Bund, T-Bond, 10yT-Note : Gotterdammerung (v.m.18&bigott (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3042
e tu Fleu sei un tipo da frequentare ....
humm
Shwager.... chi era costui ?
e tu Fleu sei un tipo da frequentare ....
humm
Shwager.... chi era costui ?
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
f4f ha scritto:http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3042
e tu Fleu sei un tipo da frequentare ....
humm
solo non giocarmi contro a calcio che la prossima sarò io a far male
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
i tassi a 3mesi stanno facendo da strada al Bund
ditropan
Forumer storico
le parole di pinocchio !!!
PETROLIO: OCSE, INFLAZIONE STABILE NONOSTANTE CARO-GREGGIO
(ANSA) - ROMA, 22 giu - "Ci aspettiamo che l' inflazione
nella zona euro sia significativamente sotto il 2% nel 2006":
lo ha detto il capo degli economisti dell' Ocse, Jean-Philippe
Cotis, presentando a Roma il rapporto sulla situazione economica
già presentato a Parigi lo scorso mese.
Cotis ha spiegato che "l' outlook della stabilità dei
prezzi rimane comunque favorevole nonostante i forti prezzi del
petrolio", prezzi che comunque - secondo l' Ocse - "rimarranno
alti per un tempo abbastanza lungo". (ANSA).
PETROLIO: OCSE, INFLAZIONE STABILE NONOSTANTE CARO-GREGGIO
(ANSA) - ROMA, 22 giu - "Ci aspettiamo che l' inflazione
nella zona euro sia significativamente sotto il 2% nel 2006":
lo ha detto il capo degli economisti dell' Ocse, Jean-Philippe
Cotis, presentando a Roma il rapporto sulla situazione economica
già presentato a Parigi lo scorso mese.
Cotis ha spiegato che "l' outlook della stabilità dei
prezzi rimane comunque favorevole nonostante i forti prezzi del
petrolio", prezzi che comunque - secondo l' Ocse - "rimarranno
alti per un tempo abbastanza lungo". (ANSA).
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
aggiornamento della curva rendimenti US e Pimco Pallino che considera come fair value un 3,5% di rendimenti per il 10y
Oil prices, PIMCO comments underpin U.S. Treasuries
By Anchalee Worrachate
LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged higher on
Wednesday, following an overnight rally triggered by a spike in
oil prices and comments by an influential fund manager that the
Fed Reserve may soon stop raising interest rates.
Oil prices have hit new highs in each of the last three
trading sessions as fears of a possible producer-country supply
disruption compounded concerns about a winter fuel crunch,
prompting speculators to bet on a push above $60 a barrel.
Although oil prices were stabilising around $59 on
Wednesday, the pause did very little to change a view that
higher energy costs will hinder economic growth, and keep
interest rates low -- a scenario that benefits bonds.
The market also drew support from comments by Bill Gross,
manager of the giant PIMCO bond fund which manages $445 billion
in fixed income securities.
Gross on Tuesday predicted the Fed would pause its
tightening after pushing rates to 3.5 percent from 3.0 now.
"It's a view that many in the market share, and that has
supported bonds. In fact, I think the Fed might pause as early
as 3.25 percent. The U.S. economy is definitely slowing down and
a rise in oil prices doesn't help," said Stuart Thomson at
Edinburgh-based brokerage Charles Stanley Sutherlands.
"The rise in oil prices is worrying because it's a supply
problem and not a demand problem. What it means is that
companies cannot pass on rising costs to consumer. That hurts
profit margins, investment, and employment. We think 10-year
yields at 3.50 percent by year-end would be a fair value."
At 0910 GMT, the two-year notes price was up 2/32, knocking
yields down 2.5 basis points to 3.668 percent. The 10-year note
<US10YT=RR> was up 8/32, taking the yield to 4.018 percent.
Adding support to the bond market were the Bank of England's
minutes which revealed that two of the Monetary Policy
Committee's nine members voted for rate cut at their June 8-9
meeting, confounding market expectations of a 9-0 vote for a
steady rate.
British gilts surged on the report, dragging euro zone debt
along with it as the BoE minutes raised speculation that the
European Central Bank might soon cut rates after keeping
borrowing costs at 2.00 percent since June 2003.
"The market took the minutes to mean the BoE has switched
tack from tightening to easing. The rally in gilts seemed to
have spilled over to euro zone bonds, and to a lesser extent
U.S. Treasuries," said a trader at European bank in London.
Five-year yields <US5YT=RR> were down 4.3 basis points at
3.79 percent. Meanwhile, the ultra-long 30-year debt yield
<US30YT=RR> was at 4.294 percent, up 3.6 basis points from the
U.S. close.
Analysts said market positioning should continue to providee
support to U.S. Treasuries at least in the near-term.
A survey by JP Morgan showed U.S. domestic funds remained
predominantly short bonds, although international investors have
covered some of their significant shorts.
Treasuries were underperforming Bunds which continued to
benefit from speculation that the ECB might cut rates later this
year, with the 10-year yield spread widening to 90 basis point
from 88 basis points on Tuesday.
The 10-year dollar swap spread stood at 37.75 basis points,
compared with 39.75 basis points in the U.S. on Tuesday.
Oil prices, PIMCO comments underpin U.S. Treasuries
By Anchalee Worrachate
LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged higher on
Wednesday, following an overnight rally triggered by a spike in
oil prices and comments by an influential fund manager that the
Fed Reserve may soon stop raising interest rates.
Oil prices have hit new highs in each of the last three
trading sessions as fears of a possible producer-country supply
disruption compounded concerns about a winter fuel crunch,
prompting speculators to bet on a push above $60 a barrel.
Although oil prices were stabilising around $59 on
Wednesday, the pause did very little to change a view that
higher energy costs will hinder economic growth, and keep
interest rates low -- a scenario that benefits bonds.
The market also drew support from comments by Bill Gross,
manager of the giant PIMCO bond fund which manages $445 billion
in fixed income securities.
Gross on Tuesday predicted the Fed would pause its
tightening after pushing rates to 3.5 percent from 3.0 now.
"It's a view that many in the market share, and that has
supported bonds. In fact, I think the Fed might pause as early
as 3.25 percent. The U.S. economy is definitely slowing down and
a rise in oil prices doesn't help," said Stuart Thomson at
Edinburgh-based brokerage Charles Stanley Sutherlands.
"The rise in oil prices is worrying because it's a supply
problem and not a demand problem. What it means is that
companies cannot pass on rising costs to consumer. That hurts
profit margins, investment, and employment. We think 10-year
yields at 3.50 percent by year-end would be a fair value."
At 0910 GMT, the two-year notes price was up 2/32, knocking
yields down 2.5 basis points to 3.668 percent. The 10-year note
<US10YT=RR> was up 8/32, taking the yield to 4.018 percent.
Adding support to the bond market were the Bank of England's
minutes which revealed that two of the Monetary Policy
Committee's nine members voted for rate cut at their June 8-9
meeting, confounding market expectations of a 9-0 vote for a
steady rate.
British gilts surged on the report, dragging euro zone debt
along with it as the BoE minutes raised speculation that the
European Central Bank might soon cut rates after keeping
borrowing costs at 2.00 percent since June 2003.
"The market took the minutes to mean the BoE has switched
tack from tightening to easing. The rally in gilts seemed to
have spilled over to euro zone bonds, and to a lesser extent
U.S. Treasuries," said a trader at European bank in London.
Five-year yields <US5YT=RR> were down 4.3 basis points at
3.79 percent. Meanwhile, the ultra-long 30-year debt yield
<US30YT=RR> was at 4.294 percent, up 3.6 basis points from the
U.S. close.
Analysts said market positioning should continue to providee
support to U.S. Treasuries at least in the near-term.
A survey by JP Morgan showed U.S. domestic funds remained
predominantly short bonds, although international investors have
covered some of their significant shorts.
Treasuries were underperforming Bunds which continued to
benefit from speculation that the ECB might cut rates later this
year, with the 10-year yield spread widening to 90 basis point
from 88 basis points on Tuesday.
The 10-year dollar swap spread stood at 37.75 basis points,
compared with 39.75 basis points in the U.S. on Tuesday.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
mega gap up di fuga in action , ora stanno per sbattere contro la r2 poco sotto i 118 , ma qui vedo forte il tentativo di andare a testare i massimi passati sui bonds, inutile dire che c'è fortissima pressione in danaro
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 4 Percent on Global Growth Concern
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes rose, pushing the yield below 4 percent, on speculation the Federal Reserve may pause in its series of interest-rate increases as global economic growth slows.
Two members of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee called for a rate cut at its last meeting, minutes showed today. Sweden yesterday reduced interest rates by more than expected, prompting bets the European Central Bank may do the same. Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said yesterday the Fed may lower its benchmark rate early next year.
``There are concerns about growth, and it is feeding through to help the Treasury market,'' said Wee-Khoon Chong, a fixed-income strategist in London at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``You've now got the U.K. looking to cut, Sweden cutting and pressure on the European Central Bank to cut.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 4 percent at 8:23 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield earlier reached 3.99 percent, the lowest since June 9.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 rose 3/8, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount to 101. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Treasuries are also benefiting from speculation that oil prices above $59 a barrel will hinder economic growth. Higher energy costs may curb consumer spending and erode corporate profits, according to Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds at Sompo Japan Asset Management, a unit of the nation's third-largest casualty insurer.
Oil a 'Problem'
``Higher oil prices will be a problem for consumption and growth,'' said Asai. ``We may buy some Treasuries to bring our positions back to neutral from short.'' A short position is one that bets on a decline in prices.
Crude futures rose to $59.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, the highest for a contract closest to expiration since trading began in 1983. The contract traded at $59.05 in after-hours electronic trading.
``With oil prices high, people do speculate about its negative impact on growth and ability to reduce yields,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed-income strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank by assets.
The Bank of England's chief economist, Charlie Bean, and outgoing committee member Marian Bell both voted to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points on concern growth will probably be weaker than forecast, minutes of their meeting on June 8-9 showed today. The bank voted 7-2 to keep the rate unchanged.
Sweden's Riksbank yesterday cut its benchmark rate for the first time in a year, by half a percentage point, to 1.5 percent. The bank was expected to reduce the rate by a quarter- point to 1.75 percent, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
McCulley's View
Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said today the central bank will raise rates only once or two more times before stopping. U.S. 10-year yields close to 4 percent are ``in a fair-value zone.''
For the yield ``to be below 4 percent for an extended time, you need to have the Fed stop'' after one more quarter-point increase instead of two, he told reporters at a conference of investors in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
The 10-year yield will be between 3 percent and 4.5 percent for the next one to two years, McCulley said.
European Central Bank council member Jaime Caruana two days ago said there are ``downside'' risks to growth in the 12 nations sharing the euro currency. French Finance Minister Thierry Breton yesterday cut his forecast for expansion in Europe's third-largest economy to no more than 2 percent in 2005, from a previous range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.
'Bullets'
Gains in Treasuries lagged behind those of European bonds. The spread between two-year U.S. Treasury notes and similar- maturity German bonds was at 165 basis points today, the most in five years, from 158 yesterday.
U.S. policy makers have raised the benchmark rate eight times since June 2004 from an almost 46-year low of 1 percent. The median forecast of 63 economists in a monthly Bloomberg survey conducted May 31 to June 8 was for a rate of 3.75 percent at the end of the third quarter.
``The Fed has three more bullets in the locker, and it will probably wonder about whether it needs a fourth,'' said Stephen Miller, who helps oversee the equivalent of $1.5 billion of cash and bonds at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in Sydney. ``With the Fed raising interest rates and the economy OK, a 10-year bond yield around 4 percent does not offer compelling value.''
The yield may rise to about 4.4 percent in the next two to three months, said Miller.
Gross, Pimco's chief investment officer, said yesterday ``there's a decent chance that by the beginning of next year the Fed will move'' to cut rates.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 4 Percent on Global Growth Concern
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes rose, pushing the yield below 4 percent, on speculation the Federal Reserve may pause in its series of interest-rate increases as global economic growth slows.
Two members of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee called for a rate cut at its last meeting, minutes showed today. Sweden yesterday reduced interest rates by more than expected, prompting bets the European Central Bank may do the same. Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said yesterday the Fed may lower its benchmark rate early next year.
``There are concerns about growth, and it is feeding through to help the Treasury market,'' said Wee-Khoon Chong, a fixed-income strategist in London at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``You've now got the U.K. looking to cut, Sweden cutting and pressure on the European Central Bank to cut.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 4 percent at 8:23 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield earlier reached 3.99 percent, the lowest since June 9.
The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 rose 3/8, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount to 101. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Treasuries are also benefiting from speculation that oil prices above $59 a barrel will hinder economic growth. Higher energy costs may curb consumer spending and erode corporate profits, according to Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds at Sompo Japan Asset Management, a unit of the nation's third-largest casualty insurer.
Oil a 'Problem'
``Higher oil prices will be a problem for consumption and growth,'' said Asai. ``We may buy some Treasuries to bring our positions back to neutral from short.'' A short position is one that bets on a decline in prices.
Crude futures rose to $59.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, the highest for a contract closest to expiration since trading began in 1983. The contract traded at $59.05 in after-hours electronic trading.
``With oil prices high, people do speculate about its negative impact on growth and ability to reduce yields,'' said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed-income strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank by assets.
The Bank of England's chief economist, Charlie Bean, and outgoing committee member Marian Bell both voted to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points on concern growth will probably be weaker than forecast, minutes of their meeting on June 8-9 showed today. The bank voted 7-2 to keep the rate unchanged.
Sweden's Riksbank yesterday cut its benchmark rate for the first time in a year, by half a percentage point, to 1.5 percent. The bank was expected to reduce the rate by a quarter- point to 1.75 percent, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
McCulley's View
Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said today the central bank will raise rates only once or two more times before stopping. U.S. 10-year yields close to 4 percent are ``in a fair-value zone.''
For the yield ``to be below 4 percent for an extended time, you need to have the Fed stop'' after one more quarter-point increase instead of two, he told reporters at a conference of investors in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
The 10-year yield will be between 3 percent and 4.5 percent for the next one to two years, McCulley said.
European Central Bank council member Jaime Caruana two days ago said there are ``downside'' risks to growth in the 12 nations sharing the euro currency. French Finance Minister Thierry Breton yesterday cut his forecast for expansion in Europe's third-largest economy to no more than 2 percent in 2005, from a previous range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.
'Bullets'
Gains in Treasuries lagged behind those of European bonds. The spread between two-year U.S. Treasury notes and similar- maturity German bonds was at 165 basis points today, the most in five years, from 158 yesterday.
U.S. policy makers have raised the benchmark rate eight times since June 2004 from an almost 46-year low of 1 percent. The median forecast of 63 economists in a monthly Bloomberg survey conducted May 31 to June 8 was for a rate of 3.75 percent at the end of the third quarter.
``The Fed has three more bullets in the locker, and it will probably wonder about whether it needs a fourth,'' said Stephen Miller, who helps oversee the equivalent of $1.5 billion of cash and bonds at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in Sydney. ``With the Fed raising interest rates and the economy OK, a 10-year bond yield around 4 percent does not offer compelling value.''
The yield may rise to about 4.4 percent in the next two to three months, said Miller.
Gross, Pimco's chief investment officer, said yesterday ``there's a decent chance that by the beginning of next year the Fed will move'' to cut rates.