Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
ditropan ha scritto:Benzina sui massimi storici ... lo short scatta di rigore !!!
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1179411475azz1.jpg
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1179411504azz2.jpg
niet nun mi sento pronto...ho il ciclo...
al prossimo giro..per adesso sempre flat di indici....e che quazzo...intradabile lo stox
f4f
翠鸟科
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Economia messicana in rallentamento.... sembra effetto USA...
Mexican 1st-Quarter GDP Growth Slows to 2.6 Percent (Update1)
By Patrick Harrington
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the first quarter as construction fell off and automobile output plunged on slumping U.S. demand.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of a country's output in goods and services, grew 2.6 percent from a year earlier, the government reported. Economists had estimated growth at 2.7 percent, according to the median of 18 analysts.
A growth rate of less than 3 percent suggests Mexico is failing to reduce dependence on exports to the U.S., the destination for about 80 percent of the country's sales abroad. Last year's 4.8 percent growth, Mexico's fastest in six years, was driven by strong U.S. demand, while the weakening economy last quarter similarly tracked the U.S. slowdown.
``U.S. import demand has shown a pretty severe downturn at the beginning of this year,'' Gray Newman, chief Latin America economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a telephone interview before today's report. ``Mexico will be hit.''
U.S. imports from Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, rose 2.7 percent this year through March, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. For 2006, U.S. Mexican imports rose 16.5 percent.
Several developments spurred a surge in growth last year.
Carmakers such as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG introduced new models and moved production to Mexico to cut costs, spurring a 23 percent jump in output. During the first quarter of this year, production fell 12 percent from 2006, according to the country's automobile makers association.
Industrial Production
Construction and infrastructure projects, which surged during last year's election season, have slipped. After rising 6.9 percent in 2006, construction fell 0.7 percent in February and rose 1 percent in March, heightening concern domestic growth can't offset a U.S. slowdown.
``We are definitely seeing a deceleration compared with the last quarter of 2006,'' Jose Luis Guerrero Alvarez, chief executive officer of Mexico's largest construction company, Empresas ICA SA, said in a telephone interview. ``This is typical of the start of a new administration. Then they get organized and come up with a lot of projects.''
Mexico's industrial production rose 0.2 percent in March, the fourth straight month of less than 2 percent growth, after remaining unchanged in February.
Revision, Rates
On Feb. 8 Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said Mexico's economy was ``doing much better than we anticipated.'' April 30 he reversed course and revised down the Finance Ministry's economic growth estimate for 2007 to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent, citing a cooling U.S. economy.
Carstens also criticized the central bank for raising interest rates last month ``prematurely'' at a time of slowing growth. Mexican economy minister Eduardo Sojo backed Carstens in a May 15 interview in Paris.
``If they tighten too much they could compound the weakening of the economy and then they will have to reverse course,'' said John Welch, a senior Latin America economist with Lehman Brothers in New York in a telephone interview.
Since the central bank's decision economists such as Morgan Stanley's Newman and BNP Paribas's Rafael de la Fuente have changed their forecasts to predict the central bank will raise rates again this year to 7.50 percent as inflation spikes in June or July.
The central bank expects inflation to fall to between 3.5 and 4 percent by the end of the year.
Popularity
So far, the slowing economy hasn't hurt the popularity of President Felipe Calderon, who took office in December after winning the election by less than a percentage point. His order for a military crackdown on drug traffickers helped boost his approval rating by 10 percentage points this year to 68 percent at the end of April, according to a poll published in El Universal Newspaper May 9.
The nationwide poll of 1,500 people taken between April 26 and May 1 has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.
Growth may pick up later this year.
Infrastructure spending is likely to increase in late 2007 and early 2008, pushing construction output back into the range of 6 percent or 7 percent, ICA's Guerrero said.
After falling in the first quarter, automobile output rose 11 percent in April, hinting at a recovery. And U.S. industrial output rose 0.7 percent in April following a 0.3 decline in March, a government report showed.
To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Harrington in Mexico City at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 16:20 EDT
Mexican 1st-Quarter GDP Growth Slows to 2.6 Percent (Update1)
By Patrick Harrington
May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the first quarter as construction fell off and automobile output plunged on slumping U.S. demand.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of a country's output in goods and services, grew 2.6 percent from a year earlier, the government reported. Economists had estimated growth at 2.7 percent, according to the median of 18 analysts.
A growth rate of less than 3 percent suggests Mexico is failing to reduce dependence on exports to the U.S., the destination for about 80 percent of the country's sales abroad. Last year's 4.8 percent growth, Mexico's fastest in six years, was driven by strong U.S. demand, while the weakening economy last quarter similarly tracked the U.S. slowdown.
``U.S. import demand has shown a pretty severe downturn at the beginning of this year,'' Gray Newman, chief Latin America economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a telephone interview before today's report. ``Mexico will be hit.''
U.S. imports from Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, rose 2.7 percent this year through March, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. For 2006, U.S. Mexican imports rose 16.5 percent.
Several developments spurred a surge in growth last year.
Carmakers such as Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG introduced new models and moved production to Mexico to cut costs, spurring a 23 percent jump in output. During the first quarter of this year, production fell 12 percent from 2006, according to the country's automobile makers association.
Industrial Production
Construction and infrastructure projects, which surged during last year's election season, have slipped. After rising 6.9 percent in 2006, construction fell 0.7 percent in February and rose 1 percent in March, heightening concern domestic growth can't offset a U.S. slowdown.
``We are definitely seeing a deceleration compared with the last quarter of 2006,'' Jose Luis Guerrero Alvarez, chief executive officer of Mexico's largest construction company, Empresas ICA SA, said in a telephone interview. ``This is typical of the start of a new administration. Then they get organized and come up with a lot of projects.''
Mexico's industrial production rose 0.2 percent in March, the fourth straight month of less than 2 percent growth, after remaining unchanged in February.
Revision, Rates
On Feb. 8 Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said Mexico's economy was ``doing much better than we anticipated.'' April 30 he reversed course and revised down the Finance Ministry's economic growth estimate for 2007 to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent, citing a cooling U.S. economy.
Carstens also criticized the central bank for raising interest rates last month ``prematurely'' at a time of slowing growth. Mexican economy minister Eduardo Sojo backed Carstens in a May 15 interview in Paris.
``If they tighten too much they could compound the weakening of the economy and then they will have to reverse course,'' said John Welch, a senior Latin America economist with Lehman Brothers in New York in a telephone interview.
Since the central bank's decision economists such as Morgan Stanley's Newman and BNP Paribas's Rafael de la Fuente have changed their forecasts to predict the central bank will raise rates again this year to 7.50 percent as inflation spikes in June or July.
The central bank expects inflation to fall to between 3.5 and 4 percent by the end of the year.
Popularity
So far, the slowing economy hasn't hurt the popularity of President Felipe Calderon, who took office in December after winning the election by less than a percentage point. His order for a military crackdown on drug traffickers helped boost his approval rating by 10 percentage points this year to 68 percent at the end of April, according to a poll published in El Universal Newspaper May 9.
The nationwide poll of 1,500 people taken between April 26 and May 1 has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.
Growth may pick up later this year.
Infrastructure spending is likely to increase in late 2007 and early 2008, pushing construction output back into the range of 6 percent or 7 percent, ICA's Guerrero said.
After falling in the first quarter, automobile output rose 11 percent in April, hinting at a recovery. And U.S. industrial output rose 0.7 percent in April following a 0.3 decline in March, a government report showed.
To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Harrington in Mexico City at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 16:20 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Rallentamento anche in Giappone o solo errori dei dati?
Japan's Demand for Services Slides 2.2% From a Record (Update3)
By Jason Clenfield
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for services in Japan slid from a record, signaling consumer spending's contribution to economic growth may lose momentum.
The tertiary index, a gauge of money spent on phone calls, shopping and banking, fell 2.2 percent in March from a month earlier, the trade ministry said today in Tokyo. The drop was the biggest in more than three years, exacerbated by incomplete data, a ministry spokesman said.
``If you take out the distortions, the bottom line is that the demand for services -- consumer demand -- is growing modestly,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Inc.
Consumers, whose spending makes up more than half of the economy, led growth in the first quarter as business investment slowed, the government said yesterday. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said consumer spending is solid, after his policy board kept interest rates at 0.5 percent the same day.
``Consumption is finally strengthening to the point where it can pick up the slack if investment slows,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The shift from business investment to consumer spending is exactly what the Bank of Japan wants.''
The yen was little changed, trading at 121.31 per dollar at 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 121.28 before the report. The tertiary index was expected to fall 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Data Glitch
Today's number was dragged down by an 11 percent drop in demand for communications services and a 4 percent decrease in wholesaling. In both cases, statistical blips exaggerated the declines, according to Masato Hisatake, a director of economic analysis at the ministry.
In communications, late reporting of data on fixed-line phone services meant last year's information had to be used to estimate the March figure, Hisatake said. Changes in accounting rules skewed the ministry's seasonal adjustments to the wholesaling numbers.
The world's second-largest economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the three months ended March 31, half the pace of the previous period. From the fourth quarter, the economy grew 0.6 percent. Consumer spending rose 0.9 percent, gaining for a second quarter, while capital investment unexpectedly fell.
Changing Consumption
Consumption patterns in Japan are becoming more like those in the U.S., where spending on services outweighs purchases of goods by two to one, according to JPMorgan Securities Japan Co. Confidence among large service companies held at a 16-year high in March, the Bank of Japan's most recent survey of business sentiment shows.
From a year earlier, the tertiary index rose for a 43rd consecutive month in March, the trade ministry said. Services made up more than 57 percent of consumer spending in 2006, compared with about 50 percent a decade ago.
This shift will probably accelerate because Japan's aging consumers, who have already outfitted themselves and their homes, are more likely to spend money on travel and dining at restaurants than merchandise, economists say.
Spending on plane tickets, hotels and tours rose 2.6 percent in March, after climbing in each of the previous two months, according to the Japan Association of Travel Agents. Outlays on travel rose at 10 times the pace of retail sales last year, according to association figures.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 23:11 EDT
Japan's Demand for Services Slides 2.2% From a Record (Update3)
By Jason Clenfield
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for services in Japan slid from a record, signaling consumer spending's contribution to economic growth may lose momentum.
The tertiary index, a gauge of money spent on phone calls, shopping and banking, fell 2.2 percent in March from a month earlier, the trade ministry said today in Tokyo. The drop was the biggest in more than three years, exacerbated by incomplete data, a ministry spokesman said.
``If you take out the distortions, the bottom line is that the demand for services -- consumer demand -- is growing modestly,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers Japan Inc.
Consumers, whose spending makes up more than half of the economy, led growth in the first quarter as business investment slowed, the government said yesterday. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said consumer spending is solid, after his policy board kept interest rates at 0.5 percent the same day.
``Consumption is finally strengthening to the point where it can pick up the slack if investment slows,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The shift from business investment to consumer spending is exactly what the Bank of Japan wants.''
The yen was little changed, trading at 121.31 per dollar at 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo compared with 121.28 before the report. The tertiary index was expected to fall 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Data Glitch
Today's number was dragged down by an 11 percent drop in demand for communications services and a 4 percent decrease in wholesaling. In both cases, statistical blips exaggerated the declines, according to Masato Hisatake, a director of economic analysis at the ministry.
In communications, late reporting of data on fixed-line phone services meant last year's information had to be used to estimate the March figure, Hisatake said. Changes in accounting rules skewed the ministry's seasonal adjustments to the wholesaling numbers.
The world's second-largest economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the three months ended March 31, half the pace of the previous period. From the fourth quarter, the economy grew 0.6 percent. Consumer spending rose 0.9 percent, gaining for a second quarter, while capital investment unexpectedly fell.
Changing Consumption
Consumption patterns in Japan are becoming more like those in the U.S., where spending on services outweighs purchases of goods by two to one, according to JPMorgan Securities Japan Co. Confidence among large service companies held at a 16-year high in March, the Bank of Japan's most recent survey of business sentiment shows.
From a year earlier, the tertiary index rose for a 43rd consecutive month in March, the trade ministry said. Services made up more than 57 percent of consumer spending in 2006, compared with about 50 percent a decade ago.
This shift will probably accelerate because Japan's aging consumers, who have already outfitted themselves and their homes, are more likely to spend money on travel and dining at restaurants than merchandise, economists say.
Spending on plane tickets, hotels and tours rose 2.6 percent in March, after climbing in each of the previous two months, according to the Japan Association of Travel Agents. Outlays on travel rose at 10 times the pace of retail sales last year, according to association figures.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: May 17, 2007 23:11 EDT
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