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Forumer storico
14 May 2015 Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI AV)
Stronger Russia likely to support €30mn profits in
1Q15; still expect losses in 2H; 1Q B3FL ~10%
Overweight
Price: €15.28
13 May 2015
Price Target: €18.00
PT End Date: 31 Dec 2016
We believe the current valuations (0.65x P/NAV 16E) are pricing in a lot
of negative risks. RBI has proposed a restructuring plan, which, if
successfully implemented, would take capital levels towards 12% without
the need for equity issuance. Following the major clean-up in 4Q14, with
the reported loss of €718mn (with 320bps CoR), we expect 1Q15 profit of
~€30mn, in absence of another major clean-up/restructuring (CoR at
170bps). However, from 2Q15E onwards we see higher CoR/restructuring
charges, taking the FY15 JPMe loss to €223mn. On the capital front, we
forecast B3FL CET1 to reach ~10% in 1Q15, in the absence of disposals and
RUB strengthening pushing RWAs upwards vs. FY14. Regional performance
expectations: CEE: €15mn profits, driven by Czech Republic and Slovakia,
offset by the still loss making Hungary; SEE: €88mn profits, mostly coming
from Romania; Russia: €45mn profits; Ukraine and Belarus: loss of €75mn.
Stronger Russia likely to support €30mn profits in
1Q15; still expect losses in 2H; 1Q B3FL ~10%
Overweight
Price: €15.28
13 May 2015
Price Target: €18.00
PT End Date: 31 Dec 2016
We believe the current valuations (0.65x P/NAV 16E) are pricing in a lot
of negative risks. RBI has proposed a restructuring plan, which, if
successfully implemented, would take capital levels towards 12% without
the need for equity issuance. Following the major clean-up in 4Q14, with
the reported loss of €718mn (with 320bps CoR), we expect 1Q15 profit of
~€30mn, in absence of another major clean-up/restructuring (CoR at
170bps). However, from 2Q15E onwards we see higher CoR/restructuring
charges, taking the FY15 JPMe loss to €223mn. On the capital front, we
forecast B3FL CET1 to reach ~10% in 1Q15, in the absence of disposals and
RUB strengthening pushing RWAs upwards vs. FY14. Regional performance
expectations: CEE: €15mn profits, driven by Czech Republic and Slovakia,
offset by the still loss making Hungary; SEE: €88mn profits, mostly coming
from Romania; Russia: €45mn profits; Ukraine and Belarus: loss of €75mn.
