Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
sono pochi pezzi ma su euronext a 91 c' e' ask
Deutsche Bank’s €6 Billion Loss Highlights Reengineering Challenges
Last Wednesday, Deutsche Bank AG (A3 positive/A3 negative, baa34
) announced an estimated third-quarter
pre-tax loss of €6.0 billion, driven by goodwill and intangible impairments of €5.8 billion, an impairment on
its investment in Hua Xia Bank of €600 million and litigation provisions of €1.2 billion. Management will
also recommend reducing or eliminating its dividend for 2015.
Although the large loss holds no rating implications, it is credit negative for Deutsche Bank bondholders and
highlights the significant challenges related to the bank’s ongoing reengineering. The size of the goodwill
write-downs, which occurred in the Corporate Banking & Securities and Private & Business Client divisions,
indicates how much the profit potential of each of those businesses has deteriorated since the bank
acquired them. But, they are also a logical consequence of the ongoing review of Deutsche Bank’s operating
footprint. We expect Deutsche Bank to face additional litigation, restructuring and regulatory costs that will
reduce profits in the coming quarters.
The credit-negative effect of the loss is tempered by several factors. First, the goodwill impairments are
non-cash. Second, the bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio should remain at approximately 11% (compared
with 11.4% at second-quarter 2015). Third, a dividend cut would preserve capital. Fourth, management
indicated that the bank should remain profitable through the first three quarters of 2015 (excluding the
effect of the goodwill and intangible impairments and absent further restructuring charges), generating pretax
income of €2.5 billion.
These charges, together with Deutsche Bank’s recent decision to close its Russian Corporate Banking and
Securities platform and the classification of Hua Xia as a non-strategic asset, are the first visible steps of the
execution of the bank’s new strategic plan. If the plan reaches its targets, it would benefit bondholders.
Today, however, the potential benefits to creditors of a simpler and more stable business mix, lower
leverage and more conservative return on equity targets are largely offset by the considerable execution
risks of the plan as management attempts to strengthen profitability and continues to rebalance the
earnings mix over the next three to five years. This is a developing credit story, and both revisions to the
plan and the effectiveness of strategic execution will largely drive changes in Deutsche
Bank’s creditworthiness.
Last Wednesday, Deutsche Bank AG (A3 positive/A3 negative, baa34
) announced an estimated third-quarter
pre-tax loss of €6.0 billion, driven by goodwill and intangible impairments of €5.8 billion, an impairment on
its investment in Hua Xia Bank of €600 million and litigation provisions of €1.2 billion. Management will
also recommend reducing or eliminating its dividend for 2015.
Although the large loss holds no rating implications, it is credit negative for Deutsche Bank bondholders and
highlights the significant challenges related to the bank’s ongoing reengineering. The size of the goodwill
write-downs, which occurred in the Corporate Banking & Securities and Private & Business Client divisions,
indicates how much the profit potential of each of those businesses has deteriorated since the bank
acquired them. But, they are also a logical consequence of the ongoing review of Deutsche Bank’s operating
footprint. We expect Deutsche Bank to face additional litigation, restructuring and regulatory costs that will
reduce profits in the coming quarters.
The credit-negative effect of the loss is tempered by several factors. First, the goodwill impairments are
non-cash. Second, the bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio should remain at approximately 11% (compared
with 11.4% at second-quarter 2015). Third, a dividend cut would preserve capital. Fourth, management
indicated that the bank should remain profitable through the first three quarters of 2015 (excluding the
effect of the goodwill and intangible impairments and absent further restructuring charges), generating pretax
income of €2.5 billion.
These charges, together with Deutsche Bank’s recent decision to close its Russian Corporate Banking and
Securities platform and the classification of Hua Xia as a non-strategic asset, are the first visible steps of the
execution of the bank’s new strategic plan. If the plan reaches its targets, it would benefit bondholders.
Today, however, the potential benefits to creditors of a simpler and more stable business mix, lower
leverage and more conservative return on equity targets are largely offset by the considerable execution
risks of the plan as management attempts to strengthen profitability and continues to rebalance the
earnings mix over the next three to five years. This is a developing credit story, and both revisions to the
plan and the effectiveness of strategic execution will largely drive changes in Deutsche
Bank’s creditworthiness.
Austria’s Proposed Amendments to Its Resolution Act Are Credit Positive for
Grandfathered Debtholders
Last Wednesday, the Austrian Ministry of Finance proposed amendments to the Federal Banking
Restructuring and Resolution Act (BaSAG), including a clarification of the rights of holders of bailed-in debt
that benefit from third-party guarantees or other forms of third-party support. Based on the legislative
proposal, recourse to additional obligors is unaffected by a bail-in of any resolved entity’s debt. The proposal
is credit positive, particularly for bank bondholders that benefit from legacy deficiency guarantees provided
by Austrian provinces, because it eliminates the considerable legal uncertainty surrounding the
enforceability of such guarantees under BaSAG.
Grandfathered deficiency-guaranteed debt is principally subject to bail-in and is treated pari passu with all
other unsecured debt of equal seniority under the European Union’s Recovery and Resolution Directive
(BRRD) and BaSAG. But until now, the recourse to deficiency guarantees outside of bank insolvency was
unclear in Austria and exposed creditors to the loss of such guarantees in burden-sharing.
The cancellation of debt instruments is a feasible option under BRRD and BaSAG. Therefore, investors in
deficiency-guaranteed bonds in Austria risk losing the protection of those guarantees because of the
accessory nature of deficiency guarantees. According to the Austrian civil law, the accessory principle
requires the actual existence of a claim for a deficiency guarantee to be valid and enforceable.5 The
proposed law aims to ensure that such recourse remains unaffected, independent of the bail-in
tools applied.
Austria and Germany widely issued deficiency-guaranteed debt before the European Union’s competition
law banned such state-guaranteed bonds. With the vast majority of Austrian grandfathered debt expiring by
2017, the proposed law improves creditors’ rights until those debts mature. We rate about €25 billion of
grandfathered debt outstanding (see exhibit).
Austria’s proposal appears comparable to Germany’s BRRD implementation law, which explicitly clarifies
that the recourse to the guarantors under these grandfathered deficiency structures is entirely unaffected by bail-in.6 However, the Austrian draft law, which we expect will be approved after a commentary period that
ends 26 October, is less strict than Germany’s version, which explicitly safeguards guarantors’ requirement
to honour deficiency guarantees. The Austrian proposal simply emphasizes that the legal relationship
between the creditor and guarantor should not be negatively affected by the application of bail-in tools
because not honouring the guarantor’s liability would not be in line with European Union law under
direction 2014/59/EU. As such, the new Austrian proposal confirms a 28 July verdict from the Austrian
Constitutional Court that declared the cancellation of deficiency guarantees as unconstitutional. We believe
that the court’s decision generally results in a positive value for the beneficiaries of such
deficiency guarantees.
Grandfathered Debtholders
Last Wednesday, the Austrian Ministry of Finance proposed amendments to the Federal Banking
Restructuring and Resolution Act (BaSAG), including a clarification of the rights of holders of bailed-in debt
that benefit from third-party guarantees or other forms of third-party support. Based on the legislative
proposal, recourse to additional obligors is unaffected by a bail-in of any resolved entity’s debt. The proposal
is credit positive, particularly for bank bondholders that benefit from legacy deficiency guarantees provided
by Austrian provinces, because it eliminates the considerable legal uncertainty surrounding the
enforceability of such guarantees under BaSAG.
Grandfathered deficiency-guaranteed debt is principally subject to bail-in and is treated pari passu with all
other unsecured debt of equal seniority under the European Union’s Recovery and Resolution Directive
(BRRD) and BaSAG. But until now, the recourse to deficiency guarantees outside of bank insolvency was
unclear in Austria and exposed creditors to the loss of such guarantees in burden-sharing.
The cancellation of debt instruments is a feasible option under BRRD and BaSAG. Therefore, investors in
deficiency-guaranteed bonds in Austria risk losing the protection of those guarantees because of the
accessory nature of deficiency guarantees. According to the Austrian civil law, the accessory principle
requires the actual existence of a claim for a deficiency guarantee to be valid and enforceable.5 The
proposed law aims to ensure that such recourse remains unaffected, independent of the bail-in
tools applied.
Austria and Germany widely issued deficiency-guaranteed debt before the European Union’s competition
law banned such state-guaranteed bonds. With the vast majority of Austrian grandfathered debt expiring by
2017, the proposed law improves creditors’ rights until those debts mature. We rate about €25 billion of
grandfathered debt outstanding (see exhibit).
Austria’s proposal appears comparable to Germany’s BRRD implementation law, which explicitly clarifies
that the recourse to the guarantors under these grandfathered deficiency structures is entirely unaffected by bail-in.6 However, the Austrian draft law, which we expect will be approved after a commentary period that
ends 26 October, is less strict than Germany’s version, which explicitly safeguards guarantors’ requirement
to honour deficiency guarantees. The Austrian proposal simply emphasizes that the legal relationship
between the creditor and guarantor should not be negatively affected by the application of bail-in tools
because not honouring the guarantor’s liability would not be in line with European Union law under
direction 2014/59/EU. As such, the new Austrian proposal confirms a 28 July verdict from the Austrian
Constitutional Court that declared the cancellation of deficiency guarantees as unconstitutional. We believe
that the court’s decision generally results in a positive value for the beneficiaries of such
deficiency guarantees.
vbrm
Forumer attivo
EON, RWE soar as nuclear provision fears subside
Notizia dal FT http://on.ft.com/1hztMYN credo di interesse per chi ha subordinati RWE
Shares in German utility companies are lighting up on Monday as concerns that they had not set aside enough money to cover the costs of decommissioning nuclear power plants fade away.
Both EON and RWE rose by more than 10 per cent at the open of markets on Monday following comments from Germany's economy ministry over the weekend that energy companies had set aside sufficient funds to pay for decommissioning costs, as the country continues its shift towards renewables.
There has been considerable speculation in the German media about the results of a government 'stress test' into nuclear provisions in the past month, with some outlets reporting that there would be a considerable shortfall.
Nuclear power generation is being phased out in Germany by 2022.
But Bloomberg reported on Saturday that Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel had deemed the total €38.3bn of provisions set aside by utility companies, including EON, RWE, Energie Baden- Wuerttemberg, Vattenfall and Stadtwerke Muenchen, "completely reflect the costs".
Germany decided to abandon nuclear power generation in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.
Shares in EON are up 8.24 per cent at €9.90 at publication time, while RWE is 10.6 per cent higher at €13.55.
Harold Hutchinson, an analyst at Investec, urged some caution:
"This is not the end of the German nuclear decommissioning story, in our view. The initial findings [of the report commissioned by the German government] suggest a wide range for the potential liability, ranging from €25bn to €77bn.
Investors need to remember there are further aspects to the nuclear decommissioning argument that have not been captured in the report. Working against the utilities is the possibility that new nuclear decommissioning costs not captured in existing estimates (for example relating to final storage of waste), might still be considered the responsibility of the utilities. Working for the utilities are ongoing legal claims made relating to the potential recovery of nuclear taxes, and for compensation given Germany's decision to accelerate its nuclear phase out."
Notizia dal FT http://on.ft.com/1hztMYN credo di interesse per chi ha subordinati RWE
Shares in German utility companies are lighting up on Monday as concerns that they had not set aside enough money to cover the costs of decommissioning nuclear power plants fade away.
Both EON and RWE rose by more than 10 per cent at the open of markets on Monday following comments from Germany's economy ministry over the weekend that energy companies had set aside sufficient funds to pay for decommissioning costs, as the country continues its shift towards renewables.
There has been considerable speculation in the German media about the results of a government 'stress test' into nuclear provisions in the past month, with some outlets reporting that there would be a considerable shortfall.
Nuclear power generation is being phased out in Germany by 2022.
But Bloomberg reported on Saturday that Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel had deemed the total €38.3bn of provisions set aside by utility companies, including EON, RWE, Energie Baden- Wuerttemberg, Vattenfall and Stadtwerke Muenchen, "completely reflect the costs".
Germany decided to abandon nuclear power generation in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.
Shares in EON are up 8.24 per cent at €9.90 at publication time, while RWE is 10.6 per cent higher at €13.55.
Harold Hutchinson, an analyst at Investec, urged some caution:
"This is not the end of the German nuclear decommissioning story, in our view. The initial findings [of the report commissioned by the German government] suggest a wide range for the potential liability, ranging from €25bn to €77bn.
Investors need to remember there are further aspects to the nuclear decommissioning argument that have not been captured in the report. Working against the utilities is the possibility that new nuclear decommissioning costs not captured in existing estimates (for example relating to final storage of waste), might still be considered the responsibility of the utilities. Working for the utilities are ongoing legal claims made relating to the potential recovery of nuclear taxes, and for compensation given Germany's decision to accelerate its nuclear phase out."
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
Investec
Questa Investec mi ricorda i mitici cioccolatai di Jyske
In pratica stanno dicendo che, sì, in effetti si sono sbagliati nelle loro previsioni...però...in futuro chissà.
Comunque li ringrazio per le loro previsioni funeste che mi hanno permesso di entrare a prezzi scontatissimi
Questa Investec mi ricorda i mitici cioccolatai di Jyske
In pratica stanno dicendo che, sì, in effetti si sono sbagliati nelle loro previsioni...però...in futuro chissà.Comunque li ringrazio per le loro previsioni funeste che mi hanno permesso di entrare a prezzi scontatissimi
Fabrib
Forumer storico
Besi ora è Haitong.
Contributo di Rottweiler dal Forum BES:
Ricciardi: "Sabemos que há vários interessados no Novo Banco"
Ontem 17:57 Cátia Simões
Presidente do ex-BESI espera que a sede do banco de investimento se mantenha em Portugal.
O presidente do Haitong Bank (ex-^BESI), José Maria Ricciardi, admitiu hoje saber da existência de "vários interessados [no Novo Banco]", defendendo que alguns já estiveram na corrida e que deverão voltar a avançar uma proposta pelo "banco bom" do BES.
"Sabem que há vários interessados e alguns tenho a convicção de que vão voltar [a apresentar uma proposta]. Não são só chineses, espero que venham interessados de outras nacionalidades", afirmou o responsável, à margem da assinatura de um protocolo entre o Haitong e a Euronext, que decorreu esta tarde em Lisboa.
O presidente do ex-BESI já tinha dito, em entrevista recente à Reuters, que acreditava que existissem interessados no activo mas não avançou mais detalhes.
Ricciardi afirmou que o Haitong não está interessado porque é um banco de investimento que não se dedica à banca comercial mas lembrou que o ex-BESI agora poderá assessorar potenciais interessados, algo que antes não podia fazer devido à ligação ao GES.
O responsável considerou ainda que os contornos do negócio são mais claros o que poderá atrair mais investidores. "Parece-me que existem mais oportunidades para o sector financeiro e para o país". "Quando não se tem a certeza de algumas variáveis da operação tende-se a jogar mais à defesa", referiu, lembrando que quanto menor for o aumento de capital necessário mais irá para o fundo de resolução.
Ricciardi afirmou ainda que "espero manter a liderança da actividade da Haitong em Portugal", embora tenha referido que se está a trabalhar na internacionalização para Londres e Nova iorque, numa lógica de um banco de investimento que se quer internacionalizar. "Vamos ter um conjunto de ferramentas que nunca tivemos", agora que a Haitong é o dono, lembrou.
Grazie.