Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 3

Raiffeisen Zentralbank Said to Seek 10Y NC5 Tier 2 Bond


Dec. 11 -- Parent of Raiffeisen Bank
International seeks investors for subordinated debt of as much
as EU500m, according to two people familiar with offering, who
are not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be
identified.
* Notes callable after 5 years
* Bond offering not public, targeted at small group of
investors
* Final volume based on investor demand
* A representative for RZB declined to comment on the bond
sale

 
-- Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, the parent of Raiffeisen Bank International AG, is seeking
to sell as much as 500 million euros ($623 million) of
subordinated debt to business partners and clients, according to
two people with knowledge the offering.
RZB, which is unlisted and owned by regional cooperative
banks, is seeking buyers for Tier 2 bonds due in 10 years, which
it can buy back after five years, according to a term sheet seen
by Bloomberg News. The offering was made only to a small group
of investors with close relationships with the bank, the people
said.
A representative of RZB declined to comment on the bond
sale
 
mi spiegate perche' il T1 di Erste 5.2954% callable 2016 che ha skippato cedola sta ora a 82 denaro... e la RZB 5,169% callable 2016 CHE NON HA SKIPPATO sta a 78 ????????? MA COME GIRA STA COSA??
 
Premesso che Fuzesi non ne ha MAI beccata una che sia una ecco la sua nuova view.





J.P. Morgan Logo
11 Dec 2014
Europe Economic Research
ECB: we now expect sovereign QE in January



-- We now expect the ECB to announce sovereign QE of €500 billion in January
-- This will be part of a package that includes TLTRO enhancements and nonfinancial bond purchases

Until now we have resisted putting sovereign QE into our baseline view, even though it had become a very close call. This reflected three judgments. First, that sovereign QE was still a difficult subject for the ECB, amid signs that opinions on the Governing Council had become more polarized. Second, that the ECB could still buy time by taking some intermediate steps to enhance its existing policy measures (low cost loans to banks, non-sovereign asset purchases). Third, that growth would pick up meaningfully and quickly enough to alleviate some concerns about very low inflation.

But, in recent weeks, the momentum towards sovereign QE has been building. First, led by president Draghi, a stronger argument has been made for sovereign QE in terms of effectiveness, urgency, legality and by dismissing fears of moral hazard. Second, there has been little sign that intermediate steps are being seriously considered before sovereign QE comes on to the agenda. Third, even though we expect growth to pick up, it has become less likely that this will convince the ECB quickly enough about a sustained pickup. Some govenors are still likely to object and there are questions about its design (given legal considerations). But, with today's second TLTRO seeing take-up of a relatively low €130 billion, the gap between the balance sheet intention and what the existing measures can achieve looks very big. As a result, we now think that the ECB is likely to push through a decision for sovereign QE.

At this stage, we do not expect the ECB to change its balance sheet "intention" of moving towards €3 trillion. We also expect that a significant focus of sovereign QE would be that it ultimately has a significant impact through the bank lending channel. Hence, we expect sovereign QE to be part of a package that will include purchases of nonfinancial corporate bonds and some enhancements to the TLTROs (increasing maturities to 4 years and raising the multiples on the net lending improvements from three to six times). As a result, capital key weighted purchases of government bonds totalling €500 billion would suffice to deliver on the current balance sheet strategy. In addition, most of the expansion could be delivered more quickly and with much greater certainty. The risk is, however, skewed towards government bond purchases being bigger than €500 billion, given that this could be easily justified in light of the inflation outlook. But, a larger majority on the Governing Council is likely for €500 billion at this stage. We would expect the ECB to say, however, that the bias is to ease more and to note that sovereign QE can be scaled up later.

In terms of timing, January looks most likely to us. Of course, data between now and then, plus the ECJ Advocate General's opinion on the legality of OMT will be important, together with how the political situation in Greece evolves. March is also an option as new staff forecasts will be available at that meeting, but we think urgency will win the day.

We will publish a research note later with more detail.


Greg Fuzesi
(44-20) 7134-8310
[email protected]
JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch


 
mi spiegate perche' il T1 di Erste 5.2954% callable 2016 che ha skippato cedola sta ora a 82 denaro... e la RZB 5,169% callable 2016 CHE NON HA SKIPPATO sta a 78 ????????? MA COME GIRA STA COSA??


Rzb è molto piu esposta di Erste all'ucraiana e alla russia.

Detto ciò certo che i prezzi si stanno facendo sempre piu interessanti....

molto indeciso sul dafarsi
 

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