Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

Delta Lloyd
3Q15 IMS - numbers slightly ahead, but capital
concern remains an overhang, next catalyst 2nd Dec
investor day -


Delta Lloyd reported its 3Q15 IMS but before going into the numbers, we
flag that management is looking to give colour on Solvency II at the
investor day on 2
nd Dec, i.e. the capital overhang is expected to continue
for another month. With respect to the 3Q15 numbers 1) the IGD ratio (i.e.
Solvency I ratio) improved 2ppts QoQ to 181% which is a touch better
than our forecast of 178%; 2) IFRS book value increased sharply by 11%
QoQ to €2.4bn (vs. JPMe €2.1bn); and 3) non life combined ratio came in
at 96.6% which is inline with 1H15 96.8%, but worse than 9M14 95.8%.
Overall we believe that the numbers are slightly better than expected,
however the key issue for Delta Lloyd at the moment is capital on which
we expect and update on 2nd Dec.
 IGD ratio (Solvency I ratio) at 3Q15 came in at 181% versus 1H15
179% and JPMe 178%. This beat is partly due to the benefit from the
sale of DL German Life (1ppts) and the remainder we believe is due to
better than expected market impact. As we transition towards Solvency
II, we note that the IGD ratio will become less relevant. Currently we
expect DL's standard model based Solvency II ratio of around 125-130%
which we believe is below the large Dutch life insurers.
 IFRS book value came in at €2.4bn which is an 11% increase QoQ
and is 15% above our forecast. In our view the beat is driven by mark
to market accounting that creates volatility in the balance sheet.
However, we flag that the IFRS book value increase doesn’t have any
impact on its capital or cash flows which are the key metrics that matter
when it comes to shareholder capital returns.
 Conclusion: We believe that these are inline to slightly better than
expected set of results, however the key concern on Delta Lloyd is
capital, on which management is expected to give more colour on 2
nd
Dec. Our base case scenario is €1.2bn capital raise to take its standard
model based Solvency II ratio to around 155%.

dati non brutti, la gestione operativa prosegue più o meno come sempre.
Resta da colmare la carenza di capitale dovuta alle svalutazioni del 3° trimestre, che mi sembrano esser state correlate al cambio di management oltre che alla volatilità dei mesi di maggio e giugno.
Il 2.12... annunceranno il fatidico aumento di capitale che il mercato e l'azione già scontano, anche perchè leggevo altrove che altri ibridi non ne possono emettere.
 
dati non brutti, la gestione operativa prosegue più o meno come sempre.
Resta da colmare la carenza di capitale dovuta alle svalutazioni del 3° trimestre, che mi sembrano esser state correlate al cambio di management oltre che alla volatilità dei mesi di maggio e giugno.
Il 2.12... annunceranno il fatidico aumento di capitale che il mercato e l'azione già scontano, anche perchè leggevo altrove che altri ibridi non ne possono emettere.

Dove hai letto che non possono emettere altri ibridi? Mi mandi il link.


Grazie
 
Dove hai letto che non possono emettere altri ibridi? Mi mandi il link.
Grazie

ciao Cat, qui trovi qualcosa, tradotto con google viene fuori:

Analysts spring peels really believe the necessary capital gain. ABNA think 500 million is well enough. They also believe that the current price level, an emission of 1.5 billion has been priced in. Much will depend on the valuation of the major (mainly Dutch) mortgage portfolio. The market value of which is difficult to determine. It is a great happiness for DL ​​that it is currently doing very well in the mortgage market and provide approximately 47% of mortgage guarantees. It would be a big hit as they could sell the stake in Van Lanschot. This is on the balance sheet for 223 million while the current stock exchange value amounts to 270 million. 50% of the equity portfolio is hedged by S & P. Under the latter would unfortunately be little room for the issuance of a subordinated loan because the ceiling for this would be almost reached. Raising interest rates is of course the greatest gift that can happen to us. The bottom seems to have achieved that. I guess that 7 euros is the mat.

Ovviamente è solo un punto di vista di un forumer olandese
 
Ultima modifica:
Operazione a tre molto difficile (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Milano, 10 nov - "Siamo sul pezzo in modo aggressivo, parliamo con molti ma abbiamo qualcosa di particolare in ballo che stiamo gestendo. Bisogna avere la pazienza necessaria perche' bisogna fare le cose fatte bene e io sono convinto che faremo qualcosa fatto bene". Cosi' l'a.d. del Banco Popolare, Pier Francesco Saviotti, rispondendo alle domande degli analisti sul consolidamento del settore. "Non abbiamo cambiato idea - ha aggiunto - ma queste cose non si fanno in un balletto, bisogna discutere e ridiscutere". Quanto poi all'ipotesi di realizzare un'operazione a tre, Saviotti ha notato: "Il triangolo era di moda una volta, oggi lo e' un po' meno. Penso che un'operazione a tre sia obiettivamente molto difficile anche se tecnicamente si puo' anche fare", ha concluso.
ma che tocca leggere:-o
 
ciao Cat, qui trovi qualcosa, tradotto con google viene fuori:

Analysts spring peels really believe the necessary capital gain. ABNA think 500 million is well enough. They also believe that the current price level, an emission of 1.5 billion has been priced in. Much will depend on the valuation of the major (mainly Dutch) mortgage portfolio. The market value of which is difficult to determine. It is a great happiness for DL ​​that it is currently doing very well in the mortgage market and provide approximately 47% of mortgage guarantees. It would be a big hit as they could sell the stake in Van Lanschot. This is on the balance sheet for 223 million while the current stock exchange value amounts to 270 million. 50% of the equity portfolio is hedged by S & P. Under the latter would unfortunately be little room for the issuance of a subordinated loan because the ceiling for this would be almost reached. Raising interest rates is of course the greatest gift that can happen to us. The bottom seems to have achieved that. I guess that 7 euros is the mat.

Ovviamente è solo un punto di vista di un forumer olandese

Grazie

Potrebbe aver ragione perche' ho in mano una ricerca abbastanza ben fatta e non menziona nessun emissione subordinata per colmare il gap di capitale.
 

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