Quando ve lo siete letto per bene ci date qualche spiegazione, riassunto?
Ormai parlo solo spagnolo dominicano
Ciao,
io purtroppo non so niente.
Cerco di farmi un'idea, ma ho la matematica certezza che non arriverò a chiarirmi del tutto le idee sulle questioni fondamentali.
Vedo che l'analista , che ha parecchie certezze e si esprime spesso per telegrammi, prima professa ottimismo poi dà per scontato sia haircut che allungamento scadenze.
Sulla questione PDVSA vi sono tesi opposte.
Ti riporto per intero,
scusandomi per l'impaginazione, un articolo del FT (essendo a pagamento darti il link non avrebbe ragione).
E ti allego uno studio più complesso sulla questione (le cui conclusioni sono : "boh")
Diffida, so che sei sgamato, quindi potrei risparmiarmelo, dagli "avvocati da 3d" che in mezza riga hanno la verità in tasca.
How to value (worthless) Venezuelan oil bonds
John Dizard asks if the bonds issued by PDVSA are intrinsically worth a lot or nothing at all
© Bloomberg
September 23, 2016
by: John Dizard
Michael Corleone: Senator? You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.The Godfather, Part II, 1974
Venezuela may not be a fun place to live at the moment, what with the high levels of violence, inflation and general social disintegration. Its external bonds, though, continue to provide a wide variety of speculative opportunities for the cool-headed international investor.The question of the moment among Venezuelan bond investors is whether the $31bn of outstanding bonds issued by PDVSA, the national oil company, are intrinsically worth a lot, even after a restructuring, or intrinsically worth nothing at all. Active emerging market investors seem to be split almost evenly on the matter, though PDVSA bonds have been bid up rapidly over the past few weeks.The “worth a lot” group points to Venezuela’s need to maintain its oil exports. These are all channelled through PDVSA’s oil production, gathering, processing and exporting system. The oil company also has a 50.1 per cent interest in the huge Citgo refinery on the US gulf coast. The optimists believe PDVSA’s credit is better than that of the country, what with owning all those real assets.The “worth nothing” faction points out that the state-owned oil company does not actually own Venezuela’s 300bn barrels of oil reserves. Those are owned by the republic itself, which has granted a revocable concession to PDVSA, really just another Venezuelan company. The oil changes owner in the export terminals, where title is taken by the foreign importer. The PDVSA ships may be owned by a group of banks and shell companies. If the oil company defaults, bondholders may have nothing at all to seize.They could, arguably, proceed against the company in a Venezuelan bankruptcy court, but such a course of action might be somewhat uncertain in the best of times, let alone after any default in the near term. And the oil concession could just be cancelled by whatever government is in power.The Venezuelan government has, so far, appeared to support the “worth a lot” case, as it has continued to pay PDVSA and republic bondholders while children go hungry and hospitals go without supplies.A PDVSA bond maturing in October was being bid for at 96 cents on the dollar this past week, in addition to what should be another couple of points of accrued interest payments. The November 2017 bond, which has a principal payment due in November of this year, is going for a touch over 80 cents, which implies a yield to par of about 56 per cent, better than most savings accounts. The October bond will almost certainly be paid out of PDVSA’s remaining cash, or, if necessary, the country’s gold reserves.Related article
Venezuela oil company to launch $7bn bond swap
Transaction is part of attempt to alleviate financial pressure as country experiences growing upheaval
PDVSA has just made a shadily documented exchange offer for its $7bn of remaining bond maturities in 2016 and 2017, which would stretch out the maturities until 2020. The only real incentive for foreigners to accept the exchange is a pledge of PDVSA’s equity share in that Citgo refinery.Since PDVSA has already borrowed $2.8bn against the refinery and upstreamed the cash to the parent company, the government and well-connected people along the way, and since any creditor trying to seize the refinery after a default would have to deal with another $5bn or so of easily accelerated existing debt, that pledge is not worth much.There are other problems facing the would-be litigious PDVSA bondholder. Assuming that company’s bonds are equal in rank to those issued in the name of the republic (another $30bn or so), there is a large, non-transparent debt to China of around $30bn-$50bn, which now takes its payments in oil shipments. Think China will let New York vulture funds collect ahead of them? And as a longtime sovereign debt lawyer says: “There is no doubt that if a civilised regime were to take over the country, there would be a lot of support for [the new government].” That means that the G7 governments, as well as China and the International Monetary Fund, would guarantee new financing for food, reconstructing the oil industry, recapitalising the economy, medicine and so on. Private sector bondholders will be legally subordinated to these lenders. A US bankruptcy judge would be unlikely to enforce a private bondholder’s claim while there were hungry children on YouTube.That is more or less what happened to the former creditors of the Saddam regime in Iraq: hair cut, and crammed down by the UN. So I am closer to the “worth nothing” school for PDVSA.
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