nik.sala
Money Never Sleeps
Io penso che di problemi ce ne potrebbero essere ancora, eccome.
Il rimborso di una tranches solleva un attimino, ma siamo cmq border line...
p.s. non ne ho in ptf.
Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione SINIBALDO
- Data di Inizio
Io penso che di problemi ce ne potrebbero essere ancora, eccome.
Il rimborso di una tranches solleva un attimino, ma siamo cmq border line...
p.s. non ne ho in ptf.
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
pure io solo 10k
avevo 30k di quelle in euro adesso sono a 40k
mi ha confortato il prezzo di quelle in dollari che gira piu' alto
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/anleihen/factsheet?ID_NOTATION=64739452
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
baires 2017 usd amortizing 94,01 bid venerdi'
Gianni.Mello
Forumer attivo
Global X Argentina ETF: Hearing Tier 1 firm raising country's debt rating to overweight from market perform (18.77 -0.01)
Argentina Debt Upgraded by BofA as Currency Reserves Stabilize
By Alexandria Baca Mar 17, 2014 6:11 PM GMT+0100 2 Comments Email Print
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Argentine bonds were upgraded to the equivalent of buy at Bank of America Corp. as analysts said the government has stabilized currency reserves.
The dollar-denominated securities will be supported by a strong harvest that would help build up reserves as well as by debt negotiations with the Paris Club and possible subsidy cuts, Bank of America analysts wrote today in a research note. The securities were previously rated the equivalent of hold.
“Argentina has taken several market-friendly actions since last October that could eventually lead to access to capital markets, if they are able to resolve the rest of the arrears on debt obligations,” the analysts wrote in a separate note.
The Paris Club, a group of creditor nations, invited Argentina’s government to begin talks to settle outstanding debt during the week of May 26, spokeswoman Clotilde L’Angevin said in a March 14 phone interview.
Argentine dollar bonds maturing in 2033 increased 0.74 cent to 72.79 cents at 1:05 p.m. in New York. Yields dropped 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 12.34 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandria Baca in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Walsh at [email protected] Dennis Fitzgerald
By Alexandria Baca Mar 17, 2014 6:11 PM GMT+0100 2 Comments Email Print
Google+
Save
Argentine bonds were upgraded to the equivalent of buy at Bank of America Corp. as analysts said the government has stabilized currency reserves.
The dollar-denominated securities will be supported by a strong harvest that would help build up reserves as well as by debt negotiations with the Paris Club and possible subsidy cuts, Bank of America analysts wrote today in a research note. The securities were previously rated the equivalent of hold.
“Argentina has taken several market-friendly actions since last October that could eventually lead to access to capital markets, if they are able to resolve the rest of the arrears on debt obligations,” the analysts wrote in a separate note.
The Paris Club, a group of creditor nations, invited Argentina’s government to begin talks to settle outstanding debt during the week of May 26, spokeswoman Clotilde L’Angevin said in a March 14 phone interview.
Argentine dollar bonds maturing in 2033 increased 0.74 cent to 72.79 cents at 1:05 p.m. in New York. Yields dropped 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 12.34 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandria Baca in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brendan Walsh at [email protected] Dennis Fitzgerald
fabriziof
Forumer storico
archmax
Forumer attivo
Semplice "copia e incolla" da web (non ho il link né il report originale).
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Deutsche Bank - Fixed Income Research
Trade Recommendation - Argentina: Favor Pars; look to enter long Warrants
In this note, we update our views on Argentina credit. We recommend a neutral positive overall - while we now have a more constructive view based on the latest policy reactions by the authorities, the prices have kept up with recent positive developments. We favor Pars on the global curve (switching from Global 17s to Pars), and also recommend long Warrants on dip. Argentina: we are more constructive, so prices have caught up.
The recent developments have been more encouraging in Argentina. The peso has stabilized to the 7.85 area, as the Central Bank hiked its reference rate by 900bp (although real rates remain close to zero), eliminated reserve requirements on foreign investment, limited banks' ability to hold US dollars, reached a settlement with Repsol on YPF appropriation, and more importantly, the government has surprised the market with its new CPI release for January of 3.7% MoM, much closer to reality. The adoption of the new CPI methodology was a critical development as it forces the government to finally accept a difficult inflationary situation and provides better instruments for individuals and corporation to minimally hedge against inflation through indexed assets, reducing demand for dollars.
These policy initiatives have helped stabilize capital flows and slow down the pace of reserve depletion, fueling a strong rally of Argentina assets. Additional help on the balance of payment front could come in April as agriculture exports are expected to pick up, though it remains to be seen whether the current nominal equilibrium is good enough for exporters to be willing to sell their crops. However, policy responses have been inconsistent as overall policies have remained expansionary and the government has continued to resort to price controls to tame inflation. To that end, the risk of a disorderly currency adjustment still cannot be ruled out, although a much weaker economy seems to be the adjusting variable at this stage.
Furthermore, the strong statement presented by the US Solicitor General to the Supreme Court on March 3, 2014, supporting Argentina's immunity on the so-called information discovery case has been another welcoming development. There the US Justice Department argued that the courts disregarded a key element when judging Argentina's case: the separate immunity for foreign-state property that applies under the FSIA even when jurisdiction over a foreign state is proper. In our understanding, the latter could well be applied to the pari-passu injunction even if Argentina is clearly violating the pari-passu rule. In other words, even if Argentina's violation of the pari-passu clause in the bond contracts is unquestionable, the selected method of injunctive relief imposed by the courts might not be. While we leave this argument to the lawyers, we believe this reference likely improves Argentina's chance to get a reversal at the Supreme Court - at least at the margin.
While the improvement on the policy front warrants a more positive view on the credit, the recent rally (e.g. +10pts in USD Discounts since beginning of February) and the pending pari-passu ruling, which could still result in a technical default even in 2014, serve as counter balancing factors. We remain neutral.
Favor the Pars on the global curve; switch to Pars from Global 17s.
Focusing on relative value, we favor the Pars over the Discounts and Global 17s on the global curve. The Pars have underperformed as measured by par-equivalent spreads during the recent rally, and are looking relatively cheap. In addition, we also like the defensive nature of the Pars - with the market having significantly rallied over the past month, it is prudent to be more defensively positioned with the risk of technical default still hanging. We recommend switching from the Global 17s to the Pars at the current par-equivalent spread differential of -95bp, targeting -200bp, risking -40bp.
We also prefer global bonds to local law bonds. The latter will likely see supplies at the longer end of the curve as a result of recent YPF settlement; while at the front end of the curve, Boden 15s (with USD6bn redemption due in October 2015) are the assets with the most exposure to the risk scenario of reserve depletion in in the short term.
GDP Warrant: new methodology will not materially impact the valuation; look to enter on dip.
We have been constructive on the GDP Warrants (see our 18-Dec-13 note "Argentina: On the attractive risk/reward in GDP Warrants"), but our previous recommendation was disrupted by the devaluation event at the end of January. Now that the macro situation has become more stabilized, it is worth considering the Warrants again. As we point out in our recent Sovereign Credit Weekly of 14-February-2014, we do not believe the new methodology of national accounting will have a material impact on the valuation of the GDP Warrants. We believe the coupon due in December 2014 will be paid; and this alternative scenario will likely be priced out in the coming months. After this coming payment (around 6.1 for the USD Warrants according to our estimate), there will still be close to 24 points conditional payments to be paid in the future (for the USD Warrants). That said, any consideration on the value of the Warrants has to be weighed against Argentina's growth prospects in 2014 and 2015, on which we hold a rather bearish view (recession in 2014 and likely below trigger growth in 2015) - the main risk to the Warrants besides the risk of technical default in our view. The recent run-up in prices makes entry levels somewhat less appealing, and we recommend entering long USD Warrants on dips in the coming weeks (if price moves closer to 7.5).
------------------------------------------------------------------
Deutsche Bank - Fixed Income Research
Trade Recommendation - Argentina: Favor Pars; look to enter long Warrants
In this note, we update our views on Argentina credit. We recommend a neutral positive overall - while we now have a more constructive view based on the latest policy reactions by the authorities, the prices have kept up with recent positive developments. We favor Pars on the global curve (switching from Global 17s to Pars), and also recommend long Warrants on dip. Argentina: we are more constructive, so prices have caught up.
The recent developments have been more encouraging in Argentina. The peso has stabilized to the 7.85 area, as the Central Bank hiked its reference rate by 900bp (although real rates remain close to zero), eliminated reserve requirements on foreign investment, limited banks' ability to hold US dollars, reached a settlement with Repsol on YPF appropriation, and more importantly, the government has surprised the market with its new CPI release for January of 3.7% MoM, much closer to reality. The adoption of the new CPI methodology was a critical development as it forces the government to finally accept a difficult inflationary situation and provides better instruments for individuals and corporation to minimally hedge against inflation through indexed assets, reducing demand for dollars.
These policy initiatives have helped stabilize capital flows and slow down the pace of reserve depletion, fueling a strong rally of Argentina assets. Additional help on the balance of payment front could come in April as agriculture exports are expected to pick up, though it remains to be seen whether the current nominal equilibrium is good enough for exporters to be willing to sell their crops. However, policy responses have been inconsistent as overall policies have remained expansionary and the government has continued to resort to price controls to tame inflation. To that end, the risk of a disorderly currency adjustment still cannot be ruled out, although a much weaker economy seems to be the adjusting variable at this stage.
Furthermore, the strong statement presented by the US Solicitor General to the Supreme Court on March 3, 2014, supporting Argentina's immunity on the so-called information discovery case has been another welcoming development. There the US Justice Department argued that the courts disregarded a key element when judging Argentina's case: the separate immunity for foreign-state property that applies under the FSIA even when jurisdiction over a foreign state is proper. In our understanding, the latter could well be applied to the pari-passu injunction even if Argentina is clearly violating the pari-passu rule. In other words, even if Argentina's violation of the pari-passu clause in the bond contracts is unquestionable, the selected method of injunctive relief imposed by the courts might not be. While we leave this argument to the lawyers, we believe this reference likely improves Argentina's chance to get a reversal at the Supreme Court - at least at the margin.
While the improvement on the policy front warrants a more positive view on the credit, the recent rally (e.g. +10pts in USD Discounts since beginning of February) and the pending pari-passu ruling, which could still result in a technical default even in 2014, serve as counter balancing factors. We remain neutral.
Favor the Pars on the global curve; switch to Pars from Global 17s.
Focusing on relative value, we favor the Pars over the Discounts and Global 17s on the global curve. The Pars have underperformed as measured by par-equivalent spreads during the recent rally, and are looking relatively cheap. In addition, we also like the defensive nature of the Pars - with the market having significantly rallied over the past month, it is prudent to be more defensively positioned with the risk of technical default still hanging. We recommend switching from the Global 17s to the Pars at the current par-equivalent spread differential of -95bp, targeting -200bp, risking -40bp.
We also prefer global bonds to local law bonds. The latter will likely see supplies at the longer end of the curve as a result of recent YPF settlement; while at the front end of the curve, Boden 15s (with USD6bn redemption due in October 2015) are the assets with the most exposure to the risk scenario of reserve depletion in in the short term.
GDP Warrant: new methodology will not materially impact the valuation; look to enter on dip.
We have been constructive on the GDP Warrants (see our 18-Dec-13 note "Argentina: On the attractive risk/reward in GDP Warrants"), but our previous recommendation was disrupted by the devaluation event at the end of January. Now that the macro situation has become more stabilized, it is worth considering the Warrants again. As we point out in our recent Sovereign Credit Weekly of 14-February-2014, we do not believe the new methodology of national accounting will have a material impact on the valuation of the GDP Warrants. We believe the coupon due in December 2014 will be paid; and this alternative scenario will likely be priced out in the coming months. After this coming payment (around 6.1 for the USD Warrants according to our estimate), there will still be close to 24 points conditional payments to be paid in the future (for the USD Warrants). That said, any consideration on the value of the Warrants has to be weighed against Argentina's growth prospects in 2014 and 2015, on which we hold a rather bearish view (recession in 2014 and likely below trigger growth in 2015) - the main risk to the Warrants besides the risk of technical default in our view. The recent run-up in prices makes entry levels somewhat less appealing, and we recommend entering long USD Warrants on dips in the coming weeks (if price moves closer to 7.5).
fabriziof
Forumer storico
grazie arch.
la mia posizione attuale sul warrant è difensiva.dopo aver fatto fuori quasi tutto poco sotto 8 prima della crisi valutaria ,ho 275k e attendo il 27 marzo. per il resto sono posizionato su baires bonds.qual'è la tua strategia sul warrant?