Fitch Places SNS REAAL on RWN; Affirms SNS Bank at 'BBB+'
18 Jul 2012 10:56 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London/Paris-18 July 2012: Fitch Ratings has placed SNS REAAL's Long- and Short-term IDRs, Support Rating and Support Rating Floor on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The agency has also placed SNS Bank's Viability Rating (VR) of 'bbb-' on RWN and affirmed its Long-term IDR at 'BBB+'. The Outlook on SNS Bank's Long-term IDRs is Stable. A list of rating actions is at the end of this comment.
SNS REAAL announced on 13 July that it is considering various capital strengthening options which Fitch understands include the possible sale of part or all of the insurance business. Fitch placed SNS REAAL's insurance operations on RWE (see 'Fitch places SNS Insurance Activities on Rating Watch Evolving', dated 16 July 2012 available at
Fitch Ratings - Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating) as a result of the announcement.
The RWN on SNS REAAL's ratings reflects Fitch's view that if all or the majority of the group's insurance operations are sold, potential future support from the authorities in case of need would likely be provided to SNS Bank directly rather than through the holding company. The disposal of insurance entities could therefore reduce the probability of state support currently factored into SNS REAAL's IDRs, Support Rating and Support Rating Floor, which could lead to them being downgraded.
Fitch expects to resolve the RWN once it obtains further clarity on the likelihood that part or all of the insurance assets will be sold. Fitch notes that the final decision on the various options may take more than six months, the usual time horizon for a Rating Watch. The agency understands that the divestment is one of the various capital strengthening possibilities that the group is exploring to generate enough capital to repay state support (EUR850m at end-2011 including the 50% repayment premium) by end-2013, as committed to the European Commission (EC). While Fitch understands that this may generate additional capital for the bank, it considers the scenario is unlikely in the short term.
Fitch believes the possibility of a partial or full divestment of the insurance operations could increase constraints on the bank's financial flexibility. These are further impacted by the protracted difficult economic conditions and further strains in property markets in the Netherlands and the rest of the eurozone. The cumulative potential negative impact of these factors on the bank's earnings, asset quality and ultimately capital is viewed to have increased and the bank's capital position remains under pressure.
Fitch expects to resolve the RWN on the bank's VR after obtaining further information on the bank's performance, including an analysis of first-half results, scheduled for 16 August 2012. If the risk profile of the property finance book has increased, or the bank's capital position or leverage have deteriorated or its franchise weakened, SNS Bank's VR is likely to be downgraded to below investment grade.
Conversely, SNS Bank's VR is likely to be removed from RWN and affirmed if the bank demonstrates continued deleveraging reducing its risk profile, improved capitalisation and rebalanced funding mix. At this point, Fitch will also take a decision on the potential impact of a possible sale of the insurance operations on the bank.
SNS Bank's Support Rating and SRF continue to reflect the high probability of support from the Dutch state being made available if required. SNS Bank's Long-term IDR is at its SRF, which means it is sensitive to any weakening of the Dutch state's ability or willingness to provide support.
The Hybrid Tier 1 securities are notched off SNS Bank's VR in line with Fitch's rating criteria for such securities. As such, their ratings are sensitive to any changes in the banks' VRs and the RWN placed on their rating reflects the RWN placed on SNS Bank's VR.
The rating actions are as follows:
SNS REAAL:
Long-term IDR: 'BBB+'; placed on RWN
Short-term IDR: 'F2'; placed on RWN
Support Rating: '2' ; placed on RWN
Support Rating Floor: 'BBB+' ; placed on RWN
SNS Bank:
Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'F2'
Viability Rating: 'bbb-'; placed on RWN
Senior debt: affirmed at 'BBB+'
Market linked notes: affirmed at 'BBB+(emr)'
Hybrid Tier 1 securities: 'B+'; placed on RWN
Commercial paper: affirmed at 'F2'
Support Rating: affirmed at '2'
Support Rating Floor: affirmed at 'BBB+'
Dutch government guaranteed securities: affirmed at 'AAA'