Notavo che la Groupama 6,375% non scambia su Euronext dal 25 Aprile, quando uno sciagurato l'ha svenduta a 103,66 (indovinate chi è
). Mi sembra infatti di ricordare che i molti forumisti che (saggiamente) hanno venduto in area 110, dopo il primo turno delle elezioni francesi, abbiano operato OTC.
Ciao Joe,
malgrado l'ordine (categorico e impegnativo per tutti) fosse quello di vendere (almeno la metà), son rimasto fermo.
Ho dato un'occhiata in giro e i prezzi mi sembrano tirati anche in altri lidi . Rimanere troppo liquido, mio limite, non so stare.
The past few weeks have seen continued strong performance in insurance
spreads, while new issuance ticks along and Q1 2017 earnings season is well
underway. Last week, Fitch surprised the market by upgrading Groupama S.A.,
raising the sub debt rating to investment grade and causing CCAMA spreads to
outperform. Meanwhile, Intesa Sanpaolo Vita was downgraded by Fitch, largely
as expected, following the downgrade of the Italian sovereign. Q1 17 results
thus far have been reasonable with RSA, Generali & CNP Assurances the
strongest in our view. Solvency II ratios in most cases backed up 0-10pts but
overall capitalisation remains strong in our view. Along with its results release,
AXA announced it intends to IPO a minority stake in its US business in 2018,
although we believe the exact impact for credit investors is unclear at this time.
Looking forward, we expect P&C pricing to remain soft although still at
sufficient levels to enable companies to report 96-98% combined ratios. We also
think life insurers will continue to benefit from higher rates which increase
margins on fixed rate products as well as modestly improving investment
income. Elsewhere, the next milestone for the industry in terms of Solvency II
will be when companies report their ratios both with and without transitional
factors, which we expect by mid-year in most cases.
Spreads: Insurance sub spreads have continued their impressive ramp tighter,
buoyed by the French elections, with the iBoxx insurance sub index -49bps
tighter to 234bps on the month. Over the same time period, bank sub debt (tier
II) tightened by only -30bps, while the iBoxx Corporates Index was effectively
flat. Interestingly, the differential between bank tier 2 and insurance sub spreads
(c. 111bps) is below the rolling LTM average (c. 141bps). While we still
consider insurance sub debt as relatively undervalued vs. bank tier 2, we
acknowledge recent tightening brings the sector much closer to our view of fair
value (we have previously suggested 50-60bps as a reasonable differential to
reflect duration and structural differences).
Issuance: Primary market activity has continued at a reasonable pace over the
past few weeks with new sub debt issues from Vienna Insurance (€450m across
a 10yr bullet and 30-NC-10) and Phoenix Group (£150m tap of the recently
issued 2022 notes). The year-to-date issuance total now stands at €10.9bn,
notably ahead of the same period for 2016 (€8.2bn) and 2015 (€8.4bn). With
current spreads at tight levels, and most of the European elections of concern to
investors now behind us, we see the issuance environment as conducive for
insurers, and continue to expect a heavy year of issuance, potentially up to
€30bn (vs. €24.8bn for FY16 and €21.9bn for FY15).
We maintain an OW rating on the sub debt sector, considering attractive
valuations, decent operating performance and resilient Solvency II ratios.
