Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
gipa69 ha scritto:Bonjour a tout le monde
Purtroppo Leo si ritrae alle mie avances indi per cui mi trovo costretto a ripostare in questo mondo di ladri...
I mercati non hanno fatto molta strada ma interessanti fenomeni sono in corso.....
ne riparleremo
gooood morning GipaZ e benturnat'
azzo adesso serve proprio un tuo commento
i mercati sono assai incerti, attendiamo un tuo suggerimento
f4f
翠鸟科
At home after dark
VF(N)41 nighfighter , USS Independence oct 1944
September 12, 1944 saw the introduction of the new F6F-5N’s for VF(N)-41 flying from the deck of USS Independence CVL-23. There were 1,432 of the Night Fighter version built with APS-6 radar housed in a pod attached to the starboard wing. This provided pilots with a radar picture of another aircraft up to 5.5 miles away and a ship up to 20 miles. F6F-5N pilots had to undergo a rigorous 29 weeks of schooling where they would learn how to rely totally on their instruments since they would be flying at night in the dark with no visual reference for navigation or altitude. The Night Fighters were given strict orders that once they located a plane on radar they couldn’t fire a shot until they could get close enough to identify the target as friend or foe. As it turned out most of the F6F-5N’s flew daytime missions with other versions of the F6F. This would allow the radar equipped Hellcats to locate the enemy and guide their group towards them.The top USN Night Fighter ace was Lt. William E. Henry, Executive Officer (XO) of the VF(N)-41 squadron. He was credited with 6.5 nighttime and 4 daytime victories and the last victory for the USN F6F-5N.
VF(N)41 nighfighter , USS Independence oct 1944
September 12, 1944 saw the introduction of the new F6F-5N’s for VF(N)-41 flying from the deck of USS Independence CVL-23. There were 1,432 of the Night Fighter version built with APS-6 radar housed in a pod attached to the starboard wing. This provided pilots with a radar picture of another aircraft up to 5.5 miles away and a ship up to 20 miles. F6F-5N pilots had to undergo a rigorous 29 weeks of schooling where they would learn how to rely totally on their instruments since they would be flying at night in the dark with no visual reference for navigation or altitude. The Night Fighters were given strict orders that once they located a plane on radar they couldn’t fire a shot until they could get close enough to identify the target as friend or foe. As it turned out most of the F6F-5N’s flew daytime missions with other versions of the F6F. This would allow the radar equipped Hellcats to locate the enemy and guide their group towards them.The top USN Night Fighter ace was Lt. William E. Henry, Executive Officer (XO) of the VF(N)-41 squadron. He was credited with 6.5 nighttime and 4 daytime victories and the last victory for the USN F6F-5N.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Gold in Inglese perchè non ho tempo di commentare...
Since its June 2006 low, gold has seen four higher reaction lows. And interestingly, gold's last reaction was slower than its two predecessors. The last two rally highs have also been higher than the preceding high, although this is less significant within an overall ranging pattern than the higher lows. A close above $700 in coming weeks would clearly reaffirm a bullish bias in what is still a long-term uptrend. Conversely, a close beneath the $640 to $630 region would indicate pattern deterioration.
Interestingly and perhaps significantly, among other precious metals platinum now appears to be in a smaller consolidation pattern near its 2006 accelerated peak. Platinum has generally been the leader for precious metals since at least 2001, so a clear upward break would be very bullish for the white metal and also a favourable commonality signal for gold. Conversely, bullish bets are off if platinum breaks down beneath $1260.
Silver is lagging at present but this is probably less important than platinum's action. I regard silver as high-beta gold, so if gold does create widespread renewed interest by sustaining a move above $700, I would expect a sharp improvement in silver's relative performance.
Returning to gold, I have often emphasised the importance of moves against all currencies, not just the US dollar. In other words, gold will not experience a big upside move until it performs well against currencies such as the euro (a move above €500 would be a start), sterling (£350 would be very significant), Australian dollars (lagging but near important lows), yen (close to another upside breakout) and the renminbi (firming once again). In conclusion, not an inspiring performance yet but gold will probably move quickly once investors around the world are "surprised" by renewed strength, and jump aboard. Subscribers can monitor gold in these and many other currencies in the Library.
The best evidence that gold bullion is nearing the end of its lengthy medium-term correction and consolidation prior to renewed strength is coming from gold share indices. The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index has sprung to life in the last three weeks, clearing lateral resistance in the process. The Amex Gold Bugs Index shows a similar pattern and note the higher reaction lows prior to these gains.
Gold mining shares have a history of leading upside moves in bullion following periods of underperformance and apathy. However once the move is well underway, the metal usually begins to outperform because it is a tangible asset. In contrast, gold mines are wasting assets over the long term; they will probably work lower grade ore and are susceptible to accidents or strikes.
What about central banks? Closet inflationists are never going to like gold but the yellow metal is hardly at provocative levels today. A few central banks continue to sell bullion, often to cover current account deficits and I assume the IMF will sell gold at some future point but possibly not without at least a different administration in the White House. Central bank sales weigh on the market when gold is quiet but are easily offset by investment demand when the yellow metal is back in fashion. Weighing the evidence above, I believe the pendulum of sentiment is poised to commence a swing back in favour of gold.
Since its June 2006 low, gold has seen four higher reaction lows. And interestingly, gold's last reaction was slower than its two predecessors. The last two rally highs have also been higher than the preceding high, although this is less significant within an overall ranging pattern than the higher lows. A close above $700 in coming weeks would clearly reaffirm a bullish bias in what is still a long-term uptrend. Conversely, a close beneath the $640 to $630 region would indicate pattern deterioration.
Interestingly and perhaps significantly, among other precious metals platinum now appears to be in a smaller consolidation pattern near its 2006 accelerated peak. Platinum has generally been the leader for precious metals since at least 2001, so a clear upward break would be very bullish for the white metal and also a favourable commonality signal for gold. Conversely, bullish bets are off if platinum breaks down beneath $1260.
Silver is lagging at present but this is probably less important than platinum's action. I regard silver as high-beta gold, so if gold does create widespread renewed interest by sustaining a move above $700, I would expect a sharp improvement in silver's relative performance.
Returning to gold, I have often emphasised the importance of moves against all currencies, not just the US dollar. In other words, gold will not experience a big upside move until it performs well against currencies such as the euro (a move above €500 would be a start), sterling (£350 would be very significant), Australian dollars (lagging but near important lows), yen (close to another upside breakout) and the renminbi (firming once again). In conclusion, not an inspiring performance yet but gold will probably move quickly once investors around the world are "surprised" by renewed strength, and jump aboard. Subscribers can monitor gold in these and many other currencies in the Library.
The best evidence that gold bullion is nearing the end of its lengthy medium-term correction and consolidation prior to renewed strength is coming from gold share indices. The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index has sprung to life in the last three weeks, clearing lateral resistance in the process. The Amex Gold Bugs Index shows a similar pattern and note the higher reaction lows prior to these gains.
Gold mining shares have a history of leading upside moves in bullion following periods of underperformance and apathy. However once the move is well underway, the metal usually begins to outperform because it is a tangible asset. In contrast, gold mines are wasting assets over the long term; they will probably work lower grade ore and are susceptible to accidents or strikes.
What about central banks? Closet inflationists are never going to like gold but the yellow metal is hardly at provocative levels today. A few central banks continue to sell bullion, often to cover current account deficits and I assume the IMF will sell gold at some future point but possibly not without at least a different administration in the White House. Central bank sales weigh on the market when gold is quiet but are easily offset by investment demand when the yellow metal is back in fashion. Weighing the evidence above, I believe the pendulum of sentiment is poised to commence a swing back in favour of gold.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Sulle gold stocks
Gold Stocks
Gold Stock Scenarios
Every now and then we will present a chart of the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI) showing two or three different projections. We don't do this to hedge our bets; we do it because there are always many possible outcomes and in our efforts to explain what we perceive to be the most probable of these outcomes we've found that it helps to draw a simple picture.
Now is one of those times when it makes sense for us to begin a discussion of the gold sector's prospects with a HUI chart showing divergent potential outcomes. In this case we will discuss two potential outcomes that we'll imaginatively label the "blue scenario" and the "red scenario" because blue and red are the colours of the lines drawn to depict these scenarios on the following chart. The "blue scenario" is based on the premise that a new bull market leg has commenced whereas the "red scenario" is based on the premise that the current rally is occurring within the context of a major correction and will, at best, result in a test of the May-2006 peak during the final quarter of this year.
The most significant recent development has been strength in the major gold stocks relative to gold bullion, which led to an upside breakout in the HUI/gold ratio during the week before last. This relative strength of the stocks is bullish because the stocks typically lead the bullion at important turning points, but, as discussed in last week's Interim Update, it is puzzlingly at odds with some of gold's other trend indicators. This could mean that the HUI/gold ratio is sending an early warning signal of a new bull market leg that will eventually be confirmed by other indicators (the blue scenario), but it could also mean that HUI/gold has signaled the start of a multi-month rally within the context of an on-going correction (the red scenario). In other words, HUI/gold's recent upside breakout is consistent with both of our scenarios.
To be clear, we think the HUI/gold's bullish signal is genuine. In particular, we think that this signal, when considered alongside last week's moves up to intermediate-term resistance by the gold stock indices (beyond intermediate-term resistance in the XAU's case), points towards additional strength in gold stocks over at least the coming 2-4 months. In effect, recent price action all but eliminates any scenario that involves the gold sector commencing a substantial multi-month decline in the near future. However, the recent price action doesn't allow us to form an opinion on which of our two projected outcomes is the more likely because both of these outcomes involve the gold sector trending higher into the final quarter of the year.
At this stage we favour the "red scenario", that is, we favour the outcome that entails a rally into the final quarter of the year followed by a large decline to a May-2008 bottom to complete a 2-year corrective process. Our reasoning revolves around gold's lack of strength relative to oil, industrial metals, the broad stock market and the euro, but also of some concern to us is the recent flattening of the US yield curve (after widening markedly during March-June, the US yield-spread has contracted rapidly over the past four weeks).
The gold sector and the general stock market mania
Over the past three weeks the HUI has zoomed from the bottom to the top of its 7-month trading range in parallel with gold bullion making fairly minor progress in real terms. As we've said, the impressive recent performances of the major gold stocks could be a warning that gold bullion is about to come to life in a big way. There is, however, another possibility.
The other possibility is that the major gold stocks have joined the mania that has engulfed the base-metal and oil equities over the past several months. We use the word "mania" because the price gains of the major commodity-related equities have generally been totally out of proportion to the price gains of the associated commodities.
Gold Stocks
Gold Stock Scenarios
Every now and then we will present a chart of the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI) showing two or three different projections. We don't do this to hedge our bets; we do it because there are always many possible outcomes and in our efforts to explain what we perceive to be the most probable of these outcomes we've found that it helps to draw a simple picture.
Now is one of those times when it makes sense for us to begin a discussion of the gold sector's prospects with a HUI chart showing divergent potential outcomes. In this case we will discuss two potential outcomes that we'll imaginatively label the "blue scenario" and the "red scenario" because blue and red are the colours of the lines drawn to depict these scenarios on the following chart. The "blue scenario" is based on the premise that a new bull market leg has commenced whereas the "red scenario" is based on the premise that the current rally is occurring within the context of a major correction and will, at best, result in a test of the May-2006 peak during the final quarter of this year.
The most significant recent development has been strength in the major gold stocks relative to gold bullion, which led to an upside breakout in the HUI/gold ratio during the week before last. This relative strength of the stocks is bullish because the stocks typically lead the bullion at important turning points, but, as discussed in last week's Interim Update, it is puzzlingly at odds with some of gold's other trend indicators. This could mean that the HUI/gold ratio is sending an early warning signal of a new bull market leg that will eventually be confirmed by other indicators (the blue scenario), but it could also mean that HUI/gold has signaled the start of a multi-month rally within the context of an on-going correction (the red scenario). In other words, HUI/gold's recent upside breakout is consistent with both of our scenarios.
To be clear, we think the HUI/gold's bullish signal is genuine. In particular, we think that this signal, when considered alongside last week's moves up to intermediate-term resistance by the gold stock indices (beyond intermediate-term resistance in the XAU's case), points towards additional strength in gold stocks over at least the coming 2-4 months. In effect, recent price action all but eliminates any scenario that involves the gold sector commencing a substantial multi-month decline in the near future. However, the recent price action doesn't allow us to form an opinion on which of our two projected outcomes is the more likely because both of these outcomes involve the gold sector trending higher into the final quarter of the year.
At this stage we favour the "red scenario", that is, we favour the outcome that entails a rally into the final quarter of the year followed by a large decline to a May-2008 bottom to complete a 2-year corrective process. Our reasoning revolves around gold's lack of strength relative to oil, industrial metals, the broad stock market and the euro, but also of some concern to us is the recent flattening of the US yield curve (after widening markedly during March-June, the US yield-spread has contracted rapidly over the past four weeks).
The gold sector and the general stock market mania
Over the past three weeks the HUI has zoomed from the bottom to the top of its 7-month trading range in parallel with gold bullion making fairly minor progress in real terms. As we've said, the impressive recent performances of the major gold stocks could be a warning that gold bullion is about to come to life in a big way. There is, however, another possibility.
The other possibility is that the major gold stocks have joined the mania that has engulfed the base-metal and oil equities over the past several months. We use the word "mania" because the price gains of the major commodity-related equities have generally been totally out of proportion to the price gains of the associated commodities.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Sul natural gas:
Energy
Natural Gas
The seasonal July low is probably in place for the natural gas (NG) price, although a daily close above $6.80 in the August futures contract is needed to confirm a low. We expect that this month's low will be followed by a multi-week rally and then a drop to another low in September. As noted in a previous commentary, the September low could be above or below the July low with the determining factor likely to be the weather in the US.
In the short-term the NG price will largely be determined by unpredictable changes in the weather and the effects that these changes have on the amount of NG currently in storage (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html), but what's much more important from a longer-term investing perspective is the likely interaction of NG supply and demand over the next 2 years. In this regard, a good article was recently posted by Dan Amoss at http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2007/20070711.html. We strongly recommend that you read the complete article, but here's a taste:
"...beyond the seasonal swings in gas imports from Canada, an important trend is emerging. ...A growing share of Canadian gas production will be consumed by tar sands projects as production is projected to grow by a few million barrels per day over the next decade; this mined substance consumes a great deal of natural gas as it's upgraded into useable fuel.
Furthermore, in its quest to cut down on carbon emissions, the Canadian government is pushing for the replacement of its coal-fired power plants with gas-fired plants. So what remains of Canadian gas resources may eventually be piped to domestic power plants, rather than exported to the U.S.
A final blow to U.S. pipeline imports: Gas supplies will continue to be limited as long as the Canadian rig count remains near the bottom of its five-year range. Last Halloween's decision by the Canadian government to phase out the tax-favored status of energy trusts not only upset scores of income investors; it also dramatically curtailed drilling projects that are vital to sustain oil and gas production -- and exports to the U.S.
So despite the fact that LNG imports have grown to satisfy about 3-5% of U.S. demand, this is no reason to expect gas prices to collapse. In fact, this 3-5% figure will have to double and triple in the coming years to compensate for lower Canadian imports.
Lastly, a look at domestic gas production...shows a flat trend since 2001. This has occurred even as the rig count has soared. So the U.S. will need a healthy, growing domestic drilling rig fleet to avoid shortages in the future..."
The following chart was included in the aforementioned article and clearly illustrates one of the main reasons why the NG supply/demand situation is likely to support a much higher NG price over the coming 2 years. It shows a strong upward trend in the US rig count since 2002 combined with a tailing-off of production; in other words, it shows that more and more NG wells have to be drilled each year in the US just to stop NG production from falling.
Note that it is possible to gain exposure to natural gas futures without venturing into the futures market by purchasing the United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG). This ETF seeks to replicate the performance of natural gas, but like the United States Oil Fund (USO) it will under-perform the commodity during prolonged periods when the natural gas market is in contango (that is, during periods when the nearer futures contracts are priced below the more distant contracts). We don't know if this will be a big issue in the NG market over the next few years (it's possible that the NG market will spend a lot of its time in backwardation, the opposite of contango); we just wanted to point out that oil's relentless contango led to USO under-performing the spot oil price by a wide margin over the past 2.5 years.
Energy
Natural Gas
The seasonal July low is probably in place for the natural gas (NG) price, although a daily close above $6.80 in the August futures contract is needed to confirm a low. We expect that this month's low will be followed by a multi-week rally and then a drop to another low in September. As noted in a previous commentary, the September low could be above or below the July low with the determining factor likely to be the weather in the US.
In the short-term the NG price will largely be determined by unpredictable changes in the weather and the effects that these changes have on the amount of NG currently in storage (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html), but what's much more important from a longer-term investing perspective is the likely interaction of NG supply and demand over the next 2 years. In this regard, a good article was recently posted by Dan Amoss at http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2007/20070711.html. We strongly recommend that you read the complete article, but here's a taste:
"...beyond the seasonal swings in gas imports from Canada, an important trend is emerging. ...A growing share of Canadian gas production will be consumed by tar sands projects as production is projected to grow by a few million barrels per day over the next decade; this mined substance consumes a great deal of natural gas as it's upgraded into useable fuel.
Furthermore, in its quest to cut down on carbon emissions, the Canadian government is pushing for the replacement of its coal-fired power plants with gas-fired plants. So what remains of Canadian gas resources may eventually be piped to domestic power plants, rather than exported to the U.S.
A final blow to U.S. pipeline imports: Gas supplies will continue to be limited as long as the Canadian rig count remains near the bottom of its five-year range. Last Halloween's decision by the Canadian government to phase out the tax-favored status of energy trusts not only upset scores of income investors; it also dramatically curtailed drilling projects that are vital to sustain oil and gas production -- and exports to the U.S.
So despite the fact that LNG imports have grown to satisfy about 3-5% of U.S. demand, this is no reason to expect gas prices to collapse. In fact, this 3-5% figure will have to double and triple in the coming years to compensate for lower Canadian imports.
Lastly, a look at domestic gas production...shows a flat trend since 2001. This has occurred even as the rig count has soared. So the U.S. will need a healthy, growing domestic drilling rig fleet to avoid shortages in the future..."
The following chart was included in the aforementioned article and clearly illustrates one of the main reasons why the NG supply/demand situation is likely to support a much higher NG price over the coming 2 years. It shows a strong upward trend in the US rig count since 2002 combined with a tailing-off of production; in other words, it shows that more and more NG wells have to be drilled each year in the US just to stop NG production from falling.
Note that it is possible to gain exposure to natural gas futures without venturing into the futures market by purchasing the United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG). This ETF seeks to replicate the performance of natural gas, but like the United States Oil Fund (USO) it will under-perform the commodity during prolonged periods when the natural gas market is in contango (that is, during periods when the nearer futures contracts are priced below the more distant contracts). We don't know if this will be a big issue in the NG market over the next few years (it's possible that the NG market will spend a lot of its time in backwardation, the opposite of contango); we just wanted to point out that oil's relentless contango led to USO under-performing the spot oil price by a wide margin over the past 2.5 years.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Sul cotton starei fuori finchè non è chiaro che la fase di consolidamento incominciata da qualche seduta è finito mentre per il succo di arancia il discorso si fa più interessante perchè sembrerebbe vicino al termine del consolidamento con stop sui recenti minimi.
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