The "Hurricane Milei” is also strongly approaching a Congress without majorities
If the result of the STEPS in the general elections is repeated, LLA would be the third legislative bloc
With an overwhelming and unprecedented force since the return of democracy in 1983, Javier Milei's libertarians are shaping up to become a key player in the parliamentary debate. If the results of the primaries were repeated in the October general elections, La Libertad Avanza would reach 40 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 8 seats in the Senate, a result that will place them as the third force in the Legislative Branch.
The irruption of the libertarians in the Parliament, if the results of last night are repeated, would mark the next Legislature with fire. No force will have its own majority in either of the two parliamentary chambers, which implies that the next government will have to sit down and negotiate its policies with other forces.
There could be the unprecedented fact in the Argentine institutional history that a government force is the third minority in Deputies and in the Senate and has to seek the votes to approve its initiatives in discussions with political coalitions with a significantly higher parliamentary representation than a Milei ruling party could have.
The big losers of the day were Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio, who were the main losers due to the surprising victories of the libertarians in provinces such as Santa Fe, Córdoba, Jujuy, La Rioja, Tierra del Fuego and Salta, among others.
According to the results of the primaries, Kirchnerism would lose 23 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and would remain as the second minority, with 95 seats. The first minority would be for Juntos por el Cambio, which, despite having lost 10 legislators, would be left with an inter-bloc of 106 representatives.
With his great performance tonight, Milei's followers would be left with 40 deputies as the third force of the lower house. An important figure but scarce if, as happened in the primaries, the libertarians repeat the election in October and are left with chances to compete in an eventual ballot for the presidency.
The "Hurricane Milei" registered tonight was so strong that La Libertad Avanza could debut in the Senate with a bloc of eight legislators. Never, since 1983, has a third political force had so many members in a body that historically has always been a faithful reflection of the Peronist-radical bipartisanship and among the different names acquired by Peronism (Front for Victory, Front for All, Union for the Fatherland), and the UCR-Pro alliance (Let's change before, Together for Change today).
To the historic triumphs achieved by the lists sponsored by Milei in Jujuy, San Luis, La Rioja, by which it would obtain in October the two seats corresponding to the majority, La Libertad Avanza could add two more seats in San Juan and Formosa, where it remained as the second force.
One-third of the Senate is up for renewal in October. There are 24 seats corresponding to the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Cruz, Misiones, San Juan, San Luis, Formosa, La Rioja and Jujuy, which last elected their representatives in 2017.
Those who lose
The main one harmed by Milei's advance in the upper house would be Together for Change, which would lose five of the 11 seats that it will put at stake in the general elections. If this forecast is fulfilled, the main opposition force would see its current representation in the Senate reduced from 32 to 27.
In the midst of the libertarian political gale, Kirchnerism would maintain its current representation of 31 senators. In fact, the irruption of Milei in the upper house, at the expense of Juntos por el Cambio, would prevent Peronism from becoming the second minority of the body, which would be another historical legislative milestone. From 1983 until today, the PJ was always the force with the largest number of legislators in the Senate, and it seems that this will continue.
Along with the liberals, there will be three legislators of Peronist extraction, who formed the Federal Unity bloc last February, and three others from provincial forces. Two from the Concordia Renewal Front, which in this election competed with Sergio Massa's Union for the Fatherland ticket, but which usually plays with the ruling party, and the remaining from Juntos Somos Río Negro, the force commanded by Governor-elect Alberto Weretilneck.
The province of Buenos Aires is where the ruling party would lose the largest number of seats in the country's electoral showcase: five of the 19 seats it will put up for grabs in October. Without rivals, the list headed by Máximo Kirchner was the most voted, but it narrowly beat Juntos por el Cambio, which would add 12 legislators, two fewer than those it must renew. In the internal of the main opposition coalition, the ballot led by Cristian Ritondo, referenced in Patricia Bullrich, prevailed, which surpassed the one that carried Miguel Ángel Pichetto in first place and that supported Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Surprises
In Buenos Aires, the libertarians would add nine seats. But it is not the only district in which Milei will recruit his new legislative force. Four would enter through Santa Fe, three through Córdoba and two through Capital Federal and Salta. The performance in these primaries of La Libertad Avanza was so good that it would also get national deputies in provinces such as Jujuy, Tierra del Fuego, San Juan, La Rioja, Corrientes, Chaco and Chubut.
Bullfighting scored another victory in the Federal Capital, where the payroll headed by the former bailarín Maximiliano Guerra prevailed over that led by Maximiliano Ferraro, leader of the Civic Coalition. In Córdoba, the list that carried Luis Picat as the first candidate won and in Santa Fe, José Núñez, another man close to Mauricio Macri's former security minister and as of last night, the presidential candidate of Juntos por el Cambio, prevailed.
In the Senate, meanwhile, Milei's surprise irruption could leave Luis Naidenoff from Formosa out of the upper house. The current president of the radical bloc and one of the leaders of the opposition of the last four years prevailed in the internal to his rival, the former judge Fernando Carbajal, but Together for Change came third in the province governed by the Peronist Gildo Insfrán.
Bullrich's lists were also imposed in the primaries for the Senate in the province of Buenos Aires. The president of the UCR of Buenos Aires, Maximilamo Abad, beat the payroll led by the liberal economist José Luis Espert. The same thing happened in Santa Cruz, where María Belén Tapia won the primary from Eduardo Costa. In La Rioja and Jujuy it was the radicals Julio Martínez and Mario Fiad, candidates of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who prevailed. The same happened in San Luis, where Gabriela González Riollo won.●
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