Maxwhite
Bondonly
D'accordo con te. Mica per niente quota 93-94 .......
Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Ho iniziato a guardare (oltre ai TDS) qualche bond (ci sono anche i "non senior")di banche turche (es. TURKIYE IS BANKASI o Akbank, Garanti Bank) sia quelli in $ che quelli (es. 11,5% Türkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (2021) - XS1513744091 - Börse Berlin) domestici
Qualcun altro ?
Tutti i caveat si danno per detti.
Intro di un rep di JPM di fine aprile (anteceente alle ultime turbolenze).
Turkish banks
1Q18 earnings: Steaming ahead in rough seas
At a 46%/41% discount to EM peers on 12m fwd P/E and P/B, Turkish banks
offer a significant risk reward as we expect earnings to remain resilient over
2018-19E, but currency stability and lower rates are needed to unlock a
meaningful rerating, in our view. Our top picks remain Garanti and Akbank
on superior profitability (16.1-16.4% 18E RONAV), high capital ratios (14.4-
15.0% CET1), more conservative risk profiles and attractive dividend yields.
Yapi Kredi could surprise on 1Q18 earnings with better core spread evolution
vs peers and stronger asset quality.
1Q earnings preview: We expect aggregate NII to fall ~3.5% q/q mainly
due to lower contributions from CPI linkers, although core spreads likely
remained flattish or even improved for some banks with continued
repricing. We think strong fee growth momentum will continue at all banks
except for Halk, supporting core revenues. Cost of risk could see an increase
at more conservative banks including Garanti due to new inflows of
restructured loans and IFRS 9 implementation. Overall, we believe Yapi
Kredi could surprise this quarter with better core spread evolution vs peers
and decent asset quality trends with lower inflows and strong collections.
We expect VakifBank to post flattish earnings growth mainly on contracting
spreads and lower CPI linker revenues as well as a higher effective tax rate.
FX asset quality back in focus: News reports on FX loan restructuring
requests by large companies including Yildiz and Dogus have brought FX
asset quality back into focus. We provide a scenario analysis simplistically
assuming that 10% of banks’ FX loan books are restructured this year, with
10% general provisioning under IFRS 9. On this basis, our analysis shows
that banks could see an 8-12% drop in earnings, with Akbank least affected.
Additionally, available free provisions offer an important cushion especially
Isbank (TL1.6bn), Garanti (TL 1.2bn) and Akbank (TL700mn).
Early elections do not significantly change banks’ short-term
fundamental picture, in our view. We are yet to see how the new
government will address macro imbalances post the elections. We see high
cost of equity as the biggest burden on Turkish banks’ valuation multiples.
Currency stabilization, lower inflation and resulting lower bond yields
would rerate bank multiples, along with slower loan growth in the short
Qualcun altro ?
Tutti i caveat si danno per detti.
Intro di un rep di JPM di fine aprile (anteceente alle ultime turbolenze).
Turkish banks
1Q18 earnings: Steaming ahead in rough seas
At a 46%/41% discount to EM peers on 12m fwd P/E and P/B, Turkish banks
offer a significant risk reward as we expect earnings to remain resilient over
2018-19E, but currency stability and lower rates are needed to unlock a
meaningful rerating, in our view. Our top picks remain Garanti and Akbank
on superior profitability (16.1-16.4% 18E RONAV), high capital ratios (14.4-
15.0% CET1), more conservative risk profiles and attractive dividend yields.
Yapi Kredi could surprise on 1Q18 earnings with better core spread evolution
vs peers and stronger asset quality.
1Q earnings preview: We expect aggregate NII to fall ~3.5% q/q mainly
due to lower contributions from CPI linkers, although core spreads likely
remained flattish or even improved for some banks with continued
repricing. We think strong fee growth momentum will continue at all banks
except for Halk, supporting core revenues. Cost of risk could see an increase
at more conservative banks including Garanti due to new inflows of
restructured loans and IFRS 9 implementation. Overall, we believe Yapi
Kredi could surprise this quarter with better core spread evolution vs peers
and decent asset quality trends with lower inflows and strong collections.
We expect VakifBank to post flattish earnings growth mainly on contracting
spreads and lower CPI linker revenues as well as a higher effective tax rate.
FX asset quality back in focus: News reports on FX loan restructuring
requests by large companies including Yildiz and Dogus have brought FX
asset quality back into focus. We provide a scenario analysis simplistically
assuming that 10% of banks’ FX loan books are restructured this year, with
10% general provisioning under IFRS 9. On this basis, our analysis shows
that banks could see an 8-12% drop in earnings, with Akbank least affected.
Additionally, available free provisions offer an important cushion especially
Isbank (TL1.6bn), Garanti (TL 1.2bn) and Akbank (TL700mn).
Early elections do not significantly change banks’ short-term
fundamental picture, in our view. We are yet to see how the new
government will address macro imbalances post the elections. We see high
cost of equity as the biggest burden on Turkish banks’ valuation multiples.
Currency stabilization, lower inflation and resulting lower bond yields
would rerate bank multiples, along with slower loan growth in the short
Ultima modifica:
bia06
Listen other's viewpoint avoid conflicts & wars.
L'ho in pf e ho intenzione di portarla a scadenza, reinvestendo cedole nella stessa valuta.
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
OT
Siamo a spanne al 20% lordo di rendimento
(il cambio sfavorevole e il trend del cambio non aiutano)
Near
Forumer storico
con tutta la serie di bond turchi in $ che sono scesi ben sotto la parità o ci si sono avvicinati molto questi in lire turche li lascio volentieri.
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
con tutta la serie di bond turchi in $ che sono scesi ben sotto la parità o ci si sono avvicinati molto questi in lire turche li lascio volentieri.
E' ovvio che il r/r è diverso.
Nessuno regala niente.
Near
Forumer storico
pensa che il primo acquisto in lire turche lo feci con cambio 1/2,7 mentre ora è 1/5,2 e non era una vita fa
magari quel 11,5% di rendimento lordo (per chi sta in italia 8.51 netto) ti compensa
ma l'emittente è affidabile?
confido di più in un recupero dei prezzi di quelli in dollari, scadenze lunghe.
Ultima modifica:
warren baffo
Forumer storico
DE0008592759
solo per segnalare che la T1 sopravvissuta di IKB dopo essere rimasta inchiodata ai 70 dell'ultima offerta di acquisto dell'autunno scorso, da un mesetto sembra abbia iniziato a muoversi pian piano ma regolare...quasi 2 figure...
speriamo.....
(disclaimer: fonte Boerse Frankfurt online )
solo per segnalare che la T1 sopravvissuta di IKB dopo essere rimasta inchiodata ai 70 dell'ultima offerta di acquisto dell'autunno scorso, da un mesetto sembra abbia iniziato a muoversi pian piano ma regolare...quasi 2 figure...
speriamo.....
(disclaimer: fonte Boerse Frankfurt online )
warren baffo
Forumer storico
XS0221762932
per chi cerca bancari lire turche ricordo c'è anche la zero coupon di depfa che rende intorno 18%
scadenza 06/2020 e taglio minimo più accessibile (circa 14k euro)
non so valutare bene il rischio rispetto a quella di vento (escluso aspetto valuta ovviamente), forse direi più sicura, non turca...gradite opinioni
per chi cerca bancari lire turche ricordo c'è anche la zero coupon di depfa che rende intorno 18%
scadenza 06/2020 e taglio minimo più accessibile (circa 14k euro)
non so valutare bene il rischio rispetto a quella di vento (escluso aspetto valuta ovviamente), forse direi più sicura, non turca...gradite opinioni
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Grazie della segnalazione,
io mica avevo indicato quella in particolare.
Cerco spunti a tutto campo.
