Delta Lloyd
3Q15 IMS - numbers slightly ahead, but capital
concern remains an overhang, next catalyst 2nd Dec
investor day -
Delta Lloyd reported its 3Q15 IMS but before going into the numbers, we
flag that management is looking to give colour on Solvency II at the
investor day on 2
nd Dec, i.e. the capital overhang is expected to continue
for another month. With respect to the 3Q15 numbers 1) the IGD ratio (i.e.
Solvency I ratio) improved 2ppts QoQ to 181% which is a touch better
than our forecast of 178%; 2) IFRS book value increased sharply by 11%
QoQ to €2.4bn (vs. JPMe €2.1bn); and 3) non life combined ratio came in
at 96.6% which is inline with 1H15 96.8%, but worse than 9M14 95.8%.
Overall we believe that the numbers are slightly better than expected,
however the key issue for Delta Lloyd at the moment is capital on which
we expect and update on 2nd Dec.
IGD ratio (Solvency I ratio) at 3Q15 came in at 181% versus 1H15
179% and JPMe 178%. This beat is partly due to the benefit from the
sale of DL German Life (1ppts) and the remainder we believe is due to
better than expected market impact. As we transition towards Solvency
II, we note that the IGD ratio will become less relevant. Currently we
expect DL's standard model based Solvency II ratio of around 125-130%
which we believe is below the large Dutch life insurers.
IFRS book value came in at €2.4bn which is an 11% increase QoQ
and is 15% above our forecast. In our view the beat is driven by mark
to market accounting that creates volatility in the balance sheet.
However, we flag that the IFRS book value increase doesn’t have any
impact on its capital or cash flows which are the key metrics that matter
when it comes to shareholder capital returns.
Conclusion: We believe that these are inline to slightly better than
expected set of results, however the key concern on Delta Lloyd is
capital, on which management is expected to give more colour on 2
nd
Dec. Our base case scenario is €1.2bn capital raise to take its standard
model based Solvency II ratio to around 155%.