Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3
- Creatore Discussione Joe Silver
- Data di Inizio
vbrm
Forumer attivo
Di questa avresti il prospetto, anche un link ? In rete non lo trovo ...
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Sei contento di vedere le tue UCG collassare? Io voglio tutto e subito...
Collassare ?
Io sono ben contento della performance delle UCG da quando sono entrato.
Chi troppo vuole ...
woolloomooloo
Forumer storico
domanda da neofita: l'ultimo paragrafo che ho evidenziato in grassetto non l'ho proprio capito, che significa?
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
J.P. Morgan Logo
04 Dec 2014
Europe Economic Research
ECB needs more time to think
The ECB staff gave Draghi a lot to work with, given the big downward revision it made to its growth and inflation forecast. Draghi also sounded more assertive about needing to deliver on the price stability mandate and on not needing unanimity for sovereign QE. But, despite this, it is hard to escape from the feeling that Draghi is having difficulty in building consensus for sovereign QE (and QE in general) and that any move in this direction will take time. This is best illustrated by the change in the opening statement, which upgraded the ECB’s current balance sheet strategy from an “expectation” that the existing policy measures (TLTROs, and ABS/covered bond purchases) will move the balance sheet to the size it had in early 2012, to an “intention” to get there. Clearly, this is a small change and even Draghi had to admit this “intention” falls short of being a proper “target”. And most worryingly, even this modest change did not have the unanimous support of the entire Governing Council.
Another change in the opening statement is that “early next year the Governing Council will reassess the monetary stimulus achieved, the expansion of the balance sheet and the outlook for price developments.” Particular attention will be paid to the impact of the latest fall in oil prices and especially the extent to which they lead to adverse second round effects via lower inflation expectations. The statement added that if this reassessment concludes that more needs to be done, the ECB is “unanimous” in taking further nonstandard measures, which “would imply altering early next year the size, pace and composition” of its measures. But, during the Q&A, Draghi did not give the impression that he particularly had the January meeting in mind. This means that given the new six-weekly meeting schedule next year, new policy announcements may have to wait until the meeting in early March (when new staff forecasts will be available, including projections for 2017). This suggests less urgency than Draghi has signalled two weeks ago and gives more time for growth improvements to complicate the debate by the spring.
It also remains unclear whether the next step would necessarily be sovereign QE. Our own forecast has always assumed that the ECB is more likely to enhance its existing measures (low cost funding to banks, non-sovereign asset purchases), before sovereign QE comes properly onto the agenda. Draghi did not elaborate too much about the options, but did indicate that a number of them remain on the table. At times, he also talked up the impact that the existing measures were having, even if this sat oddly with the big downward revisions that the ECB staff had just made to their growth (and inflation) forecasts. Overall, we continue to think that intermediate steps will be taken by the end of 1Q15, in particular enhancing the TLTROs and expanding the asset purchases to include nonfinancial corporate and supranational/agency bonds. But, we also continue to think that growth will pick up sufficiently to prevent sovereign QE, even if this remains a very close call.
GPSWebNote Image
Greg Fuzesi
04 Dec 2014
Europe Economic Research
ECB needs more time to think
The ECB staff gave Draghi a lot to work with, given the big downward revision it made to its growth and inflation forecast. Draghi also sounded more assertive about needing to deliver on the price stability mandate and on not needing unanimity for sovereign QE. But, despite this, it is hard to escape from the feeling that Draghi is having difficulty in building consensus for sovereign QE (and QE in general) and that any move in this direction will take time. This is best illustrated by the change in the opening statement, which upgraded the ECB’s current balance sheet strategy from an “expectation” that the existing policy measures (TLTROs, and ABS/covered bond purchases) will move the balance sheet to the size it had in early 2012, to an “intention” to get there. Clearly, this is a small change and even Draghi had to admit this “intention” falls short of being a proper “target”. And most worryingly, even this modest change did not have the unanimous support of the entire Governing Council.
Another change in the opening statement is that “early next year the Governing Council will reassess the monetary stimulus achieved, the expansion of the balance sheet and the outlook for price developments.” Particular attention will be paid to the impact of the latest fall in oil prices and especially the extent to which they lead to adverse second round effects via lower inflation expectations. The statement added that if this reassessment concludes that more needs to be done, the ECB is “unanimous” in taking further nonstandard measures, which “would imply altering early next year the size, pace and composition” of its measures. But, during the Q&A, Draghi did not give the impression that he particularly had the January meeting in mind. This means that given the new six-weekly meeting schedule next year, new policy announcements may have to wait until the meeting in early March (when new staff forecasts will be available, including projections for 2017). This suggests less urgency than Draghi has signalled two weeks ago and gives more time for growth improvements to complicate the debate by the spring.
It also remains unclear whether the next step would necessarily be sovereign QE. Our own forecast has always assumed that the ECB is more likely to enhance its existing measures (low cost funding to banks, non-sovereign asset purchases), before sovereign QE comes properly onto the agenda. Draghi did not elaborate too much about the options, but did indicate that a number of them remain on the table. At times, he also talked up the impact that the existing measures were having, even if this sat oddly with the big downward revisions that the ECB staff had just made to their growth (and inflation) forecasts. Overall, we continue to think that intermediate steps will be taken by the end of 1Q15, in particular enhancing the TLTROs and expanding the asset purchases to include nonfinancial corporate and supranational/agency bonds. But, we also continue to think that growth will pick up sufficiently to prevent sovereign QE, even if this remains a very close call.
GPSWebNote Image
Greg Fuzesi
cris71
Forumer storico
Mi dispiace ho solo quello della sorella maggiore. Per quello che può valere mi dicono dovrebbe avere la stessa struttura dell'altra. Tuttavia vale sempre la regola del "lieber wissen als glauben".
vbrm
Forumer attivo
Mi dispiace ho solo quello della sorella maggiore. Per quello che può valere mi dicono dovrebbe avere la stessa struttura dell'altra. Tuttavia vale sempre la regola del "lieber wissen als glauben".
Vielen dank! Uno dei miei programmi per la vecchiaia è di mettermi a studiare il tedesco, bisogna che inizi a pensarci seriamente ...
fabriziof
Forumer storico
a meno che non richieda un censimento volontario no,in genere lo chiede un emittente distressed quando vuole ristrutturare e sapere con chi ha a che fare .
TheLondoner
Forumer storico
di quale emittente si tratterebbe ?
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