AUD/USD Il canguro suona sempre due volte

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie seesaws under pressure after slump vs yen
Friday July 27, 2007, 4:21 pm

By Daniel Morrissey

SYDNEY, July 27 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell as much as 4 percent against the Japanese currency in less than 24 hours, suffering its biggest decline in five months as investors unwound riskier bets amid a sell-off in global stock markets.
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At one stage the Aussie rebounded about 2 percent to 104.54 yen -- still 3 percent short of last week's 16-year high of 107.72 yen -- before easing again. Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie fell 2 percent in offshore trade and seesawed on Friday.

Wall Street's S&P 500 index of stocks .SPX shed about $300 billion in market value on Thursday in the biggest single-session loss in five months on signs of further U.S. housing market weakness and deteriorating conditions for corporate buyouts.

The S&P 500 had touched a record high last week.

"It would be naive to think this is just a one-off event," said Peter Pontikis, treasury strategist at Suncorp. "The bottom line is there is probably more to go, if anything just to see the currencies, the Aussie and kiwi, return back to value levels."

Both the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar have benefited from demand for so-called yen carry trades -- borrowing the low-yielding yen to invest in high-yielding currencies.

At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8705/10, compared with $0.8845/50 here late on Thursday, according to Reuters data. It fell as low as $0.8666 in offshore trade, 2.3 percent down from Wednesday's 18-year peak of $0.8871.

"It's really a matter of watching for a stabilisation in equity markets to signal exhaustion of carry trade unwinding and a bottom in the Australian dollar," said John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank's nabCapital.

Against the Japanese currency, the Aussie was quoted at 103.22/32 yen versus 106.53/63 yen here late on Thursday. It fell to as low as 102.53 yen on Friday, a four-week trough.

The big slump on Wall Street reminded investors of the week-long sell-off in global stock markets five months ago, triggered by a 9 percent fall in China's main index. That bout of risk aversion also led to the unwinding of yen carry trades.

Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said his "gut feel" was to buy into the latest weakness in the Aussie, although he would keep a close eye on Japanese retail investors.

"At the end of the day, I do not think that the subprime (mortgage) issue is set to derail in the U.S. economy," Rennie said. "I do not think the global economy is about to fall over."

"I do not see any signs that liquidity is set to crunch. And I do not think that the drivers for the strength in the Australian dollar are about to change."

Earlier this week stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data pushed the Aussie to an 18-year high against the greenback and fuelled speculation Australia's central bank would lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent next month.

 

[Fleursdumal]

tra canguro e kiwi è uno scivolone continuo, vs yen poi è ecatombe

Australian dollar dives as credit woes escalate
Thursday August 16, 2007

By Anirban Nag

SYDNEY, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell over 3 percent on Thursday to its lowest in nearly five months against the U.S. currency as investors abandoned riskier trades and piled into safe-haven government debt amid a global credit squeeze.

The Aussie AUD= briefly fell as low as $0.7998, its weakest since March 21 and a loss of nearly 11 percent since its July 25, 18-year peak of $0.8871, as contagion from the deepening credit market woes led to sharp falls in regional stock markets. Carry trade liquidation also saw the Aussie fall to 92.66 yen AUDJPY=R, down over 16 percent since its July 20, 16-year high of 107.72 yen.

Those trades, where investors borrow in the low-yielding Japanese yen to buy assets with higher returns, had driven the Aussie's gains earlier in the year.

"The Aussie has literally dropped like a stone," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac.

"There's no liquidity or logic to it, and certainly no mercy. In fact, this could well be described as a disruptive market requiring the central bank to step in a smooth things out."

The sheer magnitude of the Australian dollar's fall, following on from heavy losses the previous day, led to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could intervene to check its slide.

The RBA has been routinely selling Australian dollars in the last few years as the currency rose. The last time it bought the currency on a net basis in a month was back in late 2001.

All eyes are now on a testimony by central bank Governor Glenn Stevens at a parliamentary hearing on Friday for his latest thoughts on monetary policy and the economy in light of the ongoing turmoil in global markets.

Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said on Thursday that although there had been a significant fallout from the credit woes in the United States, the Australian banking sector was well capitalised and had sufficient liquidity.

Still, Australian shares were down over 5 percent at one point on Thursday, with financial shares leading the way down.

Australian mortgage lender RAMS Home Loans Group Ltd. RHG.AX said it had failed to roll over A$6.17 billion ($5.1 billion) in maturing notes due to a lack of liquidity in the U.S. commercial paper market, causing its shares to halve in value.

As investors fled risk, many sought the relative safety of sovereign debt, sharply lifting Australian bonds futures. The 10-year bond contract YTCc1 added 0.045 points to 94.135, lowering yields to 5.86 percent when just a month ago they had been up around 6.30 percent.

Three-year bond futures YTTc1 jumped 0.080 points to 93.825, tracking huge gains in short-term U.S. Treasuries as some investors speculated that the turmoil in markets would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

That, in turn, saw bill futures price in less risk the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would follow last week's rate rise with another, at least for the next few months.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Australian central bank buys currency to stem record fall
Bloomberg News
Published: August 17, 2007

SYDNEY: The Australian central bank bought its currency for the first time in six years Friday to stem the steepest one-day drop since it was allowed to trade freely in 1983.

The global credit crunch has made financial markets "extremely skittish," said the central bank's governor, Glenn Stevens. "Where market conditions are disorderly, we are prepared to intervene from time to time."

The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.8 percent against the U.S. dollar after a 7.5 percent three-day slump as investors cut holdings in higher-yielding assets bought with money borrowed in Japan. The Reserve Bank also added cash to the financial system, as did the Bank of Japan. Central banks last week injected $290 billion globally into money markets on concern access to credit would dry up amid U.S. subprime mortgage losses.

"It's essential that financial markets continue to function," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Banking in Sydney. "It's important that central banks try to restore calm and stop markets from breaking down."

Global financial markets need Japan's benchmark interest rate to be returned to "normal," Stevens said during his semiannual testimony to a parliamentary committee. "It's fundamentally a distortion" to have Japan's interest rates as low as they are, he said.
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Japan's key overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized nations, compared with 5.25 percent at the U.S Federal Reserve and 6.5 percent in Australia. The Bank of Japan meets next week to decide interest rate policy.

South Korea's finance minister, Kwon O Kyu, said this week that carry trades based on the Japanese currency threatened global markets. The yen has strengthened at least 4 percent against all of the 16 most active currencies this week.

"They feel the roller coaster with the carry trade is getting a bit wild and things would calm down a bit if the Bank of Japan would raise rates," said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.

Stevens said he was unaware of any coordinated activity among central banks. Australia had $64.87 billion of foreign-currency reserves as of June 30.

A spokesman said that the bank had "dealt in thin and disorderly foreign-exchange markets last night to restore some liquidity."

The Australian dollar traded at 78.69 U.S. cents in Sydney compared with 78.68 late Thursday in Asia. Against the yen it fell 1.1 percent, extending its drop this week to 11 percent, the steepest decline since 1983.

"Sometimes, the ensuing retreat can go too far, resulting in a widespread withdrawal from the provision of credit that unnecessarily crimps the pace of economic expansion," Stevens said. "We will, therefore, have to continue to watch carefully how this unfolds."

Asian stocks fell Friday, extending a slump in global equities on concern that the credit crunch will stunt economic growth and erode corporate earnings. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific index declined 1.5 percent, for a four-day slump of 6.2 percent.

CME Group, the world's largest futures exchange, on Thursday increased margin requirements on some currency, interest-rate and stock-index contracts to reduce the risk that leverage will fuel losses amid financial-market instability.

The Bank of Japan, which added ¥1.2 trillion to the money market Friday, has conducted daily injections greater than ¥1 trillion a total of 10 times this year. It injected ¥1 trillion on Aug. 10 after the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank added more than $100 billion of funds.

Japan's top currency official, Naoyuki Shinohara, said he was closely watching foreign-exchange movements after the yen strengthened, Dow Jones reported.

"So far this isn't the disorderly unwinding of the carry trade the Bank of Japan's been worried about," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo.

 

[Fleursdumal]

un giro sulla bestia è assicurato ogni tot periodico

FOREX - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR CLOSES AT 23-YEAR HIGH - OCT 8, 2007
Monday October 8, 2007, 6:05 pm

SYDNEY, Oct 8 Asia Pulse - The Australian dollar closed at a 23-year high today as strong US labour force data boosted confidence in the American economy, and helped high interest rate currencies.

At 1700 AEST, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.9013 18, up from Friday's close of 0.8887/92.

During the day, it traded between a low of US$0.8988 and a high of 0.9033 at 1600 AEST - the strongest level since June 4, 1984, when the Australian dollar closed at 0.9050.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said US Labour Department data on Friday night, showing a 110,000 boost in non-farm payroll numbers during September, propelled confidence in the US economy.

This helped high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.

"The US economy is contributing more to global growth than people thought, that's better for currencies exposed to the global growth cycle," Mr Grace said.

The revised data also showed the US economy added 89,000 jobs in August instead of the earlier-reported 4,000 loss.

Mr Grace said better US economic growth prospects were good for the commodities-driven Australian economy, which meant the domestic currency would hold its ground against a rising US dollar even if the euro, British pound sterling and Japanese yen fell.

Fixed-interest rate markets have revised down their pricing for a US interest rate cut this month to 48 per cent, down from 84 per cent a week ago.

"The economic data is telling you the US economy is in better shape than the fixed-interest markets thought," Mr Grace said.

He said a strong domestic economy, healthy global growth forecasts and high interest rates could help the Australian dollar reach parity with the US currency within six months.

The Australian dollar is not expected to reach new highs tonight because the US markets are closed for Columbus Day, which means volumes will be lower.

Mr Grace said Australian labour force data for September, due out on Thursday, could push the domestic currency past 91 US cents, but only if job creation exceeded median market forecasts of a 20,000 rise.

 

[Fleursdumal]

d'altronde dopo la sconfitta di sabato contro gli inglesi lo short era doveroso
ora si cerca di difenderlo in mischia

 

[Fleursdumal]

ottimo lo sfondamento dei 0,88 , zona del prec max storico prima del crollazzo estivo
se in chiusura viene confermato boing boing boing boing

 

[Fleursdumal]

naturalmente era una megafinta ribassista
ritornato su 0,90 e sù a nuovi massimi
trail preso c'è da studiare nuovi punti d'entrata

FOREX - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FINISHES STRONGER - OCT 25, 2007
Thursday October 25, 2007, 7:25 pm

SYDNEY, Oct 25 Asia Pulse - The Australian dollar finished stronger today as speculation of a domestic rate rise next month heightened in an environment where the US economy is tipped to slow down.

High-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to be well supported tomorrow if Japanese deflation data adds to forecasts of low interest rates staying on hold.

At 1700 AEST, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.9027 32, up from yesterday's close of 0.8981/86.

During the day, it traded between a low of US$0.9011 and a high of 0.9043.

A currency dealer with online foreign exchange trading firm Easy Forex, Anthony Botros, said underlying inflation data for the September quarter, released yesterday, continued to boost speculation that Australian interest rates would rise by the end of 2007.

"It was a bullish Australian dollar being bought on the dips more than anything," he said.

"There was a lot of sideways trading ... trying to minimise the exposure in what has been a volatile market."

Futures market pricing for a November interest rate rise in Australia rose to 87.5 per cent, up from yesterday's 82.5 per cent.

The Australian dollar opened above 90 US cents today after the US National National Association of Realtors reported overnight that existing home sales for September slumped by eight per cent, to post their biggest decline on record since 1999.

The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 5.04 million existing homes was also the slowest pace on record, below market expectations of 5.25 million sales.

Mr Botros said the poor home sales data boosted expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut consumer interest rates on October 31, a move that would widen the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States.

"It gives further indication that if the housing sector continues to slide in the US, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to cut interest rates further," he said.

Consumer price index data, due for release in Japan tomorrow, is expected to show an annual deflation rate of 0.2 per cent.

Mr Botros said carry traders, who sell the low-yielding Japanese yen for high interest rate currencies, would support the Australian dollar tomorrow if deflation data matched expectations and reaffirmed market expectations of interest rates staying steady at 0.5 per cent.

US new homes sales data for September, due for release tonight, is expected to be weak, which would push the Australian dollar up to US$0.9050 as the US currency slipped.

 

[dan24]

Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the Aussie looks like it to is close to a turn. The rally from .7673 is in its 5th wave (which is from .8750). Similarly, the rally from .8750 appears to be in its 5th wave (so we have a 5th of a 5th). A slight new high (above .9342) is not out of the question but the next large move is likely to be down to at least .8750.”

It appears that the first leg of that move is over and that the rally from .9106 is a correction of the decline. Potential resistance is at the 61.8% of .9342-.9106 at .9252.


Strategy: Sell break of .9106, against wave ii high (that would be .9219 at this point), target TBD (it will be a measured objective)

 

[dan24]

 

[ditropan]

Dan, il mese di novembre e dicembre non sono mesi di inversione, mrci dà per altro ancora salita con accelerazione a novembre ...

se il crudo e l'oro salgono ancora aud, cad e nzd non scenderanno ... sono ancora tutti in piena speculazione, stanno usando la svalutazione anche per generare il rally azionario di fine anno, più guardo queste valute da carry trade e più mi sembra di vedere pari pari la speculazione sullo yen dello scorso anno ... insomma fino a gennaio è tutto prematuro, potranno fare dei ritracciamenti ma crolli per ora mi sa tanto che non ne vedremo.
... come verranno giù queste valute assisteremo ad un crollo generalizzato di oro, petrolio, metalli e granaglie + indici ... per ora tutto sembra essere rimandato.