AUD/USD Il canguro suona sempre due volte

[dan24]

sei una ciola dan dovevi aspettare il segnale di uscita a 3 con me e ditro
io aspetto sto pomeriggio per vedere se i merikani li fanno a pezzi e anzi se rimbalza su a 0,8270 quasi quasi gliene mollo un altro

Aussie dollar falls below 83 cents on tame CPI
Tuesday April 24, 2007, 4:13 pm

By Daniel Morrissey

SYDNEY, April 24 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar had its biggest one-day percentage fall in seven weeks on Tuesday after benign first-quarter inflation data slashed expectations the central bank would increase interest rates later this year.


But a move down towards 82 cents against the U.S. currency was likely to be a good buying opportunity because the strength of the global economy should help limit the fall in the Aussie, said John Horner, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank.

"The risk in the very near term is that we do get an extension of today's move over the next day or so," Horner said, but he added that the global factors that have underpinned the Aussie in recent weeks were soon likely to return to the fore.

ABN AMRO currency strategist Greg Gibbs said: "A move towards 82 cents will probably be seen as a buying opportunity at the moment, based on a weaker U.S. dollar, strong global growth, strong commodity prices and strong global equity markets."

At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8247/52 versus $0.8343/47 here late on Monday, Reuters data showed. Its session low was $0.8240, taking its fall to as much as 1.8 percent since it hit a 17-year high of $0.8390 last week.

Still, it remains more than 7 percent higher than seven weeks ago when it dropped to a 16-week low of $0.7682 after investors unwound riskier bets amid gyrations on global stock markets.

Financial markets now priced only a 5 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lift rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.50 percent next week, down from a 45 percent risk before the data, a Credit Suisse report said.

Only a 52 percent risk was priced in over the next 12 months.

The Aussie could come under more pressure in offshore trade, and a near-term test below 82 cents was possible, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said.

"We are not getting too bearish on the Aussie because there are more fundamental factors at work supporting it than the chance of a near-term RBA interest rate rise," Grace said.

The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent in the quarter, well below market forecasts of a 0.6 percent rise, to take the annual pace to 2.4 percent, its slowest speed in two years.

"This shows that inflation in Australia is moderate and families will welcome the fact that prices hardly rose at all in the March quarter," Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said.

He said the annual CPI would be below 2 percent next quarter.

Underlying inflation rose just 0.5 percent for the second consecutive quarter, the RBA's own measures showed. That dragged down the annual rate to 2.7 percent in the first quarter, putting it back within the RBA's 2 percent to 3 percent target band.

"We expect rates to be on hold for the balance of 2007, although the bias will be towards tightening," said Stephen Milch, head of economic research at St George Bank.

A Reuters poll of 26 analysts taken after the data showed only nine expect the next move in rates to be up, while 10 said rates were on hold over their forecasting horizon.

Seven analysts thought the next move by the RBA on rates would actually be down, though not for many months yet and perhaps not until late 2008, the Reuters poll showed.

 

[ditropan]

Tocca portare ancora pazienza quà ... fleu, questa notte i maori hanno aumentato a tradimento i tassi portandoli al 7,75% !

Commodity Currencies Rise, RBNZ Shocks With Rate Hike

Apr 25, 2007 (DailyFX via COMTEX) -- The Commodity Currencies are stronger today as the market shifts back to risk seeking mode. Gold and oil prices are higher after the release of softer gasoline inventories and this has pushed the Canadian dollar to a 7 month high against the US dollar. To the surprise of the market, New Zealand raised interest rates again to 7.75 percent. Even though the market was looking for a rate hike, they did not expect one until June since the RBNZ just raised rates last month. However despite a 10.8 percent surge in the kiwi's value against the US dollar and a 13 percent surge against the Yen since the last rate decision, the central bank felt that domestic demand and the housing market was so robust that they needed to tighten the economy once again. There was no mention of further rate hikes in the accompanying text, which suggests that the RBNZ will pause. In other words, they wanted to just deliver two back to back rate hikes and be done with it. The potential end of the tightening cycle explains the NZD/USD's sharp reversal. Looking ahead, New Zealand still has the trade balance due for release. Canada will be releasing their average earnings and their monetary policy report tomorrow. The central bank already hinted that they are slightly hawkish, so there should be no surprises in the report.

 

[Fleursdumal]

visto alpin , ma sto rialzo non ha incisopunto perchè il $ è proprio una ciofeca
io sto continuando a fare dentro-fuori, le sparate in alto sembrano finite per cui sta tattica per ora sta pagando

Aussie above 83c vs weak USD on global outlook
Thursday April 26, 2007, 10:06 am

SYDNEY, April 26 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rebounded back above 83 cents against a broadly weaker U.S. currency, buoyed by views that the global economy will continue to expand despite the economic slowdown in the United States.

The local currency reached a high of $0.8360 in offshore trade, after having its biggest one-day percentage fall in seven weeks on Tuesday, dropping to as low as $0.8234 after tame inflation data slashed expectations for a rise in interest rates next week.

Analysts said mixed economic reports in the United States on Wednesday kept the spotlight on slowing growth in the world's biggest economy, although strong company profits helped push the Dow Jones stock index .DJI to a record level above 13,000.

"Enough time has passed since the U.S. started slowing in mid-2006 for the impact to show up in Asia and Europe," said Mark Tierney, international strategist at Macquarie Bank.

"But so far the world economy has not missed a beat.

"It is possible that there are some lags at work. But the more likely explanation is that strong demand in the rest of the world has overcome the hit from slower U.S. import demand." At 9:46 a.m. (2346 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8331/34 compared with $0.8247/52 here late on Tuesday, according to Reuters data. Its range was $0.8332 to $8355.

Australian markets were closed on Wednesday for a public holiday.

Last week the Aussie reached a 17-year high of $0.8390.

The interbank futures market 0#YIB: priced a 4 percent chance Australia's central bank would lift rates by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent next week. That risk had been closer to an even chance before Tuesday's first-quarter inflation data.

The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent in the quarter, well below market forecasts of a 0.6 percent rise, to take the annual pace to 2.4 percent, its slowest speed in two years.

Still, financial markets price a better-than-even chance of a an increase in interest rates here over the next 12 months.

"So long as commodity prices and investors risk-appetite remain elevated and the RBA is seen to have a tightening bias, even if only mild, the the Aussie dollar is likely to sustain above $0.8000," nabCapital strategist John Kyriakopoulos said.

He said the New Zealand central bank's decision to lift rates by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent on Thursday was a reminder that economic growth in this part of world remained strong.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie stays below 83c vs USD, edges up vs yen
Friday April 27, 2007, 9:52 am

SYDNEY, April 27 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar was lower against a broadly firmer U.S. currency on Friday, with weaker commodity prices also weighing down the local unit, although it was expected to trade in a narrow range ahead of key U.S. data.

The local currency fell as low as $0.8250 in offshore trade.


"The Aussie dollar came under further pressure during offshore trade as the U.S. dollar rebounded from recent losses and commodity prices reversed gains," a Westpac report said.

At 9:39 a.m. (2339 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8265/70 compared with $0.8329/34 here late on Thursday, according to Reuters data. Its range was $0.8262 to $0.8272.

The Aussie edged up against the yen after Japan reported on Friday a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.3 percent fall in core consumer prices for March. Aussie/yen AUDJPY=R nudged up to 98.88 yen compared with 98.66 yen earlier on Friday.

Last week the Aussie touched a 17-year high of $0.8390 on expectations of higher rates here in the near term, but tame consumer inflation data on Tuesday slashed almost all chance the central bank would lift rates to 6.50 percent when it meets next week.

The U.S. dollar rose in offshore trade after testing near-record lows against the euro EUR= for two consecutive sessions, but sentiment remained negative ahead of U.S. gross domestic product data for the first quarter due later on Friday.

A Reuters poll showed forecasts centred on first-quarter GDP to be up at a 1.8 percent annual rate, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.

"With the speculative community quite short the U.S. dollar, a much stronger GDP report would likely trigger a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar," said John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at nabCapital, a division of National Australia Bank.

In recent months commodity prices have firmed on expectations of strong global demand, helping the Aussie higher. Australia is a big miner and exporter of minerals.

But in offshore trade on Thursday copper fell more than 2 percent on the London Metals Exchange. Other industrial metals were also weaker, while gold dropped to a two-week low.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie dlr in narrow range; eyes U.S. data, rates
Tuesday May 1, 2007, 4:22 pm

By Daniel Morrissey

SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar drifted lower but stayed in a narrow range against the U.S. currency on Tuesday amid quiet trading, as investors awaited U.S. data later in the day for more clues on the health of the world's biggest economy.

Analysts said trading was subdued due to public holidays in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and most of Europe on Tuesday. More public holidays are scheduled in Japan later this week.

"It just seems to be technicals driving it," said Joshua Williamson, senior currency strategist at TD Securities.

The local currency had risen to $0.8331 in offshore trade on Monday on the back of a tame U.S. inflation report for March and more signs of sluggish growth in the world's biggest economy.

But the Aussie eased back on modest profit-taking.

At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8290/92, compared with $0.8267/72 here late on Monday, according to Reuters data. Its range was $0.8277 to $0.8306.

Two weeks ago it was at a 17-year high of $0.8390.

Against the Japanese currency, the Aussie dipped below 99 yen several times on Tuesday before finding firmer footing, but was still below its offshore high of 99.46 yen. It reached a 15-year peak of 100.04 yen two weeks ago.

"Firm commodity prices, the strengthening local economy and a continuing bias to lift Australian interest rates further are all providing support for the Australian dollar," said Stephen Roberts, the director of research at Grange Securities.

Another key reason for the Aussie dollar's strength in recent months has been the broad weakness in the U.S. dollar, which hovered near a record low against the euro EUR= on Tuesday.

The decline in the greenback comes as investors continue to price in the chance of a rate cut later this year after a string of soft U.S. economic reports, including Monday's data.

U.S. data on Tuesday includes March pending home sales and the April ISM manufacturing index due at 1400 GMT. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak later on Tuesday.

With investors attracted to high-yielding currencies, the spotlight will turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Wednesday when it is widely expected to keep rates steady at 6.25 percent after tame first-quarter inflation data last week.

Still, analysts said the RBA was expected to maintain its tightening bias in its quarterly policy statement on Friday.

 

[dan24]

ma sei sempre sull'AUD/USD?

sempre in range e sempre tirato sul settimanale ma sul daily ha di nuovo spazi per fare nuovi max..forse.....a traino della debolezza del dollaro...

 

[Fleursdumal]

visto che sta tenendo come un forsennato, mi son addirittura girato
vado per il max relat o 0,835 future , però pronto ad uscire come un fulmine se mi ribuca i 0,83
dan il prossimo da tenere d'occhio e il bras real/yen

 

[dan24]

visto che sta tenendo come un forsennato, mi son addirittura girato
vado per il max relat o 0,835 future , però pronto ad uscire come un fulmine se mi ribuca i 0,83
dan il prossimo da tenere d'occhio e il bras real/yen

bene bene....

cc'e' pure....la lira turca contro pesos messicano...VDLAQ

 

[Fleursdumal]

uscito con tozzo di pane, non poteva durare molto sto long naturalment

 

[Fleursdumal]

ah finalmente una figura al ribasso, scaricato uno a 0,875 e rimango con l'altro a tener duro in caso decidesse di mollare


Aussie dollar drifts lower vs USD, gains vs kiwi
Thursday July 26, 2007

By Daniel Morrissey

SYDNEY, July 26 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar drifted lower against a broadly firmer U.S. currency on Thursday, but was supported above 88 U.S. cents and near an 18-year peak on expectations official interest rates here will rise next month. The Aussie was helped by gains versus the kiwi dollar, which fell broadly after New Zealand's central bank lifted rates by 25 basis points to 8.25 percent, as widely expected, and said it did not expect to raise them further.


"We saw a bit of profit taking on the kiwi dollar, which helped the Aussie/kiwi cross," said Jim Vrondas, corporate business manager at OzForex, an online currency service.

At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8845/50, compared with $0.8865/68 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. It ranged from $0.8827 to $0.8863.

Against the kiwi AUDNZD=R, the Aussie rose as much as 1.2 percent from its low to NZ$1.1093 after the comments by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. By late afternoon, Aussie/kiwi was at NZ$1.1073/93, up from NZ$1.0974/90 here on Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar held on to gains on Thursday, staying off a record low versus the euro EUR= as traders reckoned that the U.S. currency had been sold to a point that well reflected concerns about the troubled U.S. subprime market for now.

Investors are betting Australia's central bank will raise rates next month by a quarter of a percentage point to a decade high of 6.50 percent, following strong second-quarter consumer inflation data this week.

The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: priced a 66 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise rates at its policy-setting meeting in two weeks to fight inflation.

"Our view remains a further rate increase will be needed beyond, but that will most likely be in early 2008," said Stephen Roberts, chief economist at Grange Securities.

The headline measure of the consumer price index rose 1.2 percent in the second quarter, topping forecasts of a 1.0 percent gain, driven mainly by fuel, food, rents and health costs.

The average of the two key RBA measures of underlying consumer inflation grew at 0.9 percent in the second quarter, again beating market estimates of a 0.7 percent rise.

That helped pushed the Australian dollar to $0.8871 on Wednesday, its highest since February 1989. In the past four months, it has risen as much as 15.5 percent to an 18-year peak.