solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
forse si anzi.... la bpce potrebbe aver richiamato il floater in usd... avete il comunicato ufficiale ? grazie
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (22 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
Io ho ricevuto solo la cedola...ne deduco che non l'abbiano richiamata.
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
sembra che le depositarie rifiutino i trade fatti negli ultimi 3 gg siccome dicono sia stata richiamata... verificare chi e' nel giro...
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Non se se avevate gia' visto questo. Sono rimasto indietro nel forum.
Research
The Silver Bullet | Too early to step in
Credit | The Silver Bullet
30 Sep 2014
Research
The Silver Bullet | Too early to step in
Credit | The Silver Bullet
30 Sep 2014
Eurozone inflation continues to decline. Today's 0.3% print again puts the Eurozone closer to the trajectory of Japan in the '90s, and will put more pressure on Mario Draghi. On Thursday, the ECB is due to announce details on its programme to buy ABS and covered bonds, bringing back its balance sheet size to the beginning of 2012.
It's not going to be easy: unlike the Fed, the ECB is buying a static pool of assets, as both sovereign and credit market net issuance in the Eurozone are relatively flat. In other words, Fed QE was effective, as the US central bank was helping to create new funding (i.e. fiscal policy was rowing in the same direction) and also because US bond markets are a larger share of credit (70-80%, vs 20% in Europe). In Europe, the ECB needs to revive the ABS market.
There are doubts. Market participants expect the ECB to buy €200bn of ABS and covered bonds over the next year, according to a Reuters poll of Euro money market traders. This is down from €300bn a month highlighting that the market is somehow sceptical on the technical aspects of ABS, and starting to be more aware of the difficulties in reviving securitisations. As we discussed last month, re-starting the ABS market in Europe depends not only on monetary stimulus, but also on levelling the playing field of regulation for risk transfer. Guarantees on mezzanine tranches could also help, but governments have been so far reluctant to help.
So far, Mr Draghi has managed to lower the euro to 1.26/$ without spending one cent. This week, it will be tough for him to surprise markets to the upside, as the more details the ECB will disclose on ABS and covered bond purchases, the more market participants may focus on the technical difficulties in reviving the market. Once again, governments have the ball now, and the core-periphery stimulus-reform negotiation is likely to continue for several months.
We think this isn't yet the time to step into risky assets. Let the high-beta sell-off play out. Stay cautious on the low-end of high yield, contingent capital and corporate hybrids (also given the recent S&P moves on ratings, discussed below). Don't be a hero.
Join us to discuss the ECB and the state of credit markets today at 2pm UK time / 3pm CET / 9am EST: click here to register for the call and click here to view our presentation slides.
There are a few days left to support us in the Institutional Investor survey. You can obtain a form by clicking here, selecting "Research Teams", All-Europe Fixed Income Survey, Request Questionnaire. Please vote for us if you appreciate our research. We appreciate your help.
1. The UK housing boom is slowing, and a further slowdown could come as the FCA and FPC introduce more prudential measures
2. S&P to review senior ratings of UK, German and Austrian banks and revises ratings on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments: stay long periphery senior and semi-core/Spain LT2, cautious on cocos
3. Spanish Constitutional Court rejects Catalan independence referendum: Spain faces headline political risks
4. Troika starts fifth review of Greece today; reforms so far have helped Greece to recover faster than expected
1. The UK housing boom is slowing: prices and mortgage approvals have fallen recently. A further slowdown could come as the FCA tightens mortgage rules and the FPC potentially introduces more macro-prudential measures. UK house prices fell -0.2% MoM in September, according to Nationwide data. Yesterday's BoE data also shows that mortgage approvals fell in August to 64.2k from 66.6k in July. UK mortgage approvals have largely been on a downward trend this year, after reaching its 6-year peak in December 2013.
Tighter mortgage rules may cool the housing market further. Macro-pru measures announced earlier could have partly contributed to the slowdown. The Bank of England introduced tighter mortgage affordability tests and set a limit on lending mortgages more than 4.5x the borrower's income in its June Financial Stability Report. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) suggested last week that it would tighten rules on second mortgages by subjecting them to the same requirements as first mortgages, including the BoE's new affordability tests, from 21 March 2016. The FCA also proposed to introduce some new requirements on mortgage lenders, including more disclosure, a ban on the tying of products and a seven-day reflection period.
Furthermore, the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) will publish on Thursday two documents related to the housing market in addition to its September statement. These include its response to Osborne's request at the Mansion House Speech for advice on new powers to guard against risks in the housing market, and its annual review of the Help-to-Buy scheme. The FPC could propose more macro-pru measures in its response to the Chancellor. Coupled with earlier steps, these new measures could add a further brake on the UK housing market.
Indebted UK consumers remain vulnerable to risks in the housing market. We think more prudential measures on mortgages are positive for long-term financial stability. However, it is often difficult to find the right balance in implementing macro-pru measures, as the experiences in Sweden and Norway have shown. UK household debt remains high at around 130% of income, despite starting to fall since the crisis, while wages have stagnated. This makes households vulnerable to rising mortgage costs if and when rates start to go up and house prices start to correct. We estimate that if Bank Rate goes to 2%, it would reduce the average household's disposable income after mortgage costs by 10%, potentially pushing them to cut back discretionary spending. We have a trade to short UK retailers Tesco, M&S and Morrisons vs non-retailers BT, BAT and Imperial Tobacco. The trade is up 3.8% since inception in June, and we think it has further to run as rates go up and retailers get squeezed (The Revolver | The Exit Shock, 13 June 2014).
2. S&P says it will review senior ratings of UK, German and Austrian banks and revises ratings on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments. The new EU Bank Resolution & Recovery Directive (BRRD) gives authorities new powers to bail-in the debt of failing banks. The new rules require bail-in of equity and sub debt up to 8% of liabilities from 1 January 2015 for banks seeking state support. Bail-in of senior debt will also be required from 1 January 2016. When the rules were announced, S&P revised its outlooks on a number of European banks to negative, on the expectation that government support for these banks would diminish in future.
Since then, the UK, Germany and Austria have said they will fast-track the new bail-in rules, fully bringing in senior and sub bail-in from 1 January 2015. Consequently, S&P yesterday said it would review the ratings of the major UK, German and Austrian banks listed below when their respective governments implement the proposed legislation, likely in late 2014.
S&P sees three potential outcomes:
I. The "predictability of government support will… materially and immediately reduce" when bail-in rules take effect. S&P would place the issuer and senior unsecured ratings on CreditWatch negative, and then reduce or remove the government support notches when the rules take effect from 1 January 2015.
II. Government support becomes less predictable, but with important issues still unresolved. S&P would likely still place the ratings on CreditWatch negative, but may review beyond 1 January 2015.
III. Government support becomes less predictable, but issues remain unresolved until late 2015. S&P may then keep ratings and outlooks unchanged.
For banks in countries that bring in senior bail-in from 1 January 2016, S&P currently expects to take ratings actions "before late 2015 at the earliest."
S&P's review follows a similar move by Moody's, which highlighted the risks to Austrian bank senior and sub creditors in particular. We remain underweight Austrian bank senior, also because of their EM exposure (The Revolver | Austrian banks: a dangerous waltz with emerging markets, 24 February 2014).
We think the new EU rules are positive for financial stability, as they will help to limit the costs to taxpayers of a future banking crisis, even if the size of the banks (3x GDP) and limited scope of bail-in (8% of liabilities) mean taxpayers are not completely protected (The Revolver | European banks: Still too big to fail, 23 January 2014).
S&P also took ratings actions on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments issued by European banks, following the change in its hybrid capital ratings methodology brought on by the BRRD. It downgraded 68% of the reviewed instruments by one notch, 20% by two notches and affirmed the ratings of the other 12% (Flash on Financials | S&P on Bail-in and Sub Debt, 30 September 2014).
Stay long periphery senior and semi-core/Spain LT2 despite downgrade risks, cautious on cocos. We remain long the senior debt of Spanish and Italian banks and LT2 of semi-core and Spanish banks, as our stress test simulation suggests they should perform well in the ECB tests. We remain cautious on Portuguese and mid-tier German and Italian banks and on cocos (The Revolver | H2 Outlook, 22 May 2014).
3. Spanish Constitutional Court rejects the Catalan independence referendum, uncertainty remains over what happens next: Spain faces headline political risks. Yesterday, the Spanish Constitutional Court rejected Catalonia's planned independence referendum (Reuters). Catalan President Artur Mas was disappointed over the speedy action of the Court but did not say what actions he would take next. However, Mas has threatened early elections as a de-facto poll on independence. Oriol Junqueras, the leader of the Republican Catalan Left (ERC), which supports Mas's governing party CiU in the Catalan parliament, had previously called for Catalans to undertake a campaign of civil disobedience, "like Martin Luther King did", if the 9 November referendum is suspended (El Pais). However, members of CiU do not support Mr Junqueras' aggressive stance. A recent poll showed that 45% of Catalans favour suspending the referendum if it is declared illegal while 25% are willing to go ahead with the referendum regardless (The Local).
Fitch has assigned a negative outlook on Catalonia's BBB- rating after the rejection of the independence referendum, because of the "tensions" between the regional and central governments. According to Fitch, Catalonia would still require more financing from the Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA) in 2015, on account of its high borrowing costs – 10-year Catalan yields are currently almost 2pp more than Spanish yields. Fitch also said that given the political uncertainty, international investors are unlikely to buy regional government debt at present, making it harder and more expensive for Catalonia to borrow from markets.
Currently there is uncertainty over what happens next but the rhetoric is likely to get louder on both sides, in Madrid and in Barcelona. Hence as we have been saying, headline risks remain going forward (The Silver Bullet | Outflow alert, 29 September 2014). Our rates strategists also think these political risks could hurt Spanish government bonds relative to Italian debt (European Rates | Hostage to Catalonia?, 11 September 2014).
4. Troika will start its fifth review on Greece today; structural reforms so far have helped Greece to recover faster than expected. The troika will conduct its fifth review on reforms made by Greece so far (Ekathimerini). The troika will inspect the proposed draft budget for 2015 as well as the execution of the 2014 budget. The finance minister expects the primary surplus for 2015 to be 2.3%-2.5% of GDP while the troika expects only 2% vs the 3% target set earlier (Ekathimerini). Greek PM Antonis Samaras recently said that the country would not require a third bail-out package but he remains committed to reforms. He also called for more flexibility in key reforms in the labour and insurance sectors.
More reforms in the pipeline. PM Samaras plans to introduce constitutional reforms after the troika review (Ekathimerini). He would focus on two major constitutional changes – the election of the Greek President by voters rather than Parliament and some changes to the electoral system.
The government is also planning to introduce a two-year plan to tackle bad debts. The payment of debts would be done in numerous tranches depending on a case-by-case basis. If a firm defaults on a particular tranche, it will not be allowed to continue this program and instead faces interest payments and penalties as before (Ekathimerini). According to Development Ministry officials, this clean-up will not affect the capital adequacy ratios of banks but would rather benefit them from future tax exemptions.
Recent reforms are positive and will benefit the economy. Greece has implemented a lot of reforms in key areas like public administration, the judicial system, product markets and the banking sector. Last week, the Greek Finance Ministry submitted a new DTA conversion law to parliament which if passed would boost banks' capital ratios ahead of the ECB stress test. All these progress had led Greece to successfully tap the capital markets this year with new issues of 3-year and 5-year bonds, and a 7-year bond in the pipeline. The country's credit rating was upgraded to B from B- by S&P in September. However, more reforms need to be implemented as the country's GDP is still contracting and unemployment remains high. We remain overweight the senior debt of Piraeus Bank.
Today:
Data: China HSBC Manufacturing PMI; Australia Private sector credit; New Zealand Business confidence; UK GDP, Current account, House price, GfK consumer confidence; Finland Trade balance; Germany Retail sales, Unemployment rate; France Consumer spending; Denmark GDP, Unemployment rate; Euro-zone Unemployment rate, CPI; Italy CPI, PPI, Unemployment rate; Spain Budget balance; US CaseShiller home price index, PMI Chicago, Consumer confidence index; Japan Jobless rate, Retail sales, Industrial production, Housing starts.
Earnings: Walgreen Co, Wolseley PLC.
Events/Speeches: Lautenschlaeger, Nowotny speak (08:00); Bank of Portugal Vice Governor speaks (09:15); Norges Bank's Olsen speaks (10:10); Portugal Reports 2Q GDP by Institutional Sector (11:00); ECB's Makuch holds press conference (12:00); Austria's Hahn at EU Parliament (12:30); Istat (Italy) releases updated economic forecasts (16:00); Finnish Premier Stubb meets Danish Premier; Mario Monti, Thorning-Schmidt, Stubb Speak; Fed's Powell speaks (15:45).
Recent research:
The Revolver | The credit liquidity trap 2, 26 September 2014
The Revolver | ABS: A Better Solution for Europe, 1 September 2014
The Revolver | The credit liquidity trap, 23 July 2014
The Revolver | Coconomics: Pricing contingent capital risks, 3 July 2014
The Revolver | The Exit Shock, 13 June 2014
Recent articles, conferences and videos:
Bloomberg TV: RBS's Alberto Gallo Favors Investment-Grade Bonds
AFME Italian Banking conference (click here to see our presentation)
Debtwire Germany Forum
Bloomberg TV: Juncker Needs to Supply European Stimulus, Reforms
Wall Street Journal: A QE Boost for Business Lending
FT: Unwary yield hunters risk liquidity trap
It's not going to be easy: unlike the Fed, the ECB is buying a static pool of assets, as both sovereign and credit market net issuance in the Eurozone are relatively flat. In other words, Fed QE was effective, as the US central bank was helping to create new funding (i.e. fiscal policy was rowing in the same direction) and also because US bond markets are a larger share of credit (70-80%, vs 20% in Europe). In Europe, the ECB needs to revive the ABS market.
There are doubts. Market participants expect the ECB to buy €200bn of ABS and covered bonds over the next year, according to a Reuters poll of Euro money market traders. This is down from €300bn a month highlighting that the market is somehow sceptical on the technical aspects of ABS, and starting to be more aware of the difficulties in reviving securitisations. As we discussed last month, re-starting the ABS market in Europe depends not only on monetary stimulus, but also on levelling the playing field of regulation for risk transfer. Guarantees on mezzanine tranches could also help, but governments have been so far reluctant to help.
So far, Mr Draghi has managed to lower the euro to 1.26/$ without spending one cent. This week, it will be tough for him to surprise markets to the upside, as the more details the ECB will disclose on ABS and covered bond purchases, the more market participants may focus on the technical difficulties in reviving the market. Once again, governments have the ball now, and the core-periphery stimulus-reform negotiation is likely to continue for several months.
We think this isn't yet the time to step into risky assets. Let the high-beta sell-off play out. Stay cautious on the low-end of high yield, contingent capital and corporate hybrids (also given the recent S&P moves on ratings, discussed below). Don't be a hero.
Join us to discuss the ECB and the state of credit markets today at 2pm UK time / 3pm CET / 9am EST: click here to register for the call and click here to view our presentation slides.
There are a few days left to support us in the Institutional Investor survey. You can obtain a form by clicking here, selecting "Research Teams", All-Europe Fixed Income Survey, Request Questionnaire. Please vote for us if you appreciate our research. We appreciate your help.
1. The UK housing boom is slowing, and a further slowdown could come as the FCA and FPC introduce more prudential measures
2. S&P to review senior ratings of UK, German and Austrian banks and revises ratings on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments: stay long periphery senior and semi-core/Spain LT2, cautious on cocos
3. Spanish Constitutional Court rejects Catalan independence referendum: Spain faces headline political risks
4. Troika starts fifth review of Greece today; reforms so far have helped Greece to recover faster than expected
1. The UK housing boom is slowing: prices and mortgage approvals have fallen recently. A further slowdown could come as the FCA tightens mortgage rules and the FPC potentially introduces more macro-prudential measures. UK house prices fell -0.2% MoM in September, according to Nationwide data. Yesterday's BoE data also shows that mortgage approvals fell in August to 64.2k from 66.6k in July. UK mortgage approvals have largely been on a downward trend this year, after reaching its 6-year peak in December 2013.
Tighter mortgage rules may cool the housing market further. Macro-pru measures announced earlier could have partly contributed to the slowdown. The Bank of England introduced tighter mortgage affordability tests and set a limit on lending mortgages more than 4.5x the borrower's income in its June Financial Stability Report. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) suggested last week that it would tighten rules on second mortgages by subjecting them to the same requirements as first mortgages, including the BoE's new affordability tests, from 21 March 2016. The FCA also proposed to introduce some new requirements on mortgage lenders, including more disclosure, a ban on the tying of products and a seven-day reflection period.
Furthermore, the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) will publish on Thursday two documents related to the housing market in addition to its September statement. These include its response to Osborne's request at the Mansion House Speech for advice on new powers to guard against risks in the housing market, and its annual review of the Help-to-Buy scheme. The FPC could propose more macro-pru measures in its response to the Chancellor. Coupled with earlier steps, these new measures could add a further brake on the UK housing market.
Indebted UK consumers remain vulnerable to risks in the housing market. We think more prudential measures on mortgages are positive for long-term financial stability. However, it is often difficult to find the right balance in implementing macro-pru measures, as the experiences in Sweden and Norway have shown. UK household debt remains high at around 130% of income, despite starting to fall since the crisis, while wages have stagnated. This makes households vulnerable to rising mortgage costs if and when rates start to go up and house prices start to correct. We estimate that if Bank Rate goes to 2%, it would reduce the average household's disposable income after mortgage costs by 10%, potentially pushing them to cut back discretionary spending. We have a trade to short UK retailers Tesco, M&S and Morrisons vs non-retailers BT, BAT and Imperial Tobacco. The trade is up 3.8% since inception in June, and we think it has further to run as rates go up and retailers get squeezed (The Revolver | The Exit Shock, 13 June 2014).
2. S&P says it will review senior ratings of UK, German and Austrian banks and revises ratings on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments. The new EU Bank Resolution & Recovery Directive (BRRD) gives authorities new powers to bail-in the debt of failing banks. The new rules require bail-in of equity and sub debt up to 8% of liabilities from 1 January 2015 for banks seeking state support. Bail-in of senior debt will also be required from 1 January 2016. When the rules were announced, S&P revised its outlooks on a number of European banks to negative, on the expectation that government support for these banks would diminish in future.
Since then, the UK, Germany and Austria have said they will fast-track the new bail-in rules, fully bringing in senior and sub bail-in from 1 January 2015. Consequently, S&P yesterday said it would review the ratings of the major UK, German and Austrian banks listed below when their respective governments implement the proposed legislation, likely in late 2014.
S&P sees three potential outcomes:
I. The "predictability of government support will… materially and immediately reduce" when bail-in rules take effect. S&P would place the issuer and senior unsecured ratings on CreditWatch negative, and then reduce or remove the government support notches when the rules take effect from 1 January 2015.
II. Government support becomes less predictable, but with important issues still unresolved. S&P would likely still place the ratings on CreditWatch negative, but may review beyond 1 January 2015.
III. Government support becomes less predictable, but issues remain unresolved until late 2015. S&P may then keep ratings and outlooks unchanged.
For banks in countries that bring in senior bail-in from 1 January 2016, S&P currently expects to take ratings actions "before late 2015 at the earliest."
S&P's review follows a similar move by Moody's, which highlighted the risks to Austrian bank senior and sub creditors in particular. We remain underweight Austrian bank senior, also because of their EM exposure (The Revolver | Austrian banks: a dangerous waltz with emerging markets, 24 February 2014).
We think the new EU rules are positive for financial stability, as they will help to limit the costs to taxpayers of a future banking crisis, even if the size of the banks (3x GDP) and limited scope of bail-in (8% of liabilities) mean taxpayers are not completely protected (The Revolver | European banks: Still too big to fail, 23 January 2014).
S&P also took ratings actions on 1,200 hybrid capital instruments issued by European banks, following the change in its hybrid capital ratings methodology brought on by the BRRD. It downgraded 68% of the reviewed instruments by one notch, 20% by two notches and affirmed the ratings of the other 12% (Flash on Financials | S&P on Bail-in and Sub Debt, 30 September 2014).
Stay long periphery senior and semi-core/Spain LT2 despite downgrade risks, cautious on cocos. We remain long the senior debt of Spanish and Italian banks and LT2 of semi-core and Spanish banks, as our stress test simulation suggests they should perform well in the ECB tests. We remain cautious on Portuguese and mid-tier German and Italian banks and on cocos (The Revolver | H2 Outlook, 22 May 2014).
3. Spanish Constitutional Court rejects the Catalan independence referendum, uncertainty remains over what happens next: Spain faces headline political risks. Yesterday, the Spanish Constitutional Court rejected Catalonia's planned independence referendum (Reuters). Catalan President Artur Mas was disappointed over the speedy action of the Court but did not say what actions he would take next. However, Mas has threatened early elections as a de-facto poll on independence. Oriol Junqueras, the leader of the Republican Catalan Left (ERC), which supports Mas's governing party CiU in the Catalan parliament, had previously called for Catalans to undertake a campaign of civil disobedience, "like Martin Luther King did", if the 9 November referendum is suspended (El Pais). However, members of CiU do not support Mr Junqueras' aggressive stance. A recent poll showed that 45% of Catalans favour suspending the referendum if it is declared illegal while 25% are willing to go ahead with the referendum regardless (The Local).
Fitch has assigned a negative outlook on Catalonia's BBB- rating after the rejection of the independence referendum, because of the "tensions" between the regional and central governments. According to Fitch, Catalonia would still require more financing from the Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA) in 2015, on account of its high borrowing costs – 10-year Catalan yields are currently almost 2pp more than Spanish yields. Fitch also said that given the political uncertainty, international investors are unlikely to buy regional government debt at present, making it harder and more expensive for Catalonia to borrow from markets.
Currently there is uncertainty over what happens next but the rhetoric is likely to get louder on both sides, in Madrid and in Barcelona. Hence as we have been saying, headline risks remain going forward (The Silver Bullet | Outflow alert, 29 September 2014). Our rates strategists also think these political risks could hurt Spanish government bonds relative to Italian debt (European Rates | Hostage to Catalonia?, 11 September 2014).
4. Troika will start its fifth review on Greece today; structural reforms so far have helped Greece to recover faster than expected. The troika will conduct its fifth review on reforms made by Greece so far (Ekathimerini). The troika will inspect the proposed draft budget for 2015 as well as the execution of the 2014 budget. The finance minister expects the primary surplus for 2015 to be 2.3%-2.5% of GDP while the troika expects only 2% vs the 3% target set earlier (Ekathimerini). Greek PM Antonis Samaras recently said that the country would not require a third bail-out package but he remains committed to reforms. He also called for more flexibility in key reforms in the labour and insurance sectors.
More reforms in the pipeline. PM Samaras plans to introduce constitutional reforms after the troika review (Ekathimerini). He would focus on two major constitutional changes – the election of the Greek President by voters rather than Parliament and some changes to the electoral system.
The government is also planning to introduce a two-year plan to tackle bad debts. The payment of debts would be done in numerous tranches depending on a case-by-case basis. If a firm defaults on a particular tranche, it will not be allowed to continue this program and instead faces interest payments and penalties as before (Ekathimerini). According to Development Ministry officials, this clean-up will not affect the capital adequacy ratios of banks but would rather benefit them from future tax exemptions.
Recent reforms are positive and will benefit the economy. Greece has implemented a lot of reforms in key areas like public administration, the judicial system, product markets and the banking sector. Last week, the Greek Finance Ministry submitted a new DTA conversion law to parliament which if passed would boost banks' capital ratios ahead of the ECB stress test. All these progress had led Greece to successfully tap the capital markets this year with new issues of 3-year and 5-year bonds, and a 7-year bond in the pipeline. The country's credit rating was upgraded to B from B- by S&P in September. However, more reforms need to be implemented as the country's GDP is still contracting and unemployment remains high. We remain overweight the senior debt of Piraeus Bank.
Today:
Data: China HSBC Manufacturing PMI; Australia Private sector credit; New Zealand Business confidence; UK GDP, Current account, House price, GfK consumer confidence; Finland Trade balance; Germany Retail sales, Unemployment rate; France Consumer spending; Denmark GDP, Unemployment rate; Euro-zone Unemployment rate, CPI; Italy CPI, PPI, Unemployment rate; Spain Budget balance; US CaseShiller home price index, PMI Chicago, Consumer confidence index; Japan Jobless rate, Retail sales, Industrial production, Housing starts.
Earnings: Walgreen Co, Wolseley PLC.
Events/Speeches: Lautenschlaeger, Nowotny speak (08:00); Bank of Portugal Vice Governor speaks (09:15); Norges Bank's Olsen speaks (10:10); Portugal Reports 2Q GDP by Institutional Sector (11:00); ECB's Makuch holds press conference (12:00); Austria's Hahn at EU Parliament (12:30); Istat (Italy) releases updated economic forecasts (16:00); Finnish Premier Stubb meets Danish Premier; Mario Monti, Thorning-Schmidt, Stubb Speak; Fed's Powell speaks (15:45).
Recent research:
The Revolver | The credit liquidity trap 2, 26 September 2014
The Revolver | ABS: A Better Solution for Europe, 1 September 2014
The Revolver | The credit liquidity trap, 23 July 2014
The Revolver | Coconomics: Pricing contingent capital risks, 3 July 2014
The Revolver | The Exit Shock, 13 June 2014
Recent articles, conferences and videos:
Bloomberg TV: RBS's Alberto Gallo Favors Investment-Grade Bonds
AFME Italian Banking conference (click here to see our presentation)
Debtwire Germany Forum
Bloomberg TV: Juncker Needs to Supply European Stimulus, Reforms
Wall Street Journal: A QE Boost for Business Lending
FT: Unwary yield hunters risk liquidity trap
Contacts
Alberto Gallo
+44 20 70855736
[email protected]
Lee Tyrrell-Hendry
+44 207 085 9462
[email protected]
Tao Pan
+44 2076783122
[email protected]
Alberto Gallo
+44 20 70855736
[email protected]
Lee Tyrrell-Hendry
+44 207 085 9462
[email protected]
Tao Pan
+44 2076783122
[email protected]
negusneg
New Member
Confermo, ho appena ricevuto comunicazione che "l'emittente il titolo in oggetto il 30.09.2014 ha annunciato il rimborso anticipato del capitale a 100, più gli interessi maturati e non corrisposti, per valuta 30.09.14".
Il titolo è non step, paga un tasso pari al T-bond 10a + 0,30% con max 9%, era in post call dal 2009.
Può essere interessante rispolverare uno studio di JPM per capire bene la logica dell'operazione...
Ultima modifica:
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
io ho scritto a BPCE per avere conferma al 100%...ho anche chiamato ma non risponde nessuno..su bbg non c'e' nulla
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Negus guarda AXA floater XS0184718764 ..stessa struttura
negusneg
New Member
Negus guarda AXA floater XS0184718764 ..stessa struttura
La conosco
Peccato solo che l'assicurativo segua altre logiche.
Rottweiler
Forumer storico
Confermo, ho appena ricevuto comunicazione che "l'emittente il titolo in oggetto il 30.09.2014 ha annunciato il rimborso anticipato del capitale a 100, più gli interessi maturati e non corrisposti, per valuta 30.09.14".
Il titolo è non step, paga un tasso pari al T-bond 10a + 0,30% con max 9%, era in post call dal 2009.
Può essere interessante rispolverare uno studio di JPM per capire bene la logica dell'operazione...
Ciao Negus,
ecco: io la logica in questa call proprio non riesco a trovarla...
Se provi a calcolare l'ammontare di vecchie T1 ancora in circolazione, le confronti con il cap imposto da Basilea e cerchi una motivazione economica e/o reputazionale, riesci a dare un senso a questa call, rispetto a quella di altri vecchi T1?
Perchè richiamare oggi un titolo che costa poco e che può contribuire a lungo al T1?
Ammetto di non aver letto il prospetto, e magari la risposta può venire da una sua analisi accurata...
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Comunque finchè non ho il comunicato ufficiale di bpce non ci credo.. Oggi le compravi a 90... Eseguite.. Quindi mi puzza di errore delle depositarie..