Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (8 lettori)

[Joe Silver]

Raiffeisen

uscito per metà dall'equity di Raiffeisen bank e switchato su XS1034950672 a 78.30

Mi sembra una bella presa Non capisco perché quoti (ancora) così basso quando l'analoga 4% in chf è oltre i 90

 

[cris71]

Mi sembra una bella presa Non capisco perché quoti (ancora) così basso quando l'analoga 4% in chf è oltre i 90

Das ist eine gute Frage und sie ist schwer zu beantworten...

Aggiungo una breve nota su Erste , oltre all'opa del 2012 sui T1 a settembre 2014 Erste aveva lanciato una tender su alcuni T2 che non ricordavo, di seguito:

 

[darkog]

Das ist eine gute Frage und sie ist schwer zu beantworten...

Aggiungo una breve nota su Erste , oltre all'opa del 2012 sui T1 a settembre 2014 Erste aveva lanciato una tender su alcuni T2 che non ricordavo, di seguito:

Stai facendo incetta di Morettine austriache eh..
Io sono 3 giorni che cerco di prendere la 5.25% erste a 91. Ma nn mi applica nessuno!!
Ho visto che sei riuscito a prenderla circa a 90.5..
Riproverò settimana prox!!

 

[cris71]

Stai facendo incetta di Morettine austriache eh..
Io sono 3 giorni che cerco di prendere la 5.25% erste a 91. Ma nn mi applica nessuno!!
Ho visto che sei riuscito a prenderla circa a 90.5..
Riproverò settimana prox!!

Ho sia la 152 che la 808 step up , su quest'ultima si concentrano le mie aspettative di una futura call . Anche la 152 comunque ,se Erste ritornerà a pagare le cedole nel 2016, dovrà comunque salire.

 

[amorgos34]

Assicurativin (consiglio lettura anche se difficoltosa)


European Insurance
European regulator (EIOPA) is looking to review
Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) in 2016 - ALERT
European Insurance
Ashik Musaddi, CFA AC
(44-20) 7134-4708
[email protected]
Bloomberg JPMA MUSADDI <GO>
Michael Huttner, CFA
(44-20) 7134-4572
[email protected]
Kunal Zaveri
(44-20) 7134-7055
[email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
See page 3 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
 The European Insurance regulator (EIOPA) issued a press release
suggesting that it will be reviewing the methodology to derive the ultimate
forward rates (UFR) in 2016 but this will remain unchanged until the end of
2016 and the regulator will decide in Sept 2016 on the implementation of
new rules.
 Background – Ultimate forward rate is a method of extrapolating the riskfree
rate after 20 years given the swap curve is fairly illiquid after the 20-
year point and insurers have long-dated liabilities which under Solvency II
have to be discounted at risk-free rate (swap rate) plus volatility adjuster.
Currently, the UFR is anchored at 4.2% at the 60-year point i.e. the risk-free
rate is extrapolated from the real swap rate at the 20-year point (currently at
1.52%) to a 4.2% forward rate at the 60-year point.
 Eiopa has clarified that it won’t be changing any rules before Dec 2016
in order to ensure a smooth transition towards Solvency II, which is
expected to go live on Jan 2016. However, it will be reviewing the
calculation methodology and intends to decide on the outcome of the review
on how and when to implement it in Sept 2016.
 Impact on insurers: It is potentially a negative impact on insurers that have
long-dated life insurance liabilities - such as German, Austria, Sweden,
Netherlands etc - as the benefit from the use of UFR is material at the
moment. For example, ASR in Netherlands suggested that the impact of
UFR on Solvency I for it was around 73ppts, which simplistically could be
around 40-50ppts on Solvency II in our view.
 However, there are lots of uncertainties around that. Such as 1) Timing
is uncertain i.e. when will EIOPA implement it, 2) Level of the new UFR is
uncertain as the regulator will review that in consultation with the industry,
3) impact of that on companies would be uncertain as insurers could
potentially be able to use transitional measures to avoid the impact of lower
UFR, 4) the impact on the reported Solvency II ratio would be uncertain due
to geographical diversification and business lines diversification.
 The key point to note is that if the UFR is removed or changed, the
capital quality of the Dutch insurers would be very high as it will be the
purest form of Solvency II, where the entire balance sheet is marked to
market without any transitional arrangements or matching adjustments or
credit spreads allowed in discount rate. For example, the Germans are using
16 year transitionals, UK life insurers are using matching adjustment and 16
year transitionals. However, it will impact the headline Solvency II ratios for
the Dutch insurers.
 Within the Dutch insurers, we believe the most at risk would be Delta
Lloyd, as it is mainly a Dutch life insurer with a weak starting capital
position. Whereas NN’s starting capital position is very strong (around
200% standard model Solvency II ratio) and thus we believe it will be less
impacted by this on a relative basis. Aegon’s Dutch business would be
impacted, but due to large US exposure the impact on the group may not be
significant. Ageas has mentioned that if it divides the UFR by 2, then the
impact is around 17ppts, which is not material in our view given its strong
Solvency ratio (235% Solvency II standard model for the group).
 For the conglomerates, it will be an impact for names like Allianz, AXA,
Generali and Munich, as although the capital impact on group level may not
be large, capital release from a few geographies may struggle - such as
German life businesses. This may restrict the dividend growth.

 

[amorgos34]

JPM sugli AT1


For the AT1 asset class September stands out as one of the weakest months in terms of spread performance,
with our European AT1 Index trading at a 628bps spread, 80bps wider in September (70bps wider YTD). European Credit - Financials
In this context we are updating our two valuation models and have reviewed AT1 performance across various Axel Finsterbusch, CFA AC
jurisdictions to underscore which bonds offer more value after the recent correction. Spanish AT1 shows strong (44-20) 7134-4711
underperformance given the significant EM exposure of Santander and BBVA. We saw similar weak performance [email protected]
in the AT1 from other banks with material EM exposure (i.e. HSBC and Stanln). However, we don't think the J.P. Morgan Securities plc
relative underperformance of Swedish and UniCredit AT1s is entirely justified. As such, we are recommending
Sweda 5 1/2 $20-P, Shbass 5 1/4 $21-P, Seb 5 3/4 $20-P and Ndass 5 1/2 $19-P and Ucgim 6 3/4 €21-P, which are Roberto Henriques, CFA
trading significantly below par, are at attractive spread/yield and appear cheap according to our valuation models. (44-20) 7134-1733
[email protected]
Additionally, we highlight ongoing pressure from the regulator in terms of harmonization of capital requirement J.P. Morgan Securities plc
calculations. In this context we review Credit Agricole as a case study given the interesting disclosures provided by
management in the latest earnings results. We think that the potential removal of the Danish compromise and/or the
unwind of the switch guarantees will have limited impact in terms of AT1 supply. However, we think management
may have to take corrective/remedial action and this may result in larger absolute CET1 buffers to CBR/trigger, which
would ultimately be positive for valuations over the medium/long term. Having said that, French AT1 bonds show
relative outperformance and we don’t see CredAg AT1 as particularly attractive at current spread levels

 

[marc]

uscito per metà dall'equity di Raiffeisen bank e switchato su XS1034950672 a 78.30

Ciao. È una T2 non capisco la quotazione..cosa
c'è sotto che non sappiamo? Raiffeisen è così tanto messa male?

 

[cris71]

Ciao. È una T2 non capisco la quotazione..cosa
c'è sotto che non sappiamo? Raiffeisen è così tanto messa male?

La quotazione "anomala"e' il motivo per cui sono entrato.Per quanto riguarda la solidità ,il management ha messo a punto un piano di cessioni (tra il 2015 e il 2016) finalizzato a portare i requisiti di capitale a livelli ottimali per il 2017. Io credo e spero ci possano riuscire.

 

[fabriziof]

Mi sembra una bella presa Non capisco perché quoti (ancora) così basso quando l'analoga 4% in chf è oltre i 90

Apparentemente il disalliineamento é dovuto al taglio

 

[rockytamtam]

Apparentemente il disalliineamento é dovuto al taglio

Si , anche la taglio 100 in euro è trattata a 15 punti in meno della pari taglio 1000 .