Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
ditropan
Forumer storico
Giorno ... qui è tutto estremo !
Pure le valute da carry trade che non mollano una ceppa !
Visto l'insistente forza dell'australiano che dopo essersi fatto 11 figure di rialzo ha pure il coraggio di dimostrare ancora forza .... gli unici livelli che si possono ancora individuare per un confronto con il passato sono :
- gli attuali livelli 8810-8820 di future rispetto a dicembre 1988
- la seconda onda rialzista di febbraio 1989 che ci porta a 8860-8870
... poi più il nulla !!! Praterie verdi e rialzi infiniti !
... in una situazione già di per sè estrema !
Pure le valute da carry trade che non mollano una ceppa !
Visto l'insistente forza dell'australiano che dopo essersi fatto 11 figure di rialzo ha pure il coraggio di dimostrare ancora forza .... gli unici livelli che si possono ancora individuare per un confronto con il passato sono :
- gli attuali livelli 8810-8820 di future rispetto a dicembre 1988
- la seconda onda rialzista di febbraio 1989 che ci porta a 8860-8870
... poi più il nulla !!! Praterie verdi e rialzi infiniti !
... in una situazione già di per sè estrema !
masgui
Forumer storico
masgui ha scritto:VENDIAMOGLIENE...NE'?
bastonata sul gold e silver....sui quali ero al ribasso sul potenziale ritraccio. L'allungo è invece durato più del previsto, oltre i normali movimenti.
sull'azionario internazionale la situazione mi sembra immutata. euro dollaro da shortare...sul medio siamo precisi sulla resistenza. stop 1.3860. appena fatto...
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ING - Prophet
On the kiwi and New Zealand’s unsustainable current account position:
The NZD has rallied so far that the Finance Minister, Michael Cullen, has threatened to invoke emergency powers and revoke the RBNZ’s inflation-fighting mandate. Wednesday is going to be a big test for the RBNZ as to whether it will push ahead with a further 25bp hike in the OCR to 8.25% to kill off inflation, or whether it will hold rates to limit any further NZD strength. While there are no signs of a top in NZD anytime soon, what we do think is worrying is that New Zealand’s net income deficit now comprises around three-quarters of New Zealand’s current account deficit. That means New Zealand is paying out close to NZD1bn per month to service debt. When the carry trade merry-go-round finally comes to a halt, NZD should fall sharply. We continue to like long positions in AUD/NZD.
… there are also some worrying signals from the NZ Balance of Payments data. Undoubtedly investor demand for high yield NZ bonds have been a major factor helping the NZD. However, the little reported flip-side of sustained foreign purchases of NZ debt is the debt servicing costs. These are now quite extreme. The US has a near 6% of GDP current account deficit yet still (somehow) manages to run a balanced income account. NZ runs an 8.5% current account deficit and as Fig 7 shows, three-quarters of this is driven by the income deficit. Fig 8 confirms that the income deficit has been triggered by the surge in investment income outflows to foreign holders of NZ assets, while NZ investment income on foreign assets has remained static.
ABN IMM Report
Looking at the weekly IMM/CFTC statistics, ABN notes that net long, speculative positions in GBP and CAD are at record highs, while the aggregate net short dollar position ‘rose further to $29.3bn, which is the second largest ever in notional terms, second only to a $30.6 position in November 2004. The big difference between now and then is that participation in FX contracts has grown substantially. This week’s aggregate speculative open interest in FX contracts was a new record of $98.6bn.’
Barclays Capital - Global FX Strategy
Discussing the political situation and the yen, Barclays Capital believes the upcoming elections in Japan (on July 29) are becoming increasingly important for the FX market, with major newspapers reporting a strong likelihood that the ruling coalition parties are likely to lose a majority in the Upper House. The bank comments:
Political instability seems inevitable and reform policies are most likely to stall because it will become difficult to pass bills through the Upper House if the LDP loses its majority. There is also a possibility that the BOJ might skip an interest rate hike at the MPM on August 22 and 24, for which the market currently discounts a 60-70% possibility. In addition to the subprime mortgage issue and the negative economic impact of the Niigata earthquake, political instability is likley to make the BOJ reconsider its tightening. We believe that this will be negative for the JPY.
Expecting the carry trade to be more wobbly and USD weakness to persist:
Friday saw the first clear signs of the carry trade being negatively affected by the credit market turmoil. … In the short term, we continue to see the sub-prime and credit concerns as a US, rather then global, issue. As such, we expect broader dollar weakness to remain the key theme in the FX markets this week. With global growth remaining strong, both the carry trade and the strong performance of commodity currencies, the other main FX trends, are likely to persist. However, there is likely to be considerable volatility in the carry trade as the anxiety in the US credit market continues this week amid the CDO crisis, further ratings downgrades and contagion to other credit markets. The carry trade has been closely correlated with equity markets, so there will also be focus on a raft of quarterly earnings results this week, with 181 companies, representing 33.5% of the S&P500 market cap, reporting. While second quarter earnings growth improved to 5.2$ from 4.2$ last week (according to Thomson Financial), the number of companies beating expectations has decreased and the margin by which they have exceeded expectations is also lower. Equities may therefore be more sensitive to the continues unease in credit markets this week.
On the kiwi and New Zealand’s unsustainable current account position:
The NZD has rallied so far that the Finance Minister, Michael Cullen, has threatened to invoke emergency powers and revoke the RBNZ’s inflation-fighting mandate. Wednesday is going to be a big test for the RBNZ as to whether it will push ahead with a further 25bp hike in the OCR to 8.25% to kill off inflation, or whether it will hold rates to limit any further NZD strength. While there are no signs of a top in NZD anytime soon, what we do think is worrying is that New Zealand’s net income deficit now comprises around three-quarters of New Zealand’s current account deficit. That means New Zealand is paying out close to NZD1bn per month to service debt. When the carry trade merry-go-round finally comes to a halt, NZD should fall sharply. We continue to like long positions in AUD/NZD.
… there are also some worrying signals from the NZ Balance of Payments data. Undoubtedly investor demand for high yield NZ bonds have been a major factor helping the NZD. However, the little reported flip-side of sustained foreign purchases of NZ debt is the debt servicing costs. These are now quite extreme. The US has a near 6% of GDP current account deficit yet still (somehow) manages to run a balanced income account. NZ runs an 8.5% current account deficit and as Fig 7 shows, three-quarters of this is driven by the income deficit. Fig 8 confirms that the income deficit has been triggered by the surge in investment income outflows to foreign holders of NZ assets, while NZ investment income on foreign assets has remained static.
ABN IMM Report
Looking at the weekly IMM/CFTC statistics, ABN notes that net long, speculative positions in GBP and CAD are at record highs, while the aggregate net short dollar position ‘rose further to $29.3bn, which is the second largest ever in notional terms, second only to a $30.6 position in November 2004. The big difference between now and then is that participation in FX contracts has grown substantially. This week’s aggregate speculative open interest in FX contracts was a new record of $98.6bn.’
Barclays Capital - Global FX Strategy
Discussing the political situation and the yen, Barclays Capital believes the upcoming elections in Japan (on July 29) are becoming increasingly important for the FX market, with major newspapers reporting a strong likelihood that the ruling coalition parties are likely to lose a majority in the Upper House. The bank comments:
Political instability seems inevitable and reform policies are most likely to stall because it will become difficult to pass bills through the Upper House if the LDP loses its majority. There is also a possibility that the BOJ might skip an interest rate hike at the MPM on August 22 and 24, for which the market currently discounts a 60-70% possibility. In addition to the subprime mortgage issue and the negative economic impact of the Niigata earthquake, political instability is likley to make the BOJ reconsider its tightening. We believe that this will be negative for the JPY.
Expecting the carry trade to be more wobbly and USD weakness to persist:
Friday saw the first clear signs of the carry trade being negatively affected by the credit market turmoil. … In the short term, we continue to see the sub-prime and credit concerns as a US, rather then global, issue. As such, we expect broader dollar weakness to remain the key theme in the FX markets this week. With global growth remaining strong, both the carry trade and the strong performance of commodity currencies, the other main FX trends, are likely to persist. However, there is likely to be considerable volatility in the carry trade as the anxiety in the US credit market continues this week amid the CDO crisis, further ratings downgrades and contagion to other credit markets. The carry trade has been closely correlated with equity markets, so there will also be focus on a raft of quarterly earnings results this week, with 181 companies, representing 33.5% of the S&P500 market cap, reporting. While second quarter earnings growth improved to 5.2$ from 4.2$ last week (according to Thomson Financial), the number of companies beating expectations has decreased and the margin by which they have exceeded expectations is also lower. Equities may therefore be more sensitive to the continues unease in credit markets this week.
quicksilver
Forumer storico
soliti dubbi sull'economia ma spiegati bene e in italiano http://www.trend-online.com/?stran=izbira&p=blog&id=156259
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