Bund, Tbond of the Hot Hand fine del Capitalismo(vm98)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
masgui ha scritto:posso dire una cosa: sul segnale del sp500 del 25/01 cè da giocarsi la casa. Ora se vogliono negare pure questo ... faccino faccino... ma se non si shorta su questi segnali non si shorta più....
solo questo...bella la mia nuova firma eh???
bella la firma
Mark Twain era un grande
sul segnale, non sono così perentorio, il mercato ne fa 100 e ne inventa 1000 ogni giorno
any given sunday, so to speak
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
f4f ha scritto:beh
a oriente quanche cosa accade ... o cade ...
Wolfofitz è conosciuto prevalentemente per essere stato, nel lustro passato, uno degli architetti della politica estera dell'amministrazione di George W. Bush e dell'attacco all'Iraq.
Ma adesso ...
http://www.corriere.it/Primo_Piano/Cronache/2007/01_Gennaio/29/calze.shtml
parlavo dei crossssssss
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Investment Strategy
by Jeffrey Saut
“Slow, Muddle, or Reaccelerate: You Pick It”
“We are mostly stock pickers, [but] I am surprised by the strength of the economy. As far as housing is concerned, the number of people who are employed and have jobs is more important. The consumer has the view that if he’s employed now, he’ll be employed next year. If the person next door to him has a job, he’ll continue to spend.
But a few elements in the economy are different. Where companies once used their cash flow to build plants, they are now outsourcing manufacturing to China and India. When demand turns down, instead of having layoffs in the U.S. and the cyclical elements Fred talked about, the cycles will become more muted. Companies will call their suppliers in Hong Kong and Mumbai and tell them to stop shipping. Because of this, cash flows at U.S. companies are higher than historically, and will stay that way. The beneficiary is the consumer, who benefits from lower-priced imports. The economy this year will continue to muddle along. The stock market will have a correction, but not do much, net, on the year.”
. . . Oscar Schafer, Barron’s Roundtable
“Slow, Muddle, or Reaccelerate: You Pick It” . . . is the title of this report because, as repeatedly stated, “We can’t decide if the economy is going to slow or reaccelerate.” While this conundrum should be clarified over the next few months, our mantra for the new year remains, “The fooler in 2007 might just be that the economy reaccelerates and the Fed, rather than lowering interest rates, either keeps them where they are or actually raises rates.” If interest rates are raised, the question then becomes, “Can earnings grow fast enough to offset the P/E multiple contraction that inevitably occurs under a higher interest rate environment?” This question is not unimportant, for by our method of analyzing earnings, which includes deducting share repurchases and seasonally adjusting them, earnings momentum peaked in 4Q05 at roughly a 20% growth rate and subsequently has slowed to 3Q06’s ramp rate of high single-digits (we don’t have the 4Q06 numbers yet).
While our potential economic reacceleration thesis is driven by a number of conventional metrics, one of the more unconventional metrics is proffered by the out-of-the-box “thinkers” at the brilliant GaveKal organization, which suggests the U.S. economy is morphing from an industrial-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. To wit:
“You have three functions that a company can perform – they can design, manufacture and/or distribute a product. More and more companies in the Western World are deciding that manufacturing that product is capital intensive. It’s labor intensive. It does not generate high returns [on invested capital]. And so they are focusing on the design and distribution – the knowledge portions of that activity. In the environment of the industrial world, economics is all about allocation of scarce resources – land, labor, and capital. In the information world, it’s all about the allocation of an abundant resource – knowledge. So platform companies are really knowledge companies. It’s not so much about the product or the service the company produces. It’s about the way that it goes about orchestrating the production and delivery of that product. Ultimately, the cost of capital for a platform company should go down, because they’re committing less capital to long-term assets. They’re generating higher productivity, which is the real key. The returns on intangible assets – returns on knowledge – are higher than returns on physical capital.”
Interestingly, as more and more companies morph into “platform companies,” there tends to be a build-up of cash on their corporate balance sheet because there is not the need to reinvest said cash in plants and equipment. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the points made by Oscar Schafer in our opening quote and fleshed out by GaveKal. It also explains the boom in private equity as investment banking “types” look to buy out a company using the cash on its own balance sheet, re-leverage that balance sheet, and eventually “spit” the company back out in a public offering (IPO), but that is a discussion for another time.
So how does a company morph into a “platform company?” Hereto the good folks at GaveKal have an illustration using a company covered by a Raymond James analyst, namely 3.9%-yielding Furniture Brands (FBN/$16.54/Strong Buy). As stated by GaveKal:
“There are a couple of very characteristic signs that you can see when a company becomes a platform company. You can look through their financial statements and you can see the shedding of fixed manufacturing assets. And you can then see – hopefully – the productivity enhancements and superior returns that they’re gaining as a function of doing that. So when we look at Furniture Brands, we see a company that in 1998 had over $300 million in net property and plant equipment. Today, they have about $250 million. They’ve radically shed fixed assets. They shut down a lot of factories in North Carolina and [elsewhere in] the U.S., and moved a lot of production to Asia. In 1998 Furniture Brands generated $90 million of free cash flow. Last year [2005], they generated $160 million of free cash flow. That’s largely because cap-ex [capital expenditures] was running at an annual rate of about $50 million in 1998 and now it’s running at an annual rate of about $30 million. So you see the movement and reconstitution of their assets. They’re investing money into intangible capital – investing in brands and in employee training.”
We believe in GaveKal’s “Platform Company” thesis and continue to look for companies playing to this theme. Regrettably, GaveKal (as of yet) does not have a U.S.-based product in which to invest. Hopefully that will change in the new year, for we would like to overweight portfolios along this “Platform Company” theme. However, for our international readers, we suggest exploring GaveKal and its themes.
While strategically we embrace GaveKal’s concepts, on a tactical basis we are not totally convinced the business cycle has yet been repealed. And maybe, just maybe, that is what the stock/bond market began worrying about late last week. Indeed, the downside surprise came last Thursday when, after Wednesday’s upside breakout above their recent reaction highs, the major market indices showed NO upside follow-through and actually closed below their aforementioned previous reaction highs. Our friend Barry Ritholtz termed last Thursday’s action as a “Bull Trap,” and by our definition of bull trap, that may be appropriate. Listen to this definition of a “Bull Trap” from the glossary of StockCharts.com: “Bull Trap: A situation that occurs when prices break above a significant level and generate a buy signal, but suddenly reverse course and negate the buy signal, thus ‘trapping’ the bulls that acted on the signal with losses.” Clearly, if the major market indices “fall away” from last week’s peak into a full-fledged correction (10%+) Barry’s “call” will prove prescient.
Unsurprisingly, concurrent with last week’s stock-swoon was an upside breakout in yields as the 10-year benchmark bond recorded a multi-month “yield yelp” high of 4.9%, causing one Wall Street wag to lament, “Is the fixed income complex telegraphing a re-acceleration for the economy?” As stated, while we are currently not sure about an economic reacceleration, we are sure that the next few months will clarify the situation. Still, the interest rate ratchet, when combined with the “buy signal” we received in early December on the U.S. Dollar Index, “foots” with the stronger than expected economic figures we have seen year-to-date and gives credence to a potential economic reacceleration. Whether these figures are driven by the unseasonably warm weather remains to be seen, but we remain cautious and therefore are adhering to Warren Buffet’s two rules on investing, that being: rule number; 1) Don’t lose money; and, rule number 2) Don’t forget rule number 1!
The call for this week: Year-to-date, the DJIA has gained 24 points, which is not much upside progress for all the bullish banter expressed by the media. Verily, the S&P 500’s intraday high on 12/07/06 was 1418, while its intraday low last Friday was 1417. So despite all the huffing and puffing, the S&P has made very little progress over the past seven weeks. Consequently, it will be interesting, and probably important, to see if the Dow, and the S&P 500, closes up or down for the month of January, consistent with that old stock market axiom, “So goes the month of January, so goes the year.” Still, we pay more attention to the “December Low Indicator” that states, “If the December low is taken out to the downside during the first quarter of the new year – watch out!” For the record, the “December Low” closing price for the DJIA and S&P 500 are 12194.13 and 1396.13, respectively. Also for the record, the Dow, and the S&P 500, have NOT closed below their 50-day moving averages since their July lows. Currently those 50-DMAs are at 12387.53 (DJIA) and 1413.56 (S&P 500). In conclusion, for participants wanting to hedge their portfolios on the downside, the QIDs (QID/53.74) make sense to us, since the NASDAQ is demonstratively weaker than the S&P 500. However, we prefer the idea of buying “call options” on the Volatility Index (VIX/11.13) as an alternative to buying the QIDs, despite the fact that “longing” the VIX has proved to be a losing strategy over the past few months.
by Jeffrey Saut
“Slow, Muddle, or Reaccelerate: You Pick It”
“We are mostly stock pickers, [but] I am surprised by the strength of the economy. As far as housing is concerned, the number of people who are employed and have jobs is more important. The consumer has the view that if he’s employed now, he’ll be employed next year. If the person next door to him has a job, he’ll continue to spend.
But a few elements in the economy are different. Where companies once used their cash flow to build plants, they are now outsourcing manufacturing to China and India. When demand turns down, instead of having layoffs in the U.S. and the cyclical elements Fred talked about, the cycles will become more muted. Companies will call their suppliers in Hong Kong and Mumbai and tell them to stop shipping. Because of this, cash flows at U.S. companies are higher than historically, and will stay that way. The beneficiary is the consumer, who benefits from lower-priced imports. The economy this year will continue to muddle along. The stock market will have a correction, but not do much, net, on the year.”
. . . Oscar Schafer, Barron’s Roundtable
“Slow, Muddle, or Reaccelerate: You Pick It” . . . is the title of this report because, as repeatedly stated, “We can’t decide if the economy is going to slow or reaccelerate.” While this conundrum should be clarified over the next few months, our mantra for the new year remains, “The fooler in 2007 might just be that the economy reaccelerates and the Fed, rather than lowering interest rates, either keeps them where they are or actually raises rates.” If interest rates are raised, the question then becomes, “Can earnings grow fast enough to offset the P/E multiple contraction that inevitably occurs under a higher interest rate environment?” This question is not unimportant, for by our method of analyzing earnings, which includes deducting share repurchases and seasonally adjusting them, earnings momentum peaked in 4Q05 at roughly a 20% growth rate and subsequently has slowed to 3Q06’s ramp rate of high single-digits (we don’t have the 4Q06 numbers yet).
While our potential economic reacceleration thesis is driven by a number of conventional metrics, one of the more unconventional metrics is proffered by the out-of-the-box “thinkers” at the brilliant GaveKal organization, which suggests the U.S. economy is morphing from an industrial-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. To wit:
“You have three functions that a company can perform – they can design, manufacture and/or distribute a product. More and more companies in the Western World are deciding that manufacturing that product is capital intensive. It’s labor intensive. It does not generate high returns [on invested capital]. And so they are focusing on the design and distribution – the knowledge portions of that activity. In the environment of the industrial world, economics is all about allocation of scarce resources – land, labor, and capital. In the information world, it’s all about the allocation of an abundant resource – knowledge. So platform companies are really knowledge companies. It’s not so much about the product or the service the company produces. It’s about the way that it goes about orchestrating the production and delivery of that product. Ultimately, the cost of capital for a platform company should go down, because they’re committing less capital to long-term assets. They’re generating higher productivity, which is the real key. The returns on intangible assets – returns on knowledge – are higher than returns on physical capital.”
Interestingly, as more and more companies morph into “platform companies,” there tends to be a build-up of cash on their corporate balance sheet because there is not the need to reinvest said cash in plants and equipment. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the points made by Oscar Schafer in our opening quote and fleshed out by GaveKal. It also explains the boom in private equity as investment banking “types” look to buy out a company using the cash on its own balance sheet, re-leverage that balance sheet, and eventually “spit” the company back out in a public offering (IPO), but that is a discussion for another time.
So how does a company morph into a “platform company?” Hereto the good folks at GaveKal have an illustration using a company covered by a Raymond James analyst, namely 3.9%-yielding Furniture Brands (FBN/$16.54/Strong Buy). As stated by GaveKal:
“There are a couple of very characteristic signs that you can see when a company becomes a platform company. You can look through their financial statements and you can see the shedding of fixed manufacturing assets. And you can then see – hopefully – the productivity enhancements and superior returns that they’re gaining as a function of doing that. So when we look at Furniture Brands, we see a company that in 1998 had over $300 million in net property and plant equipment. Today, they have about $250 million. They’ve radically shed fixed assets. They shut down a lot of factories in North Carolina and [elsewhere in] the U.S., and moved a lot of production to Asia. In 1998 Furniture Brands generated $90 million of free cash flow. Last year [2005], they generated $160 million of free cash flow. That’s largely because cap-ex [capital expenditures] was running at an annual rate of about $50 million in 1998 and now it’s running at an annual rate of about $30 million. So you see the movement and reconstitution of their assets. They’re investing money into intangible capital – investing in brands and in employee training.”
We believe in GaveKal’s “Platform Company” thesis and continue to look for companies playing to this theme. Regrettably, GaveKal (as of yet) does not have a U.S.-based product in which to invest. Hopefully that will change in the new year, for we would like to overweight portfolios along this “Platform Company” theme. However, for our international readers, we suggest exploring GaveKal and its themes.
While strategically we embrace GaveKal’s concepts, on a tactical basis we are not totally convinced the business cycle has yet been repealed. And maybe, just maybe, that is what the stock/bond market began worrying about late last week. Indeed, the downside surprise came last Thursday when, after Wednesday’s upside breakout above their recent reaction highs, the major market indices showed NO upside follow-through and actually closed below their aforementioned previous reaction highs. Our friend Barry Ritholtz termed last Thursday’s action as a “Bull Trap,” and by our definition of bull trap, that may be appropriate. Listen to this definition of a “Bull Trap” from the glossary of StockCharts.com: “Bull Trap: A situation that occurs when prices break above a significant level and generate a buy signal, but suddenly reverse course and negate the buy signal, thus ‘trapping’ the bulls that acted on the signal with losses.” Clearly, if the major market indices “fall away” from last week’s peak into a full-fledged correction (10%+) Barry’s “call” will prove prescient.
Unsurprisingly, concurrent with last week’s stock-swoon was an upside breakout in yields as the 10-year benchmark bond recorded a multi-month “yield yelp” high of 4.9%, causing one Wall Street wag to lament, “Is the fixed income complex telegraphing a re-acceleration for the economy?” As stated, while we are currently not sure about an economic reacceleration, we are sure that the next few months will clarify the situation. Still, the interest rate ratchet, when combined with the “buy signal” we received in early December on the U.S. Dollar Index, “foots” with the stronger than expected economic figures we have seen year-to-date and gives credence to a potential economic reacceleration. Whether these figures are driven by the unseasonably warm weather remains to be seen, but we remain cautious and therefore are adhering to Warren Buffet’s two rules on investing, that being: rule number; 1) Don’t lose money; and, rule number 2) Don’t forget rule number 1!
The call for this week: Year-to-date, the DJIA has gained 24 points, which is not much upside progress for all the bullish banter expressed by the media. Verily, the S&P 500’s intraday high on 12/07/06 was 1418, while its intraday low last Friday was 1417. So despite all the huffing and puffing, the S&P has made very little progress over the past seven weeks. Consequently, it will be interesting, and probably important, to see if the Dow, and the S&P 500, closes up or down for the month of January, consistent with that old stock market axiom, “So goes the month of January, so goes the year.” Still, we pay more attention to the “December Low Indicator” that states, “If the December low is taken out to the downside during the first quarter of the new year – watch out!” For the record, the “December Low” closing price for the DJIA and S&P 500 are 12194.13 and 1396.13, respectively. Also for the record, the Dow, and the S&P 500, have NOT closed below their 50-day moving averages since their July lows. Currently those 50-DMAs are at 12387.53 (DJIA) and 1413.56 (S&P 500). In conclusion, for participants wanting to hedge their portfolios on the downside, the QIDs (QID/53.74) make sense to us, since the NASDAQ is demonstratively weaker than the S&P 500. However, we prefer the idea of buying “call options” on the Volatility Index (VIX/11.13) as an alternative to buying the QIDs, despite the fact that “longing” the VIX has proved to be a losing strategy over the past few months.
ditropan
Forumer storico
fcoa ha scritto:
BUY stà ceppa di c.a.z.z.o !!!
:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: Con questa sera sono long di :
45 t-bond
10 bund
10 opzioni bund call 115
40 opzioni call 112 t-bronx
... e ho i badarelli girati a 20.000 !!!
... zio bon !! Questi f.i.n.o.c.c.h.i ogni volta prima di invertitre devono portare tutto agli estremi !!! .... ed io ogni volta mi i.n.c.a.z.z.o e carico ...
.... sono esauritooooooooooooooooo !!!!
dan24
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:ricomnciato accumulo short euro/yen
40.000 pezzi 157,58....
Fanchiulo A Fleu...e good trip
rapido giretto dell'euro/yen a 158....nun se vuole far mankar mai niente...
ed io altri 20K ...
media adesso 60000 a 157,6825....solita strategia....max esposizione 200K....da accumulare sui rialzi....altri 20K li darò di nuovo se supera allegramente i 158...diciamo in area 158,40....altri 30K a 158,90 etc etc....ma nun credo ci ritornino..vediamo
ditropan
Forumer storico
Bund ... triplo minimo, molto importante ... difficile romperlo così alla quazzum prima dei dati sui payrolls che hanno sempre dato via a movimenti importanti. Difficile non vedere un rimbalzo da quì a giovedì.
movimento in completamento di onda 5 a chi piace elliot ..
T-bronx : è una questione di sequenze e tempi :
Tempi : ogni movimento in sù o giù, rally o draw-down importante dura quasi sempre 2 mesi, ci sono rari casi in cuui dura tre ma la parte più importante della discesa si completa sempre nei primi 2 mesi di discesa o salita ..
... e sul t-bronx sono già 2 mesi che si stà scendendo ....
Sequenze : ogni discesa, anche la più cattiva, come quella avvenuta per esempio nel 2006 che ci portò da 113 a 105,5 (nel giro di 2 mesi e mezzo), si può scomporre in una sequenza di affondi e rimbalzi.
Ogni affondo è composto da un minimo di 2 candele nere ed un massimo di 4.
Ogni rimbalzo è composto da un minimo di una candela verde ed un massimo di 2 (a volte tre, ma tre e meglio con considerare poichè sono rare).
Ogni rimbalzo si rimangia circa metà del precedente affondo.
Sul t-bond con la chiusura di ieri sera si è avuta una sequenza di 5 candele nere senza mai aver visto una di rimbalzo ...
.... inoltre ...
e poi ci sono pure i rendimenti sul 30 anni ... difficile sfondarli così di primo botto, il petrolio è in calo continuo quindi non ci dovrebbe essere più di tanto pericolo da parte dell'inflazione e l'economia è in rallentamento rispetto un anno fà.
movimento in completamento di onda 5 a chi piace elliot ..
T-bronx : è una questione di sequenze e tempi :
Tempi : ogni movimento in sù o giù, rally o draw-down importante dura quasi sempre 2 mesi, ci sono rari casi in cuui dura tre ma la parte più importante della discesa si completa sempre nei primi 2 mesi di discesa o salita ..
... e sul t-bronx sono già 2 mesi che si stà scendendo ....
Sequenze : ogni discesa, anche la più cattiva, come quella avvenuta per esempio nel 2006 che ci portò da 113 a 105,5 (nel giro di 2 mesi e mezzo), si può scomporre in una sequenza di affondi e rimbalzi.
Ogni affondo è composto da un minimo di 2 candele nere ed un massimo di 4.
Ogni rimbalzo è composto da un minimo di una candela verde ed un massimo di 2 (a volte tre, ma tre e meglio con considerare poichè sono rare).
Ogni rimbalzo si rimangia circa metà del precedente affondo.
Sul t-bond con la chiusura di ieri sera si è avuta una sequenza di 5 candele nere senza mai aver visto una di rimbalzo ...
.... inoltre ...
e poi ci sono pure i rendimenti sul 30 anni ... difficile sfondarli così di primo botto, il petrolio è in calo continuo quindi non ci dovrebbe essere più di tanto pericolo da parte dell'inflazione e l'economia è in rallentamento rispetto un anno fà.
