generali calling the €6.9% 22NC12s in July, and we remain sellers as a result. Upon a potential non-call, we see risk on the downside to current pricing, its extent being sensitive to possible compensating actions by the group.
We see a strong desire at the group to meet investor expectations and to avoid associated negative headlines: As with other major European insurers and Italian financials, Generali has a strong call track record. By our calculations, the last day the group can issue a call notice is July 5, 2012
But in our view events have reduced the call’s likelihood: The macro backdrop has clearly deteriorated and become more complex, increasing solvency pressures across the European insurance sector, and we have witnessed a change in CEO at Generali.
Plus, market conditions have conspired against an economically priced refinancing, in our view a likely regulatory precondition for redemption approval.
We’re not expecting a non-call accompanied by no compensating actions: We would expect clear communication from Generali (within regulatory constraints) that this is only a temporary move reflecting market conditions – bonds can be redeemed every six months post the first call date. We believe that the regulator may also permit an increase to the bond’s floating-rate coupon (currently 6-month euribor+200bp) to further soften the non-call impact.
Still selling the € 6.9% 22NC12s (bid at 95, YTM of 4.6%; YTC YE13 of 6.7%): We believe market pricing does not capture potential bond extension risks. In the event of a non-call, we can see prices dropping further from here, even assuming only a short call delay to YE13.
Potential pricing downside is hard to predict: Key will be Generali’s subsequent efforts to placate bondholders.
fabriziof
Forumer storico
io ne ho prese pochissime a 96 e rotti,se anche callasse tra 6 mesi non sarebbe un dramma,se poi aumentasse la cedola...unicredit 2017 è già bassina pensi che potrebbe perdere molto?
samantaao
Forumer storico
se parli delle 17-18, quelle stanno già ad 80 con rendimenti alla call decenti
questa se non calla va al 2022... a quanto cadrebbe la quotazione?
Andre_Sant
Forumer storico
come notate dice esattamente le stesse cose che dicevo io ieri sul fol..
scenario si: call
scenario no: aumento post call e/o promessa di call imminente
ciao
Andrea
scenario si: call
scenario no: aumento post call e/o promessa di call imminente
ciao
Andrea
Ultima modifica:
fabriziof
Forumer storico
già, bisogna vedere se ci azzeccate
Andre_Sant
Forumer storico
innocentiproject
Forumer attivo
avevo lasciato ieir un ordine su amsterdam da 25k limitato a 54 che mi è stato parzialmente eseguito per 10k a 53,6.
credo sia successo ieri in close (non ho seguito oltre le 17e15).
entro sera SNS 155 ha la conferma al 100% di staccare la cedola giusto?
- Stato