Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
su cobraf gz ha postato un grafo T-bond con sell basato su DeMark
Eccellente!
Eccellente!
Bund, T-Bond, 10yT-Note : Gotterdammerung (v.m.18&bigott (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
bigpot
Nuovo forumer
Ciao a tutti!!
Ho qualche dubbio e provo ad esprimerlo,io conto così:
I 121.15 122.30
II 121.50
III avrebbe come tgt di 1.618 123.36 e sarebbe una delle prime volte che il bund non mi fa questo tgt dopo avere rotto l'a=c...e quindi a 123.29 potrebbe non essere finita questa III...
Stesso discorso per (I)120.24/121.91,(II)121.15 rotto l'a=c tgt di III 1.1618 sarebbe a 123.85...
Voglio dire che mi sta venendo il sospetto che si possano vedere sfiorati i 124 se va sopra sono alla frutta.
Anche perchè è finita la 3 da 117.34...?
Io credo di sì a 121.06 e da 120.24 faccio partire la 5 finale,ma potrebbe essere anche ancora in corso visto che è ancora dentro ai parametri di max estensione della 3...per chi vuol dare una opinione è gradita...
Ho qualche dubbio e provo ad esprimerlo,io conto così:
I 121.15 122.30
II 121.50
III avrebbe come tgt di 1.618 123.36 e sarebbe una delle prime volte che il bund non mi fa questo tgt dopo avere rotto l'a=c...e quindi a 123.29 potrebbe non essere finita questa III...
Stesso discorso per (I)120.24/121.91,(II)121.15 rotto l'a=c tgt di III 1.1618 sarebbe a 123.85...
Voglio dire che mi sta venendo il sospetto che si possano vedere sfiorati i 124 se va sopra sono alla frutta.
Anche perchè è finita la 3 da 117.34...?
Io credo di sì a 121.06 e da 120.24 faccio partire la 5 finale,ma potrebbe essere anche ancora in corso visto che è ancora dentro ai parametri di max estensione della 3...per chi vuol dare una opinione è gradita...
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
ciao bigpot , a me il dubbio è venuto nel guardare il grafico a candele weekly; mentre sul daily pareva tanto avessero fatto venerdì una bella candela d'inversione supportata da volumi boom , sul weekly invece non sembra proprio un pattern classico d'inversione e anzi la coda della scorsa candela settimanale chiama quasi un ritorno sui massimi se viene negato l'impiccato
la tua view eliottiana è sempre ben gradita qui , visto che quasi tutti ne capiamo niente
ciao bigpot , a me il dubbio è venuto nel guardare il grafico a candele weekly; mentre sul daily pareva tanto avessero fatto venerdì una bella candela d'inversione supportata da volumi boom , sul weekly invece non sembra proprio un pattern classico d'inversione e anzi la coda della scorsa candela settimanale chiama quasi un ritorno sui massimi
se viene negato l'impiccatola tua view eliottiana è sempre ben gradita qui , visto che quasi tutti ne capiamo niente
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Il nonnetto gioca a fare lo gnorri
Usa:Greenspan,senza precedenti calo tassi interesse a lungo
PECHINO (MF-DJ)--Per il presidente della Federal Riserve, Alan Greenspan resta difficile comprendere la continua discesa dei tassi a lungo termine nel corso dell'ultimo anno, nonostante le continue strette monetarie da parte della banca centrale statunitense.
Intervenendo in conference call alla conferenza internazionale di politica monetaria che si sta tenendo a Pechino, Greenspan ha sottolineato come il "mondo economico e finanziario si sta modificando in modi che ancora facciamo fatica a capire completamente". Il numero uno della Fed e' anche intervenuto sullo yuan.
"La Cina avrebbe tutto l'interesse - ha spiegato - ad adottare un tasso di cambio maggiormente flessibile". Sulla stessa lunghezza d'onda anche il presidente della Bce Jean-Claude Trichet che ha sottolineato come sia "interesse della Cina rivalutare la propria moneta".
Usa:Greenspan,senza precedenti calo tassi interesse a lungo
PECHINO (MF-DJ)--Per il presidente della Federal Riserve, Alan Greenspan resta difficile comprendere la continua discesa dei tassi a lungo termine nel corso dell'ultimo anno, nonostante le continue strette monetarie da parte della banca centrale statunitense.
Intervenendo in conference call alla conferenza internazionale di politica monetaria che si sta tenendo a Pechino, Greenspan ha sottolineato come il "mondo economico e finanziario si sta modificando in modi che ancora facciamo fatica a capire completamente". Il numero uno della Fed e' anche intervenuto sullo yuan.
"La Cina avrebbe tutto l'interesse - ha spiegato - ad adottare un tasso di cambio maggiormente flessibile". Sulla stessa lunghezza d'onda anche il presidente della Bce Jean-Claude Trichet che ha sottolineato come sia "interesse della Cina rivalutare la propria moneta".
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Greenspan comments push up U.S. Treasury prices
By Naomi Tajitsu
TOKYO, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices firmed in Asia on Tuesday after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said "new forces" were likely behind low, long-term global interest rates and the situation was unlikely to change anytime soon.
Speaking to a bankers' conference in Beijing via a video link, Greenspan also said it was "credible" that low long-term rates could signal economic softness, although rates have not necessarily risen on signs of economic strength.
While many market participants were uncertain what to make of Greenspan's remarks, much of which reiterated what he has said in recent months, some dealers took them as a cue to buy debt.
"The market likes the fact that Greenspan is saying that low rates may not be linked to economic fundamentals and that 'new forces' may be at play," said a dealer in Tokyo.
"The fact that he doesn't know what is driving yields lower is prompting some buying."
The Fed chairman's comments pushed down the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note <US10YT=RR> to around 3.93 percent, from 3.96 percent in New York on Monday.
The 10-year yield was hovering within reach of a 14-month low under 3.84 percent touched on Friday after disappointing U.S. economic data.
Two-year paper <US2YT=RR> was yielding around 3.54 percent, compared with 3.58 percent.
Asian dealers were happy to pick up Treasuries on Greenspan's comments, which did not address recent data pointing to softness in the U.S. economy.
Traders said the market was anticipating more comments from Greenspan on Thursday, when he testifies on the U.S. economic outlook before a congressional panel.
One trader said he was expecting a rehash of Tuesday's comments but saw a possibility that the Fed chief could backtrack on his Beijing statements if yields fall excessively during the New York session later in the day.
Weak U.S. economic figures have been fuelling speculation about whether the Fed could soon put the brakes on its monetary tightening campaign.
The Fed's policy-setting committee meets at the end of the month, when it is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.
Some market participants consider recent weak economic data, particularly from the manufacturing and labour sectors, as signs that U.S. rates may not rise to 4 percent by the end of the calendar year, as many economists had projected earlier this year.
By Naomi Tajitsu
TOKYO, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices firmed in Asia on Tuesday after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said "new forces" were likely behind low, long-term global interest rates and the situation was unlikely to change anytime soon.
Speaking to a bankers' conference in Beijing via a video link, Greenspan also said it was "credible" that low long-term rates could signal economic softness, although rates have not necessarily risen on signs of economic strength.
While many market participants were uncertain what to make of Greenspan's remarks, much of which reiterated what he has said in recent months, some dealers took them as a cue to buy debt.
"The market likes the fact that Greenspan is saying that low rates may not be linked to economic fundamentals and that 'new forces' may be at play," said a dealer in Tokyo.
"The fact that he doesn't know what is driving yields lower is prompting some buying."
The Fed chairman's comments pushed down the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note <US10YT=RR> to around 3.93 percent, from 3.96 percent in New York on Monday.
The 10-year yield was hovering within reach of a 14-month low under 3.84 percent touched on Friday after disappointing U.S. economic data.
Two-year paper <US2YT=RR> was yielding around 3.54 percent, compared with 3.58 percent.
Asian dealers were happy to pick up Treasuries on Greenspan's comments, which did not address recent data pointing to softness in the U.S. economy.
Traders said the market was anticipating more comments from Greenspan on Thursday, when he testifies on the U.S. economic outlook before a congressional panel.
One trader said he was expecting a rehash of Tuesday's comments but saw a possibility that the Fed chief could backtrack on his Beijing statements if yields fall excessively during the New York session later in the day.
Weak U.S. economic figures have been fuelling speculation about whether the Fed could soon put the brakes on its monetary tightening campaign.
The Fed's policy-setting committee meets at the end of the month, when it is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.
Some market participants consider recent weak economic data, particularly from the manufacturing and labour sectors, as signs that U.S. rates may not rise to 4 percent by the end of the calendar year, as many economists had projected earlier this year.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Treasuries Gain; Greenspan Doesn't Expect Change in Yields Soon
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasuries advanced after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled he doesn't expect yields to change soon after their ``unusual'' slide to near a 14-month low.
Yields have been falling partly because of global investors buying U.S. debt, Greenspan said via satellite to an International Monetary Conference today in Beijing. Asked if there would be any change soon, he said: ``I would think not.'' It's a ``credible notion'' that bond markets are signaling ``economic weakness,'' he also said.
``He's suggesting he's not expecting to see a change in yields anytime soon and that's great'' for bulls on Treasuries, said Andrew Roberts, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s chief European fixed- income strategist in London. ``The market is coming to terms with the fact that inflation is going to stay tame.''
The 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 rose 4/32, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 17/32 at 10:11 a.m. in London, according to Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.93 percent.
Merrill's interest-rate strategy committee, of which Roberts is a member, cut its forecast for Treasury yields last month. The group now expects the 10-year note to yield 3.8 percent at year- end, down from a previous estimate of 4.4 percent. Pension fund buying is helping depress yields, Roberts said.
`Given His Consent'
The 10-year yield touched 3.8 percent on June 3, the lowest since March last year, after the Labor Department said the economy added 78,000 workers last month, the fewest since August 2003. The increase in payrolls was less than half the number expected and followed a gain of 274,000 jobs in April.
Greenspan on June 9 will testify to Congress on the economy. During his last testimony in February, he called 10-year yields near 4 percent a ``conundrum.''
``It's as if Greenspan has given his consent for the level on yields on long-term bonds,'' said John Davies, a bond strategist in London at WestLB AG. ``He seems to have softened his stance and that's given the go ahead for some people to buy at these levels.''
Central bank purchases of U.S. government securities can't fully explain the ``unusual'' behavior of Treasury yields, Greenspan said in remarks to the conference. Bond rates are falling ``virtually everywhere,'' he said.
Credit Suisse First Boston predicts that increasing oil prices, rising adjustable mortgage rates and slower income growth will push the 10-year yield down to 3.6 percent.
Consumers this quarter will have $36 billion to $46 billion less to spend because of higher energy and mortgage payments, Dominic Konstam, head of interest rate research at CSFB in New York, said in an interview yesterday. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy.
`Without Precedent'
The 10-year yield has slumped from this year's high of 4.69 percent reached on March 23. At the same time, the Fed has been raising the benchmark interest rate. It has raised rates in quarter-point increments eight times since June, most recently on May 3.
``The pronounced decline in U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates over the past year, despite a 200-basis-point increase in our federal funds rate, is clearly without precedent,'' Greenspan said today.
Greenspan said the decline in long-term yields may result in the rates falling below those of short-term yields. The last time 10-year notes yielded less than two-year notes was in December 2000. The economy shrank the following quarter.
The 10-year yield was 38 basis points higher than two-year yields today, the smallest gap since February 2001.
`We Sold'
Gains in Treasuries may be tempered as some investors said they sold the notes because yields are near the lowest in more than a year.
``We sold some 10-year Treasuries over the past few days,'' said Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds in Tokyo at Sompo Japan Asset Management, a unit of the nation's third- largest casualty insurer. ``We are not bullish on the outlook of Treasury notes at all.''
Treasuries also rose after Greenspan said hedge funds, loosely regulated pools of capital, may be over-reaching as they seek higher returns. Speculation of hedge fund losses have spurred buying of Treasuries in the past month as investors sought the safety of government debt.
``Greenspan thinks traders are taking too much risk and is not happy with long term rates,'' said Andrew Brenner, head of global fixed income in New York at Investec U.S. Inc.
Hedge funds dropped an average 1.75 percent in April, their worst monthly performance since September 2002, according to Hennessee Group LLC, a New York-based consulting firm. World hedge-fund performance was little changed in May, the Financial Times said today, citing Merrill's global hedge fund monitor.
The funds added $24.6 billion in the first quarter, according to a report last month by Tremont Capital Management Inc., following inflows of $123 billion last year. Hedge fund assets total more than $1 trillion.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jake Lee at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 7, 2005 05:16 EDT
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasuries advanced after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled he doesn't expect yields to change soon after their ``unusual'' slide to near a 14-month low.
Yields have been falling partly because of global investors buying U.S. debt, Greenspan said via satellite to an International Monetary Conference today in Beijing. Asked if there would be any change soon, he said: ``I would think not.'' It's a ``credible notion'' that bond markets are signaling ``economic weakness,'' he also said.
``He's suggesting he's not expecting to see a change in yields anytime soon and that's great'' for bulls on Treasuries, said Andrew Roberts, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s chief European fixed- income strategist in London. ``The market is coming to terms with the fact that inflation is going to stay tame.''
The 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 rose 4/32, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 17/32 at 10:11 a.m. in London, according to Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.93 percent.
Merrill's interest-rate strategy committee, of which Roberts is a member, cut its forecast for Treasury yields last month. The group now expects the 10-year note to yield 3.8 percent at year- end, down from a previous estimate of 4.4 percent. Pension fund buying is helping depress yields, Roberts said.
`Given His Consent'
The 10-year yield touched 3.8 percent on June 3, the lowest since March last year, after the Labor Department said the economy added 78,000 workers last month, the fewest since August 2003. The increase in payrolls was less than half the number expected and followed a gain of 274,000 jobs in April.
Greenspan on June 9 will testify to Congress on the economy. During his last testimony in February, he called 10-year yields near 4 percent a ``conundrum.''
``It's as if Greenspan has given his consent for the level on yields on long-term bonds,'' said John Davies, a bond strategist in London at WestLB AG. ``He seems to have softened his stance and that's given the go ahead for some people to buy at these levels.''
Central bank purchases of U.S. government securities can't fully explain the ``unusual'' behavior of Treasury yields, Greenspan said in remarks to the conference. Bond rates are falling ``virtually everywhere,'' he said.
Credit Suisse First Boston predicts that increasing oil prices, rising adjustable mortgage rates and slower income growth will push the 10-year yield down to 3.6 percent.
Consumers this quarter will have $36 billion to $46 billion less to spend because of higher energy and mortgage payments, Dominic Konstam, head of interest rate research at CSFB in New York, said in an interview yesterday. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy.
`Without Precedent'
The 10-year yield has slumped from this year's high of 4.69 percent reached on March 23. At the same time, the Fed has been raising the benchmark interest rate. It has raised rates in quarter-point increments eight times since June, most recently on May 3.
``The pronounced decline in U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates over the past year, despite a 200-basis-point increase in our federal funds rate, is clearly without precedent,'' Greenspan said today.
Greenspan said the decline in long-term yields may result in the rates falling below those of short-term yields. The last time 10-year notes yielded less than two-year notes was in December 2000. The economy shrank the following quarter.
The 10-year yield was 38 basis points higher than two-year yields today, the smallest gap since February 2001.
`We Sold'
Gains in Treasuries may be tempered as some investors said they sold the notes because yields are near the lowest in more than a year.
``We sold some 10-year Treasuries over the past few days,'' said Satoshi Asai, who helps oversee $1 billion of bonds in Tokyo at Sompo Japan Asset Management, a unit of the nation's third- largest casualty insurer. ``We are not bullish on the outlook of Treasury notes at all.''
Treasuries also rose after Greenspan said hedge funds, loosely regulated pools of capital, may be over-reaching as they seek higher returns. Speculation of hedge fund losses have spurred buying of Treasuries in the past month as investors sought the safety of government debt.
``Greenspan thinks traders are taking too much risk and is not happy with long term rates,'' said Andrew Brenner, head of global fixed income in New York at Investec U.S. Inc.
Hedge funds dropped an average 1.75 percent in April, their worst monthly performance since September 2002, according to Hennessee Group LLC, a New York-based consulting firm. World hedge-fund performance was little changed in May, the Financial Times said today, citing Merrill's global hedge fund monitor.
The funds added $24.6 billion in the first quarter, according to a report last month by Tremont Capital Management Inc., following inflows of $123 billion last year. Hedge fund assets total more than $1 trillion.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jake Lee at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 7, 2005 05:16 EDT