qui siamo quasi ai minimi dell'anno
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/anleihen/factsheet?ID_NOTATION=80060574
rendimento alla call di poco superiore al 5%...da valutare se scende sotto i 106
Ieri e' stata downgradata
Fitch Downgrades RWE to 'BBB+', Stable Outlook 20 Aug 2013 10:03 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-20 August 2013: Fitch Ratings has downgraded RWE AG's (RWE) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', subordinated note rating to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The Short-term IDR has been affirmed at 'F2'. The Outlook for the Long-term IDR is Stable.
The downgrade reflects the structural pressures in the German power market which reduces RWE's overall cash flow generation and, despite the EUR1bn efficiency enhancement programme and steady or improved conditions in other segments including positive arbitration outcome in its gas segment, increases Fitch-expected forecast leverage by around 0.4x over the next three to five years.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Traditional Power Generation is Becoming Uneconomic
Increasing renewables production with priority dispatch, weak economic growth and an unfavorable supply-demand balance for conventional generation capacity for most parts of the year have seen electricity baseload prices drop as low as EUR36/MWh in the German forward markets. At this pricing only lignite plants can still be run profitably. Nuclear (assuming the nuclear tax or a replacement levy is extended beyond 2016), hard coal and gas plants are mostly uneconomic at this pricing level.
Significant Reduction in Earnings
As a result, with forward hedging rolling off, Fitch expects RWE to see EBITDA from conventional power generation to reduce in the order of EUR2.5bn-3.0bn by 2017, reflecting the combined burden from carbon costs (already included in our previous rating forecast in 2012 as free allocation of carbon certificates ended in 2012) and deteriorating electricity prices in Germany, Benelux and neighboring markets (only partially included in the previous rating forecast in 2012).
Positive Gas Arbitration Outcome
Fitch notes that the positive outcome of the arbitration procedure related to the gas supply contracts with Gazprom confirms that these agreements ultimately provide reasonable protection against significant gas market movements. Management indicated that the Trading/Gas Midstream business has a normalized profitability of EUR300m-EUR400m per annum. At the same time, this business will continue to attract working capital movements, i.e. as and when the oil-gas spread moves RWE will have to fund the difference, at least until agreement over compensation with Gazprom has been reached and is settled.
Reducing Electricity Prices Move Leverage Higher
Fitch forecasts nuclear- and lease-adjusted funds from operations (FFO) net leverage of 3.5x-3.7x and corresponding fixed charge cover of 4.0x-4.5x over the rating horizon. In comparison taking out the nuclear liabilities, lease-adjusted FFO net leverage is expected to be 2.5x-2.6x and fixed charge cover 5.0x-5.4x. Forecast leverage metrics have increased by around 0.4x due to the abovementioned drivers.
To assess the implications of the nuclear decommissioning liabilities on utilities with short remaining plant lives (as in Germany), in 2012 Fitch relied on analysis of forecast cash flows assuming a utility fully funds the nuclear provision with a separate pool of dedicated assets over the remaining useful life of the plants. However, this assumption is fictitious in the context of German nuclear operations funding and therefore results in unrealistic cash flow and leverage forecasts compared with reported financials.
In assessing utilities with nuclear plants with average remaining life of 10 years or less, Fitch will therefore focus on a nuclear- and lease- adjusted FFO net leverage ratio. For this, lease-adjusted net debt is increased by nuclear liabilities net of associated, unencumbered assets. The cash flow divider is increased by utilization of the provision net of additions charged to the income statement for that year. As a result, the formula reflects (net financial debt + leasing adjustment + nuclear provision net of associated, unencumbered assets) / (FFO + net cash interest + lease rental + utilization of nuclear provision net of additions charged for the year).
Portfolio is Concentrated in Continental European Markets
RWE has strong positions in the gas and electricity markets in Germany, UK and Benelux, a growing presence in Central and Eastern Europe, a growing renewables business, open cast mining of lignite and upstream oil and gas interests. The oil and gas activities are expected to be sold over the medium-term. Considering regulated and quasi-regulated forecast earnings from grids and renewables of 25%-30% and a portfolio that is rather concentrated in difficult continental European markets, we view RWE's business profile as weaker compared with most large European utilities. This is despite its significant position in lignite fired generation that is currently well placed in the merit order.
Government Intervention Continues To Be A Threat
European governments have imposed a variety of additional taxes, regulatory requirements and other measures on utilities in the recent past. The political debate to find a balance between budget consolidation and economically sustainable energy policies remains an ongoing and uncertain process. With CO2 emissions of 792g/KWh RWE is rather exposed to carbon costs and any government intervention in this area would have a broader impact on the group than on peers.
Continued Investment Discipline Required
After completing major capital projects under construction by the end of 2014, we expect RWE to reduce capital expenditure to EUR3bn-EUR4bn per annum, focusing on maintenance of existing assets and selected growth projects with solid earnings and return visibility.
LIQUIDITY
RWE's liquidity is strong. As of 30 June 2013, the group held EUR1.9bn of cash and cash equivalents, around EUR2.0bn of short-term securities (excluding an estimated EUR600m of pledged assets) and EUR4bn of committed, undrawn credit facilities with a maturity in November 2017. Also, during the second half of 2013 RWE has already received disposal proceeds for Net4Gas and compensation awarded to the group for price revisions related to long-term gas supply contracts with Gazprom of in aggregate around EUR2.6bn. Disposal proceeds for the stake in Excelerate Energy are still expected.
Management expects operations to be free cash flow neutral or positive from 2015. Assuming another EUR500m-EUR1,000m negative free cash flow for 2013 and 2014 (in aggregate), short-term maturities of EUR4.4bn and additional refinancing needs of EUR2.5bn by the end of 2015, the group is funded into 2016.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive: Future developments that could lead to a positive rating action include:
- Forecast lease- and nuclear- adjusted FFO net leverage below 3.0x and corresponding fixed charge cover above 4.5x on a sustained basis.
Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating action include:
- Forecast lease- and nuclear- adjusted FFO at around 4.0x and corresponding fixed charge cover below 4.0x on a sustained basis.
- Changes in energy policy in Germany related to carbon markets leading to further pressure on RWE's generation segment.
- Increase in business risk, for example corporate activity or management loosening investment discipline related to capital expenditure.
Fitch forecasts do not factor in the potential sale of RWE's upstream oil and gas assets. If this sale goes ahead Fitch would likely slightly tighten the guidance metrics as operations would be even more concentrated in difficult continental generation European markets.
ma ne ho ancora un treno con prezzo medio intorno a 70 da circa 10 anni
(è stato il mio primo perpetual
)
) e che si chiama Deutsche PostBank (magari non sono neanche parenti ...
(IRS10a + 0.125% 
) MA, e qui chiedo a vossia ... STA SALENDO che sembra Bartali ( = NON veloce MA COSTANTE, e scusatemi il paragone ..).
