Bund, T-Bond, 10yT-Note : Gotterdammerung (v.m.18&bigott (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
altra cosa anomala di sto ribasso è che la vola implicita sulle scadenze opz più vicine invece di aumentare e andar a toccare il 10% sta scendendo fin quasi l'8% 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Eccellente !
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
gli Euribor settembre che rendevano più di quelli dicembre per l'inversione, stanno rientrando dall'inversione , altro motivo di fiducia sul breve nel ribasso del BUND
daie che dobbiamo arrivare a pagina 14 per liberare f4f dal complesso della pagina maledetta
sparare cag@te a ripetixione da solo non è facile al contrario di quel che sembra
daie che dobbiamo arrivare a pagina 14 per liberare f4f dal complesso della pagina maledetta
sparare cag@te a ripetixione da solo non è facile al contrario di quel che sembra
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan24 ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:altra cosa anomala di sto ribasso è che la vola implicita sulle scadenze opz più vicine invece di aumentare e andar a toccare il 10% sta scendendo fin quasi l'8%
ma chi se ne frega fallo crollare a 117 sto strunzo
ecco che spunta un volenteroso
uèèè testyna stai caricando il cannone shortarolo?
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
U.S. Treasuries Fall; Foreigners Slow Purchases of U.S. Debt
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell after a report showed that foreigners bought less U.S. debt in April than the previous 2 months and industrial production rose more than forecast.
The 10-year note is down for a sixth day, the longest stretch since 2002. A report showing consumer prices declined last month failed to damp expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.
``We're bearish on the market,'' said William Prophet, an interest rate strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``It's pretty easy to be bearish'' at current levels, he said.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.14 percent at 9:21 a.m. in New York, up 3 basis point. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The yield is up from last week's low of 3.89 percent. It is still lower than the high this year of 4.69 percent in March.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 fell 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 29/32, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
Investors bought a net $47.4 billion in Treasury notes, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets, up from $40.6 billion in March, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. The median forecast was for a net purchase of $70 billion, based on a Bloomberg News survey of seven economists.
They bought a net $24.7 billion of Treasuries, the least since January.
Consumer Prices
Treasuries were little changed earlier after reports showed consumer prices fell in May and an index of manufacturing in New York rose. The data may help the note snap a five-day slump, the longest this year. Today's consumer price report follows data yesterday showing wholesale prices and retail sales fell last month, suggesting to some investors that the Federal Reserve may be close to slowing the pace of interest-rate increases.
``Inflation is contained,'' said Suzy Chapman, who oversees $3.5 billion as chief investment officer of WestLB Asset Management in Houston. It's ``a very good number for the bond market.''
The consumer price index fell 0.1 percent last month after climbing 0.5 percent a month earlier, the government said in Washington. Economists expected no increase, based on the median of 69 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, climbed 0.1 percent. Economists expected that index to rise 0.2 percent, after no change in April. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fixed-income payments.
`Risks'
The U.S. economy is facing ``greater than usual risks'' to continued strong growth, Fed Governor Donald Kohn said in the text of a speech to be delivered to a bankers conference in New York. Fed governors vote on monetary policy
Treasuries fell yesterday for a fifth day after a drop in May producer prices and retail sales failed to dim expectations for Fed rate increases. Ten-year notes haven't dropped for six days since October 2002.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan last week said policy makers may keep raising rates at a ``measured'' pace. The Fed Bank of New York's index rose to 11.7 this month from minus 11.1 in May. The index, where readings greater than zero represent expansion, remains below its average of 28.8 last year.
Greenspan ``was clear that he's vigilant on inflation, doesn't believe in the soft patch and he thinks we'll continue to see robust growth in the U.S.,'' said Anton Pil, global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at New York-based JPMorgan Private Bank, which has about $300 billion of assets under management. ``That changed the tone in the bond market.''
Pil spoke before the release of the consumer price data.
The Fed on May 3 raised its target interest rate on overnight loans between banks for an eighth time since June, by a quarter-percentage point to 3 percent.
Fed policy makers next meet on interest rates June 29-30, and futures contracts show traders expect them to raise the target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3.25 percent, from 3 percent.
Inflation expectations have diminished. Ten-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yield 2.34 percentage points less than nominal 10-year notes. The yield spread, also known as the break-even rate and a gauge of what investors expect the inflation rate to be over the life of the securities, was 2.78 percentage points in March 22.
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell after a report showed that foreigners bought less U.S. debt in April than the previous 2 months and industrial production rose more than forecast.
The 10-year note is down for a sixth day, the longest stretch since 2002. A report showing consumer prices declined last month failed to damp expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.
``We're bearish on the market,'' said William Prophet, an interest rate strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``It's pretty easy to be bearish'' at current levels, he said.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.14 percent at 9:21 a.m. in New York, up 3 basis point. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The yield is up from last week's low of 3.89 percent. It is still lower than the high this year of 4.69 percent in March.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 fell 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 29/32, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
Investors bought a net $47.4 billion in Treasury notes, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets, up from $40.6 billion in March, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. The median forecast was for a net purchase of $70 billion, based on a Bloomberg News survey of seven economists.
They bought a net $24.7 billion of Treasuries, the least since January.
Consumer Prices
Treasuries were little changed earlier after reports showed consumer prices fell in May and an index of manufacturing in New York rose. The data may help the note snap a five-day slump, the longest this year. Today's consumer price report follows data yesterday showing wholesale prices and retail sales fell last month, suggesting to some investors that the Federal Reserve may be close to slowing the pace of interest-rate increases.
``Inflation is contained,'' said Suzy Chapman, who oversees $3.5 billion as chief investment officer of WestLB Asset Management in Houston. It's ``a very good number for the bond market.''
The consumer price index fell 0.1 percent last month after climbing 0.5 percent a month earlier, the government said in Washington. Economists expected no increase, based on the median of 69 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, climbed 0.1 percent. Economists expected that index to rise 0.2 percent, after no change in April. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fixed-income payments.
`Risks'
The U.S. economy is facing ``greater than usual risks'' to continued strong growth, Fed Governor Donald Kohn said in the text of a speech to be delivered to a bankers conference in New York. Fed governors vote on monetary policy
Treasuries fell yesterday for a fifth day after a drop in May producer prices and retail sales failed to dim expectations for Fed rate increases. Ten-year notes haven't dropped for six days since October 2002.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan last week said policy makers may keep raising rates at a ``measured'' pace. The Fed Bank of New York's index rose to 11.7 this month from minus 11.1 in May. The index, where readings greater than zero represent expansion, remains below its average of 28.8 last year.
Greenspan ``was clear that he's vigilant on inflation, doesn't believe in the soft patch and he thinks we'll continue to see robust growth in the U.S.,'' said Anton Pil, global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at New York-based JPMorgan Private Bank, which has about $300 billion of assets under management. ``That changed the tone in the bond market.''
Pil spoke before the release of the consumer price data.
The Fed on May 3 raised its target interest rate on overnight loans between banks for an eighth time since June, by a quarter-percentage point to 3 percent.
Fed policy makers next meet on interest rates June 29-30, and futures contracts show traders expect them to raise the target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3.25 percent, from 3 percent.
Inflation expectations have diminished. Ten-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yield 2.34 percentage points less than nominal 10-year notes. The yield spread, also known as the break-even rate and a gauge of what investors expect the inflation rate to be over the life of the securities, was 2.78 percentage points in March 22.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonds Fall,the End of the Conundrum?
June 12th, 2005
Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
Bonds keep rising and long yields keep falling. Forgetting the patterns for a moment, either one of two things are occurring. Either we are going to see a flat - possibly inverted - yield curve at a level of historic lows for interest rates (which means a recession and sharp equity market sell-off is coming), or some huge force (we won't mention names) is monetizing our nation's debt, buying Bonds clandestine, in order to keep long interest rates artificially low to support an ongoing real estate bubble. The Maestro confessed to Congress this week he'd finally figured out the "conundrum" in Bonds. He blamed it on global deflation from an expanding world workforce, but don't rule out the possibility that privately he uncovered the shifty-eyed, coke-bottled bespectacled rogue bureaucrat who's been adding Treasuries to the Fed's portfolio from a lonely terminal off some side street on a mosquito infested discreet island. In any case, we aren't going to have robust economic growth and a flying equity market with long-term interest rates under 4.00 percent, regardless of how phony the official economic numbers become to the contrary. If price action is legit, it could be a sign that smart money is fleeing to quality.
The chart shows Bonds completed an Elliott Wave countertrend rising Intermediate degree wave 2 in the form of a Broadening Top, Megaphone pattern. Because the direction of prices preceding this pattern was up, this is considered a top formation. Prices have risen so high recently that they pretty much blew up the Bearish Head & Shoulders top pattern, but formed another Bearish pattern, a Double Top. Bonds declined sharply - almost 3 points - since topping on June 3rd at 119.72, very close to the June 2003, 120.80 top. It looks like Intermediate wave 3 down is off to a fast start now that they apparently nabbed the varmint.
Our subscribers gain a unique advantage with analysis like this, along with a host of other technical analysis research, charts, and data for a modest annual fee of $239 per year. We offer less expensive six month subscriptions, and also free 30 day trial subscriptions for folks just discovering us.
We publish technical analysis newsletters of the major U.S. Equity, Bond, Commodity, Precious Metal, and Currency markets, using multiple tools simultaneously, including Elliott Wave Theory, Supply and Demand, Momentum Measures, Dow Theory, Chart Patterns, Cycles, Sentiment Measures, Fibonacci Ratio Measures for Price and Time turn-date targets, and Analogs of Current Price Behavior with the Past to name a few.
"Humble yourselves, therefore, under the mighty hand of God,
That He may exalt you at the proper time,
Casting all your anxiety upon Him,
Because He cares for you.
Be of sober spirit, be on the alert. Your adversary,
The devil, prowls about like a roaring lion, seeking someone
to devour. But resist him, firm in your faith,
Knowing that the same experiences of suffering
are being accomplished by your brethren who are in the world.
But after you have suffered for a little while, the God of all grace
Who called you to His eternal glory in Christ,
Will Himself perfect, confirm, strengthen and establish you.
To Him be dominion forever and ever. Amen. "
1 Peter 5:6-11
June 12th, 2005
Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
Bonds keep rising and long yields keep falling. Forgetting the patterns for a moment, either one of two things are occurring. Either we are going to see a flat - possibly inverted - yield curve at a level of historic lows for interest rates (which means a recession and sharp equity market sell-off is coming), or some huge force (we won't mention names) is monetizing our nation's debt, buying Bonds clandestine, in order to keep long interest rates artificially low to support an ongoing real estate bubble. The Maestro confessed to Congress this week he'd finally figured out the "conundrum" in Bonds. He blamed it on global deflation from an expanding world workforce, but don't rule out the possibility that privately he uncovered the shifty-eyed, coke-bottled bespectacled rogue bureaucrat who's been adding Treasuries to the Fed's portfolio from a lonely terminal off some side street on a mosquito infested discreet island. In any case, we aren't going to have robust economic growth and a flying equity market with long-term interest rates under 4.00 percent, regardless of how phony the official economic numbers become to the contrary. If price action is legit, it could be a sign that smart money is fleeing to quality.
The chart shows Bonds completed an Elliott Wave countertrend rising Intermediate degree wave 2 in the form of a Broadening Top, Megaphone pattern. Because the direction of prices preceding this pattern was up, this is considered a top formation. Prices have risen so high recently that they pretty much blew up the Bearish Head & Shoulders top pattern, but formed another Bearish pattern, a Double Top. Bonds declined sharply - almost 3 points - since topping on June 3rd at 119.72, very close to the June 2003, 120.80 top. It looks like Intermediate wave 3 down is off to a fast start now that they apparently nabbed the varmint.
Our subscribers gain a unique advantage with analysis like this, along with a host of other technical analysis research, charts, and data for a modest annual fee of $239 per year. We offer less expensive six month subscriptions, and also free 30 day trial subscriptions for folks just discovering us.
We publish technical analysis newsletters of the major U.S. Equity, Bond, Commodity, Precious Metal, and Currency markets, using multiple tools simultaneously, including Elliott Wave Theory, Supply and Demand, Momentum Measures, Dow Theory, Chart Patterns, Cycles, Sentiment Measures, Fibonacci Ratio Measures for Price and Time turn-date targets, and Analogs of Current Price Behavior with the Past to name a few.
"Humble yourselves, therefore, under the mighty hand of God,
That He may exalt you at the proper time,
Casting all your anxiety upon Him,
Because He cares for you.
Be of sober spirit, be on the alert. Your adversary,
The devil, prowls about like a roaring lion, seeking someone
to devour. But resist him, firm in your faith,
Knowing that the same experiences of suffering
are being accomplished by your brethren who are in the world.
But after you have suffered for a little while, the God of all grace
Who called you to His eternal glory in Christ,
Will Himself perfect, confirm, strengthen and establish you.
To Him be dominion forever and ever. Amen. "
1 Peter 5:6-11
dan24
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:dan24 ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:altra cosa anomala di sto ribasso è che la vola implicita sulle scadenze opz più vicine invece di aumentare e andar a toccare il 10% sta scendendo fin quasi l'8%
ma chi se ne frega fallo crollare a 117 sto strunzo
ecco che spunta un volenteroso
uèèè testyna stai caricando il cannone shortarolo?
no sempre 11 contratti fino alla morte......a 117 ci rivediamo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Ultimo dato sulle scorte e rimane solo il Beige book alle 20
SCORTE DI PETROLIO
L'EIA (Energy Information Administration) riporta che nella settimana conclusasi il 10 giugno le scorte di greggio sono scese di 1.78 milioni di barili (contro le attese di un calo di un milione di unita'). Le scorte di benzina sono calate di 905 mila barili (gli analisti si apettavano un aumento di 675 mila unita?). Le scorte di distillati sono cresciute di 2.43 milioni di barili (stime: incremento di 1.5 milioni). Alla comunicazione dei dati, il petrolio ha accelerato al rialzo. In questo momento il future con scadenza luglio viene scambiato a $56.30 al barile, in progresso di $1.30.
SCORTE DI PETROLIO
L'EIA (Energy Information Administration) riporta che nella settimana conclusasi il 10 giugno le scorte di greggio sono scese di 1.78 milioni di barili (contro le attese di un calo di un milione di unita'). Le scorte di benzina sono calate di 905 mila barili (gli analisti si apettavano un aumento di 675 mila unita?). Le scorte di distillati sono cresciute di 2.43 milioni di barili (stime: incremento di 1.5 milioni). Alla comunicazione dei dati, il petrolio ha accelerato al rialzo. In questo momento il future con scadenza luglio viene scambiato a $56.30 al barile, in progresso di $1.30.