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sono OT ma volevo condividere una considerazione sulla notizia di ieri del possibile sblocco dei pagamenti dello stato... stamattina Jpm scriveva così:
Payment of arrears could be a big boost for Italian growth
Yesterday the European Commission released a statement to encourage governments in the region to pay arrears. There are new rules coming into place this month to limit the build-up of arrears, but these do not apply to the outstanding stock of arrears. But, we expect governments to come under increasing pressure to deal with this outstanding stock. The statement says “we need to do all that we can to ensure businesses will be paid for the goods and services they have delivered, also in order to address existing liquidity constraints”.
The statement specifically mentions Italy. It states that Italy should deal with its outstanding arrears quickly. This will involve an increase in public debt, but this will be allowed for within the context of the stability and growth pact. In our view, this is a very important development, which will help the real economy stabilize and start to grow again.
According to the Italian treasury, arrears stand at around €60-70bn (4-5% of GDP). These arrears are largely payments due from local administrations to small and medium sized enterprises. The treasury has spent some time creating a system of certification of arrears to ensure that they are authentic and a process for paying arrears directly to enterprises, rather than through local administrations.
With the European Commission’s authority, the Italian treasury is good to go on the payment of these arrears. In our view, this is hugely important in terms of easing the credit crunch for small and medium sized enterprises. Payment of arrears will add a significant amount of liquidity to the economy, helping growth momentum. The payment of arrears could do much more for the Italian economy in the near term than anything the ECB could do.
We might look to Greece to see the impact. Huge arrears have built up in Greece over recent years and the release of program funds late last year began to deal with this problem. In our view, it is no coincidence that business sentiment has leapt in Greece in recent months and now stands close to the Euro area average. The payment of arrears in Italy could deliver a significant boost to corporate sentiment and growth.
Payment of arrears could be a big boost for Italian growth
Yesterday the European Commission released a statement to encourage governments in the region to pay arrears. There are new rules coming into place this month to limit the build-up of arrears, but these do not apply to the outstanding stock of arrears. But, we expect governments to come under increasing pressure to deal with this outstanding stock. The statement says “we need to do all that we can to ensure businesses will be paid for the goods and services they have delivered, also in order to address existing liquidity constraints”.
The statement specifically mentions Italy. It states that Italy should deal with its outstanding arrears quickly. This will involve an increase in public debt, but this will be allowed for within the context of the stability and growth pact. In our view, this is a very important development, which will help the real economy stabilize and start to grow again.
According to the Italian treasury, arrears stand at around €60-70bn (4-5% of GDP). These arrears are largely payments due from local administrations to small and medium sized enterprises. The treasury has spent some time creating a system of certification of arrears to ensure that they are authentic and a process for paying arrears directly to enterprises, rather than through local administrations.
With the European Commission’s authority, the Italian treasury is good to go on the payment of these arrears. In our view, this is hugely important in terms of easing the credit crunch for small and medium sized enterprises. Payment of arrears will add a significant amount of liquidity to the economy, helping growth momentum. The payment of arrears could do much more for the Italian economy in the near term than anything the ECB could do.
We might look to Greece to see the impact. Huge arrears have built up in Greece over recent years and the release of program funds late last year began to deal with this problem. In our view, it is no coincidence that business sentiment has leapt in Greece in recent months and now stands close to the Euro area average. The payment of arrears in Italy could deliver a significant boost to corporate sentiment and growth.
