si incominciano a formulare le prime ipotesi ditro
tra le altre si pensa ci sia stato un hedge anticipato sulla montagna di carta di corporate bonds che invaderà il mercato le prossime settimane ( circa 35-40billion$), inoltre ocio che venerdì ci sono i famigerati payrolls e chissà se qualcuno non sappia già come tradizione
US Treasuries swept away by speculative selling
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices tumbled on Monday as a sudden wave of speculative selling swamped major chart levels, triggering added technical sales.
Traders reported particularly heavy selling of the 10-year note <US10YT=RR> from leveraged funds, sending it down 25/32 in price. Its yield jumped to 4.34 percent from 4.24 percent late Friday, breaking above the 4.28/4.30 percent barrier for the first time since early August.
"The market started steady enough, but then a wave of selling came through the futures pit and swept prices lower," said one trader at a primary dealer. "Doesn't seem to be any news behind it, rather a leveraged speculator trying to ambush a sleepy market and break 4.28 (percent)," he said.
Analysts noted 4.28 percent had been the ceiling for yields for the last three months and the break opened the way for a retracement to at least 4.41 percent.
The rest of the Treasury curve followed, with the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> dropping 1-8/32 in price, lifting yields to 4.97 percent from 4.89 percent.
Shorter-dated debt suffered less, suggesting some investors might be taking profits on curve-flattening trades, which have been all the rage in recent weeks.
Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> only dipped 1/32 in price, nudging their yield up to 3.06 percent from 3.03 percent on Friday. The two-year had sharply underperformed the market recently as investors bet spreads between short- and long-term yields would continue to narrow.
In contrast, the gap between two- and 10-year yields widened 6 basis points to 125 basis points early Monday.
In the belly of the curve, the five-year note <US5YT=RR> lost 8/32, taking yields to 3.69 percent from 3.64 percent.
The sell-off took many traders by surprise as they had thought funds would need to buy to match a large extension in month-end index benchmarks.
"The dealer community was long in anticipation of the usual month-end demand and had to exit in a hurry. Painful start to the week," added the trader.
Others reported rate-lock selling as dealers hedged what is expected to be a heavy slate of corporate issuance in the next couple of weeks. Rumors are that around $35 billion to $40 billion in corporate paper might be issued this week and traders often hedge such issues by selling Treasuries.
Further pressure was added by a rally in global stocks and U.S. equity futures <NDZ4>. This was encouraged by retailer reports of strong sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, which may bode well for consumption in the month and the quarter.
Indeed, traders assume much of the U.S. economic data due this week will be upbeat enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates for a fifth time this year when it meets on Dec. 14.
The major release of the week is November payrolls report on Friday, and analysts are looking for a healthy rise of around 180,000 jobs.
