Il "ragionamento" di S&P dietro il downgrade odierno di Groupama:
S&P Downgrades Groupama S.A. To 'BBB-'; Watch Negative
Reuters - 15/12/2011 15:56:06
-- We believe that France-based insurer Groupama S.A.'s capital adequacy and regulatory solvency are at weak levels amid continuing highly adverse capital markets and in spite of the company's announced key strategic actions.
-- We aretherefore lowering our long-term ratings on Groupama S.A. and its guaranteed subsidiaries to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'.
-- We are lowering our issue ratings on Groupama's hybrid capital issues to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
-- We are also lowering long-termratings on Groupama GAN Vie to 'BB+' from 'BBB'.
-- We are maintaining all of these ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications due to our view of the remaining execution risks associated with management's plan to restore regulatorysolvency.
PARIS (Standard & Poor's) Dec. 15, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on France-based composite insurer Groupama S.A. and its guaranteed subsidiaries to 'BBB-'from 'BBB'.
At the same time, Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term ratings on Groupama GAN Vie to 'BB+' from 'BBB'. In addition, we lowered our issue ratings on Groupama's hybrid capital issues to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
We maintained all of our ratings on companies in the Groupama group on CreditWatch with negative implications.
The ratings on Groupama Banque (BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3) are unaffected by the above rating actions.
The downgrade reflects our view that Groupama's capital adequacy and regulatory solvency are at weak levels amid highly adverse financial markets, in spite of key strategic actions that the company has announced. These levels are in our view no longer commensurate with our 'BBB' ratings.
We acknowledge that newmanagement in place at Groupama is implementing comprehensive strategic actions to restore regulatory solvency and capital adequacy to levels that would be consistent with 'BBB' category ratings. In addition to those actions that we already referred to in our previous research update on Groupama ("French Insurer Groupama S.A. Ratings Downgraded To 'BBB' From 'BBB+'; Outlook Negative," published Sept. 23, 2011), management is also considering additional measures that could significantly restore thegroup's regulatory solvency. In particular, the company announced on Dec. 13, 2011, the planned combination of Icade, a subsidiary of Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC; AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+) specialized in real estate development activities andservices, and Societe Immobiliere de Location pour l'Industrie et le Commerce (SILIC), as well as CDC's planned entrance into subsidiary GAN Eurocourtage's capital via a minority stake. We assume this transaction will be completed in full in accordance with the memorandum of understanding signed by Groupama and CDC group on Dec. 13, 2011. However, even when taking into account this assumption, Groupama's regulatory solvency and capital adequacy remains in our view weak and further exposed to adverse events, in particular if capital markets were to deteriorate further.
The ratings on Groupama GAN Vie reflect our redesignation of the subsidiary as "strategically important" rather than "core" previously. We now cap the rating at one notch belowthe rating on the parent. The redesignation results from the application of our group rating methodology when a company has a relatively weaker level of capital adequacy than the group as a whole.
The ratings on Groupama Banque reflect its continued"strategically important" status. The rating is now based on the bank's stand-alone credit profile and is capped by the rating on its parent.
The ratings on Groupama's hybrids reflect the standard two-notch gapping for an investment-grade issuer under our methodology. We continue to believe that Groupama has both the will and the liquidity to maintain full servicing of both the interest and principal of its rated debt obligations.
CreditWatch The maintenance of the CreditWatch placement reflectsthe uncertainty around the execution of management's strategic actions to restore regulatory solvency. In particular and in the short term, we will continue to assess the regulatory solvency benefits of the planned combination of Icade and SILIC as well as CDC's entrance into GAN Eurocourtage's capital. Should the benefits not be fully reflected in the company's regulatory solvency margin by year-end 2011, and all things being equal, we may downgrade the ratings on Groupama by one notch.
Evenif the benefits of the above transaction are fully reflected in Groupama's regulatory solvency by year-end 2011, we would likely still maintain Groupama's ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications. This would reflect our view of the executionrisks attached to remaining strategic actions that management may take to restore regulatory solvency.
We aim to resolve the CreditWatch action within 90 days and to provide updates during that time as the company continues to implement its strategicaction plan. We may lower or affirm the ratings depending on whether the company successfully executes the actions. We may also lower the ratings if capital markets deteriorate further with adverse implications for Groupama's solvency or if thecompany's underlying operating performance or competitive position were to deteriorate.
If we were to lower the ratings on Groupama to the speculative-grade category (that is 'BB+' or below), we would also widen the notching on Groupama's hybridsecurities to a minimum of three notches below its ratings from two notches currently. We may decide to further increase the number of notches if we perceive that interest payment deferral risk has heightened.