Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (9 lettori)

[tommy271]

Bonos Pdvsa y soberanos cierran la semana con balance negativo


[FONT=&quot] Pese a las ligeras recuperaciones de las recientes jornadas los bonos promedian caídas semanales

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03/10/2014 04:13:34 p.m. | Emen.- Pese a las ligeras recuperaciones de las recientes jornadas, la deuda externa venezolana y de Pdvsa cierran la semana con una caída promedio en sus precios de 4,60 y 4,30 puntos respectivamente.

Octubre es un mes donde la República y Pdvsa poseen compromisos de pago de vencimiento de la deuda como son los bonos Venz 2014 y Pdvsa 2014 por un monto de $4,5 millardos de capital, y por concepto de cupones $137,25 millones. Adicionalmente se cancelará un aproximado de $699 millones de los restantes títulos que pagan cupón en el mes.

Aunado a ello la tendencia de las primas de los Credit Default Swap (CDS) de Venezuela y Pdvsa a 5 años sostuvieron durante la semana una acentuada tendencia al alza, finalizando en niveles de 1.650 y 1.890 puntos básicos respectivamente, por lo que se intuye una mayor percepción de riesgo sobre la deuda.

Los casos a destacar en la curva soberana fueron los de la parte media y larga, cuyos precios cedieron más de cinco puntos. Ejemplo de ello fueron el Venz 2022, Venz 2026 y el Venz 2027 cuyo precio cayó cerca de siete puntos.


En relación a la curva de Pdvsa, vale mencionar los casos del Pdvsa 2022 con un retroceso de siete puntos cerrando la semana por debajo de 80%, su precio más bajo desde febrero de este año.

Igualmente destacaron el Pdvsa 2017 (cupón 5,25%) y el Pdvsa 2035 con caídas en sus precios de 5,55 puntos en promedio.

Leer más en: Bonos Pdvsa y soberanos cierran la semana con balance negativo
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[tommy271]

Come avete potuto notare, la giornata di ieri si è chiusa con una nuova discesa dei prezzi. Mancano news in grado di contrastare la discesa. L'attuale esecutivo appare immobile, nel gestire la durissima crisi. Nessuna comunicazione dall'ICSID.

Le riserve, secondo le comunicazioni del Banco Central, sono in movimento stabile a 21.801 $ da 21.823 $.

I CDS ogni giorno registrano nuovi max annuali, ieri sera alle 20 a 1795,90 pb. da 1770,70 pb.
Resta la considerazione che i nuovi massimi, non corrispondono ai minimi sui prezzi.

 

[tommy271]

Producción de petróleo de Brasil sube 16% en agosto y llega a 2,9 MBD


[FONT=&quot] Petrobras se mantuvo como el mayor productor, con 2,48 millones de bped

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03/10/2014 04:43:42 p.m. | Reuters.- La producción de petróleo y gas natural de Brasil subió un 16,1% interanual en agosto, ya que la estatal Petrobras y sus socios iniciaron el bombeo en plataformas en alta mar retrasadas, dijo el viernes el regulador del sector del país, ANP.


La producción subió a 2,90 millones de barriles de petróleo y gas natural equivalente al día (bped) en el mes, niveles récord frente a los 2,50 millones de bepd de agosto de 2013, según un comunicado de la ANP.


Frente a julio, el bombeo creció un 2,77%. Petrobras se mantuvo como el mayor productor, con 2,48 millones de bped, o un 85% de la producción total de Brasil. Fue el mismo porcentaje que en julio, pero cayó desde el 89% de agosto del año pasado.


El segundo mayor productor fue BG Group Plc, con 96.625 bped, duplicando su nivel de hace un año y un 21% más que en julio. Todo su bombeo vino desde campos operados por otras compañías y donde sólo tiene participación financiera.


En tercer lugar se ubicó la noruega Statoil ASA, con 45.490 boepd, un 9,44% menos que hace un año y un 5,11% sobre julio. La firma obtuvo la mayoría de su bombeo desde campos que opera.


Statoil superó a Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Shell cayó al cuarto lugar con 37.747 boepd. Aunque la cifra fue un 59% mayor que hace un año, cayó un 35% frente a julio.

***
Un'occhiata ai vicini di Petrobras ...
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[tommy271]

Venezuela's deliveries of diluted crude to Citgo fell 57 pct in Sept

By Marianna Parraga
HOUSTON Fri Oct 3, 2014 3:11pm EDT





Oct 3 (Reuters) - Shipments of Venezuelan diluted crude oil to Citgo Petroleum fell 57 percent in September, although parent company Petroleos de Venezuela said it would keep production levels unchanged during the month and would honor its delivery schedule.

Shipments of the grade of oil fell to 2.13 million barrels in September, compared with 4.99 million barrels the previous month, according to Reuters Trade Flows data, after state-run PDVSA put exports on hold to reset prices for the grade.

Although the Venezuelan company in August notified its partners and customers that scheduled deliveries of diluted crude oil (DCO) would continue, sales to the United States have declined sharply.

Citgo's Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Corpus Christi, Texas, refineries on the Gulf Coast only received four cargoes with 500,000 to 600,000 barrels of Venezuelan DCO in September, compared with seven cargoes in August.

U.S. oil firms Chevron Corp and Valero Energy , which had been regularly buying DCO from PDVSA this year, did not receive any in recent weeks.

Declining DCO shipments to the U.S. could hasten the decline of Venezuelan oil exports to the country.

In the first half of 2014, Venezuelan exports of crude and products to the United States fell 3.6 percent to 773,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Ten years earlier, the country sent 1.55 million bpd.

DCO is a blend made of heavy crude oil from Venezuela's vast Orinoco Belt and heavy naphtha. Amid increasing naphtha prices that affected PDVSA and its partners, the company decided to review DCO's cost structure and stop spot sales.

Venezuela has also been storing more DCO in the Caribbean in recent weeks, mainly in Saint Eustatius, traders said. This terminal, owned by U.S.-based NuStar Energy, was partially leased by PDVSA this year to be used as a blending hub.

It is not clear when PDVSA will resume regular exports of DCO and if this decision will imply a price increase to all its clients. The state-run company was not immediately available to comment.

In September, Citgo's refineries in the Gulf Coast also received five 500,000 to 530,000-barrel cargoes of other Venezuelan heavy crudes, such as Merey and Corocoro.

And PDVSA's unit separately bought 750,000 barrels of Colombian Vasconia medium crude, 450,000 barrels of Canadian Terra Nova medium crude and 360,000 barrels of Ecuadorian Oriente crude for its Corpus Christi refinery in Texas.

Citgo's Gulf Coast refineries imported a total volume of 6.24 million barrels or some 208,000 bpd of different crudes in September - 156,000 bpd were Venezuelan crudes - according to Reuters Trade Flows data, made up of preliminary figures.

In the first half of 2014, the company imported 246,000 bpd of foreign crudes, including 161,000 bpd of Venezuelan grades.

(Reporting by Marianna Parraga; Editing by Jessica Resnick-Ault and Chris Reese)

 

[qquebec]

Recession looms over Venezuela, official data under wraps

Recession looms over Venezuela, official data under wraps

 

[qquebec]

Industry calls for urgent steps to reactivate domestic production

Piden medidas urgentes para activar la producción nacional (2244493) | Notitarde.com

 

[qquebec]

Venezuela-Exxon arbitration ruling due this week

The World Bank arbitration tribunal will give its final award ruling this week on a multibillion- dollar claim by Exxon Mobil Corp against Venezuela over the 2007 nationalization of two oil projects, legal sources said on Tuesday. "The final ruling will be delivered to the parties on Thursday, Oct. 2, according to a notification they received last week," one of the sources told Reuters. Another source said lawyers for state oil company PDVSA had left the country to await the ruling, although it was not immediately clear where they will receive the document. The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), which is deciding the case, formally has until the end of October to meet a 90-day deadline for a ruling following the close of proceedings on July 28. Pro-opposition Venezuelan daily El Nacional cited a PDVSA source this week as saying Exxon would be awarded between US$ 700 million and US$ 1.2 billion for the takeover of its Cerro Negro heavy oil project and its smaller La Ceiba. Venezuela is facing about 20 cases at the World Bank tribunal after a wave of nationalizations under the late President Hugo Chavez's socialist government.

 

[tommy271]

The World Bank arbitration tribunal will give its final award ruling this week on a multibillion- dollar claim by Exxon Mobil Corp against Venezuela over the 2007 nationalization of two oil projects, legal sources said on Tuesday. "The final ruling will be delivered to the parties on Thursday, Oct. 2, according to a notification they received last week," one of the sources told Reuters. Another source said lawyers for state oil company PDVSA had left the country to await the ruling, although it was not immediately clear where they will receive the document. The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), which is deciding the case, formally has until the end of October to meet a 90-day deadline for a ruling following the close of proceedings on July 28. Pro-opposition Venezuelan daily El Nacional cited a PDVSA source this week as saying Exxon would be awarded between US$ 700 million and US$ 1.2 billion for the takeover of its Cerro Negro heavy oil project and its smaller La Ceiba. Venezuela is facing about 20 cases at the World Bank tribunal after a wave of nationalizations under the late President Hugo Chavez's socialist government.

E' una "non" novità.
Le fonti di "El Nacional" sono note, ed insieme alla possibilità per PDVSA di acquistare/vendere $ al Sicad 2, hanno sostenuto per qualche giorno i prezzi.
Le stesse fonti Reuter, annunciavano la sentenza per giovedì, mi pare arrivino anch'esse da Caracas.

Purtroppo, dopo un breve accenno di inversione, il titolo è ritornato in trend negativo (sia breve che long).
I prezzi fanno fatica nel trovare un supporto, anche se nelle ultime sedute osservo un cedimento senza drammaticità. Comunque, non siamo sui minimi dell'anno ... mentre i CDS lo sono.
Qui, evidentemente, c'è qualcuno che ci gioca dentro.

La prossima settimana andrà in pagamento la prima scadenza "importante" del Ven.14 per 1,5 MLD.
La faccenda potrebbe essere scontata, ma darà meno fiato alle speculazioni rispetto alla deuda externa.

Quello che ci vuole per cambiare il corso degli eventi lo conoscono tutti:

* portare il Sicad 1 e il Cencoex ad un livello prossimo a 30 ... se non si vuole unificare il cambio con abbassamento del Sicad 2 tra 30/40

* alzare il prezzo della benzina ... poi lasciate pure che i militari gestiscano il contrabbando, ma almeno arriveranno più soldi nella casse statali

* augurarsi che il WTI non punti verso gli 80, altrimenti sarebbe consigliabile iniziare azioni "difensive" sui bonos venezolani

Se l'esecutivo rimarrà ancorato nell'immobilismo (ed il siluramento di "Rafa" indicava questa soluzione) quello che rischierà di più sarà Maduro. Il PSUV per rimanere ancorato al potere potrebbe sacrificarlo.

 

[boscolo117]

augurarsi che il WTI non punti verso gli 80, altrimenti sarebbe consigliabile iniziare azioni "difensive" sui bonos venezolani


ciao Tommy cosa intendi per azioni difensive? alleggerire la propria posizione sul Venezuela anche a costo di qualche minus? grazie

 

[Joe Smith]

Concordo con Tommy . . . il Venezuela non é in grado di reggere per molto il dumping petrolifero messo in atto dagli arabi . . .