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Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1
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qquebec
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:bleah:
qquebec
Super Moderator
Venezuela & Russia Returns Beat Argentina In 2Q
Venezuela & Russia Returns Beat Argentina In 2Q - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com
Venezuela & Russia Returns Beat Argentina In 2Q - Emerging Markets Daily - Barrons.com
qquebec
Super Moderator
m.m.f
Forumer storico
.....qualche news?
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Nonostante tutto vedo il Venezuela 2016 quotare altissimo (IMHO).
[I]Venezuela: Forecasts anticipating more deterioration
We updated our growth and inflation forecasts this week, as published in the Andean page of Global Data Watch.
•GDP growth now seen contracting 8% in 2015
•Inflation seen closing 2015 at 200%
•There is no indication that official data releases will be forthcoming in order to assess these views
Despite a dearth of official data releases, we now anticipate an even direr macro outlook for Venezuela this year. The Central Bank (BCV) has not reported GDP or BOP statistics since 3Q14, or published inflation data since last December. Nonetheless, we understand the technical team at the BCV is still producing the data, and in recent weeks the local press has leaked some figures. In the absence of official reporting we revise our 2015 forecasts to reflect what appears to be even more significant deterioration than we had expected.
On the growth side, the last official data marked a 4% contraction through the first three quarters of last year versus the same period of 2013; we assumed a 2%q/q, saar, decline in 4Q14, implying a 4% full-year GDP contraction in 2014. For 2015, the local daily El Nacional has reported that GDP slumped more than 6%oya in 1Q and more than 7%oya in 2Q.
Without 4Q GDP figures or information on possible backward revisions, it is difficult to analyze these headline numbers, but—all things equal—and based on our 2014 assumption, these data suggest a massive sequential contraction of around 30%, saar in 1Q followed by some stabilization thereafter. Based on this analysis, we revise our GDP forecast for full-year 2015, from a 5.5%oya contraction to an 8% slump.
As for inflation, in June we revised up the 2015 end-of-period forecast to 140% from 125% previously. Last week, El Nacional reported that July inflation was 12.8%m/m, reaching 139% on a 12-month basis. This figure is consistent with tax collection data marking a 140% nominal increase up to June.
Given a complete de-anchoring of expectations on the back of ongoing monetary financing of presumed double-digit (as a % of GDP) public sector fiscal deficits (fiscal data are only partially reported) and a plummeting parallel FX rate, we now anticipate double-digit monthly CPI inflation readings for much of the rest of the year, taking annual inflation to 200%oya in December. However, there is no indication that official data releases will be forthcoming any time soon with which we can assess this view. [/I]
[I]Venezuela: Forecasts anticipating more deterioration
We updated our growth and inflation forecasts this week, as published in the Andean page of Global Data Watch.
•GDP growth now seen contracting 8% in 2015
•Inflation seen closing 2015 at 200%
•There is no indication that official data releases will be forthcoming in order to assess these views
Despite a dearth of official data releases, we now anticipate an even direr macro outlook for Venezuela this year. The Central Bank (BCV) has not reported GDP or BOP statistics since 3Q14, or published inflation data since last December. Nonetheless, we understand the technical team at the BCV is still producing the data, and in recent weeks the local press has leaked some figures. In the absence of official reporting we revise our 2015 forecasts to reflect what appears to be even more significant deterioration than we had expected.
On the growth side, the last official data marked a 4% contraction through the first three quarters of last year versus the same period of 2013; we assumed a 2%q/q, saar, decline in 4Q14, implying a 4% full-year GDP contraction in 2014. For 2015, the local daily El Nacional has reported that GDP slumped more than 6%oya in 1Q and more than 7%oya in 2Q.
Without 4Q GDP figures or information on possible backward revisions, it is difficult to analyze these headline numbers, but—all things equal—and based on our 2014 assumption, these data suggest a massive sequential contraction of around 30%, saar in 1Q followed by some stabilization thereafter. Based on this analysis, we revise our GDP forecast for full-year 2015, from a 5.5%oya contraction to an 8% slump.
As for inflation, in June we revised up the 2015 end-of-period forecast to 140% from 125% previously. Last week, El Nacional reported that July inflation was 12.8%m/m, reaching 139% on a 12-month basis. This figure is consistent with tax collection data marking a 140% nominal increase up to June.
Given a complete de-anchoring of expectations on the back of ongoing monetary financing of presumed double-digit (as a % of GDP) public sector fiscal deficits (fiscal data are only partially reported) and a plummeting parallel FX rate, we now anticipate double-digit monthly CPI inflation readings for much of the rest of the year, taking annual inflation to 200%oya in December. However, there is no indication that official data releases will be forthcoming any time soon with which we can assess this view. [/I]
fabriziof
Forumer storico
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
fabriziof
Forumer storico
al momento sono con 100k sulla Venezuela 2016 ,di abengoa mi basta la 2019- Stato
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