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Invece la Cina è sempre forte..... decoupling Cinese o economia surriscaldata?
China Fixed-Asset Investment Grew 25.5% Through April (Update5)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth in spending on factories and real estate held above last year's pace in the first four months of 2007, underscoring the central bank's failure to slow the economy after three interest-rate increases.
Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 25.5 percent to 2.26 trillion yuan ($294 billion) through April, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That compares with 24.5 percent in all of 2006 and beats the 25.3 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Spending fueled by an export boom has hindered government efforts to prevent the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating. Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday pledged to make the yuan more flexible and reduce trade imbalances, saying excessive liquidity is causing ``problems'' for China's economy.
``Across the board, the economy has been accelerating for a few months, fueled by a jump in new loans which is getting out of control,'' said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong. ``The central bank hasn't done enough -- but monetary policy does take some time to penetrate into different corners of the economy.''
Tao expects three more interest-rate increases this year. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 6.39 percent.
The yield on a benchmark five-year government bond rose 0.07 percentage point to 3.33 percent after the announcement. The price of the 3.18 percent security due April 2012 fell 0.33, or 3.3 yuan per 1,000 yuan face amount, to 99.33. Yields move inversely to prices.
New Projects
The yuan rose 0.06 percent today to 7.6773 per dollar as of 2:51 p.m. in Shanghai, its second daily gain, and within 0.1 percent of its highest since a dollar-peg was scrapped almost two years ago.
``As China has mentioned before, we are gradually moving toward a more flexible managed floating regime based on supply and demand for the currency,'' central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a conference in Shanghai today. ``In addition to reserve ratios and interest rates, we may use other monetary policies to maintain economic stability.''
China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from 10.4 percent in the previous three months. The government is concerned that excess investment will lead to manufacturing overcapacity, unemployment and bad loans if the economy suddenly slows.
New investment projects rose 2,121 to 51,683 in the first four months, the statistics bureau said. That's the first increase since November. China's factory and property spending in the first four months was more than the value of a year's economic output by Denmark.
China Oriental Group
Banks extended 1.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the first four months, more than half the total for the whole of last year. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 17.1 percent in April, exceeding the central bank's 16 percent target for 2007 for a third month.
China Oriental Group Co., a Chinese steelmaker, last week said one of its units is building a 760 million yuan rolling plant to make H-beams to meet rising demand for the products used for construction.
Investment in industries making non-ferrous metals rose 47 percent in the first four months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. Real-estate spending jumped 27 percent. Urban fixed-asset investment grew 29.6 percent in the first four months of last year.
`Still Upbeat'
China's trade surplus for the first four months widened to $63.3 billion, 88 percent more than a year earlier. Industrial companies' profits jumped 44 percent in the first two months, swelling investment coffers because state businesses retain their profits. A booming stock market is another source of cash.
``Businesses are still upbeat on the prospects for the economy and tending to increase investment because of abundant liquidity,'' said Tomo Kinoshita, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. He expects the central bank to raise interest rates in the third quarter to curb the money supply.
The People's Bank of China has raised rates three times from April last year, as well as increasing the amount of money lenders must set aside as reserves seven times.
``We are not so worried about 11 percent growth,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``The concern is always about the structural imbalance.''
The government needs to boost consumption so the economy relies less on exports and investment, Huang said.
Retail sales rose 15.5 percent in April from a year earlier, lagging behind export growth of 26.8 percent.
Wen's Task Force
Besides monetary policy, the government is using administrative measures to try to cool investment, such as minimum prices for land for industrial developments from Jan. 1.
Premier Wen Jiabao will lead a task force to cut energy consumption and emissions.
China's government reached agreements with Beijing and nine provinces for a plan to shut 35 million metric tons of obsolete steel capacity this year, the National Development and Reform Commission said this week.
Yunnan Tin Co., the world's top maker of the metal, last week said it will sell 650 million yuan of convertible bonds to expand mines and processing plants.
Industrial production rose 17.4 percent in April from a year earlier. Producer prices climbed 2.9 percent, the fastest pace in three months. Consumer-price inflation held above the benchmark one-year deposit rate for a third month.
The People's Bank of China will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth, using reserve requirements and open market operations as tools, it said in a quarterly monetary policy report published last week.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 07:52 EDT
China Fixed-Asset Investment Grew 25.5% Through April (Update5)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth in spending on factories and real estate held above last year's pace in the first four months of 2007, underscoring the central bank's failure to slow the economy after three interest-rate increases.
Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 25.5 percent to 2.26 trillion yuan ($294 billion) through April, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That compares with 24.5 percent in all of 2006 and beats the 25.3 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Spending fueled by an export boom has hindered government efforts to prevent the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating. Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday pledged to make the yuan more flexible and reduce trade imbalances, saying excessive liquidity is causing ``problems'' for China's economy.
``Across the board, the economy has been accelerating for a few months, fueled by a jump in new loans which is getting out of control,'' said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong. ``The central bank hasn't done enough -- but monetary policy does take some time to penetrate into different corners of the economy.''
Tao expects three more interest-rate increases this year. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 6.39 percent.
The yield on a benchmark five-year government bond rose 0.07 percentage point to 3.33 percent after the announcement. The price of the 3.18 percent security due April 2012 fell 0.33, or 3.3 yuan per 1,000 yuan face amount, to 99.33. Yields move inversely to prices.
New Projects
The yuan rose 0.06 percent today to 7.6773 per dollar as of 2:51 p.m. in Shanghai, its second daily gain, and within 0.1 percent of its highest since a dollar-peg was scrapped almost two years ago.
``As China has mentioned before, we are gradually moving toward a more flexible managed floating regime based on supply and demand for the currency,'' central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a conference in Shanghai today. ``In addition to reserve ratios and interest rates, we may use other monetary policies to maintain economic stability.''
China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter, accelerating from 10.4 percent in the previous three months. The government is concerned that excess investment will lead to manufacturing overcapacity, unemployment and bad loans if the economy suddenly slows.
New investment projects rose 2,121 to 51,683 in the first four months, the statistics bureau said. That's the first increase since November. China's factory and property spending in the first four months was more than the value of a year's economic output by Denmark.
China Oriental Group
Banks extended 1.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the first four months, more than half the total for the whole of last year. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 17.1 percent in April, exceeding the central bank's 16 percent target for 2007 for a third month.
China Oriental Group Co., a Chinese steelmaker, last week said one of its units is building a 760 million yuan rolling plant to make H-beams to meet rising demand for the products used for construction.
Investment in industries making non-ferrous metals rose 47 percent in the first four months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. Real-estate spending jumped 27 percent. Urban fixed-asset investment grew 29.6 percent in the first four months of last year.
`Still Upbeat'
China's trade surplus for the first four months widened to $63.3 billion, 88 percent more than a year earlier. Industrial companies' profits jumped 44 percent in the first two months, swelling investment coffers because state businesses retain their profits. A booming stock market is another source of cash.
``Businesses are still upbeat on the prospects for the economy and tending to increase investment because of abundant liquidity,'' said Tomo Kinoshita, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. He expects the central bank to raise interest rates in the third quarter to curb the money supply.
The People's Bank of China has raised rates three times from April last year, as well as increasing the amount of money lenders must set aside as reserves seven times.
``We are not so worried about 11 percent growth,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``The concern is always about the structural imbalance.''
The government needs to boost consumption so the economy relies less on exports and investment, Huang said.
Retail sales rose 15.5 percent in April from a year earlier, lagging behind export growth of 26.8 percent.
Wen's Task Force
Besides monetary policy, the government is using administrative measures to try to cool investment, such as minimum prices for land for industrial developments from Jan. 1.
Premier Wen Jiabao will lead a task force to cut energy consumption and emissions.
China's government reached agreements with Beijing and nine provinces for a plan to shut 35 million metric tons of obsolete steel capacity this year, the National Development and Reform Commission said this week.
Yunnan Tin Co., the world's top maker of the metal, last week said it will sell 650 million yuan of convertible bonds to expand mines and processing plants.
Industrial production rose 17.4 percent in April from a year earlier. Producer prices climbed 2.9 percent, the fastest pace in three months. Consumer-price inflation held above the benchmark one-year deposit rate for a third month.
The People's Bank of China will continue ``stable'' monetary policy, strengthen liquidity control and guide ``adequate'' loan growth, using reserve requirements and open market operations as tools, it said in a quarterly monetary policy report published last week.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 07:52 EDT
partito il gran rialzo? già 50 punti range stox...con rottura dei 4422 max a 4430...uscita qualche news?... 
