Output reports from importing countries
IEA raises Venezuela's oil output estimates
The gap between Pdvsa s data and the numbers provided by the International Energy Agency has reduced
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is also expected to make an upward adjustment of Venezuela’s domestic oil production data (File photo)
Hydrocarbons
Doubts about state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) output and exports figures have led secondary sources in the oil market to provide data quite different from those reported by Pdvsa.
However, two weeks ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA, which comprises 28 oil-importing countries) announced a review of their data over the past decade, which led to a downward review in Venezuela's domestic production in 2002-2004, but also led to an upward review in 2005-2011.
According to the IEA, Venezuela's average domestic output was 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower in 2002, 2003 and 2004 (during and after the oil strike); from 2.47 million to 2.37 million bpd. In the 2005-2011 period, oil average output was 300,000 bpd higher, from 2.39 million bpd to 2.7 million bpd.
This change is because the IEA now bases its forecasts on output reports about Venezuelan crude oil released by oil-importing countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by other countries. Further, the IEA uses the refining reports that official agencies and oil-consuming countries provide to the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI), which includes oil consumer and producer countries.
Barclays Capital also expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to make an "an upward adjustment" of Venezuela's oil production data.