We are currently OW mutual French insurer Groupama, considering relatively attractive trading levels, a conservative
investment portfolio and stable operating performance. The company is well established in France, but generally lacks
scale/presence elsewhere. While small in size the company has good market positions in its chosen niches including
agricultural insurance (no. 1) and local authority insurance (no. 1). Groupama’s credit profile has been improving in recent
years, with Fitch in June 2017 upgrading the IFS rating to A- (from BBB+) and the sub debt rating to BBB- (from BB+), i.e. to
investment grade. We note the company continues to issue ‘Certificats Mutualistes' (€375m issued thus far, qualifying as tier 1
capital) directly to policyholders which we believe the company will do iteratively to improve the capital position. The Solvency II
ratio stands at 326% as of H1 17 (up 37pts from Dec-16) while the ex-transitionals ratio now looks more stable at 191%.
CCAMA continues to conduct successful liability management issuing €650m of new 10yr sub bullets in Jan-17 in exchange for
partial redemption of the 6.298% perps and 7.875% 2039s, while the remaining 6.298% perps were called in Oct-17. The group
also sold its c. 13% stake in Icade to Crédit Agricole in June 2017 for €715m, although the intended use of proceeds hasn't
been disclosed (we do not rule out using proceeds to further boost the Solvency II capital position). H1 17 results were strong
with premium income rising 1.6% (€9.2bn), while net income rose to €286m vs. €69m y/y, supported by improvements in the life
portfolio and disposals of Icade and OPT Bank stakes. While we acknowledge Groupama's smaller profile vs. French peers, the
CCAMA 6.375% sub perps are trading at an attractive 2.92% yield (Z-spread of 256bps) which is a significant pickup vs. larger
French peers (e.g. AXASA 3.941% perp: Z+145bps, SCOR 3 ⅞ perp: Z+146bps). Risks to our rating include any deterioration
in the ex-transitionals Solvency II ratio, and failure to drive organic growth in the company’s chosen niches.